2012 Premiership Odds are out!

[Bosk]

This is the betting market people, it has absolutely NOTHING to do with how good your team is or isnt. Get over it.

Would you care to explain to novices like myself then how such odds are calculated?

 

[Ricmel]

West Coast good value. Swans even better.

Pies at $3.50 is mugs money.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Would you care to explain to novices like myself then how such odds are calculated?

Based on the money being bet - the more money on a team the lesser the odds & vica versa

 

[raskolnikov]

IMHO, Good odds:

Hawthorn
Fremantle
St.Kilda
Sydney

Bad odds:

Collingwood
West Coast
Essendon

With a full season out of Jobe and the increased improvement of players like Melksham, Zaharakis, Hurley and Pears and the return of Dempsey, Winderlich and Hooker I would say those are good odds on Essendon.

 

[kookadog]

Based on the money being bet - the more money on a team the lesser the odds & vica versa

Yeah but the initial prices prior to open betting are calculated by the betting agency.

 

[Mantastic]

Yeah but the initial prices prior to open betting are calculated by the betting agency.

There are other factors too. Collingwood are traditionally well backed by their supporters, so are generally always shorter than they would be in an even market. I imagine all Victorian clubs are also like this in relation to the interstate teams as well.

They also have to factor in perceived improvement. If a team had a young(ish) list this year and made finals then you have to assume there will be some likely improvement.

 

[AllFooty4]

Given the BF predictions in the other thread Hawthorn are set to shorten down a LOT?

 

[blacksockred]

Pretty realistic except it's kinda harsh on Sydney and especially Richmond.

 

[Dangas]

how are the bulldogs ahead of the swans

dazzling

 

[Ron The Bear]

Market is framed to 121%, so there's not going to be a lot of value present. Geelong is unders in my book which has warped the top end a little, with Carlton & Hawthorn the most enticing. But this type of betting - locking up your cash for 12 months for a slender margin - doesn't appeal to me.

 

[Freomaniac]

Juicy odds about the Dons...

you must be Dreaming of the 1993 grand final arent you Pazza?

 

[Blue Heart]

The 2010 Premiership odds are already out.
Who are the overs and unders?

Collingwood $3.50
Geelong $4.00
Hawthorn $7.50
Carlton $10
West Coast $11
Fremantle $17
Essendon $21
Stkilda $21
Western Bulldogs $26
North Melbourne $26
Sydney $34
Adelaide $41
Melbourne $51
Brisbane $67
Richmond $67
Gold Coast $126
Port Adelaide $126
Greater Western Sydney $501


Thoughts?

http://www.sportingbet.com.au/#&&s=Sports-Australian+Rules-2012+AFL+Futures-2538931

I think the Hawks are big oves and the Blues are huge unders !!!

 

[jihg]

Would have to be the shortest we have opened in a long time.

Best bet though is Hawthorn.

 

[Flow]

I'm thinking bout putting some money on sydney, they're always up there.

 

[smiddy9]

GWS massive under!

 

[kriso182]

Would have to be the shortest we have opened in a long time.

Best bet though is Hawthorn.

Yeah the punters have thought the same. Just clicked on the OP's reference Link to check the updated odds since they were first released.

Teams that have come in
Hawthorn from $7.50 to $6
Carlton from $10 to $9

Teams that have gone out
Melbourne $51 to $67
Brisbane $67 to $81
Adelaide $41 to $51
Western Bulldogs from $26 to $29
North Melbourne from $26 to $29
Fremantle from $17 to $19
St.Kilda from $21 to $23
West Coast from $11 to $12
Collingwood from $3.50 to $3.75
Geelong from $4 to $4.25

 

[yeee_haaaa!!!!!]

collingwood are $4 on sportsbet.com.au. that is an awesome price about the best team in the comp. good luck to the cats, great team that they are but even they will admit everything fell their way for most of the season and they took advantage and won another flag. but if they'd dropped a few of those close ones early on, or coll didn't have such an interrupted prep in the last 12 weeks, then we'd be hailing the pies as back to back premiers and they'd be about 2.70-2.80 in opening markets for 2012

but at $4 you can unload on the pies in absolute safety. because by about round 15 next year when they are 14-1 or 13-2 or thereabouts, they will be about 2.30 the flag. you can then jump on betfair and layoff at that price and guarantee yourself a very nice profit regardless of whether they win it or not

