List Mgmt. 2013 Draft Discussion

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I can, for one he's a Victorian (look at all the kids wanting to go back home these days), goes to Brighton Grammar (local), has an elite tank, comparable footskills (not saying as good as Aish, just comparable), hasn't got injury history and is a great kid.

I see Kelly as the cream though. St Kilda need to pull a good midfield core together. In the Saints' midfield Steven is becoming hard to tag and apart from ageing stars there isn't a lot there. Kelly will get the hard tag and since he doesn't have an inside game he'll be ineffective. He's the guy you add to an already good midfield to add some outside potency - not someone you build a midfield around.

Aish on the other hand plays both inside and outside and does a lot of things better than Kelly. I just can't see why they'd take Kelly ahead of him.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

I've said it all year I'd be surprised if we got Kelly and all I'm hearing is he's our number 1 choice. Weird.

Well he seems like the type of person Macca would like, very hard worker, seems intelligent.

 

[dogsofwar]

This is stretching my memory a bit, but aren't the knocks on Kelly similar to what Griff had early in his career? A damaging outside player but not a great ability to win his own ball?

I'd say if he comes to the dogs, his mentor would be Griff - and Griff can show him exactly how to develop his game.

 

[Super Hans]

It's pretty amazing to think we got what I would consider our top four players from the last three drafts (Libba, Dahl, JJ, Hunter) all from a rookie list or father son picks. Just goes to show you don't need top picks to get great young talent.

Really makes me want to trade pick four for Collingwood's picks.

 

[dogsofwar]

Just on Kelly again, how is he built? Is his frame good enough to become a big bodied mid (ala Griff)? I think we have a surplus of the smaller types and I'd love to see some tall bodies with big frames and clean skills. Would polish off our midfield. Then it's time to look at finishing off our defense and forward line.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

This is stretching my memory a bit, but aren't the knocks on Kelly similar to what Griff had early in his career? A damaging outside player but not a great ability to win his own ball?

And Jack Macrae last year, didn't seem to have a problem doing so this year. I think a lot of it is just a perception thing, because at U18 level guys like Griff, JMac and Kelly are such good kick/decision makers all of their teammates want it in their hands every time and this result in a lot UCP's.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Just on Kelly again, how is he built? Is his frame good enough to become a big bodied mid (ala Griff)? I think we have a surplus of the smaller types and I'd love to see some tall bodies with big frames and clean skills. Would polish off our midfield. Then it's time to look at finishing off our defense and forward line.

I think the player you're describing will be Jake eventually.

 

[timtamWB]

Just on Kelly again, how is he built? Is his frame good enough to become a big bodied mid (ala Griff)? I think we have a surplus of the smaller types and I'd love to see some tall bodies with big frames and clean skills. Would polish off our midfield. Then it's time to look at finishing off our defense and forward line.

He's pretty lightly built. Without looking, I want to say 183cm, 72 kg?

 

[doggies ftw]

I think the concerns on Kelly are definitely overstated on BF, like Chris25 said in his draft thread, his inside game isn't any worse than Aish, Toumpas, Whitfield, etc. he is very lightly built and I wouldn't be surprised if he did a Macrae and put on 6+ kilos in his first preseason. Has the perfect mentor in Griff already at the club and he offers exactly what we need. It's not like he is soft anyway he just knows his role and plays to his strengths and if the ball is there to be won he will go hard at it. Also he is a big accumulator of the footy and a guy who is as damaging with the ball as he is and racks up that many disposals is gold.

Best case scenario for me is GWS get there hands on pick 2 and take Scharenberg and we get whoevers left out of Kelly/Aish!

 

[stefoid]

Yeah I do a little bit. His body size concerns me the most as he can be pushed off the ball which is why he stays outside the packs mainly. I think his inside game would actually be ok if he was a lot bigger.

I've said it all year I'd be surprised if we got Kelly and all I'm hearing is he's our number 1 choice. Weird.

Contested ball is a skill - its not enough just to 'go in hard' or be a big brute. If kelly doesnt know how to win the contested ball by now, it will take more than a few gym sessions or an attitude adjustment to fix.

 

[Chris Grant]

Well he seems like the type of person Macca would like, very hard worker, seems intelligent.

You're right in saying he's exactly the right type of personality, I just thought Macca liked more player's who are a bit more harder at the contest.

Just on Kelly again, how is he built? Is his frame good enough to become a big bodied mid (ala Griff)? I think we have a surplus of the smaller types and I'd love to see some tall bodies with big frames and clean skills. Would polish off our midfield. Then it's time to look at finishing off our defense and forward line.

That's the main concern for me, his body size. I don't think he has the bone structure to be a big bodied mid and it's why I can't see his inside game developing as far as a Griffen. Plus I don't think he attacks the contest as hard even as a younger Griff did.

I still see him being a very good outside mid with some capacity to win his own ball. I'm certainly not saying he's like a Tutt.

 

[Chris Grant]

Contested ball is a skill - its not enough just to 'go in hard' or be a big brute. If kelly doesnt know how to win the contested ball by now, it will take more than a few gym sessions or an attitude adjustment to fix.

