Position 2013 bargains

[Colin D'Cops]

Nick Lower - Will play every game and easily average 100+. Only 350k

Has illustrated some great DT potential, but will he get enough time in the midfield to reach such heights? Few question marks.

He'll be alongside Boyd, Griffen, Cooney, Cross, Wallis, Libba and Picken. Add Dalhaus, Higgins and potentially Stevens to the part-time mids pile also, and it gets a little full.

You'd know your team better than me, just posing a few concerns.

 

[yogibbear]

Does recognising the right bargain players matter? Personally... you just need players at the right price point and the maximum point loss you'll take is in the range of 10-20 points if you stuff up a couple of the speculative picks. But you can trade them out to whoever looks good at that price point. So if you pick a standard team dynamic with 12-14 keepers, and a bunch of rookies... you'll likely only have < 4 speculative "mid pricers"... so even if they ALL fail, you can trade them all out for zero cost (except not being able to fix wrong rookies). Therefore team structure and representation of price points and ability to have some flexibility to fix early mistakes (i.e. a little cash in the bank to turn a knights into a JJK or a byrnes into a knights etc.) can be a lot more beneficial to your teams growth than risking it all by going down to < $5k left and getting stuck with being forced into trading a mid pricer down to a speculative rookie.

Therefore, when you take a speculative pick, you either need a couple of options below their price, or enough cash to trade them up to another speculative pick in the same price range. Assuming you also may need to trade rookies around for missed bargains vs. nab performances (which always seems to happen with 1 or 2 clangers). Holding $30k may be MORE important this year than in any other year, purely because you MUST take advantage of the extra information having two rounds of scores gives you and those 4 trades you get to use.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Agreed speculative picks don't hold as much as weight as they did previously.

As soon as a mid-pricer shows some hot form during the season, many will make the jump even quicker than before.

 

[yogibbear]

Yeah the key thing will be NOT trading in a hot potato that then spuds it up for the following weeks.. ala Stanton 2012 after Marc Murphy got injured or whatever round it was that we all had to trade a premo to him, or someone else. (In my case, I went for Jobe... and that turned out to be a good decision, considering Jobe was averaging less than Stanton and cost roughly the same at the time, but ended up averaging more).

I'm thinking of key forwards... e.g. Travis Cloke etc. that can smash out 120's against certain opponents and then get 40's. Potentially making you go on the trading frenzy of something like... Martin -> Cloke -> Tippet -> Cloke -> Martin and end up getting the lowest scores from all of them as you chase points.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah the key thing will be NOT trading in a hot potato that then spuds it up for the following weeks.. ala Stanton 2012 after Marc Murphy got injured or whatever round it was that we all had to trade a premo to him, or someone else. (In my case, I went for Jobe... and that turned out to be a good decision, considering Jobe was averaging less than Stanton and cost roughly the same at the time, but ended up averaging more).

I'm thinking of key forwards... e.g. Travis Cloke etc. that can smash out 120's against certain opponents and then get 40's. Potentially making you go on the trading frenzy of something like... Martin -> Cloke -> Tippet -> Cloke -> Martin and end up getting the lowest scores from all of them as you chase points.

Those are the trades that lead to top 6 rankings

I had both and still wasnt working for some reason, i think the team i picked in 2012 was one year to early

Yeh you make a good point, forwards are certainly gonna be like that especially key forwards, however if you get it right the extra trades help massivily

edit yogibbear are you saying you shouldnt pick midpricers from the start as much this year? or less inclined to

 

[yogibbear]

Those are the trades that lead to top 6 rankings

I had both and still wasnt working for some reason, i think the team i picked in 2012 was one year to early

Yeh you make a good point, forwards are certainly gonna be like that especially key forwards, however if you get it right the extra trades help massivily

edit yogibbear are you saying you shouldnt pick midpricers from the start as much this year? or less inclined to

I'm saying you should, because there's a damn good chance there'll be a decent midpricer in every position and even if you get it wrong you're only behind by 10-20 pts or so (assuming you're not completely wrong ) after 1 or 2 rounds and can then fix it. But you better leave yourself with the ability to fix it. i.e. midpricers are no longer a wasted position because you have the trades to fix them. The argument against midpricers always won out because rookies were BETTER, and trades were gold. That is no longer the case when we have a terrible pool of forward rookies (atm, touch wood... nab evidence to prove otherwise) and the job security of our back rookies is probably 1 bad game away from pitiful. (asides from Goodes ) You just need the right price bracketed mid-pricer + enough cash / options at price point to protect yourself if they turn sour.

