Draft Review 2014 - Redo the 2014 AFL Draft

[Roadto2018]

The club picked him for when he's ready to go and to be our main man, he doesn't essentially NEED to be playing and playing well for us, so as long as he's developing he'll become a very very good player for us when we really need him. That's not to say I'm content with him not playing at all, he'll get his chances this year and I expect some decent performances, but the idea that unless he's consistently kicking goals in the 1s then it's a failed pick just 3 years after we picked him, is a bit frustrating tbh, yes Petracca is playing GOOD footy atm, but he was always going to be better earlier, always, and it's not like he's tearing the competition apart so I hate the notion that if we had him then we'd be a significantly better side.

On to him as a footballer, I don't think he's slow like people seem to lump on him, just maybe a tad unagile, but if Tom Hawkins is agile then I'm Cyril Rioli, it's not essential to play footy. His hands are terrific and he's a powerful shot at goal (has accuracy issues at this stage but once he gets over that as I don't feel it's a technique thing, then we'll see him kicking some very good goals), but what I feel is his best asset, is he is just an extremely smart footballer, be it in one-on-ones or with ball in hand, he's extremely crafty and this will be vital for us in the future. He leads well, but as I saw about 7 or 8 times against Brisbane, we always look for Riewoldt, even in three-on-one, which would be frustrating for Paddy.

The concussions are extremely overstated, he never failed a concussion test, not one, and I know this for a fact. As we saw when we withdrew him from round 1 with the hammy tightness, we're going to take the cautious approach with him. I have no idea to what extent the diabetes affects his performance, but he seems to have managed thus far, I'm not sure why it would stop him from building a tank really, but I'll back him to manage it all his entire career.

As I said before, whilst our forward line is packed with Roo Bruce Membrey and performing well (just not on the goal kicking accuracy side of things) it's not an absolute necessity that he plays in the 1s, he will play more throughout the year and hopefully show his development, but the bigger focus should be on him being fully ready for when his time comes, which is when Riewoldt is done, which guess what? Is what we drafted him for! So until Paddy can't get a kick when he's the main man in our forward line and Petracca is an absolute star, then I'm happy to wait on this one. No point going the early crow as Petracca is no Bont.

 

[pinot]

No he's not.

From what I have seen - he is consistently in top 5 of players on the ground.

 

[Jeremias]

From what I have seen - he is consistently in top 5 of players on the ground.

He was named in the top 6 for Northern 8 times from 17 games in 2016.

Had a solid year last year - and looks to have started this year reasonably well also - but to say he has been dominating is a stretch.

 

[pinot]

He was named in the top 6 for Northern 8 times from 17 games in 2016.

Had a solid year last year - and looks to have started this year reasonably well also - but to say he has been dominating is a stretch.

I don't think it is - he is consistently one of the best talls on the ground. Needs to be given a solid four weeks as key forward and play Weitering in defence.

 

[Trav 20]

yes Petracca is playing GOOD footy atm, but he was always going to be better earlier, always, and it's not like he's tearing the competition apart so I hate the notion that if we had him then we'd be a significantly better side.

So until Paddy can't get a kick when he's the main man in our forward line and Petracca is an absolute star, then I'm happy to wait on this one. No point going the early crow as Petracca is no Bont.

Petracca is building very nicely. We were happy with his 2016 coming off an ACL and he's becoming a very important player in 2017.

Perhaps you had expectations that he was going to tear the competition apart from his first game ?

Dustin Martin is now recognised to be in the top 5 players in the game and when I compare them at the same age (21) they're stats and impact on games are quite similar. In Martin's third year he averaged 22 disposals (Petracca 21), marks 3 (Petracca 6), goals 1.2 (CP 1.5), AFL ranking points 84 (CP 89). Dusty tackles a little more (3 compared to 1.8), more clearances, while Petracca's contested marking is better at the same age as well as his number of marks inside forward 50.

