List Mgmt. 2013 Draft Discussion

[stefoid]

The problem with looking solely at statistics like that, is that you miss the bigger picture.

South Australia had so many inside, contested ball winners that not all of them were able to get a game. James Battersby had to play down back, Trent Dumont played further outside while Peter Bampton couldn't even crack the side. And that's because Campbell Combe, Luke Dunstan and George Hewett were absolutely dominating the stoppages. There was limited room for other players to come in and show what they can do.

Meanwhile, we have James Aish who is an elite player on the outside. Considering the rest of the team, why would they not play to his strengths? Yes, he is an uncontested player. But he is capable of winning his own ball if needed, and he is no worse than Lachie Whitfield in that regard in my opinion. If he were playing for one of the Victorian sides, then that contested possession rate wouldn't be so low and would probably be higher than that of Kelly.

cheers Chris.

So it seems that Aish and Kelly are both very good on the outside with Kelly having the edge in endurance and Aish in contested ball and perhaps class, going by what others have written.

Wold that be a fair assessment?

 

[total football]

The level of Josh Kelly's success at AFL level will come down to one thing and one thing only: his commitment to working on the weaknesses and flaws in his game. Just like anyone else.

And from what I've seen and heard, he's one of the most coachable and committed players in this years draft. I have no doubt that if he ended up at the Dogs and under the tutelage of Brendan McCartney that he would leave no stone unturned in his pursuit of excellence.

Contested ball is a state of mind. Just because Kelly doesn't have an 'inside' game now, doesn't mean he won't have one in the future.

I'd take him every day of the week over Aish if it came down to it.

 

[funked]

The problem with looking solely at statistics like that, is that you miss the bigger picture.

South Australia had so many inside, contested ball winners that not all of them were able to get a game. James Battersby had to play down back, Trent Dumont played further outside while Peter Bampton couldn't even crack the side. And that's because Campbell Combe, Luke Dunstan and George Hewett were absolutely dominating the stoppages. There was limited room for other players to come in and show what they can do.

Meanwhile, we have James Aish who is an elite player on the outside. Considering the rest of the team, why would they not play to his strengths? Yes, he is an uncontested player. But he is capable of winning his own ball if needed, and he is no worse than Lachie Whitfield in that regard in my opinion. If he were playing for one of the Victorian sides, then that contested possession rate wouldn't be so low and would probably be higher than that of Kelly.

Totally agree with this - stats need context to paint a more accurate picture. Anyone know how he performed in the sanfl - it might contradict his u18s numbers

 

[Super Hans]

There from the champion data Facebook (obviously) just incase anyone missed it.

Interesting on Freeman, might be a case of combine testing being overrated.

 

[Super Hans]

Ben Lennon at 10, Dannnnnnnn won't be happy with that.

My man Sheed at 4.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

While I love the Prospectus, their player ratings put a huge emphasis on stats. If you look only at stats you'll likely come to exactly the same conclusions as the Prospectus.

Look at Aish - dropped to 7 and the reason given is one that has been addressed by someone who actually watches the games above.

 

[Chris Grant]

I've been questioning my views a bit on Aish lately, but this is what I think. Whitfield has a better inside game, but I view Aish's inside game as better then that of Toumpas'. To put it plainly it needs some work, but I don't think it's a major worry.

I can't see any reason why we shouldn't take him at 4 if available, but I'm worried we might pass. And that's really what's been playing on my mind lately.

 

[Chris Grant]

total football would be interested to hear your list of preferences.

 

[Mutt]

I've been questioning my views a bit on Aish lately, but this is what I think. Whitfield has a better inside game, but I view Aish's inside game as better then that of Toumpas'. To put it plainly it needs some work, but I don't think it's a major worry.

I can't see any reason why we shouldn't take him at 4 if available, but I'm worried we might pass. And that's really what's been playing on my mind lately.

Dom Sheed is the type of player that I can see us taking at #4.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Aish is still the number 2 player in the draft for mine. Has been all year. I personally don't understand the slide (well, not to the extent he seems to be at least).

 

[Mutt]

Aish is still the number 2 player in the draft for mine. Has been all year. I personally don't understand the slide (well, not to the extent he seems to be at least).

He hasn't slid yet Dan.

 

[Chris Grant]

Dom Sheed is the type of player that I can see us taking at #4.

Certainly see it as a chance. But I'm wondering if Grant leaves, could we maybe even go Marsh? I think it's much too high, but maybe the club doesn't see it this way. I haven't heard anything, that's purely speculation.

 

[timtamWB]

Aish is still the number 2 player in the draft for mine. Has been all year. I personally don't understand the slide (well, not to the extent he seems to be at least).

Perhaps it's to do with his injuries? And people get hung up on stats so they say that Aish will slide. A combination of the two IMO.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

He hasn't slid yet Dan.

I just mean in perception; it seems that a lot of respected draft watchers now see him down the pecking order. Of course, as per usual, now that they've changed their perceptions it seems that a lot of others have as well. Strikes me as a bit of a 'sheep following the shepherd' situation. He has his flaws but he's been considered one of the top prospects for quite a while; I see no reason for that to suddenly change.

 

[Super Hans]

Aish>Sheed>Kelly>Scharenberg

I'll be very happy with either of those four. Wouldn't mind Billings or Taylor either.

