Mega Thread 2013 Official Draft Thread

[RichoLedio]

If we win the flag our chances would be low in landing Sheed.

I for one wouldn't give a shit about Sheed then

 

[Calcium Man]

That seems to be Knightmare's opinion from speaking to some scouts/recruiters.

If that's the case i think it might be recruiters trying to hard to outsmart each other, whereas FJ has done well going the solid option i.e. Conca, Ellis and Vlastuin

perfect draft outside of obviously ending up with Boyd, Aish, Kelly and Dunstan would be

1st pick - Sheed
2nd pick - Garlett
3rd pick - Ruckman maybe Darcy Cameron
4th Pick/rookie - Cain
Rookie - Get Willie Rioli fit. Despite what Essendon and Hawthorn think Rioli is a tiger name and needs to be brought back to this club

 

[Wacky Tiger]

Always take the best available. Garlett will easily be the best available at our pick (mid teens)

Yeah im just about ready to take the punt. Whats his speed like?? I still think speed is our greatest need.

Both ways too i might add. Really need someone who works backwards as hard as they push forwards.

 

[Toadvine]

As has been said many times before, What you see on the football field has never been the problem with Garlett.

 

[TheAnt]

As has been said many times before, What you see on the football field has never been the problem with Garlett.

So get Choco Williams to sort him out?
My draft targets would be Freeman, Marsh, Garlett, then from the state leagues O'Hara, Suckling, Cain.

 

[GldGoldy]

Wouldnt mind us having a look at Michael Apeness as a late pick, could be a hidden gem

 

[Damo80]

Wouldnt mind us having a look at Michael Apeness as a late pick, could be a hidden gem

The AFL won't let him nominate for the draft though... Didn't catch the full story, but it's something about his name, and Adam Goodes and Eddie McGuire... ;-)

 

[RichoLedio]

The AFL won't let him nominate for the draft though... Didn't catch the full story, but it's something about his name, and Adam Goodes and Eddie McGuire... ;-)

If true I'm sure the story is bigger than king kong

 

[tigs2010]

My boy Darcy Cameron is making his senior debut for Claremont on fox footy in 10 minutes. Big 18yo ruck whose already quite solid.

 

[GldGoldy]

My boy Darcy Cameron is making his senior debut for Claremont on fox footy in 10 minutes. Big 18yo ruck whose already quite solid.

Interesting you mentioned Darcey Cameron after I mentioned Michael Apeness. Apeness beat Darcey Cameron in the hitouts very easily when Vic Metro played WA. Cameron I suspect will go higher in the draft as he is a more mobile ruck

 

[GldGoldy]

Take a look at this Ape Beast - http://www.sportingpulse.com/assoc_page.cgi?client=1-3020-0-0-0&&news_task=DETAIL&articleID=24267856

 

[tigs2010]

Interesting you mentioned Darcey Cameron after I mentioned Michael Apeness. Apeness beat Darcey Cameron in the hitouts very easily when Vic Metro played WA. Cameron I suspect will go higher in the draft as he is a more mobile ruck

He's an interesting one that's for sure. My only concern long term is at 199cm is he ever going to be able to hold down the no.1 spot. Having said that he'd make a good no.2 ruck/forward. Could depend on what the club plans on doing with Vickery.

 

[TJTIGER]

He's an interesting one that's for sure. My only concern long term is at 199cm is he ever going to be able to hold down the no.1 spot. Having said that he'd make a good no.2 ruck/forward. Could depend on what the club plans on doing with Vickery.

Wouldn't surprise if he grew more, infact the surprise would be if he didn't tigs. How much bigger would he need to be do you think to be genuinely competitive ?

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

Does Richmond still have an internal rule restricting the trade of 1st rounders or did that disappear when Wallace left? Obviously no club will trade a first rounder carelessly these days, but I was wondering if it's still a hard and fast rule.

In any given year there will be a justified incentive to trade a first rounder. But if you look back over 10 years of drafting, the steady income of solid 10 year players means you should sustain 8-9 solid first rounders in the team at any one time.

I see a lot of value to sticking firm in that 10-year perspective of sustaining like-for-like talent.

 

[tigs2010]

Wouldn't surprise if he grew more, infact the surprise would be if he didn't tigs. How much bigger would he need to be do you think to be genuinely competitive ?

Few cms. He may even measure in taller at camp and that would be fine. He's not a super athlete which means at 199 he'd get jumped all over by other rucks.

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

There are well known studies that show it's human nature to value $50 right now as more valuable than receiving $60 next week. Essentially, that human bias is the cause of a lot of lost competitiveness over time.

