List Mgmt. 2013 Draft Discussion

[murphy's twin]

Emma Quayle reckons it is close to certain that we will get Billings at 4.
Thinks kolodjashnij will go to Suns at 5 and that Aish will slip to the pies at 6!!!

She sais SOS loves Kelly and the draft will go like this:

Pick 1: GWS Tom Boyd
Pick 2: GWS Josh Kelly
Pick 3: StK Matt Scharenberg
Pick 4: WB Jack Billings
Pick 5: GC Kade Koladjashnij
Pick 6: COLL James Aish

I can't see it in her twitter???

 

[footyfan000001]

I can't see it in her twitter???

2013 Offseason News ‏@theafloffseason 32m
DRAFT UPDATE Emma Quayle has suggested today that one of the mainstays of the top 5 draft picks this year, could... http://fb.me/2zrw6eZNH

It is a facebook link.

 

[Kelvin31]

Emma Quayle reckons it is close to certain that we will get Billings at 4.
Thinks kolodjashnij will go to Suns at 5 and that Aish will slip to the pies at 6!!!

She sais SOS loves Kelly and the draft will go like this:

Pick 1: GWS Tom Boyd
Pick 2: GWS Josh Kelly
Pick 3: StK Matt Scharenberg
Pick 4: WB Jack Billings
Pick 5: GC Kade Koladjashnij
Pick 6: COLL James Aish

Foot injury has him flying under the radar more so than others but Jack Billings (9) was McCrae's Chargers teammate in the GF win last year. Here they are cheering and hugging after the win (approx 4.30mins)

 

[TempleKelvington]

Ok.....so we pass on Aish? I have a felling that these top few guys are not that special, plenty of horse trading going on make me think that.

 

[footyfan000001]

Foot injury has him flying under the radar more so than others but Jack Billings (9) was McCrae's Chargers teammate in the GF win last year. Here they are cheering and hugging after the win (approx 4.30mins)

Whos the Jet on the wing #14 and the full forward #25??

#25 reminds me of Hurley!

 

[footyfan000001]

Ok.....so we pass on Aish? I have a felling that these top few guys are not that special, plenty of horse trading going on make me think that.

Agreed. That or the teams trading off picks are sick of getting pumped every week and want instant success. (GWS and Melbourne). I think we will get Billings.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Emma is usually in the know about these things, but I still think there is NO chance we don't take Aish if he's there at 4. Let me repeat, NO CHANCE.

 

[GrandBlue]

If we take Jack Billings over James Aish, I'll lose it, even moreso than I did when we took Christian ****ing Howard.

The way I see things, assuming GWS want both Scharenberg & Kelly, they will be trying to offload pick 1 to the Saints for pick 3 and something extra, as there's no doubt the Saints will choose Boyd at #1. If the Saints want to try & be clever and play hardball, then GWS will likely try to do a deal with us, another team that wants to secure Boyd.

Think there's a huge possibility of Aish being available at our pick, and honestly, he's exactly what our midfield needs; loads of class and skill. Why on ****ing Earth would we pass on the best midfielder who fills a need for a guy like Billings, who has spent about 2 seconds in the midfield and has played predominantly as a small marking forward ala Jason Porplyzia? Victorian factor much?

 

[footyfan000001]

If we take Jack Billings over James Aish, I'll lose it, even moreso than I did when we took Christian ****ing Howard.

The way I see things, assuming GWS want both Scharenberg & Kelly, they will be trying to offload pick 1 to the Saints for pick 3 and something extra, as there's no doubt the Saints will choose Boyd at #1. If the Saints want to try & be clever and play hardball, then GWS will likely try to do a deal with us, another team that wants to secure Boyd.

Think there's a huge possibility of Aish being available at our pick, and honestly, he's exactly what our midfield needs; loads of class and skill. Why on ****ing Earth would we pass on the best midfielder who fills a need for a guy like Billings, who has spent about 2 seconds in the midfield and has played predominantly as a small marking forward ala Jason Porplyzia? Victorian factor much?