 

[Mutt]

I just mean in perception; it seems that a lot of respected draft watchers now see him down the pecking order. Of course, as per usual, now that they've changed their perceptions it seems that a lot of others have as well. Strikes me as a bit of a 'sheep following the shepherd' situation. He has his flaws but he's been considered one of the top prospects for quite a while; I see no reason for that to suddenly change.

I haven't watched much footage of these kids and haven't seen any of them play live, so my opinion is perhaps not as well informed as some on here, but for me:

1. Boyd
2. Aish
3. Scharenberg
4. Sheed
5. Kelly
6. Billings

 

[Chris Grant]

I just mean in perception; it seems that a lot of respected draft watchers now see him down the pecking order. Of course, as per usual, now that they've changed their perceptions it seems that a lot of others have as well. Strikes me as a bit of a 'sheep following the shepherd' situation. He has his flaws but he's been considered one of the top prospects for quite a while; I see no reason for that to suddenly change.

I still see him as the number 2 player in the draft as well. It's just I'm pretty certain he's not the clubs which got me questioning why and how. Then to hear him sliding outside the top 5 on top of that makes me really wonder what's going on.

I still can't find a reason why we wouldn't take him, but I'm not certain we will. And I wouldn't be like this if I didn't think the information I was given was genuine.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I still see him as the number 2 player in the draft as well. It's just I'm pretty certain he's not the clubs which got me questioning why and how. Then to hear him sliding outside the top 5 on top of that makes me really wonder what's going on.

I still can't find a reason why we wouldn't take him, but I'm not certain we will. And I wouldn't be like this if I didn't think the information I was given was genuine.

We seem to place a huge emphasis on interviews, and while Aish is certainly no dickhead, Kelly would be the absolute standout interview imo. He also provides exactly what our midfield requires. If our preference is for Kelly over Aish then I imagine it would be the interview that did it.

Unfortunately I'm not expecting Kelly to get past the Saints.

 

[Reptilia]

Bontempelli now 194cm

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Bontempelli now 194cm

Combine heights are 2cm taller than is true.

 

[Reptilia]

Combine heights are 2cm taller than is true.

How come they lie

 

[Aldo]

Does anyone know whether the dogs like Sheed? I find it bizarre that so many people rank him as a late first round selection. He's probably the best performed midfielder of the year and just about does it all. Is the knock on him just the speed issue (and he isn't even that slow)?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

How come they lie

I think they just took inaccurate measurements and didn't realise until after the combine was over.

Does anyone know whether the dogs like Sheed? I find it bizarre that so many people rank him as a late first round selection. He's probably the best performed midfielder of the year and just about does it all. Is the knock on him just the speed issue (and he isn't even that slow)?

Some think he's slow, others think his pace is fine. Some think his disposal isn't damaging, others think it's very damaging. Divides opinion quite a bit.

 

[total football]

total football would be interested to hear your list of preferences.

Preferences re pick 4?

Obviously, first preference would be Boyd. But we all know how likely that is to happen.

After that it's Scharenberg all day, every day. Second best player in the draft in my opinion and out of other club's necessity there's a chance he could get to us. He would be a perfect fit for us. Athletic, skillful and can play anywhere.

After that there's really only a few options for me:

Kade Kolodjashnij. Really like him for much the same reasons as I like Scharenberg. Wins a lot of the ball, uses it well, good size etc and seems like a good kid. Personally, I think he's one of the best in the draft.

Josh Kelly. Has been spoken about at length. Has some flaws, like anyone, but think he will be a very good footballer long-term with the right coaching.

Jack Billings. Maybe the most talented of the group.

James Aish. For much the same reasons as Kelly. I just don't think he's quite as good and being a SA boy is a risk in itself.

Dom Sheed. Not exactly what we need but he's almost as low risk as you can get and early draft picks are as much about not f***ing them up as they are about getting elite talent to your club. If you get what I mean... Plus, I really like the way he plays. Just like Nick Vlastuin last year, he's a guy who just does everything right.

To be honest, I wouldn't consider using pick 4 on anyone outside this group of players. The talent is there in the draft, but with pick 4 its about finding a balance between low-risk and high-reward.

 

[Chris Grant]

Preferences re pick 4?

Obviously, first preference would be Boyd. But we all know how likely that is to happen.

After that it's Scharenberg all day, every day. Second best player in the draft in my opinion and out of other club's necessity there's a chance he could get to us. He would be a perfect fit for us. Athletic, skillful and can play anywhere.

After that there's really only a few options for me:

Kade Kolodjashnij. Really like him for much the same reasons as I like Scharenberg. Wins a lot of the ball, uses it well, good size etc and seems like a good kid. Personally, I think he's one of the best in the draft.

Josh Kelly. Has been spoken about at length. Has some flaws, like anyone, but think he will be a very good footballer long-term with the right coaching.

Jack Billings. Maybe the most talented of the group.

James Aish. For much the same reasons as Kelly. I just don't think he's quite as good and being a SA boy is a risk in itself.

Dom Sheed. Not exactly what we need but he's almost as low risk as you can get and early draft picks are as much about not f***ing them up as they are about getting elite talent to your club. If you get what I mean... Plus, I really like the way he plays. Just like Nick Vlastuin last year, he's a guy who just does everything right.

To be honest, I wouldn't consider using pick 4 on anyone outside this group of players. The talent is there in the draft, but with pick 4 its about finding a balance between low-risk and high-reward.

Cheers, I particularly like the last line there. While I'm not a fan of Sheed I can possibly see him being a back up option for us. As you said, he's not really what we need, but we don't want to stuff this up either with a much riskier option.