Here's an exercise in looking at the draft with sustained success as the priority. Now, many people may say there are times where short-term success becomes a higher priority than sustained success, but I will assume the goal is sustained success via the draft at all costs. Trading and free agency, I believe, are safer methods for boosting a club's short-term aspirations, as there is a smaller gap between 'value now' and 'value in the future', which reduces the aforementioned human bias.

Also I fully understand careers are far less predictable than this list will assume, but for the exercise of first round drafting philosophy let's look at an ideal world:


Eg:
2004 - Deledio (12+ years of value)
...
2006 - Riewoldt (12 years of value)
2007 - Cotchin (12 years of value)
2008 - Vickery (12 years of value)
2009 - Dusty (12 years of value)
2010 - Conca (12 years of value)
2011 - Ellis (12 years of value)
2012 - Vlastuin (12 years of value)
2013 - mid (12 years of value)
2014 - mid (12 years of value)
2015 - mid (12 years of value)
2016 - mid (12 years of value)
2017 - Deledio drops off - new young talent (12 years of value)
2018 - Riewoldt drops off - new young talent (12 years of value)
2019 - Cotchin drops off - new young talent (12 years of value)
2020 - Vickery drops off - new young talent (12 years of value)
2021 - Dusty drops off - new young talent (12 years of value)
2022 - Conca drops off - draft new Conca (12 years of value)
2023 - Ellis drops off - draft new Ellis (12 years of value)
2024 - Vlastuin drops off - draft new Vlastuin (12 years of value)
2025 - mid drops off - draft new mid (12 years of value)

Theoretically, from 2004 to 2025, if each first round pick provides us with 12 years of value (ignoring the likelihood that some will not make it, say 1 in 5 will be failures, and 1 in 5 will provide 6-8 years of value), then the maximum years of value we are entitled to is:

252 years of max value.

Remove 1 in 5 as a failed pick, and 1 in 5 as a limited pick, and the estimated value is:

~180 years of estimated value from first round picks.

If we stick to maximising our total years of value, we have a better chance of being more like Sydney in always playing finals and then every 7-8 years we can make a challenge for the flag.

Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn all chose a time to trade picks for required talent, so there is a time and a place. However, you can also use your first rounder on the type of player capable of having an immediate impact (Rioli, Selwood, Jetta) although you can't expect the same quality. If you are making a serious play for Top 4, you always have the choice of choosing an 18yo likely to make an immediate impact over a slightly better 18yo who will take 4 years. That may be a better trade off than trading for mature players, depending on a variety of factors. Geelong traded for Brad Ottens, but that wasn't the reason they have had 7 years of dominance - for that you need a philosophy of sustained success with a very small window of possibility to make a trade on a case by case basis.

Let's be strict in receiving $60 next week and not fall into the trap of receiving $50 today so we can bet all our savings on one race.

 

[GldGoldy]

He's an interesting one that's for sure. My only concern long term is at 199cm is he ever going to be able to hold down the no.1 spot. Having said that he'd make a good no.2 ruck/forward. Could depend on what the club plans on doing with Vickery.

How would 199cm be too small because of course he is only going to grow? He would take a couple of years to develop and compete with the best no doubt but if we look at the top 4 rucks for hitouts it goes like this -
Will Minson - 198cm, 107kg
Todd Goldstein - 201cm, 103kg
Sam Jacobs - 202cm, 105kg
Dean Cox - 203cm, Weight 107kg.

Now we have Michael Apeness - 199cm, 101kg... A couple of years in the system and this kid could be a monster Ape like King Kong. Also keep in mind he is a little rusty with his football skills, they will only get better as he did spend some time away from footy, playing Rugby for the Melbourne Rebels Development Squad (http://www.theweeklyrevieweastern.c...peness-reinvigorated-after-a-season-of-rugby/). We arnt going to find any quick fixes with a 18year Ruck, but give him sometime in the Richmond VFL side and I really think he could be something special.

Im not at any way thinking of him as 1st Ruck, but as a forward with stints in the Ruck much like Vicks is doing now. He has a strong body, great contested mark, good size for a ruck/forward and is a great set shot. What he definitely needs to work on is match fitness and skills, but he does posess an excellent character which we have loved in the past few years at draft time which can be worked on. I see him as the sort of guy that has the determination to suceed.

Of course he is a risk, but every late/rookie pick is a risk, and I definitely see with his upsides its a great risk to bring to the table at Richmond.

 

[theflea]

Does Richmond still have an internal rule restricting the trade of 1st rounders or did that disappear when Wallace left? Obviously no club will trade a first rounder carelessly these days, but I was wondering if it's still a hard and fast rule.

In any given year there will be a justified incentive to trade a first rounder. But if you look back over 10 years of drafting, the steady income of solid 10 year players means you should sustain 8-9 solid first rounders in the team at any one time.