Petracca hasn't had a breakout game as of yet, but he's heading towards a 20+ disposal 30+ goal season, which is very acceptable for a young powerful half-forward with the occasional foray into the middle.

But it's also his burst runs, shrugging of tackles, attacking play, long effective kicks, and smart decisions that are really starting to impact general play.

Interestingly, last year only 3 players averaged over 20 disposals and kicked over 30 goals (N. Riewoldt, Greene, Brent Harvey), so if Petracca continues with his present numbers he'll become a very valuable commodity in just second year of playing. It took Martin until his 5th season (age 23) to achieve this feat. Fwiw, I think Petracca's numbers will only improve as 2017 progresses.

I think McCartin is a smart footballer who needs to lose some weight and increase his running capacity. If he can do this, and I see no reason why he won't, then I think McCartin will become a quality key forward. It's all about his running and repeat efforts.

 

[Roadto2018]

Petracca is building very nicely. We were happy with his 2016 coming off an ACL and he's becoming a very important player in 2017.

Perhaps you had expectations that he was going to tear the competition apart from his first game ?

Dustin Martin is now recognised to be in the top 5 players in the game and when I compare them at the same age (21) they're stats and impact on games are quite similar. In Martin's third year he averaged 22 disposals (Petracca 21), marks 3 (Petracca 6), goals 1.2 (CP 1.5), AFL ranking points 84 (CP 89). Dusty tackles a little more (3 compared to 1.8), more clearances, while Petracca's contested marking is better at the same age as well as his number of marks inside forward 50.

Petracca hasn't had a breakout game as of yet, but he's heading towards a 20+ disposal 30+ goal season, which is very acceptable for a young powerful half-forward with the occasional foray into the middle.

But it's also his burst runs, shrugging of tackles, attacking play, long effective kicks, and smart decisions that are really starting to impact general play.

Interestingly, last year only 3 players averaged over 20 disposals and kicked over 30 goals (N. Riewoldt, Greene, Brent Harvey), so if Petracca continues with his present numbers he'll become a very valuable commodity in just second year of playing. It took Martin until his 5th season (age 23) to achieve this feat. Fwiw, I think Petracca's numbers will only improve as 2017 progresses.

I think McCartin is a smart footballer who needs to lose some weight and increase his running capacity. If he can do this, and I see no reason why he won't, then I think McCartin will become a quality key forward. It's all about his running and repeat efforts.

Skipped over most of your stats and comparison to Martin as I simply do not care, my statement is still very true but clearly you missed the point, he is NOT tearing the competition apart in a way that would make us instantly and considerably better had we picked him, hence I am very happy to wait until Mccartin is fully ready to show us how good he can be.

I'm not doubting for a second Petracca is playing good footy and building, he'll be a very very good player, but the insinuation is that he's absolutely miles ahead and dominating and thus it was a clear mistake to not pick him, as though he were Bont, he isn't, not even close. He's better than Mccartin now but even we would've accepted that was likely to happen.

My point was that Petracca isn't dominating and thus we wouldn't yet be thinking we got it wrong, and it's frustrating to see that because of the hype he has, people think he'd be the difference for us right now, I was not making a point of him being disappointing or anything, so by pulling out all these stats and comparisons you simply and utterly missed the point.

 

[vozzon]

Looking at the list Saints are building it was a call they had to make, there wouldn't be another chance saints can get a potential gun key forward.

Port had to trade 2 1st round picks to get dixon so i can easily see why saints made the pick they did. Melbourne were in such a good situation that the top 3 players picked them selves and were happy either way. They could have easily picked 2 metre peter and it would have looked like genius drafting.

Its looking like a good draft either way, most teams with early first rounder would be happy.

 

[Trav 20]

Skipped over most of your stats and comparison to Martin as I simply do not care, my statement is still very true but clearly you missed the point, he is NOT tearing the competition apart in a way that would make us instantly and considerably better had we picked him, hence I am very happy to wait until Mccartin is fully ready to show us how good he can be.

