2014 Brownlow Medal

[happy_eagle]

pls respond ^

Please leave

 

[happy_eagle]

Sportsbet have released a market on who will get 3 votes in a selection of rounds.

Fyfe $8-1 round 1
Goldstein $6-1 Round 12
great value

Will be an effort if Fyfe gets BOG after being subbed in the 3rd quarter
Ruckmen dont poll. Expect Boomer to poll 3 in round 12.

Murphy $6 is good value for Round 2
Ebert 2.80 Round 5 is also decent value

 

[tales129]

scott thompson $2.25 in round 13 against the roos

easy money

 

[happy_eagle]

scott thompson $2.25 in round 13 against the roos

easy money

Brodie Smith may go close, Sloane also played well

 

[tales129]

Brodie Smith may go close, Sloane also played well

banking on the breakout year to go against smith.

Thompson had 30 and is a proven poller

 

[roospur]

Do people think libba is certain to beat mcrae? Reckon mcrae is awsome value!

 

[mfleiter]

scott thompson $2.25 in round 13 against the roos

easy money

brodie smith will take the 3

 

[Prudster]

Selwood $4 on Sportsbet

 

[10571z]

Selwood $4 on Sportsbet

Jumped on Wonder what ablett will be?

 

[EightySix]

scott thompson $2.25 in round 13 against the roos

easy money

cotchin $2.20 R2 vs WB

fyfe $6.00 R1 is worth the punt. clear BOG before subbed 3rd qtr

 

[tales129]

cotchin $2.20 R2 vs WB

fyfe $6.00 R1 is worth the punt. clear BOG before subbed 3rd qtr

that cotchin at 2.20 is the goods

 

[char]

that cotchin at 2.20 is the goods

Disagree. Burnt the ball big time throughout... has a SJ round 4 feel to it if you ask me.

Good luck

 

[happy_eagle]

Disagree. Burnt the ball big time throughout... has a SJ round 4 feel to it if you ask me.

Good luck

Jackson Macrae is better odds in this one at 2.80 I feel

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

Round 19 I like Selwood @$2.50 to get the 3 over Duncan. Hoping the 5FF that Selwood got is enough for the umps to give him the 3 instead...

 

[Sketi]

Anyone like Heppell over Cotchin @ 2.05?

 

[The GOAT]

JPK been hammered late. Into $5 at the tab, started today at $11

 

[Jay-Z]

I like Isaac Smith to get the 3 Round 11 vs GWS - is at $3 currently on sportsbet. Both Smiths (Isaac and Devon) had mid-20's disposals and kicked 4 goals but Hawks won in the end which favours a hawk getting the 3

 

[banana_bus]

How do I get to the round by round markets on Sportsbet guys?

 

[Jay-Z]

How do I get to the round by round markets on Sportsbet guys?

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-brownlow-medal-specials

 

[Tonche]

Time to post my count. I picked the trifecta in order last year, however went bust as I didn't bet on that and instead included Kieran Jack in almost all of my team multis.

Top 10:

J. Selwood 27
R. Gray 26
N. Fyfe 24
J. Kennedy (Syd) 24
G. Ablett 24
M. Priddis 22
T. Cotchin 20
S. Pendlebury 19
L. Franklin 19
J. Lewis 18

Team votes:
Adelaide - Dangerfield 15 , Sloane 15 I think Danger should win it but its too close to call. Scott Thompson slight chance at $5, doubtful though

