A really interesting discussion. I hope nobody minds if I add some thoughts (originally posted elsewhere) but food for thought anyway...
Our potential team/squad in 2017... (with ages in brackets)...
Gwilt (30) Delaney (27) Geary (28)
Webster (23) Bruce (24) Wright (23)
Armitage (28) Hickey (26) Dunstan (22)
Montagna (33) Steven (27) Newnes (24)
Billings (21) Stanley (26) Templeton (21)
Saunders (22) ????????? ?????????
INT: Gilbert (30), Curren (24), Ray (31), Ross (23)
Defensive depth: Roberton (25)
Midfield depth: Savage (26), Weller (25), Longer (23), Pierce (22), Acres (21)
Forward depth: Lee (26), Markworth (25), White (22)
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Retired: Hayes, Fisher, Riewoldt, Dempster, Jones, Schneider, Maister
Delisted: Milera, Dennis-Lane, Holmes, Dunell, Simpkin, Shenton, Siposs, Minchington, Murdoch
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The average age of this squad of 29 players is just over 25 yo. There's a lot of evenness in there in terms of age-mix and quality... but clearly there are some problems...
- there's a big hole in the forward line with not much depth there
We'll be hoping that one (or more) of Markworth, Lee, White and Minchington can become a regular.
TDL or Milera may still be kept for depth... or more likely recycled players traded for and tried instead.
Clearly we'll need to get hold of another quality tall forward either from the draft, say this year, or by trading or free agency in 2/3 years time.
- there are only 4 likely A graders in there (Steven, Billings, Webster (probable IMO), Montagna (ageing))
In particular, whilst there is already a degree of midfield depth, the outright quality looks slim (eg. when matched up against say GC - Martin, Ablett, Swallow, O'Meara, Prestia, Bennell, Kolodjashnij). We'll need to prioritise QUALITY over quantity when recruiting mids.
- there's a lack of depth in the backline
The current starting back 6 (minus the ageing Dempster and Fisher) look good to go for another few years but there isn't much else. This presents an opportunity for the likes of Cam Shenton (still only 23) to step up. Really not sure what has happened to Dylan Roberton this year? Again, the well of the draft, trading and free agency will be looked at.... though IMO we shouldn't look to spend too much in this area as defence is more about a team and effort orientation rather than a search for elite quality.
OVERALL STRATEGY FOR RECRUITING OVER THE NEW 3 YEARS
From the above we can see that we should expect a turnover of around 5 players per year over the next 3 years. This is much less than our average of the last few years (?approaching 10 players per year) In terms of new recruits this equates to a mix each year of perhaps... 2/3 players in the draft, 1/2 from trades/free agency, and 1 new rookie. IMO we can expect to have around 6 picks <30 over the next 3 years which should be used to try to snare 4 mids and 2 tall forwards. The 3rd round pick (around 45-50) can be used to trade for backline or small forward depth.
In terms of trading OUT, my list analysis suggests that the only real area we can afford to let players go is B/C grade midfielders e.g. 1 of Hickey/Longer/Pierce, 1/2 of Armo/Ross/Saunders/Newnes/Curren/Weller. There are significant arguments against doing this. The best reason FOR doing so would be if for instance we could use one of these players to improve our 2nd round pick (around #30) to a mid/late-teen pick or 3rd round pick (#50) to around #30. OR we could look to trade out our first pick for one of the GWS/GC guns as one or other is inevitably forced out by $$ pressure (Swallow, Prestia, Kolodjashnij, Shiel, Whitfield, Greene, Kelly, Patton, Boyd, Cameron). Or even a 2nd rounder for one of Tomlinson, Stewart, Lynch, Lonergan.
We look placed to snag a quality free agent in 2016 (or 2017/18) as over the next 2 years we will lose some well paid players. Dangerfield, Sloane, Rich, Redden, Shuey or Yarran??