List Mgmt. 2015 AFL Draft - what type of players should we be looking at & who do we take? (Poll added)

Who would you select with our first round pick?

  • Joshua Schache (VIC – KPF)

    Votes: 57 12.8%
  • Jacob Weitering (VIC – KPD)

    Votes: 349 78.3%
  • Aaron Francis (SA – DEF/FWD)

    Votes: 6 1.3%
  • Charlie Curnow (VIC – KPF/MID)

    Votes: 9 2.0%
  • Kieran Collins (VIC – KPD)

    Votes: 6 1.3%
  • Ryan Clarke (VIC – MID/FWD)

    Votes: 7 1.6%
  • Darcy Parish (VIC – MID/DEF)

    Votes: 6 1.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 6 1.3%

  • Total voters
    446
  • Poll closed .
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HARKER

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I really like mckay, he is born late december, and is a week off being in the 2016 draft. Cal Twomey said if he was a week younger we would be talking about him being the prospective number 1 pick next year. Could get a potential number 1 pick and KPF at pick 8/11. He will probably need 3 years at NB before having an impact at afl however.
McKay wouldn't surprise at all, given where he is and where we are. Would have to give him a few years to develop.

Would make for an interesting situation should we take H. McKay along with Weitering & Silvagni.......all late December birthdays.
 

Blue87

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Should we be at all worried about not having enough points for Jack? Would hate to see a Silvagni playing in different colours, it l's just not right!! Im not 100% about the situation and what it would take to get him if another team takes him earlier than our pick 59
 

Blue__Balls

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Should we be at all worried about not having enough points for Jack? Would hate to see a Silvagni playing in different colours, it l's just not right!! Im not 100% about the situation and what it would take to get him if another team takes him earlier than our pick 59
Take a look at my two posts on the previous page, Blue - we're all good for SOSOS.
 

Azul

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McKay wouldn't surprise at all, given where he is and where we are. Would have to give him a few years to develop.

Would make for an interesting situation should we take H. McKay along with Weitering & Silvagni.......all late December birthdays.
What's the upside on McKay and how does he compare to Schache?

I mean obviously "pick 2" has jumped out of the blocks but Stig and others have made the point that being a 200cm man-child dominating against 17yos doesn't necessarily translate to instant success, as the 6 million dollar man Tom Boyd has found in his first 2 years of AFL.
 

Blue__Balls

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What's the upside on McKay and how does he compare to Schache?

I mean obviously "pick 2" has jumped out of the blocks but Stig and others have made the point that being a 200cm man-child dominating against 17yos doesn't necessarily translate to instant success, as the 6 million dollar man Tom Boyd has found in his first 2 years of AFL.
I still think Schache has been over-hyped by the Brisbane link.

If they had pick 5, we'd be talking about him being a top five player. They've got pick 2, and want him because he fills a need and has limited go-home risk, hence he's touted as the second best player in the draft.

I don't think he'll be much better than Weideman, McKay, Burton etc.
 
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pick 1 - Weitering is a LOCK

pick 8 - whoever is available out of Weideman,Francis,Curnow

pick 11 - best mid available

pick 19 - Rioli, Milera etc Really want a small forward with this pick.

As supporters we will do it tough again in 2016, we need some excitement around the place and someone to fill the voids left in our hearts by the departure of the 3 amigo's. Small forwards are usually ready to go, we desperately need some forward pressure and some magical goals to put bums on seats. Make it happen SOS!
 

Azul

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I don't think he'll be much better than Weideman, McKay, Burton etc.
Obviously we need a key forward but the options at 8 and 11 sound just a little 'meh'.

I think our midfield needs a boost too, so if there's still a reasonable KPF expected to available at 19, it'd be worth gambling on such a slider.

1 tall
8, 11 best available mid
19 tall

But of course it depends on how our recruiters rate 'em naturally and I know nothing! :p
 

Blue__Balls

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pick 1 - Weitering is a LOCK

pick 8 - whoever is available out of Weideman,Francis,Curnow

pick 11 - best mid available

pick 19 - Rioli, Milera etc Really want a small forward with this pick.

As supporters we will do it tough again in 2016, we need some excitement around the place and someone to fill the voids left in our hearts by the departure of the 3 amigo's. Small forwards are usually ready to go, we desperately need some forward pressure and some magical goals to put bums on seats. Make it happen SOS!
Sumner and Lamb will play the small forward role, I suspect.

you're right that small forwards can usually come straight in - so we're probably best to get the talls and quality mids now, give Sumner and Lamb a chance to shine, and then if required we can draft a quality small in year 2 or 3 of the rebuild.
 

Blue__Balls

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Obviously we need a key forward but the options at 8 and 11 sound just a little 'meh'.

I think our midfield needs a boost too, so if there's still a reasonable KPF expected to available at 19, it'd be worth gambling on such a slider.

1 tall
8, 11 best available mid
19 tall

But of course it depends on how our recruiters rate 'em naturally and I know nothing! :p
Yeah, I agree.

