I looked at GWS's squad going forward including possible new recruits and the quality they have compiling will blow a normal salary cap by a massive and I mean massive margin as soon as the players get near FA and market rates. They are going to have to trade players out in the future. Bulldogs are playing a very smart game. I am predicting GWS win a premiership possibly by 2016 even though it sounds ridiculously early! This also means some Gold Coast players will look to get out to before hand when GWS surges past them. So when looking at draftees RFC needs to consider who we can get in the future from trades and FA as well!
BTW we must go heavy in this draft. The more draftees the better!
I don't necessarily think that GWS will win by 2016, I actually think GC have a better list - though that's another argument for another time.
But you are right about the contracts for these young players and that we have to go 'heavy' in this draft. As soon as free agency comes in, it becomes more and more like a property market. The next big contract will be based on the previous big contract. As stated before, the rumour around those in the know at the kennel is that after Boyd's massive contract, Bontempelli may sit down and say 'what are you going to do for me?'
As soon as free agency hit, it becomes closer to a free-for-all. You look at other major sporting associations in which Free Agency plays apart (NBA and NFL) and you
cannot be successful without good young players - you need quality on small dollar contracts which only occurs for either veterans, players who improve a ridiculous amount or rookies. The last option is usually the most likely - though you realistically need players from each column.
(NB: FOR an example, the NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard of the San Antonio Spurs is still on his rookie contract - circa $3 million - he is the 8th highest paid player on the team THIS season - would have been lower last season).
It is maybe why we are seeing ruckman slip more often now than in the last few years (Luenberger, Ryder, Kruezer, Longer all top 10 draft picks versus Grundy slipping, and now possibly Wright) because with the sub, most teams only play 1 genuine ruckman. But also, they take longer to develop (as you say
Mr Magic ) coupled with the majority of rookie contracts being 2 years in the length. You are not going to be able to jump up the ladder drastically from say the top 10 if you don't have a player who has an impact on their rookie contract.
I think it is why we have publically stated we are 'invested' in this draft. If we go and re-sign up the out-of-contract players (Cotchin, Rance and Dusty would all demand more money) and we sign up another big name free agent (for an example say Dangerfield) you do not have a lot of money to move around with to lift up the bottom part of your list (say 18-28 players). If those players can be either veterans or rookies (thus on lesser dollars) it makes it us that much more deeper.
Case in point. Hawthorn had a bunch of ex-listed players (Cheney, Ceglar, Simpkin etc), but a bunch of younger players. Look at Langford, Litherland and Hartung all of whom played significant minutes in the season this year.
All of this in a round about way to say that we have to nail the draft. I am talking myself into NOT taking Wright the more we discuss this Mr Magic.