Brisbane - Rockliff 16, Hanley 8, Redden 7
Carlton - Gibbs 14, Murphy 9 , Judd 8 Safeish
Collingwood - Pendlebury 19, Beams 17 Pendles lots of upside.
Essendon - Heppell 16, Goddard 12, Zaharakis 10 Too short, not touching.
Fremantle - Fyfe 24, Barlow 13, Hill 11, Mundy 10 Raffle. Most upside for Mundy.
Geelong - Selwood 27, Johnson 16, Bartel 11
Gold Coast - Ablett 24, Prestia 11, Swallow 10 Too close to call, Swallow definite overs.
Greater Western Sydney - Ward 8, Treloar 7, D. Smith 6 Ditto here with Treloar.
Hawthorn - Lewis 18, Roughead 12, Mitchell 10
Melbourne - Jones 14, Tyson 12 Not enough value here for mine.
North Melbourne - Cunnington 13, Harvey 12 Be surprised if Cunnington can take it. I've been very generous. Harvey more likely.
Port Adelaide - Gray 26, Boak 16
Richmond - Cotchin 20, Ellis 11, Deledio 11
St Kilda - Riewoldt 11, Montagna 4, Dunstan 4
Sydney - JPK 24, Franklin 19, Parker 17
West Coast - Priddis 22, Le Cras 11, Shuey 10, Kennedy 9 Very tough with Priddis out. Le Cras suspect polling history.
Western Bulldogs - Liberatore 15, Macrae 9

The guys I feel like I have underpolled are:
Pendlebury - Finished on 19 but with 6 other possible vote games. Could easily finish on 23+ votes and top 5 if things go his way.
Rockliff - Such a hard player to pick. Polled 22 last year (I picked 14) and I think I've done it again because I have him finishing on 16 this year and with the amount of 40+ games he had, there's definite upside.
Boak - If Gray doesn't poll as expected - look out! Boak could surge into top 5 contention as there were lots of votes to go around at Port.

Potentially overpolled:
Lewis - Terrible polling history
Gray - The biggest unknown of the count. Could get 15, could get 30.
Cunnington - Have him taking out Nth's votes but everything would need to go right as I've given him 4 best on grounds.

I've had a go at the following:
Selwood/Gray Quinella - $9-10 at most places
Handicap Winner - Gray +3.5 votes on the Sportingbet elite handicap
Trifectas - All combinations of Selwood-Gray as 1-2 with Ablett/Kennedy/Priddis as the third. Can get anywhere from $28 - $126 depending on the combination. Will look at doing a couple of saver bets on stuff like Selwood-Ablett-Gray, Selwood-Kennedy-Gray, Selwood-Ablett-Kennedy.

Smokies
Cotchin top 5 @ $4.50 - Just a small dabble here, doesn't seem to have had an amazing season but was good early and could surprise if Ellis, Deledio & Miles don't poll as expected later in the season.
Priddis top 3 @ $4.50 - Had a great season and polls well. Would need a fair bit to go right but is a chance.

Multis on the TAB:
Group A - SELWOOD $2.75
Group B - PRIDDIS $3.75
Group C - ROCKLIFF $2.25
Group D - SLOANE $3.50
Group E - JONES $3.75
Group F - LIBBA $3.25

Good luck all!

 

[Mudeo]

can anyone not place bets currently on Sportsbet?

 

[Jobe Watson]

Done all my bets, here are my final leaderboards:

2014 BROWNLOW MEDAL LEADERBOARD - TOP 20

.1st - Selwood, Joel 26
.2nd - Ablett, Gary Jnr 24
Inel - Fyfe, Nathan 24
.3rd - Gray, Robbie 22
.4th - Kennedy, Josh 21
.5th - Priddis, Matthew 20
Inel - Johnson, Steve 19
.6th - Franklin, Lance 18
.6th - Cotchin, Trent 18
.6th - Beams, Dayne 18
.9th - Lewis, Jordan 17
10th - Heppell, Dyson 16
10th - Pendlebury, Scott 16
10th - Boak, Travis 16
Inel - Rockliff, Tom 16
13th - Parker, Luke 15
13th - Barlow, Michael 15
13th - Dangerfield, Patrick 15
16th - Sloane, Rory 14
16th - Liberatore, Thomas 14
18th - Martin, Dustin 13
18th - Jones, Nathan 13
20th - Cunnington, Ben 12
Inel - Mundy, David 12
Inel - Deledio, Brett 12


