2014 Draft Discussion

[Nuggo]

I reckon you'd see an equivalent sort of relative disparity across all rounds of the draft. This would merely tell us what we already know... quality key forwards are a rarity full stop.

Pretty much. But blowing an early draft pick stings that bit more.

 

[SizeMatters]

Notice to AFL recruiters and knowledgable AFL draft watchers everywhere. Contrary to your own good judgment Size Matters says Wright can't run and therefore sucks and you are all wrong.

Everyone wrong cept Size Matter okey dokey?

I never said he sucked... I just said I would prefer to take best available mid over Wright or take McCartin if he was somehow available. One of the reasons being was his poor athleticism. I've seen clubs not recruit guns because of this very reason one almost being Tom Rockliff so they do make mistakes too you know.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Listening to SEN the other day over the last ten years for first round draft picks in and under players have a strike rate of approx 80% where as key position are only about 30%. This could play on the minds of some recruiters seeing a decent KP fall this year.

Interesting stat, I think we have seen the last of ruckman going early, and I think a Tall forward would have to be an absolute sure gun to be picked high. I wonder if recruiters start thinking wright is more a ruck if they will rate him top 10 on the boards.

 

[Swanny10]

I never said he sucked... I just said I would prefer to take best available mid over Wright or take McCartin if he was somehow available. One of the reasons being was his poor athleticism. I've seen clubs not recruit guns because of this very reason one almost being Tom Rockliff so they do make mistakes too you know.

So you are saying we shouldn't take Wright because he's not athletic enough. But on the other hand recruiters often make mistakes by not selecting players who may not super athletes but have great natural footy ability. Like him....

 

[Nuggo]

Interesting stat, I think we have seen the last of ruckman going early, and I think a Tall forward would have to be an absolute sure gun to be picked high. I wonder if recruiters start thinking wright is more a ruck if they will rate him top 10 on the boards.

Grundy could be good evidence of this.

 

[Panthera]

I think the draft camp results will count for a lot more than in previous seasons with there being no certain pick #1 etc.

If, for example, Peter Wright produces positive results in tests like the shuttle run, agility and repeat sprints; he could easily still go #1 (especially if McCartin's results are a heap worse in comparison).

Can't wait for all this football crap to be over so the off-season can begin

 

[SizeMatters]

So you are saying we shouldn't take Wright because he's not athletic enough. But on the other hand recruiters often make mistakes by not selecting players who may not super athletes but have great natural footy ability. Like him....

you called me out for being an "AFL scout" so I guess you are too huh?

 

[Caiphus]

I would say that since a division 2 mid is classified as one of the best mid talents in the draft and that highly rated talls didn't set the house on fire during the champs would be more of an indictment of the lack of top line mids. Best available is best available...

 

[Dan12]

Listening to SEN the other day over the last ten years for first round draft picks in and under players have a strike rate of approx 80% where as key position are only about 30%. This could play on the minds of some recruiters seeing a decent KP fall this year.

And the vast majority of high quality key forwards in the comp have been drafted in the first round. Elite mids are drafted from lower picks pretty regularly, but that certainly isn't the case for key forwards.

 

[Swanny10]

you called me out for being an "AFL scout" so I guess you are too huh?

No and I'm definitely not but unlike you I've actually watched him play a few games of footy so at least I've got something to base an opinion on. But it's more the general consensus that he has footy ability rather than purely my opinion.

 

[Swanny10]

Grundy could be good evidence of this.

True. In hindsight though I would think quite a few of those teams that passed on him would probably regret it and may do so doubly in 2-3 years time. Massive steal.

 

[SizeMatters]

No and I'm definitely not but unlike you I've actually watched him play a few games of footy so at least I've got something to base an opinion on. But it's more the general consensus that he has footy ability rather than my purely my opinion.

I wouldn't have guessed. You disagreed with me concerning his athletic abilities though?
Others in the drafting board have said he isn't athletically gifted and I believe them as I know that players of that height and build are very much unlikely to be athletic in junior football. That 10 second video is all I needed to confirm my opinion.

 

[carnthemlions]

I honestly don't give a shit who he was running against, could have been Bolt for all I care. I just just pointing out that his action was poor, was not a smooth and energy conserving in any way. Would struggle to play ruck at AFL level and I have doubt over his mobility and smarts to play as the target forward (compared to McCartin for instance). Also the taller and larger draftee players seem to get injured a lot more frequent which is what we don't want.

He was trying to run down a very quick player.
How does conserving energy factor into it at all?

Hourly basis POB's.

I'm struggling to get my head around how some people have gone from "we need pick 1 to get a KPF" to "let's draft a mid cuz all the KPFs aren't good enough"

So I take it the collective view of the top draftees will continue to swing from one extreme to the other on a near weekly basis?

"I only saw this one under 18's game, but we definitely should/shouldn't draft player x because player x looked fast/slow/fat/short/tall/skinny(well, I think it was him anyway. Maybe I just got the numbers mixed up)."