I'm not doubting for a second Petracca is playing good footy and building, he'll be a very very good player, but the insinuation is that he's absolutely miles ahead and dominating and thus it was a clear mistake to not pick him, as though he were Bont, he isn't, not even close. He's better than Mccartin now but even we would've accepted that was likely to happen.

My point was that Petracca isn't dominating and thus we wouldn't yet be thinking we got it wrong, and it's frustrating to see that because of the hype he has, people think he'd be the difference for us right now, I was not making a point of him being disappointing or anything, so by pulling out all these stats and comparisons you simply and utterly missed the point.

I see your point. Early picks, including pick 1, are a long-term investment, so yes, it's too early to call McCartin a mistake and too early to stamp Petracca a rolled gold super star, or certainty to become one.

But I do know that players who kick over 30 goals and average over 20 possessions per game are invaluable. Just three players did it last year and one of them was AA. Petracca is on track to do that this year. I'd be surprised if that didn't make you an instantly better team right now. And it most certainly puts him "miles ahead" of a player currently running around in the VFL.

Hopefully modern footy and the running game hasn't rendered St Kilda's choice wasted. It's all about running. And in that regard there are rightfully queries over McCartin's body shape. Clayton Oliver drastically changed his body shape just this preseason, yet McCartin still looks like a bush full-forward in his third year.

 

[Testekill]

It wasn't a mistake in the sense that he was always rated in the top 3 of the draft and the Saints wanted a KPF. They didn't have Membrey yet, Bruce hadn't clicked and I would assume that they were planning on making a play for Tom Boyd in 2015 which got derailed when the Bulldogs traded for him.
It's easy to say that it was a mistake in hindsight but there were reasons that the Saints took him.

 

[Roadto2018]

I see your point. Early picks, including pick 1, are a long-term investment, so yes, it's too early to call McCartin a mistake and too early to stamp Petracca a rolled gold super star, or certainty to become one.

But I do know that players who kick over 30 goals and average over 20 possessions per game are invaluable. Just three players did it last year and one of them was AA. Petracca is on track to do that this year. I'd be surprised if that didn't make you an instantly better team right now. And it most certainly puts him "miles ahead" of a player currently running around in the VFL.

Hopefully modern footy and the running game hasn't rendered St Kilda's choice wasted. It's all about running. And in that regard there are rightfully queries over McCartin's body shape. Clayton Oliver drastically changed his body shape just this preseason, yet McCartin still looks like a bush full-forward in his third year.

Yeah no doubt when comparing them now Petracca would make us better as he'd be playing because he'd fit into our 22, Paddy can fit in our best 22 but it is hard with Roo as he is always going to be the focal point, however I would've argued Paddy was ahead had he kicked straight against west coast (2.3), but he doesn't, has a poor one against Brisbane (mainly due to the Riewoldt reason I've given) and then he's out of the side for balance, that's footy.

Mccartin's body shape issues are another overstated issue, they'll take care of themselves, as I've said it's about him being ready when we need him to be, which will come.

Being on track to do something after 4 games doesn't mean a whole lot tbh, and the one who was AA did also kick 44 goals so little bit different to just kicking over 30 goals, again I'm not arguing Petracca isn't playing well or developing nicely but the gap is not a chasm imo, nothing that wasn't expected anyway. In the end the gap may never close, Petracca may well be a better footballer than Paddy when they're both in their prime, but as long as we are happy with Paddy and how he's playing I think the call is justified because realistically we'd need another key forward when Riewoldt retires.

 

[Trav 20]

It was widely reported at the time that the Saints knocked back picks 4 and 7 from GWS in return for pick 1, as the Giants wanted Petracca.

On the surface that's now a massive fail. I suppose there's some solace in the fact that Picket (4) and Ahern (7) are now at other clubs, not that the Saints would have necessarily picked them anyway.

Going back through that draft it doesn't shape as being stellar.