2014 BROWNLOW MEDAL - TEAM TOP 5

Adelaide:
Dangerfield 15, Sloane 14, Thompson 10, Jacobs 9, Smith 8

Brisbane:
Rockliff 16, Hanley 9, Zorko 7, Redden 5, Aish 3

Carlton:
Gibbs 12, Murphy 10, Simpson 9, Judd 6, Waite 6

Collingwood:
Beams 18, Pendlebury 16, Sidebottom 10, Swan 6, Cloke 5

Essendon:
Heppell 16, Watson 9, Zaharakis 8, Goddard 7, Chapman 7

Fremantle:
Fyfe 24, Barlow 15, Mundy 12, Hill 9, Sandilands 9

Geelong:
Selwood 26, Johnson 19, Hawkins 9, Duncan 8, Bartel 8

Gold Coast:
Ablett 24, Prestia 11, Swallow 8, O'Meara 7, Lynch 5

Greater Western Sydney:
Ward 11, Treloar 7, Mumford 7, Smith 6, Greene 6

Hawthorn:
Lewis 17, Roughead 11, Mitchell 11, Hodge 7, Breust 7

Melbourne:
Jones 13, Tyson 11, Vince 3, Dawes 3, Frawley 2

North Melbourne:
Cunnington 12, Harvey 11, Dal Santo 11, Goldstein 7, Gibson 7

Port Adelaide:
Gray 22, Boak 16, Ebert 10, Hartlett 8, Wines 5

Richmond:
Cotchin 18, Martin 13, Deledio 12, Riewoldt 8, Ellis 6

Sydney:
Kennedy 21, Franklin 18, Parker 15, Hannebery 11, McGylnn 9

St.Kilda:
Riewoldt 11, Montagna 5, Hayes 5, Armitage 3, Jones 3

West Coast:
Priddis 20, Kennedy 9, Shuey 9, LeCras 8, Rosa 6

Western Bulldogs:
Liberatore 14, Macrae 11, Boyd 7, Griffen 6, Dahlhaus 5

 

[McLeodMagic]

I really hope Barlow polls well.
Got him to win group E @4.50 at the TAB

 

[laam]

bets done, here are my votes

Position Name Min Max Expected Team
1 Fyfe, Nathan 17 37 26 Fremantle
2 Ablett, Gary Jnr 19 28 25 Gold Coast
3 Selwood, Joel 19 30 23 Geelong
4 Priddis, Matthew 11 31 22 West Coast
5 Gray, Robbie 13 34 20 Port Adelaide
6 Johnson, Steve 15 23 19 Geelong
7 Beams, Dayne 11 20 18 Collingwood
8 Kennedy, Josh P. 10 32 18 Sydney
9 Pendlebury, Scott 9 26 17 Collingwood
10 Barlow, Michael 9 22 17 Fremantle
11 Lewis, Jordan 7 23 17 Hawthorn
12 Cotchin, Trent 9 25 16 Richmond
13 Parker, Luke 11 24 15 Sydney
14 Franklin, Lance 9 22 15 Sydney
15 Boak, Travis 9 20 15 Port Adelaide
16 Tyson, Dom 5 18 14 Melbourne
17 Sloane, Rory 12 21 14 Adelaide
18 Harvey, Brent 9 22 14 North Melbourne
19 Dangerfield, Patrick 9 19 14 Adelaide
20 Mitchell, Sam 5 16 14 Hawthorn

Adelaide
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Sloane, Rory 12 21 14
Dangerfield, Patrick 9 19 14
Smith, Brodie 2 15 11
Jacobs, Sam 7 16 10
Thompson, Scott 4 12 8
Brisbane
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Rockliff, Tom 5 22 12
Zorko, Dayne 2 16 10
Hanley, Pearce 5 17 9
Redden, Jack 4 9 6
Martin, Stefan 1 8 3
Carlton
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Murphy, Marc 10 20 12
Gibbs, Bryce 6 19 12
Simpson, Kade 5 14 10
Waite, Jarrad 5 6 6
Yarran, Christopher 2 7 5
Collingwood
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Beams, Dayne 11 20 18
Pendlebury, Scott 9 26 17
Sidebottom, Steele 7 16 11
Swan, Dane 3 7 4
Elliott, Jamie 2 8 4
Essendon
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Heppell, Dyson 7 17 13
Goddard, Brendon 4 21 10
Watson, Jobe 7 11 9
Zaharakis, David 5 14 8
Chapman, Paul 2 8 6
Fremantle
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Fyfe, Nathan 17 37 26
Barlow, Michael 9 22 17
Hill, Stephen 6 16 12
Sandilands, Aaron 4 10 7
Neale, Lachie 4 11 7