 

[carnthemlions]

I wouldn't have guessed. You disagreed with me concerning his athletic abilities though?
Others in the drafting board have said he isn't athletically gifted and I believe them as I know that players of that height and build are very much unlikely to be athletic in junior football. That 10 second video is all I needed to confirm my opinion.

 

[Swanny10]

I wouldn't have guessed. You disagreed with me concerning his athletic abilities though?
Others in the drafting board have said he isn't athletically gifted and I believe them as I know that players of that height and build are very much unlikely to be athletic in junior football. That 10 second video is all I needed to confirm my opinion.

I don't think he's the terrible athlete you are making out that's for sure. He is no Natanui but he probably already has a greater aerobic capacity so it depends on how you judge an athlete I suppose.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Yeah, if Wright has the endurance to lead all day long, he can make up for a lack of pace. Worked for Brown.

Inb4 someone accuses me of calling Wright the next Brown.

 

[Swanny10]

Yeah, if Wright has the endurance to lead all day long, he can make up for a lack of pace. Worked for Brown.

Inb4 someone accuses me of calling Wright the next Brown.

Wright takes a lot of uncontested marks which points to good work rate and from what I've seen this is the reason. I still wouldn't call him slow. Not a big leap though.

 

[carnthemlions]

Yeah, if Wright has the endurance to lead all day long, he can make up for a lack of pace. Worked for Brown.

Inb4 someone accuses me of calling Wright the next Brown.

"I heard from a reliable source that Wright will be the next Jonathan Brown except a lot taller."

 

[Panthera]

Yeah, if Wright has the endurance to lead all day long, he can make up for a lack of pace. Worked for Brown.

Inb4 someone accuses me of calling Wright the next Brown.

In round 4 of the Championships (a win vs the eventual winners SA) he had 29 hit-outs in the ruck, 16 possessions, 10 marks and kicked 3 goals. Gotta do some serious running to get those stats

 

[Swanny10]

In round 4 of the Championships (a win vs the eventual winners SA) he had 29 hit-outs in the ruck, 16 possessions, 10 marks and kicked 3 goals. Gotta do some serious running to get those stats

Yeah not bad for a bloke who can't run for shit !

 

[Panthera]

Yeah not bad for a bloke who can't run for shit !

Apart from Buddy, not many KPF would be able to get anywhere near catching a zippy midfielder running down the wing

 

[Lace Out]

If Wright was "athletic" ,at his size,there'd be more talk of him being number one than there was about Boyd or Patton.From what I know he is a huge natural footballer who can mark,kick goals and play in the ruck.Not a bad base.Compare that to Sir William Longer.Of course we can get a near certainty lock and load mid but we just don't have the luxury at the moment.More risk with the big fellas but one we have to take.

 

[rusty08]

Jumping at shadows a few are. Let's wait and see how the season pans out. Didn't bontempelli hit his straps after the champs? Good kpp are a dime a dozen. If our recruiters like one of the few big lads that are being talked up, I'm fine with that. Imagine if we passed on say Wright, and and turned out to be a gun at Carlton! I'd be physically I'll. I know it's horses for courses with mids also but there a few more of them to go around.
As hard as it is, I think we need to get brown out of our mind. Once a generation player.
My preference is mccartin as he seems the most genuine of the forwards, but a 2m kid who can take a grab a kick a mile, seems ok to me.
Who knows what pick we'll get next year, it might be around the 7 or 8, history says the quality kpp go before then. How long do we wait?

 

[jjami15]

Personally, I'm gunshy with taking Wright as from reports and watching the last two games he was played as a ruckman and after the Longer debacle I think that taking a ruckman so early would be a mistake. The majority of the comp now take them late or trade them from other teams. If he was the best talent at our pick then so be it but I would still be quite hesitant. Not overly taken with this crop this year apart from the evenness which should go deep. Would love McCartin but I think everyone has resigned themselves that he's going to go to StKilda. Is Wright a pick 2? Don't know but at this stage last year Scharenberg was rated as going pick 2 and he went at 6 and with this years draft there is no definite pick 1 either so there will be a lot of conjecture to come. Just hope the club does their due diligence.

 

[acuguy]

It is going to be a bloody interesting draft! From the little I have seen of Wright I would definitely pass on him. We have to look at our current structures. Very unlikely Wright when bulk is added to his frame will have the agility and pace to play as a forward/ruck. It will be the other way around. We don't need this type of player because we have invested in Luey, Martin and West. All have shown enough to say they will be able to cover the ruck and forward/ ruck role.

We do need an out and out key forward. McCartin is the clear choice. If he goes before our pick we cannot be lured into picking the next best tall. To be a future finals team we need 5 out and out gun mids. Currently you could argue we have Rockliff as one, I think we all believe Hanely, Rich and Aish could give us 4. We need another gun mid!

I have Mayes as a 3rd tall forward. I think with a damaging midfield, Merrett up forward with Martin and Mayes we have a serviceable forward line giving us options. Obviously Martin's ability to transfer his great form into the forward line has a lot of bearing on this! I would prefer us to get the best mid in the draft and really put together a package for a developed key forward in the next 2 years. There are plenty of options in Boyd, Cameron, Lynch, Day, Dixon, Patton and Tomlinson.