He also changed his draft order about 500 times.
Exactly. As Knightmare admits himself, his mock draft is in the order that he thinks they will be taken and he changes it according to what he hears about which clubs are going to take who, which, by the end, is pretty much "common knowledge", at least in the top 10.
One prime example is Aiden Corr, who he had at 40-odd about a month before the draft, but once it started to get out that some of the clubs rated him really highly, he skyrocketed up KM's mock draft order to no.12 by draft day and he ended up going at 14.
(I dare say that if we had somehow been able to do a deal with GWS during trade week to get Corr and picks 24 and 43, instead of Lee, for pick 12, that BF and everyone would have likewise gone beserk saying that we "overpaid" for Corr big-time, because at the time we got Lee, Corr was expected to go in the 40's+ on BF, so most would have thought giving up pick 12 for him was insanity, but by the time the draft came around hardly anyone blinked an eyelid when Corr went at 14, because everyone had had time to digest the fact that some clubs rated him really highly by then. If we had somehow done a deal to get Corr and picks 24 and 43 for pick 12 on the day of the draft, everyone would have been talking about what a bargain we got, when if the exact same deal had been done 6 weeks earlier they would have been saying we were robbed!
It would have been the same with Lee had word gotten out that we at least rated him really highly, prior to that deal being done. He would have shot up KM's draft order like Corr and others did and like with Corr, it wouldn't have been seen as any really big deal that we gave up pick 12 for him and picks 24 and 43, but because it happened so suddenly, word didn't get out how highly he was rated and so most think we overpaid big-time. It's worth noting that Lee moved up in Knightmare's "power rankings" quite a bit after that trade was done and that by about the 9th of November he had Lee ahead of all of Jacksch (who ended up going at 12), Mason Shaw, Membrey, O'Brien, Paparone and White in his "power rankings", as I mentioned on this board at the time, so basically he had him ranked as the best "KPF" after Daniher, at that time.)
On the flip side, he also had Mason Wood in the 40's or so about a month from the draft, but then there were a lot of media reports that we in particular were really into him with our first picks and that other clubs were as well (with late first round picks) and so he shot up to 15 in KM's final order, but it turns out that those media reports were off the money and he didn't get picked until the 40's, after we had overlooked him 3 times, for instance.
Another one is Sam Colquhoun, who he had as high as 11 a month or two out from the draft, because he got mail that a club was really into him, but he ended up not getting picked at all in the National Draft.
Then there was Andrew Boston, who he had at 25 a month out from the draft, until he was told by someone who also knows what they are talking about that he was way too high and had tested really poorly at the combine, which saw him slip all the way down to 80 in KM's mock draft by draft day and he also didn't get picked up at all in the draft.
Then there was Spencer White who he had at 50 and Marco Paparone who he had at 66, who both went between 20-25. White has shown heaps for us already in the VFL and Paparone has already played for Brisbane, after killing it on the track over preseason.
Knightmare does a terrific job and gives us a great guide and fantastic info, especially given that he likely has far less background and personal info on them than the clubs do, but it is still just a GUIDE and that is what everyone needs to remember, it is not some sort of sure-thing.
If he was that good that whatever he says is the final word and indisputable, despite presumably having so much less info than the clubs do, then he would surely be heading up the recruiting department at an AFL club. Probably the one with the most money, after outbidding all the other clubs for his services. I think he is good, possibly very good, but not that good.