 

[Ads734]

It was widely reported at the time that the Saints knocked back picks 4 and 7 from GWS in return for pick 1, as the Giants wanted Petracca.

On the surface that's now a massive fail. I suppose there's some solace in the fact that Picket (4) and Ahern (7) are now at other clubs, not that the Saints would have necessarily picked them anyway.

Going back through that draft it doesn't shape as being stellar.

To be fair though the top 20 was very even and the saints ended up taking HUgh Goddard with there next pick which was supposed to be apart of the trade
so it was 4 and 7 for 1 and 20
IN the end its possible but unlikely that the saints would;ve taken Goddard at 7 but someone like Lever or duggan or even wright. However Goddard who is stilll speculative due to injuries and such isn't so bad.
Consequently its more like Mccartin and Goddard v Wright and Lever/Duggan/
On this I don't think its a fail at all and at the very least needs way more time to be judged.

 

[Glen Buterol]

It was widely reported at the time that the Saints knocked back picks 4 and 7 from GWS in return for pick 1, as the Giants wanted Petracca.

On the surface that's now a massive fail. I suppose there's some solace in the fact that Picket (4) and Ahern (7) are now at other clubs, not that the Saints would have necessarily picked them anyway.

Going back through that draft it doesn't shape as being stellar.

It was 4 (Pickett) & 7 (Ahern) for 1 (Paddy) & 21 (Goddard).

Hindsight posts are silly, every club has many failures when looking back at who they selected in previous drafts.

 

[Trav 20]

It was 4 (Pickett) & 7 (Ahern) for 1 (Paddy) & 21 (Goddard).

Hindsight posts are silly, every club has many failures when looking back at who they selected in previous drafts.

How do you rate foresight ?

 

[Glen Buterol]

How do you rate foresight ?

Not sure if smartarse or rhetorical tbh.

I've said my part on the Paddy selection. I would've picked Petracca ahead of him, club obviously chose different.

 

[saintsrfreak]

It was widely reported at the time that the Saints knocked back picks 4 and 7 from GWS in return for pick 1, as the Giants wanted Petracca.

On the surface that's now a massive fail. I suppose there's some solace in the fact that Picket (4) and Ahern (7) are now at other clubs, not that the Saints would have necessarily picked them anyway.

Going back through that draft it doesn't shape as being stellar.

Lol widely reported where? Here?

 

[Prochard123]

Key forward, always gonna take time, shown brilliant moments.
What is the expectation to satisfy you of a pick 1 selection?

Well it's pick 1, so you'd expect at least a top 5 player from the draft if not the very best. So far that's been Petracca, Lever, Heeney, Wright, Moore.

You could make the argument that Heeney was unavailable and Petracca didn't fit the needs.

You could also stretch it a bit and say you had Goddard planned so drafting 2 KPDs (Lever) was redundant.

To go 1 step further, it's debatable but let's just assume at this point in time Stkilda still rates Mccartin over Moore.

Then, what about Wright?

Wright kicked goals, contributed to the rucks and had plenty of contested marks per game on a team with extremely poor midfield and I50 delivery. Wright is miles ahead of Mccartin.

At this point my power ranking would be
1. Christian Petracca
2. Peter Wright
3. Isaac Heeney
4. Jack Lever
5. Darcy Moore
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Mccartin
8. Jack Steele
9. Caleb Marchbank
10. Angus Brayshaw/Jordan De Goey/Lachie Weller

Sure there has been worse picks (Pickett, Ahern, Garlett), but Mccartin at pick 1 definitely seem like a sub-par choice at best.

 

[adammania9]

4. Jack Lever
7. Peter Mccartin

 

[Prochard123]

does it look like I will be roasted soon ahaha

 

[Trav 20]

Lol widely reported where? Here?

I would have thought a Saints supporter followed a draft in which they had pick one.

Jake Niall wrote about it in The Age at the time, as did Sam Landsberger in the Hun.

Chris Pelchen spoke of regularly receiving packaged offers for pick one.