Geelong
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Selwood, Joel 19 30 23
Johnson, Steve 15 23 19
Hawkins, Tom 7 12 10
Duncan, Mitchell 6 16 10
Bartel, Jimmy 5 11 7
Gold Coast
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Ablett, Gary Jnr 19 28 25
Prestia, Dion 10 18 11
Swallow, David 4 14 8
O'Meara, Jaeger 2 9 8
Bennell, Harley 3 8 5
Greater Western Sydney
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Ward, Callan 5 21 10
Treloar, Adam 6 15 10
Smith, Devon 2 12 7
Mumford, Shane 2 9 7
Greene, Toby 2 10 5

Hawthorn
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Lewis, Jordan 7 23 17
Mitchell, Sam 5 16 14
Roughead, Jarryd 7 14 9
Smith, Isaac 4 10 7
Burgoyne, Shaun 5 7 7
Melbourne
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Tyson, Dom 5 18 14
Jones, Nathan 6 22 9
Dunn, Lynden 1 5 5
Vince, Bernie 2 4 3
Frawley, James 2 3 3
North Melbourne
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Harvey, Brent 9 22 14
Dal Santo, Nick 5 18 10
Cunnington, Ben 5 11 9
Greenwood, Levi 3 13 7
Goldstein, Todd 5 10 7

Port Adelaide
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Gray, Robbie 13 34 20
Boak, Travis 9 20 15
Ebert, Brad 5 15 10
Hartlett, Hamish 5 16 8
Wines, Oliver 3 10 7

Richmond
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Cotchin, Trent 9 25 16
Deledio, Brett 7 21 12
Martin, Dustin 5 19 11
Riewoldt, Jack 6 11 8
Ellis, Brandon 4 14 7
St Kilda
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Riewoldt, Nick 11 13 12
Hayes, Lenny 3 11 6
Montagna, Leigh 2 7 3
Stanley, Rhys 1 2 2
Steven, Jack 0 4 1
Sydney
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Kennedy, Josh P. 10 32 18
Parker, Luke 11 24 15
Franklin, Lance 9 22 15
Hannebery, Daniel 9 18 13
McGlynn, Ben 5 16 10
West Coast
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Priddis, Matthew 11 31 22
Shuey, Luke 5 18 13
Kennedy, Joshua 9 12 11
Rosa, Matthew 3 7 5
Masten, Chris 3 6 5
Western Bulldogs
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Liberatore, Thomas 8 17 13
Macrae, Jackson 8 17 11
Boyd, Matthew 4 12 8
Dahlhaus, Luke 3 8 7
Griffen, Ryan 2 11 5

And these are the votes from my model

Position Name Min Max Expected Team
1 Fyfe, Nathan 19 34 27 Fremantle
2 Gray, Robbie 19 33 27 Port Adelaide
3 Ablett, Gary Jnr 23 28 26 Gold Coast
4 Rockliff, Tom 17 26 24 Brisbane
5 Selwood, Joel 14 30 22 Geelong
6 Beams, Dayne 16 26 21 Collingwood
7 Priddis, Matthew 13 23 21 West Coast
8 Franklin, Lance 17 27 21 Sydney
9 Johnson, Steve 14 23 20 Geelong
10 Boak, Travis 13 24 19 Port Adelaide
11 Cotchin, Trent 10 25 18 Richmond
12 Kennedy, Josh P. 12 25 17 Sydney
13 Lewis, Jordan 9 25 17 Hawthorn
14 Gibbs, Bryce 8 26 16 Carlton
15 Martin, Dustin 10 21 16 Richmond
16 Pendlebury, Scott 7 22 15 Collingwood
17 Parker, Luke 13 22 15 Sydney
18 Barlow, Michael 7 24 14 Fremantle
19 Deledio, Brett 8 20 14 Richmond
20 Cunnington, Ben 10 15 14 North Melbourne

