List Mgmt. 2014 Draft

[Nickos66]

I'm not sure how that video went for 3 mins, but once I started it.. I saw no reason to stop it.

 

[mike91]

Can I get this one?

#3 in that race View attachment 91875

 

[rodney hoo]

I couldn't disagree with you more.

KPFs do take time, as you say, to get used to the game and get their body right. All the more reason to get one now.

With regard to pinching someone else's, we've tried that for about 4 years now. Hasn't worked. Now we're approaching a seriously critical point, Pav retiring.

You say you're better off developing them - that requires you to draft them in the first place. Sure, you can load up on late picked/rookie talls, but they rarely work out as a genuine #1 KPF. Here we are with what will probably be our highest pick for the next few years, on a draft loaded with quality talls at the top. No better time.

Out of interest I took a look at the draft position of the 'genuine key targets' in the comp. Feel free to disagree with the list but I think it covers most of the guys who can actually function as a #1 KPF:

Pav #4 1999
JJK #4 2005
Schultz #12 2002
Walker #75 (NSW Scholarship) 2007
Hawkins #41 (F/S - touted as top 5)
Pitrie #23 2000
Waite #46 (F/S) 2001
Roughead #2 2004
Cloke #39 (F/S) 2004
N Riewoldt #1 2000
J Riewoldt #13 2006
Franklin #5 2004
Tippett #32 2006
Cameron Minidraft 2011
--------
Others not yet so established but borderline:
--------
Daniher #10 (F/S - touted as top 5) 2012
Carlisle #24 2009
M. Clark #9 2005
Crameri Rookie 2009
Dixon GC Zone 2009 (Highly Touted)
Josh Jenkins Rookie 2011
T. Lynch (GC) #11 2010

So high picks are generally where you get your KPFs. Adjusting the F/S picks and the minidraft/GC picks to where they were touted to otherwise go, the average is ~20 and the median, being the more appropriate measure, is ~11.

Now I really CBF doing success/failure rates for KPFs picked in different ranges, because while it might be more accurate, it would take ages. But a cursory examination of these data would seem to suggest that #1 KPFs are more likely than not to come from 1st round picks (effectively half of those listed cost a 1st round pick equivalent).

I'm not going to be upset if we pick a mid, because there could be some seriously good ones available. But if there is a time to go tall, it is now, in this draft, with this pick, assuming a good tall (eg. Durdin, Wright, etc) drops to us.

I'm also not going to be upset if we take a tall, but even on your list the only real superstars were taken in the first 4/5 picks. Buddy, Roughead , reiwoldt n were plug in & play players in sides that were developing & on the way up. Without responding on every player Hawkins took 4/5 seasons before he did a lot ( there was talk of trading him & cats were that good they carried him) Walker did a knee etc.. My point & imo is the game is now won in the midfield & has moved on a lot from even those early picks on your list 8 to 10 years ago. Had a quick look at knightmares draft & he does not see any plug in play bigs. I just don't see a buddy or Roughead at pick 13 .

 

[Apenesslike]

Bet mine is faster

Yours may appear quicker to the naked eye, but all opponents would be caught by her, by choice.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

I'm not sure how that video went for 3 mins, but once I started it.. I saw no reason to stop it.

I wanted to see if she won, after that jig.

 

[simpsonwillo]

Cockatoo anyone? Could be the best of the lot. Check this out
http://bigpondvideo.com/AFL/697013/draft-prospect-nakia-cockatoo/

 

[Moo]

Cockatoo anyone? Could be the best of the lot. Check this out
http://bigpondvideo.com/AFL/697013/draft-prospect-nakia-cockatoo/

Looks to be a very strong chance to be West Coast bound.

 

[Moo]

I wanted to see if she won, after that jig.

She won our hearts.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I'm also not going to be upset if we take a tall, but even on your list the only real superstars were taken in the first 4/5 picks. Buddy, Roughead , reiwoldt n were plug in & play players in sides that were developing & on the way up. Without responding on every player Hawkins took 4/5 seasons before he did a lot ( there was talk of trading him & cats were that good they carried him) Walker did a knee etc.. My point & imo is the game is now won in the midfield & has moved on a lot from even those early picks on your list 8 to 10 years ago. Had a quick look at knightmares draft & he does not see any plug in play bigs. I just don't see a buddy or Roughead at pick 13 .

Fair point. My post was more of a Devil's advocacy one as I also would be not at all unhappy with a good mid.