 

[witsend]

collingwood are $4 on sportsbet.com.au. that is an awesome price about the best team in the comp. good luck to the cats, great team that they are but even they will admit everything fell their way for most of the season and they took advantage and won another flag. but if they'd dropped a few of those close ones early on, or coll didn't have such an interrupted prep in the last 12 weeks, then we'd be hailing the pies as back to back premiers and they'd be about 2.70-2.80 in opening markets for 2012

but at $4 you can unload on the pies in absolute safety. because by about round 15 next year when they are 14-1 or 13-2 or thereabouts, they will be about 2.30 the flag. you can then jump on betfair and layoff at that price and guarantee yourself a very nice profit regardless of whether they win it or not

With all due respect, I am staggered that a team that was defeated 3 times by Geelong, once by almost 100 points and by 6 goals+ in a GF a mere month later, can start at odds better than the Cats.
We have essentially lost only Ling (a key player granted) but would hope (and I stress hope) to see natural progression from the youth injected last season and from our mid-level players such as Hawkins and Varcoe to compensate.
I would agree that time will eventually catch up with Geelong but I think 2013/14 is a more likely scenario.
One could argue that Collingwood may follow the Chris Scott scenario with a new coach, but Buckley is not a new voice at the club.
Geelong should be, as is usually the case for current Premiers, outright favourites until proven otherwise.

 

[Arwib]

The media don't frame the market.

People who bet frame the market. People who bet live mostly in established football states, predominantly Victoria. They have a set of biases and blind spots owing to this.

Sometimes this means the market overly favours us based on assumptions about us (such as winning at home), but mostly I think we get under-rated in games which are likely to be close. Case in point, I think we were over $3 against the Saints in the elimination final this year. I'd think maybe $2.30 was more around the mark.

That said, we won't be a threat til 2013 or 2014 so it's all academic what odds they're offering for us to win the flag.

 

[candiehappy]

collingwood are $4 on sportsbet.com.au. that is an awesome price about the best team in the comp. good luck to the cats, great team that they are but even they will admit everything fell their way for most of the season and they took advantage and won another flag. but if they'd dropped a few of those close ones early on, or coll didn't have such an interrupted prep in the last 12 weeks, then we'd be hailing the pies as back to back premiers and they'd be about 2.70-2.80 in opening markets for 2012

but at $4 you can unload on the pies in absolute safety. because by about round 15 next year when they are 14-1 or 13-2 or thereabouts, they will be about 2.30 the flag. you can then jump on betfair and layoff at that price and guarantee yourself a very nice profit regardless of whether they win it or not

things didn't "fall" the way of the cats. They made it happen. The only team where not one player played every game. That was deliberate list management. Tweaked the game plan, and certainly knew how to overcome the collingwood press. If collingwood staggered in to the finals injured and underdone then it's their problem. Was Heath Shaw being underdone someone elses fault as well?

I'm sick of the whinging and excuse making. You lost fair and square, just suck it up.

 

[Skeppersap]

collingwood are $4 on sportsbet.com.au. that is an awesome price about the best team in the comp. good luck to the cats, great team that they are but even they will admit everything fell their way for most of the season and they took advantage and won another flag. but if they'd dropped a few of those close ones early on, or coll didn't have such an interrupted prep in the last 12 weeks, then we'd be hailing the pies as back to back premiers and they'd be about 2.70-2.80 in opening markets for 2012

but at $4 you can unload on the pies in absolute safety. because by about round 15 next year when they are 14-1 or 13-2 or thereabouts, they will be about 2.30 the flag. you can then jump on betfair and layoff at that price and guarantee yourself a very nice profit regardless of whether they win it or not

Put your hard earned (or dole) money on it then! It is easy enough to prove. Just scan the betting slip and upload it for us all to see!!!

If it is so certain, you will have no fear doing it.

I might put $100 on the Cats. As Witsend said....it is staggering that the market is as it is. Just shows that there are more Collingwood supporters around to blow their money!

 

[JonoNash]

Market is about right.
Injuries/suspensions/underdone players should be the 2nd favorite.

 

[Good_Burger]

Haha gws 501$

 

[Chris who]

should be $10,000 TO BE HONEST

 

[donbooger]

Hawthorn should come in a bit, I dont see them as any less likely then Collingwood and Geelong.