I see a lot of value to sticking firm in that 10-year perspective of sustaining like-for-like talent.

I would think they will given the right circumstances. When that idea was stated it was on the back of us trading away the last 4/5 or there abouts 1st pick. Since we haven't done this in a while I think we would.

 

[LuKe2428]

Okay got a question for people who.follow the draft pretty closely. Say we trade Conca to WCE and get there first pick. What are the chances of getting both Sheed and Freeman with our the West Coast pick and our first round pick? Also would you take them both or would you be better off taking a KPP and 1 of those 2 with the other pick. Other option would be to take 2 midfielders with the 2 picks in the first round and a KPP with a second round pick.

 

[tigs2010]

How would 199cm be too small because of course he is only going to grow? He would take a couple of years to develop and compete with the best no doubt but if we look at the top 4 rucks for hitouts it goes like this -
Will Minson - 188cm, 107kg
Todd Goldstein - 201cm, 103kg
Sam Jacobs - 202cm, 105kg
Dean Cox - 203cm, Weight 107kg.

Now we have Michael Apeness - 199cm, 101kg... A couple of years in the system and this kid could be a monster Ape like King Kong. Also keep in mind he is a little rusty with his football skills, they will only get better as he did spend some time away from footy, playing Rugby for the Melbourne Rebels Development Squad (http://www.theweeklyrevieweastern.c...peness-reinvigorated-after-a-season-of-rugby/). We arnt going to find any quick fixes with a 18year Ruck, but give him sometime in the Richmond VFL side and I really think he could be something special.

Im not at any way thinking of him as 1st Ruck, but as a forward with stints in the Ruck much like Vicks is doing now. He has a strong body, great contested mark, good size for a ruck/forward and is a great set shot. What he definitely needs to work on is match fitness and skills, but he does posess an excellent character which we have loved in the past few years at draft time which can be worked on. I see him as the sort of guy that has the determination to suceed.

Of course he is a risk, but every late/rookie pick is a risk, and I definitely see with his upsides its a great risk to bring to the table at Richmond.

I agree as a 2nd ruck/fwd he'd be a good prospect. I thought you were talking about 1st ruck. There aren't any guarantees he will grow taller than 199cm. But for a part timer that is more than big enough.

 

[tigs2010]

Okay got a question for people who.follow the draft pretty closely. Say we trade Conca to WCE and get there first pick. What are the chances of getting both Sheed and Freeman with our the West Coast pick and our first round pick? Also would you take them both or would you be better off taking a KPP and 1 of those 2 with the other pick. Other option would be to take 2 midfielders with the 2 picks in the first round and a KPP with a second round pick.

Yes you could get both quite comfortably I'd have thought. I think we'd be better off taking a mid with both picks just with the value on offer. I'd also be inclined to take a taller midfielder like Lennon/Bontempelli with one of the picks rather than two shorter guys. I'd go with your last option if Conca chooses to leave which hopefully he wont.

 

[Stylo]

Okay got a question for people who.follow the draft pretty closely. Say we trade Conca to WCE and get there first pick. What are the chances of getting both Sheed and Freeman with our the West Coast pick and our first round pick? Also would you take them both or would you be better off taking a KPP and 1 of those 2 with the other pick. Other option would be to take 2 midfielders with the 2 picks in the first round and a KPP with a second round pick.

If we got West Coast's first pick snaring Sheed and Freeman is definitely possible IMO. Don't think however West Coast will be willing to trade their first pick this year. They'll probably offer us Shepperd or something equally horrid

 

[tigs2010]

If we got West Coast's first pick snaring Sheed and Freeman is definitely possible IMO. Don't think however West Coast will be willing to trade their first pick this year. They'll probably offer us Shepperd or something equally horrid

And Blair would tell them to take a baseball bat to their own arses. Meanwhile working on stealing an even better player back off them.

 

[Calcium Man]

Yes you could get both quite comfortably I'd have thought. I think we'd be better off taking a mid with both picks just with the value on offer. I'd also be inclined to take a taller midfielder like Lennon/Bontempelli with one of the picks rather than two shorter guys. I'd go with your last option if Conca chooses to leave which hopefully he wont.

Do we need taller midfielders? Its not like we have a small midfield.
Deledio - 189
Martin -187
Jackson - 188
Tuck - 189
Vlastuin - 187
Grigg - 190

 

[tigs2010]

Do we need taller midfielders? Its not like we have a small midfield.
Deledio - 189
Martin -187
Jackson - 188
Tuck - 189
Vlastuin - 187
Grigg - 190

I don't think Tuck will be there next year personally. I think he'll retire. I also think Grigg will be phased out in a year or 2. That leaves us with 4. I think the reasoning in my head is that there are quite a few good smaller players in the later rounds so bit worried taking too many similar types.