He can, to a degree. Just not to a high level.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

He's not soft like a Lucas or mentally and physically incapable of winning his own ball like a Gaff but it is an issue. He's the kind of player I'd add to a midfield like Hawthorn's or Sydney's but would never, ever take if I were Melbourne or St Kilda.

 

[fronkalicious]

He's not soft like a Lucas or mentally and physically incapable of winning his own ball like a Gaff but it is an issue. He's the kind of player I'd add to a midfield like Hawthorn's or Sydney's but would never, ever take if I were Melbourne or St Kilda.

Doesn't that make him the perfect compliment to our core of 4 contested ball freaks (Libba, griff, smith, wallis)???

 

[Chris Grant]

He's not soft like a Lucas or mentally and physically incapable of winning his own ball like a Gaff but it is an issue. He's the kind of player I'd add to a midfield like Hawthorn's or Sydney's but would never, ever take if I were Melbourne or St Kilda.

Yep, this is exactly how I see it and you did a much better job of explaining it then me

 

[Chris Grant]

Doesn't that make him the perfect compliment to our core of 4 contested ball freaks (Libba, griff, smith, wallis)???

I guess that's why he's at the top of our list.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Doesn't that make him the perfect compliment to our core of 4 contested ball freaks (Libba, griff, smith, wallis)???

See this is where the conflict I have comes from. Kelly compliments our midfield quite well, but there are two points that make me a little iffy:
1. Compare what you expect of a pick 4 with what you expect of Kelly. At pick 4 you want a legitimate chance at someone that could become elite, a star of the future. But how many elite players, in the modern game, can't win their own ball? Think of the best mids in the game at the moment - Swan, Griffen, Jack, Pendlebury, Ablett, Mitchell, Fyfe etc - how many of these can't win their own ball? None of them. You have to be happy with the fact that at pick 4 you're taking a guy who could be a good player but doesn't have as much hope of being elite.
2. When the games get tight - and in finals footy - winning contests are paramount. If you're a point down with 30 seconds to go in the grand final, the ball's inside a contest in the middle of the ground and the opposition - say, Hawthorn - are flooding, do you really want one guy who can't win his own ball standing around on the outside against a guy who can? Further, in these matches he won't find as much space and won't be able to be as damaging - by developing his inside game Griffen became more damaging outside as he could win his own ball and work into space.
He's not a bad pick - and if we think he's best available then we should take him - I'm just completely conflicted.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

I've compared him to Luke Shuey both facially and as a the type of player he can be before I know, but I think it's a good comp, so I'll do it again . You look at Shuey and while he's not that physically imposing or an animal at the contest e.g. Clay or Libba, you'd never call him soft either. But when he gets the ball in his hands he is extremely damaging and has an enormous tank so he can get a lot of it.

 

[funked]

Champion Data have released some numbers to do with contested possession rate in the last two U18 Champs, with Aish having 26.6% of his possessions contested and Kelly 34.3%. Aish's numbers puts him in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane lucas, Toumpas and Gaff. Also said that 30% is where a player might be considered "too outside".

 

[Chris Grant]

Champion Data have released some numbers to do with contested possession rate in the last two U18 Champs, with Aish having 26.6% of his possessions contested and Kelly 34.3%. Aish's numbers puts him in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane lucas, Toumpas and Gaff. Also said that 30% is where a player might be considered "too outside".

That's a really interesting stat and a possible reason why Aish might slide.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Was he still restricted by his injury in those matches?

 

[Super Hans]

Champion Data have released some numbers to do with contested possession rate in the last two U18 Champs, with Aish having 26.6% of his possessions contested and Kelly 34.3%. Aish's numbers puts him in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane lucas, Toumpas and Gaff. Also said that 30% is where a player might be considered "too outside".

Link?

 

[funked]

Link?

Sorry for the general link - not a facebook person

https://www.facebook.com/AFLProspectus

 

[Mutt]

Champion Data have released some numbers to do with contested possession rate in the last two U18 Champs, with Aish having 26.6% of his possessions contested and Kelly 34.3%. Aish's numbers puts him in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane lucas, Toumpas and Gaff. Also said that 30% is where a player might be considered "too outside".

Quality post.

 

[Chris25]

The problem with looking solely at statistics like that, is that you miss the bigger picture.

South Australia had so many inside, contested ball winners that not all of them were able to get a game. James Battersby had to play down back, Trent Dumont played further outside while Peter Bampton couldn't even crack the side. And that's because Campbell Combe, Luke Dunstan and George Hewett were absolutely dominating the stoppages. There was limited room for other players to come in and show what they can do.

Meanwhile, we have James Aish who is an elite player on the outside. Considering the rest of the team, why would they not play to his strengths? Yes, he is an uncontested player. But he is capable of winning his own ball if needed, and he is no worse than Lachie Whitfield in that regard in my opinion. If he were playing for one of the Victorian sides, then that contested possession rate wouldn't be so low and would probably be higher than that of Kelly.