List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Discussion

[Skippos]

Our recruiters seem to like guys who can win their own ball on the inside and outside and play multiple positions. I don't think their are many that fit into that in the 2nd round. Caleb Hislop is one our recruiting staff might, ticks a lot of boxs for what we are trying to build. Has a little to work on disposal wise but not as much as some.

Yeah I agree hence why I went KPP (again!). they're either genuine insiders (Neal-Bullen/Bampton) types or way too outside (Langford/Menadue) types.

Nelson was the closest and with his height and versatility he was a strong consideration but he's just another inside leaning player with an outside game...think you've got enough of them. Wanted an outside player with an inside game not the other way round...this draft isn't solid for outside leaning mids unfortunately

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Perhaps based on some BF opinions, however he is a non private school boy at a non descript school, playing TAC football for a historically low draft club in the Jets. Spoke to a couple of recruiters early in the year about the Jets in general, he had been best player in the 3 practice games against other TAC sides and followed up BOG in the first 2 TAC cup games and he was rated first ahead of Duggan and Ellis by both recruiters.
Form has been consistent since then without being quite as outstanding.

Fair enough, but I can only give my own opinion (that is, a BF member) from what I've seen. Not much point in me re-hashing others' opinions. To me there's significant risk involved with taking a player that has Menadue's attributes that early. Not doubting he's a good player, and his athleticism and height will no doubt catch the eyes of recruiters, I just see others as having a more balanced game. Could definitely be proven wrong if he's taken early and shows that he was absolutely worth it, but right or wrong like to put my own two cents out there.

Have it on good authority that he's rated far higher on here than by those in the know. I was tempted to pick him but at 100kg already his performances at junior level aren't through skill but just being that much bigger than the opposition and are unlikely to translate. A bit Ryan Willits-esque who was the same kind of huge power forward at junior level with prolific hauls but ended up looking a spud at AFL level

Interesting. Seems to be a pretty big gap between those that rate him and those that don't; there's not a lot of middle ground I've found. I can definitely see the knocks on him, especially re: his athleticism and defensive presence, but I see him having some transferrable skills that could see him have an impact at AFL level. Funnily enough I actually haven't seen his games when he's kicked the big hauls so it's definitely his attributes rather than his stats winning me over. One of many that have a really, really wide draft range this year I reckon, could go pretty much anywhere outside of the top 15.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I think you have our needs pretty right. I know Howard, and possibly Fuller have put a few on here off SA players as options for us. Also, since BMac arrived we do seem to have had a tendency to draft predominantly Victorians. But gee, if you go through our list over recent years I think we probably have more SA's than most clubs. I have no dramas with our picking players from SA, as there seems to be far less "go home" factor with them, than say lads from WA.

Key back, key forward, outside mid, and offensive running back, all with good kicking skills, and a touch of grunt sounds like an ideal draft to me.

The WA boys always miss the warmth and the beach. The SA boys have literally nothing to miss. Melbourne is like New York for them.

 

[Dav1d]

The WA boys always miss the warmth and the beach. The SA boys have literally nothing to miss. Melbourne is like New York for them.

What is SA then?

a little worried if we were to take Pickett with our first pick, as much as I enjoy watching his highlights reel
Melbourne is a big change

 

[Pannalstaroz]

What is SA then?

a little worried if we were to take Pickett with our first pick, as much as I enjoy watching his highlights reel
Melbourne is a big change

I'd be reluctant to take any indigenous kid from WA. Not for racial reasons,,because I love them, but history says they always tend to want to go home at some point.

 

[Bulldogsnm1]

Yeah I agree hence why I went KPP (again!). they're either genuine insiders (Neal-Bullen/Bampton) types or way too outside (Langford/Menadue) types.

Based on above you have pigeoned holed both of the above as outside runners. Both players are quite defensively minded and very good contested marks, both kick goals and both are excellent tacklers.

