I keep saying this, but I think we'll trade one of the young crew. It's an unpopular thought, and it'll be an unpopular action, but I think you could package a good young player and good pick (say pick 22) for a pick in the 8-16 range and get a much better good young player. Remember this is the first draft for a while where there's actually the best 10 young players in the country (and beyond - there's an Irish kid getting a lot of hype) actually available in the first 10 picks. I really can see someone like Saunders or Newnes getting traded. Yes they are good contributing players (Saunders one of my faves, Newnes having a breakout year) but I don't think either will ever be a gun player.
If this is a good draft, and it's an uncompromised one, I would give up Jack Newnes to end us up with picks 3 and 8 for example if those two players ended up being guns.
Or Sean Dempster - he's playing reasonably well but he's the spare, the 3rd-man up. This is one of the easier roles for someone else (Roberton?) to move into. He's still good for a clanger per game too. Think when we are ready for the next tilt, it'll be without him.
Geary and Gwilt are FAs so they won't be traded - if they leave, they will just leave.
Armitage has limited value; Richmond will probably lean on Thomas now instead of fix the need they have for a hard-nut type in the middle. Carlton have other problems to address and must surely realise giving up a decent pick for a player like Armo isn't going to help their situation.
The 'window' to sell Gilbert to GCS has closed I reckon. By the start of 2015 season he'll be four years off his best form and will likely have played something like 18 games in two years. And their players will be a year more developed, and with KK playing off HB. I think Gilbert will have become a risk for any club really, certainly not one you'd give up a decent pick for - you'd rather take that risk with a youngster in the draft I reckon.
I think when Pelchen said he wanted to increase our draft picks in the next few drafts, it was bearing in mind that they would be uncompromised drafts. I also however think their move for Longer shows they are flexible; if there's a shallow draft pool one year they might instead switch to a trading tactic. Or by then you might be able to trade a pick this year for one next year.
I reckon:
2014 - trade Newnes and 2nd round for 1st round pick
2014 - trade Seb Ross for 2nd round pick
2014 - delist Siposs, TDL
2015 - trade Sean Dempster for late 1st/early 2nd round pick (if not already done in 2014)
2015 - delist Murdoch, White, Holmes/Pierce (maybe both)
2016 - trade Billy Longer for 1st round pick
2016 - trade Blake Acres for 1st round pick
2016 - delist ????
I think having Hickey and Longer means we are likely to have either one of them not turn out well, or if they both turn out good then we'll have to move one on. Our rucks list right now is too young, which is fine because they can still train vs Jolly and we're not challenging now. But by 2018 I think we'll have Hickey or Longer plus AN other who is a pinch-hitter, potentially someone more experienced.
I see Acres as a high go-home risk, but one who should get us good comp.
By 2016 we even could be looking at delisting Savage, Lee or others who haven't "made it", to set us up for getting good picks and being big players in FA in 2017 - - - and by 2017 I'd say it's likely you'll get to sign players a year younger than now and maybe even let players buy out their own final year to get to FA.