If you can't remember, or are new to footy, spend 30 seconds googling.

 

[Savage Kent]

I think it is just a matter of being patient and playing the long game with Paddy. It was always going to be about the end game with him. He has shown glimpses that he has the tools to become a gun key forward in the future. Very good mark, field kick, footy smarts, excellent with his leading patterns and draws the better defenders to him, therefore opening up space for the other forwards. Up until this point feels like we have seen the some of parts rather than the whole. Looked like he was going to have his breakout game last year against the tigers before breaking his collarbone. One thing that has hurt him is the lack of continuity through various issues such as injury, concussions or form. Would be good to see him have a long stretch of games.

He obviously has a number of areas to work on his game such as building up his tank, more intensity in his defensive efforts and work on his set shots. I don't believe he has a fundamentally bad set shot technique but just needs a few little tweaks. He tends to poke them from shorter distances and needs to cut through breeze better as well.

Having said that, once it all comes together he will be great for the saints. He will provide great presence as a focal point in the forward line and improve the forward line structure by freeing up other forwards. I feel that he also has the scope in the future to act as a big bodied mid on occasions due to his size and very good field kicking.

 

[markm106]

We have to show McCartin time. Personally think Petracca will be the better player but it's hard to find good key forwards.
McCartin I think will get there. To what level I'm not sure. I don't think he will be as good as Hogan and Lynch. And personally I think Moore will be better once he gets more size and strength.

 

[Roadto2018]

Trading 1 and 21 for 4 and 7 would've netted us Wright and Laverde. I know Wright is better now and has better athletic traits but I feel Paddy is a smarter player, hopefully Mccartin is better but I guess we'll see, as long as he becomes our main man and kicks a decent amount of goals in conjunction with Bruce and Membrey then I don't think we'll regret the pick. Although it must be said that had we known we'd have Bruce and Membrey and Riewoldt would play as long as he did I suspect we would've taken Petracca, anyway if Paddy hits his potential then I won't be the least bit concerned by what other players in that draft are doing. Mckenzie/Goddard over Miller will hurt more.

 

[blitzer]

Well it's pick 1, so you'd expect at least a top 5 player from the draft if not the very best. So far that's been Petracca, Lever, Heeney, Wright, Moore.

You could make the argument that Heeney was unavailable and Petracca didn't fit the needs.

You could also stretch it a bit and say you had Goddard planned so drafting 2 KPDs (Lever) was redundant.

To go 1 step further, it's debatable but let's just assume at this point in time Stkilda still rates Mccartin over Moore.

Then, what about Wright?

Wright kicked goals, contributed to the rucks and had plenty of contested marks per game on a team with extremely poor midfield and I50 delivery. Wright is miles ahead of Mccartin.

At this point my power ranking would be
1. Christian Petracca
2. Peter Wright
3. Isaac Heeney
4. Jack Lever
5. Darcy Moore
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Mccartin
8. Jack Steele
9. Caleb Marchbank
10. Angus Brayshaw/Jordan De Goey/Lachie Weller

Sure there has been worse picks (Pickett, Ahern, Garlett), but Mccartin at pick 1 definitely seem like a sub-par choice at best.

I think your power rankings are pretty fair but when evaluating the first pick against that you can't include Moore and Heeney who were not really available. I also think it was quite reasonable of the Saints to prioritise a key forward - there was no reason to suspect that Riewoldt would still be playing such great footy into his mid 30s and even so they will eventually need that key forward.

I reckon if you grab someone who is in the top 5 of available players with pick 1 that's pretty good in general.

On another note the 2014 draft looks mediocre if you compare it to any of the 2012, 2013 or 2015 years.

 

[saintscott]

7 sausage rolls for Sandy on the weekend and had a shot for his 8th taken off him for the blood rule.

Hardly AFL form, but forwards take a while to come on, he has only just turned 21. Certainly starting to put together some more dominant games. I'm still confident he becomes a very good forward in the next year or two ie Tex Walker good.