The one pot on Langford is his disposal and decision making. There body size doesn't allow them to be inside mids however as defenders you can play them on anyone other than the real giants. However both could play well on a Lonie or Daniel or Lamb and perhaps a Mc Cartin

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Having said that, an indigenous excitement machine is something we could really use.

 

[Wizard17]

I actually don't mind us going for an inside mid last so long as they have an outside game we could develop quite well. Clay Smith can't stay uninjured Boyd and Cooney are looking as if they are really starting to slow down so we need a little bit more leadership in there.

Yeah I agree hence why I went KPP (again!). they're either genuine insiders (Neal-Bullen/Bampton) types or way too outside (Langford/Menadue) types.

Nelson was the closest and with his height and versatility he was a strong consideration but he's just another inside leaning player with an outside game...think you've got enough of them. Wanted an outside player with an inside game not the other way round...this draft isn't solid for outside leaning mids unfortunately

 

[Skippos]

Don't get me wrong, huge fan of Menadue and think he becomes a good player but I don't see him as a mid-teens sort of pick; he's just got too many weaknesses. Think somebody will pull the trigger in the second round but anything before about 20-25 I just don't see him being worth it.

That said though does seem a bit like a Wells pick; somebody with undoubted talent and flashes of brilliance but doesn't really stand out as a first rounder.

Always good to get perspectives from outside BF though, a lot on here seem to be on the same wavelength, strangely enough.

Like the Lever pick and your reasoning for him over Durdin though. Lack of exposed form, overrated forward ability and skinniness aside, what're the concerns you have with Durdin?

You've covered a lot of it.

I'm a massive fan of the idea that if a player's not doing it at junior level he won't do it at senior level. Obviously you've got to model and project what growth does to them but in general I don't think players just 'gain' ability or 'put it all together' like that. Durdin's a great contested mark. McGovern style. He's a great field kick, and he's athletic. Despite all that he just can't do anything. In the champs he averaged 10 touches playing between the arcs and through the ruck a lot. At SANFL reserves level it's 5 touches a game. As a forward he's pretty bad, runs to the wrong spot, can't seem to utilise his contested marking, doesn't know the little tricks to work opponents over, goes up the field at the wrong time. Down back he's not particularly powerful. He's got good closing speed on long leads but seems slow to react to the initial lead and being double backed and also I'm not too sure his acceleration is that great at the moment (though his top speed is fine.) He's also got a nice wingspan but he can be beaten one on one and occasionally lacks discipline in blanketing his opponent. His footskills are really quite good but due to a low football IQ (and this is a big one, if you're taking a bloke in the top 5-6 you want more than just a lockdown back) he doesn't get himself in position to utilise them. He has the ability to really contribute to the transition but he's just not able to do it very often.

Half my problems with Durdin are potentially fixed when he bulks up. With 15 kegs of extra muscle I think he's certainly going to be a more powerful player & better 1 on 1 as well as having more force when contested marking (that said, I don't want to be picking a player on the assumption that muscle/bulk will fix all his problems). The other half are mental. Footy smarts are possibly the hardest thing to learn and IMO they're the most important thing in the game. He lacks them. Just lacks that something dominant such that even if he bulks up and smartens up a little I still just can't say with any confidence he'll be anything more than a role player. It's a bit of a gut feel I'll admit, but in general something just feels a bit off with him. I can't remember a player projected to be picked so highly based so much on speculation and potential and so little on exposed performance and I'm not sure I can get on board with it.

 

[TempleKelvington]

You've covered a lot of it.
1.Durdin's a great contested mark. McGovern style. He's a great field kick, and he's athletic.
2.Despite all that he just can't do anything. In the champs he averaged 10 touches playing between the arcs and through the ruck a lot. At SANFL reserves level it's 5 touches a game.

3.Half my problems with Durdin are potentially fixed when he bulks up.
4.Footy smarts are possibly the hardest thing to learn and IMO they're the most important thing in the game. He lacks them. I can't remember a player projected to be picked so highly based so much on speculation and potential and so little on exposed performance and I'm not sure I can get on board with it.