Adelaide
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Dangerfield, Patrick 9 19 12
Sloane, Rory 9 11 10
Thompson, Scott 4 13 7
Walker, Taylor 5 6 6
Smith, Brodie 2 8 5
Brisbane
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Rockliff, Tom 17 26 24
Zorko, Dayne 7 12 8
Hanley, Pearce 7 10 7
Redden, Jack 3 8 5
Bewick, Rohan 1 3 3
Carlton
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Gibbs, Bryce 8 26 16
Murphy, Marc 6 16 10
Waite, Jarrad 4 7 6
Simpson, Kade 6 7 6
Judd, Chris 1 9 6
Collingwood
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Beams, Dayne 16 26 21
Pendlebury, Scott 7 22 15
Sidebottom, Steele 7 16 10
Swan, Dane 2 11 6
Cloke, Travis 4 7 6
Essendon
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Heppell, Dyson 9 22 14
Watson, Jobe 10 16 12
Zaharakis, David 6 12 9
Goddard, Brendon 7 12 9
Chapman, Paul 4 10 6
Fremantle
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Fyfe, Nathan 19 34 27
Barlow, Michael 7 24 14
Neale, Lachie 6 14 9
Mundy, David 3 17 9
Hill, Stephen 7 17 9

Geelong
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Selwood, Joel 14 30 22
Johnson, Steve 14 23 20
Hawkins, Tom 6 10 7
Duncan, Mitchell 5 12 7
Bartel, Jimmy 4 10 7
Gold Coast
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Ablett, Gary Jnr 23 28 26
Prestia, Dion 8 18 12
Lynch, Thomas 5 13 10
Swallow, David 6 15 9
Bennell, Harley 4 10 5
Greater Western Sydney
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Ward, Callan 7 17 10
Smith, Devon 6 9 9
Treloar, Adam 5 14 8
Greene, Toby 3 9 6
Shiel, Dylan 2 6 5

Hawthorn
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Lewis, Jordan 9 25 17
Roughead, Jarryd 9 19 11
Hodge, Luke 8 15 9
Gunston, Jack 8 11 9
Rioli, Cyril 4 8 7
Melbourne
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Tyson, Dom 10 22 13
Jones, Nathan 3 18 13
Vince, Bernie 5 13 7
Frawley, James 1 3 2
Dawes, Chris 1 3 2
North Melbourne
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Cunnington, Ben 10 15 14
Harvey, Brent 9 18 13
Greenwood, Levi 6 16 12
Dal Santo, Nick 5 15 7
Ziebell, Jack 3 7 6

Port Adelaide
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Gray, Robbie 19 33 27
Boak, Travis 13 24 19
Wines, Oliver 2 11 8
Westhoff, Justin 5 11 7
Schulz, Jay 4 9 7

Richmond
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Cotchin, Trent 10 25 18
Martin, Dustin 10 21 16
Deledio, Brett 8 20 14
Riewoldt, Jack 6 12 8
Ellis, Brandon 5 11 7
St Kilda
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Riewoldt, Nick 9 14 11
Montagna, Leigh 7 12 10
Armitage, David 3 10 6
Dunstan, Luke 3 5 5
Steven, Jack 2 2 2
Sydney
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Franklin, Lance 17 27 21
Kennedy, Josh P. 12 25 17
Parker, Luke 13 22 15
Hannebery, Daniel 6 17 10
McGlynn, Ben 6 10 8
West Coast
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Priddis, Matthew 13 23 21
Shuey, Luke 6 19 10
Lecras, Mark 6 11 10
Kennedy, Joshua 9 12 10
Rosa, Matthew 0 6 5
Western Bulldogs
Top 5 Min Max Expected
Liberatore, Thomas 10 19 13
Boyd, Matthew 7 12 10
Macrae, Jackson 5 14 7
Griffen, Ryan 5 14 7
Dahlhaus, Luke 3 8 5

Good luck to everyone

 

[bisazc887]

The could be wrong but id favour pendles over beams