 

[Keystone agony]

I'm saying you should, because there's a damn good chance there'll be a decent midpricer in every position and even if you get it wrong you're only behind by 10-20 pts or so (assuming you're not completely wrong ) after 1 or 2 rounds and can then fix it. But you better leave yourself with the ability to fix it. i.e. midpricers are no longer a wasted position because you have the trades to fix them. The argument against midpricers always won out because rookies were BETTER, and trades were gold. That is no longer the case when we have a terrible pool of forward rookies (atm, touch wood... nab evidence to prove otherwise) and the job security of our back rookies is probably 1 bad game away from pitiful. (asides from Goodes ) You just need the right price bracketed mid-pricer + enough cash / options at price point to protect yourself if they turn sour.

Yeh i agree.

However the first 2 rounds will be about picking the right rookies if you made mistakes (4 trades) because thats all you get before price changes, so if you missed a golden rookies whos pumped out 70-80+ in his first 2 rounds you better jump before round 3 happens.

Im gonna do what i did last year and try pick the right midpricers and probably pick a few. My strategy really depends on the rookies though.

Quite a few people incl myself will get rookies wrong in the first 1 round because of the way the lockout system is. So those first 4 trades will be important for trades.

Theres always the way where you get a midprice wrong cant quite afford another midprice and drop to a rookie and upgrade elsewhere to ultra premium if need be.

 

[yogibbear]

I'd prefer to do mid-pricer to similar mid-pricer and rookie -> rookie each week as opposed to mid-pricer to rookie, mid-pricer to premium. Second case requires two failures in picks that should have enough previous prior information. You're right that getting the right rookies is much harder as the no. of data points you have, and their rate of improvement can be much more dynamic than established players (which usually are only attractive mid-pricers due to previous injuries, club changes, etc.)

 

[Keystone agony]

I'd prefer to do mid-pricer to similar mid-pricer and rookie -> rookie each week as opposed to mid-pricer to rookie, mid-pricer to premium. Second case requires two failures in picks that should have enough previous prior information. You're right that getting the right rookies is much harder as the no. of data points you have, and their rate of improvement can be much more dynamic than established players (which usually are only attractive mid-pricers due to previous injuries, club changes, etc.)

But doing midprice to midprice and midprice to rookie your carrying 250-300k in the bank. Missing that on a round is costing you 50-60 points for that week. I did that last year having plenty of coin probably avg 250k in the bank last year for first 8 rounds and didnt work so well. Realiszed along with not having Swan captain i was starving myself of some serious points i couldve had and Magic Number was far less last year.

 

[yogibbear]

But doing midprice to midprice and midprice to rookie your carrying 250-300k in the bank. Missing that on a round is costing you 50-60 points for that week. I did that last year having plenty of coin probably avg 250k in the bank last year for first 8 rounds and didnt work so well. Realiszed along with not having Swan captain i was starving myself of some serious points i couldve had and Magic Number was far less last year.

I mustn't have been clear. I'm saying... I'd rather be keeping my mid-pricer structure AND have the ability to trade a rookie if required, rather than be forced to upgrade somewhere else. This is assuming asides from the 1 mistake the rest of my team is fine. If I have two mistakes, then your logic is sound. I'd never be keeping more than 30k in my bank unless I had made two downgrades in a week.

 

[GrandBlue]

Has illustrated some great DT potential, but will he get enough time in the midfield to reach such heights? Few question marks.

He'll be alongside Boyd, Griffen, Cooney, Cross, Wallis, Libba and Picken. Add Dalhaus, Higgins and potentially Stevens to the part-time mids pile also, and it gets a little full.

You'd know your team better than me, just posing a few concerns.

Fair points, but I think one of the main reasons he came to the Bulldogs was to be a regular. Macca said he wanted to inject more experience into the team and considering how young our team is, I don't think he'll have too much trouble cementing a spot.