Interesting points made here. If your analysis of him is correct we won't draft him I reckon. I picked out some key things. Plus side is he his a great mark, Kick and athletic.

He does not get a lot of the ball.....that is a worry, especially for a great mark and athletic type.

On the down side is that his deficiencies might be fixed by bulking up and I always hope that players putting on size will compliment an already good package. If he has that mongrel determination in him, his size will help him, but he needs the mongrel determination first. (Think Clay Smith)

I don't think Macca will want a guy who lacks smarts. I certainly hope not anyway. The best players are usually footballers first and athletes second, get both and you have a champion. Macca loves guys who can get their own pill and like to get their hands dirty.

Now of course you take more punts with lower draft picks, but certainly with our first pick and possibly our second we simply cannot not take too many risks on key areas. If this analysis is correct we should pass on Durdin here for a our first pick.

 

[Dav1d]

I don't think Macca will want a guy who lacks smarts. I certainly hope not anyway. The best players are usually footballers first and athletes second, get both and you have a champion. Macca loves guys who can get their own pill and like to get their hands dirty.

Now of course you take more punts with lower draft picks, but certainly with our first pick and possibly our second we simply cannot not take too many risks on key areas. If this analysis is correct we should pass on Durdin here for a our first pick.

would probably have to be an extremely coachable player if they didn't
I'm sure the right player could learn to win their own ball, as long as they were willing to do what was asked of them
and of course something else Macca loves, put their head over the ball

we've gone the other way to, athletes first and footballers second in the past
and got burnt badly
I like our new approach, but like you said
take a couple of risks later in the draft/rookie
and fingers crossed; can pick up a bargain or two

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

You've covered a lot of it.

Thanks, nice analysis; good to get some differing views rather than reading the same thing on Durdin 20 times.

Up forward I totally agree with you; his great hands mask pretty ordinary timing on his leads and his general forward work just doesn't look natural. I've never really seen the forward play others seem to rave about. I think he develops the ability to swing there in future but he's certainly not your starting CHF in my mind.

I think in defense the hardest thing is judging just how much the very limited pre-season has affected him. In some ways it's easier to judge Lever after an entire year out because he hasn't had a good 6 months of average form to make draft watchers ask questions of him, haha. I saw a few games of his last year (albeit recorded) and thought that his ability to read the play and put himself in the right positions really did stand out ahead of all of his other attributes. I just don't think that disappears, although it can be exposed at higher levels of play. I guess the biggest judgment a recruiter has to make is whether it's due to a bit of a layoff, or whether it's just weak. I think he's been steadily improving throughout the year which is why I view him as potentially the best player in the draft if he can continue building and put on some weight. That said though, I can definitely see where you're coming from; it's absolutely a pick that is being made primarily on projection rather than exposed form. Will be interesting to see whether he does slide come draft time.

 

[paulveed]

I'd be reluctant to take any indigenous kid from WA. Not for racial reasons,,because I love them, but history says they always tend to want to go home at some point.

My birth family [ parents and sibling] are Perth folks, and I have spent plenty of time over there. But gee, W Aussies can be pretty insular. I often joke with my family and friends over there..." do you realize that most of our country actually is East of your state boundary, things do actually occur beyond your state limits".
Wa produces some outstanding footballers, but you need to do some serious research on their personalities and attitudes before you elect to pull them away from home, if you expect to make them one club players.

 

[Super Hans]

Lever train gaining momentum

Unless one of the big three slid (McCartin, Wright, Petracca) he is our man.

 

[Dav1d]

Lever train gaining momentum

Unless one of the big three slid (McCartin, Wright, Petracca) he is our man.

Are you a Be-Lever?

I beLever you are

 

[NagoyaDog]

The WA boys always miss the warmth and the beach. The SA boys have literally nothing to miss. Melbourne is like New York for them.