My only issue is regarding the 'plug and play' point, that is that we have tried to obtain an (almost) developed KPF for a while, and there is no reason to suggest we would succeed next year when we have failed up until this point. Thus, if we have to develop are own KPF, we had better start as early as possible. Apeness represents an opportunity there, but he could very well not make it.

 

[mayne iac]

View attachment 91872

I don't get it

 

[Unique Name]

Go best available mid (Pickett, Cockatoo, De Goey) and keep rebuilding our engine room.

Try and pick up Tex Walker next year to take the reigns over from Pav. That way Apeness and Tabs won't be taking the best defender for quite some time and have more time to develop.

Would love to get Tex, not sure it will happen though.

 

[simpsonwillo]

Go best available mid (Pickett, Cockatoo, De Goey) and keep rebuilding our engine room.

Try and pick up Tex Walker next year to take the reigns over from Pav. That way Apeness and Tabs won't be taking the best defender for quite some time and have more time to develop.

Would love to get Tex, not sure it will happen though.

Sounds good to me. Can you imagine Cockatoo in there with Fyfe Barlow Mundy Hill Morra Neale. Far out what a midfield! And Tex Walker in purple. Can you imagine !

 

[Docker82]

Go best available mid (Pickett, Cockatoo, De Goey) and keep rebuilding our engine room.

Try and pick up Tex Walker next year to take the reigns over from Pav. That way Apeness and Tabs won't be taking the best defender for quite some time and have more time to develop.

Would love to get Tex, not sure it will happen though.

Personally I think there's around a 50/50 chance all those players are gone and whilst I want the best available, it is not necessarily a mid. Durdin, Wright or Goddard would be taken as best available if at our pick and tbh this years draft is supposed to be strong for talls (which previous drafts people on bf use as examples weren't) while next years draft is strong for mids. We can get a better mid for the same pick next year by the sounds of it so why pass over a quality tall. Drafts with many quality KPPs come around every 5 years, whilst they're good mids in every draft. Outside the three talls I mention (along with one or two before our pick) we'd be much better off with a mid but overlooking one of these three quality talls is nothing like us overlooking Matt Panos, Mason Shaw etc. All three have been talked about as top 3 picks in the last 18 months. That doesn't happen for no reason.

 

[Frank J Moose]

Sounds good to me. Can you imagine Cockatoo in there with Fyfe Barlow Mundy Hill Morra Neale. Far out what a midfield! And Tex Walker in purple. Can you imagine !

The chance of getting Tex Walker are almost nil!

 

[ilikepotatoes]

The chance of getting Tex Walker are almost nil!

Almost? There is a chance at all.

 

[chinggis77]

The chance of getting Tex Walker are almost nil!

So you are telling me there´s a chance!

 

[simpsonwillo]

The chance of getting Tex Walker are almost nil!

I said "can you imagine". It's ok to dream isn't it. Anyway he will be a free agent next year so why is it impossible? I know chances are very slim but not completely out of the question.

 

[Barls_7]

wow, look at shane yarran's highlights on the afl's draft machine..

 

[Andy Brennan]

Chris25 if you'd had pick 72 in the bf phantom who would you have taken?

 

[Docker82]

wow, look at shane yarran's highlights on the afl's draft machine..

With pick 72 now live, assuming no delisted free agent I'd like the guy at the club. He'd be ready to go straight away and we need pace. We could be the perfect fit. (Or maybe West Coast is considering he has spent time in jail)

 

[Chris25]

Chris25 if you'd had pick 72 in the bf phantom who would you have taken?

Keenan Ramsey. Attacking, versatile KPP from SA. Would have been a bargain at 72.

 

[Andy Brennan]

Keenan Ramsey. Attacking, versatile KPP from SA. Would have been a bargain at 72.

I really hope the club follows your lead and goes for 2 mids and 2 talls

 

[rgauci]

Petracca, Brayshaw, McCartin, Laverde, Lever, DeGoey, Wright, Goddard, Durdin, Weller, Pickett, Duggan...

I'm not concerned, we are getting a gun.

 

[purplerunsdeep]

Petracca, Brayshaw, McCartin, Laverde, Lever, DeGoey, Wright, Goddard, Durdin, Weller, Pickett, Duggan...

I'm not concerned, we are getting a gun.

we will get a very good player 1st round

its our 2nd and 3rd rounders we need to nail

we historically do well - fingers crossed

 

[Moo]

we will get a very good player 1st round

its our 2nd and 3rd rounders we need to nail

we historically do well - fingers crossed

Mmmmmm my fear is historically we have done OK and of late we have been horrible.