Maybe he will become a half forward/mid?

 

[footyfan000001]

Callum Twomey ‏@AFL_CalTwomey 1m
Josh Kelly looks like No.2 pick at this stage for GWS. Wouldn't rule out Jack Billings. Giants don't worry about what everyone else thinks.

THIS would be handy too!

 

[GrandBlue]

Maybe he will become a half forward/mid?

You don't use pick 4 on the basis that they'll maybe become a mid when there's a guy like James Aish available, who's already is a dead-set mid, better than Billings and is exactly what we need.

 

[fronkalicious]

Cal twomey has billings clear cut in the top 4, not scharenberg. Interesting.

 

[paulveed]

If the mail is right, Boyd & Berger are GWS bound. Saints want Kelly according to the rumours, so I guess we get Aish. Had someone suggested Aish at 4 a few months...weeks...ago, they'd be told "Not gonna happen..". Can we afford to let Aish slide further for a needs pick and then lament in a few years when the kid is a gun ?

"Can we afford to let Aish slide further?" Not a snowflakes chance in Hell he makes it to P5.
In fact, unless there is something that recruiters are privy to, that the rest of us aren't, the odds of his sliding to P4,
are about the same ....Zero.
For mine, from what I have seen Aish is the most talented player of the crop. Boyd is only ranked higher because he
is a KPF.
Some have suggested Aish is too slight. Prior to 2012, wasn't our best ever draft the "jockey draft"?
Don't believe any of Gilbee, Murph., or Gia. etc were either hard bodied, or in and under specialists when drafted. Nor if
I recall correctly did any of them come with the rep. for class and quality that Aish does.

If the impossible happens, and he does slip as far as P4, I think he will be every bit as good, if not better than any in
that group long term.
With the in-and-unders we have in the mid field already, having Griff, Macrae, Coons, and Aish circling around to receive,
I think our forwards will end each game with bruised chests and sore feet from the kicks on goal they get.

As for the question as to why Aish has slid in the rankings. Has he in the eyes of recruiters? Or is it just some journo.,
and or amateur posters?
If Aish were to slip as far as our first pick, I reckon that our guys will have his number called out in world record time.

 

[Chris Grant]

Like I said earlier, I have a terrible feeling in my gut that we will pass on Aish. I can't understand why we would do it, but I think it's a very real possibility.

 

[LukasTheGreat]

Like I said earlier, I have a terrible feeling in my gut that we will pass on Aish. I can't understand why we would do it, but I think it's a very real possibility.

Our recruiters aren't idiots anymore, if they do it there has to be a reason.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

I've been looking some highlights of James Aish that properly shows his qualities as a player so people can see why dared not pass on him if he's available at four, this is the best I could find. It also includes Billings and shows his abillities along with McDonald and predrafts from last year.

 

[BRG93]

I've been looking some highlights of James Aish that properly shows his qualities as a player so people can see why dared not pass on him if he's available at four, this is the best I could find. It also includes Billings and shows his abillities along with McDonald and predrafts from last year.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Right, sorry.

 

[GrandBlue]

Our recruiters aren't idiots anymore, if they do it there has to be a reason.

Christian Howard, Pick 15.

As of now, I still reserve my doubts on Simon Dalrymple & the recruiting staff. We've been very much hit or miss since he's been in-charge.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Does anyone else think it's possible we are only being linked with Kelly, Billings and Shazz because we rate Aish so highly there's no use wasting our time on him because we think he's a lock to go in the top 3, so its better putting our time into evaluating guys we might actually have to decide between.

I hope it's similar to 04 when Clayton rated Griff as the number 1 pick so he was shocked when he was there for us at 3.