Add to that, he's a versatile player, capable of shifting both forward and back. With that in mind, I think he'll play all season, barring injury.

 

[Keystone agony]

I mustn't have been clear. I'm saying... I'd rather be keeping my mid-pricer structure AND have the ability to trade a rookie if required, rather than be forced to upgrade somewhere else. This is assuming asides from the 1 mistake the rest of my team is fine. If I have two mistakes, then your logic is sound. I'd never be keeping more than 30k in my bank unless I had made two downgrades in a week.

In my theory you will always have 2 mistakes because you have 2 trades per week.

So did you mean
Trade 1: midprice to midprice
Trade 2: midprice to rookie???

 

[yogibbear]

In my theory you will always have 2 mistakes because you have 2 trades per week.

So did you mean
Trade 1: midprice to midprice
Trade 2: midprice to rookie???

Nope.

Trade 1. Mid price to mid price
Trade 2. Rookie to rookie.

 

[Keystone agony]

Nope.

Trade 1. Mid price to mid price
Trade 2. Rookie to rookie.

I guess midprice to rookie and midprice to premium if all is right is just another possible option.

 

[yogibbear]

I guess midprice to rookie and midprice to premium if all is right is just another possible option.

That requires two failing mid priced picks... which I don't plan on making... but if I do, I'll get on that strategy

 

[azza77]

He's going to be a gun and he does some spectacular stuff at training, but I don't think he'll be AFL-ready yet this year.

Come to think of it, I don't think there are any rookies this year who are worth a look... plenty of ones from the year before looking to breakout though!

Well in that case, how are players like Crozier looking? played 3 games last and struck down with illness. Does he slot straight back into the best 22 or is he on the fringe?

 

[Slipps]

anyone thought about chris newman ? $365,300 playing midfield this year finally....

 

[Keystone agony]

anyone thought about chris newman ? $365,300 playing midfield this year finally....

Source?

Dont they say that every year?

 

[toxic]

anyone thought about chris newman ? $365,300 playing midfield this year finally....

no chance of regular mid-field time, so who is missing out? Cotchin, Lids, Tuck?? I'm sure there are others its just i hate richmond enough not to care who else

 

[leungtl]

Well in that case, how are players like Crozier looking? played 3 games last and struck down with illness. Does he slot straight back into the best 22 or is he on the fringe?

He's not a lock for best 22, but he's definitely in the mix every week when fit.

Just off the top of my head, I think our R1 forward line will look something like this:

Ballantyne Mayne ???
Clarke Pav Walters

The ??? will be de Boer if we need a forward tagger, but if he's spending full time in the midfield then it's probably between Crozier or Mellington.

Silvagni also spent a lot of time up forward in the NAB to throw a further spanner in the works!

 

[Jobe3votes]

Jed Adcock just said on AFL 360 that Docherty is a chance to slot into the backline 4 his debut sometime during the season. Not good news for AFL Fantasy

 

[Keystone agony]

no chance of regular mid-field time, so who is missing out? Cotchin, Lids, Tuck?? I'm sure there are others its just i hate richmond enough not to care who else

So by your admission you have stated that you hate and don not care about Richmond and the post also proved to me you know little about them but are happy to say Newman is no chance to play in the midfield.

Ok

I was silly to think otherwise with Bigfooty.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Jed Adcock just said on AFL 360 that Docherty is a chance to slot into the backline 4 his debut sometime during the season. Not good news for AFL Fantasy

There are still a few others floating around at his price anyway

And that doesnt mean he wont play round 1, who's to say Adock is privy to every machination of the coaches' minds

And if not perfect downgrade target midyear.

 

[Slipps]

Source?

Dont they say that every year?

http://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/2013-02-20/new-role-for-newman

we now have more defenders so he can move up the ground....ricky pettard has been in practice playing off HB so he will most likely get a chance to play move newy up

 

[Slipps]

no chance of regular mid-field time, so who is missing out? Cotchin, Lids, Tuck?? I'm sure there are others its just i hate richmond enough not to care who else

so i would be guessing you dont have one richmond player in your team then ?