There might be something to this in relation to WA players. In the early to mid 80s, Footscray brought in some fantastically talented WA guys; Simon Beasley, Andrew Purser, Jim Sewell and Brad Hardie. These guys were quite mature when they came over, not 17 y.o draftees. Besides Beasley, these guys returned to WA. We haven't had that connection with WA really since then.

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

Are you a Be-Lever?

I beLever you are

What have you done.

I insist we draft him now.

 

[Super Hans]

For anyone going to the footy tonight the Herald sun shield is the curtain raiser. 4:30 start I think. Liam Duggan is probably the only relevant player for St Pats as they go for their 5th shield in a row, playing Box Hill.

 

[Dav1d]

What have you done.

I insist we draft him now.

If our recruiters draft Lever, I do wonder what this means for Cordy
two players that play similar roles, suppose it depends I guess if they can/have demonstrated versatility

For anyone going to the footy tonight the Herald sun shield is the curtain raiser. 4:30 start I think. Liam Duggan is probably the only relevant player for St Pats as they go for their 5th shield in a row, playing Box Hill.

that kid plays a ridiculous amount of games, in my opinion
bobs up everywhere; still really like how he plays to, even if he was quiet in the televised games

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

If our recruiters draft Lever, I do wonder what this means for Cordy
two players that play similar roles, suppose it depends I guess if they can/have demonstrated versatility


that kid plays a ridiculous amount of games, in my opinion
bobs up everywhere; still really like how he plays to, even if he was quiet in the televised games

Depends, I guess I'd want Lever relatively deeper in defense (despite his obvious rebounding ability) and Cordy more pushing up towards the wing.

Cordy could be anything, hopefully they don't try to turn him into a KPD.

 

[Mofra]

If our recruiters draft Lever, I do wonder what this means for Cordy
two players that play similar roles, suppose it depends I guess if they can/have demonstrated versatility

Isn't Cordy more lockdown, Lever more rebounder?
If that is the case, we could use both.

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

Isn't Cordy more lockdown, Lever more rebounder?
If that is the case, we could use both.

Have found Lever to be naturally capable of both, although perhaps more close-checking than lockdown. Cordy seems suited to the lockdown role at times, and then he goes and concedes a bag in a half of footy.

I've thought he might be suited to an Andrew Mackie role in our side, but others see it completely differently. He could go either way, he's got a few good attributes, so I'd like to see what we can do with him.

 

[Gghippo]

Lever train gaining momentum

Unless one of the big three slid (McCartin, Wright, Petracca) he is our man.

Based on?

 

[Dav1d]

Isn't Cordy more lockdown, Lever more rebounder?
If that is the case, we could use both.

Lever can do both

but you're probably right, still not keen to see us use our 2nd rounder on him still (Cordy)

if all our best available selections were KPPs, would be something

the one Skippos chose in the 3rd round in the PD was interesting, because he isn't really a score-board hitting KPP
more an assist one, that uses the ball well and is real athletic
talking about Finlayson by the way; check him out in Skippos highlights in his mock if you want

looking at next year, the top rated players are mostly midfielders
could be loading up on KPPs this draft, midfielders next

 

[AjsGuns]

2014 draft power rankings:

-- Potential A-graders --

1. Peter Wright (VIC - KPF/Ruck)

2. Patrick McCartin (VIC - KPF)

3. Isaac Heeney (Syd – Academy - NSW – Mid/Def)

4. Christian Petracca (VIC – Mid/Fwd)

5. Angus Brayshaw (VIC – Mid/Def)

6. Reece McKenzie (VIC – KPF/Ruck)

Interesting.. KM has put Mckenzie into #6 in his power rankings and declared him a top 10 pick when responding to someones question. Obviously just 1 persons opinion (he did rate Kietel highly as well and has now dropped him) but interesting..
Alot of hype about him lately, doubt he is there in the second round.