 

[Stringer2Dogs]

The guys that do the AFL prospectus base a lot of their draft rankings from stats and rate Aish a fair way down the order. This is their top 10 ripped from facebook:

Champion Data's Top-10 2013 Draft Prospects
(Based on player quality only rather than club needs)

1 - Tom Boyd
2 - Josh Kelly
3 - Matt Scharenberg
4 - Dom Sheed
5 - Jack Billings
6 - Lewis Taylor
7 - Luke McDonald
8 - James Aish
9 - Kade Kolodjashnij
10 - Ben Lennon

When questioned as to why Aish was down at number 8 this was the response:

Think Aish is a good player and a good user of the ball but we have looked at the correlation between low contested possession rate as a junior and eventual AFL output and if you're too 'outside' as a junior you will struggle to find the same amount of ball at AFL level. His CP rate falls in the same bracket as Cale Morton, Kane Lucas, Jimmy Toumpas and Andrew Gaff.

Aish at last two U18 champs is 26.6% contested - Kelly in same time is 34.3%. From our studies 30% seems to be the cut-off for being too 'outside'

Point has to be made that due to the strength of the inside mids that SA has that there wasn't really room for Aish to play inside/outside BUT he is slight and quite short 183cm and 74kg his best does lie on the outside. Those are some pretty interesting stats and are a bit worrying, I personally still like Aish at 4 if he falls, but I really don't think it's as clear cut as many on here are suggesting.

Also has me wondering what his SANFL contested possession stats are.

 

[GrandBlue]

The guys that do the AFL prospectus base a lot of their draft rankings from stats and rate Aish a fair way down the order. This is their top 10 ripped from facebook:



When questioned as to why Aish was down at number 8 this was the response:







Point has to be made that due to the strength of the inside mids that SA has that there wasn't really room for Aish to play inside/outside BUT he is slight and quite short 183cm and 74kg his best does lie on the outside. Those are some pretty interesting stats and are a bit worrying, I personally still like Aish at 4 if he falls, but I really don't think it's as clear cut as many on here are suggesting.

Also has me wondering what his SANFL contested possession stats are.

Aish had a shoulder problem earlier in the year, which meant less time on the ground, which leads to worse stats.

This is why stats bore me, it's useless to make a judgement using only stats. I've seen him play myself and he's clearly the classiest player in the draft. He was also viewed as the clear #1 pick back in 2012.

 

[the dog's kennel]

Emma Quayle reckons it is close to certain that we will get Billings at 4.
Thinks kolodjashnij will go to Suns at 5 and that Aish will slip to the pies at 6!!!

She sais SOS loves Kelly and the draft will go like this:

Pick 1: GWS Tom Boyd
Pick 2: GWS Josh Kelly
Pick 3: StK Matt Scharenberg
Pick 4: WB Jack Billings
Pick 5: GC Kade Koladjashnij
Pick 6: COLL James Aish

This worries me a lot. Quayle is no hack. She wouldn't be saying these things unless she had an excellent reason to be. Cripes! How many small forwards do we need?

 

[fronkalicious]

This worries me a lot. Quayle is no hack. She wouldn't be saying these things unless she had an excellent reason to be. Cripes! How many small forwards do we need?

Some reasons to draft billings:

1. He's a natural goal-kicker, which we need more of
2. His disposal is elite, which we need more of
3. Commonly regarded as a "match winner", which we need more of
4. Left footer, which we need more of
5. Had an elite level season despite carrying an injury
6. Could play half-back??

 

[Stringer2Dogs]

Aish had a shoulder problem earlier in the year, which meant less time on the ground, which leads to worse stats.

This is why stats bore me, it's useless to make a judgement using only stats. I've seen him play myself and he's clearly the classiest player in the draft. He was also viewed as the clear #1 pick back in 2012.

It's a contested possession rate, it has nothing to do with time on ground. Agreeable that he might not have played as inside as he would have sans the shoulder injury, but it's important to note that these particular stats were taken over the two years. I have not see Aish live like yourself so i can't comment as well as you but i just thought it's interesting that his contested possession stats are compatible with the likes of Morton who in juniors also looked like a classy prospect and was taken rather high. I'll also highlight that I still believe that Aish should go 2nd/3rd in the draft.