Weitering, sliding talent, best available mid, best available player.

Hoping that 8 nets us one of Curnow, Francis, or Oliver.

Then at 11 we nab Clarke, Mathieson or Oliver if he's still there.

19 to go on a sliding tall if we rate them, otherwise we go for a no-frills mid like Gresham.
 
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For those trying to wrap their heads around the Academy/Father-Son system, here's a little something to mull over.

Mills – bid at Pick 3 – costs Sydney 1787 points after the discount.
Sydney have Picks 33, 36, 37, 44, 54 and 69.
Pick 33 (563 points) becomes Pick 3, pushing everyone between 3 and 32 back one spot.
Deficit points (1224) consume picks 36 and 37, and move pick 44 back to pick 62.
Everyone between 38 and 63 move up two spots, and picks 64 onwards move up 1 spot.

Rinse and repeat for Hopper, Kennedy, Keays, Hipwood and maybe Dunkley.

The interesting part of this is that an early bid for Mills actually pushes GWS’s pick 10 back to pick 11, decreasing it’s value by 66 points.

It’s much smarter for clubs to hoard late picks, because they’re likely to move UP the draft as multiple picks are consumed for early bids, rather than having early picks moved back by late picks dropping in.

Our picks 59 and 60 could quite conceivably move up to the early 50’s, because there are multiple picks owned by Brisbane, GWS and Sydney that will be taken out of the draft entirely to match early bids.

Brisbane have picks 38, 39, 40, 41 and 42. Two of these will move up, but three will probably disappear or drop back substantially.

GWS have picks 10, 34, 43, 53, 55 and 58. Two move up, three or four disappear/move back.

As above, Sydney likely to lose two and drop one back.

This would move our picks up nine or ten places, conservatively giving us picks 50 and 51.

This in turn covers us for a bid on SOSOS from pick 29 onwards!
This makes it so hard for teams to judge as they can't know where the bids will be made so they have to hoard more points than they need and potentially give up a decent live pick to do so when ultimately they don't need to.

Can you select the player yourself instead of waiting on a bid? If you expected a bid in the range of your pick but were relying on that pick to pay for that player, do you just select them yourself without the discount knowing you can't pay for the points after that point?
 

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Bic

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as always, I'm not even going to pretend I know any of these kids. Would love to know how many people here have actually seen them play.

Give me Weitering ( i believe the hype) and whoever Sin tells me we want

Standard
Last year I started to watch a lot and really started to get into it the more I knew Carlton would languish on the bottom for a few more years...

Best advice I can say is to take in other scouts (amateur or not) opinions. Everyone sees the game differently. Nobody rated Zac Dawson and Ross Lyon has taken him everywhere with him!

We have gaps all around the ground, so wouldn't surprise me if we pick best available on every live pick we have.

FWIW - This is currently my projected top 11 - and who I am hoping at 19.

Pick 1- Jacob Weitering (get excited...)
Pick 2- Joshua Schache (Brisbane)
Pick 3- Darcy Parish (Melbourne)
Pick 4- Callum Mills (Sydney) * Bid
Pick 5- Jacob Hopper (GWS) * Bid
Pick 6- Aaron Francis (*)
Pick 7- Charlie Curnow (*)
Pick 8- Matthew Kennedy (GWS) GCS Bid
Pick 9- Hard to say what GCS pick here (Mathison could be plucked here)
Pick 10- Sam Weideman (Melb)
Pick 11- Rhys Mathieson (Carlton)
Pick 12- Wayne Milera (Adelaide)
Pick 13- Harley Balic (Carlton)
---
Pick 19*- Collins/McKay/Oliver/Gresham

Wouldn't surprise me if Balic goes a little higher. Seems to have one of the bigger scopes for improvement and seems one of the better "outside" players with scope of developing his inside game. He is someone I hope we get.

Mathieson/Balic for our Picks 8/11 (or whatever they end up being) would be a very nice get.

Pick 19, I am comfortable with best available. If it is another mid, so be it.
 
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Sumner and Lamb will play the small forward role, I suspect.

you're right that small forwards can usually come straight in - so we're probably best to get the talls and quality mids now, give Sumner and Lamb a chance to shine, and then if required we can draft a quality small in year 2 or 3 of the rebuild.
That makes to much sense to argue ;) and i understand the club must be strategic but also must take into account selling memberships and putting bums on seats.. Quite often these types can be had with lower picks or even rookie selections (see Betts, Milne etc) so that may be a path we will take with list spots at a premium.
 

Blue__Balls

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This makes it so hard for teams to judge as they can't know where the bids will be made so they have to hoard more points than they need and potentially give up a decent live pick to do so when ultimately they don't need to.

Can you select the player yourself instead of waiting on a bid? If you expected a bid in the range of your pick but were relying on that pick to pay for that player, do you just select them yourself without the discount knowing you can't pay for the points after that point?
Would make it interesting.

Hypothetical - nobody bids on Hopper or Kennedy before pick 11 (GWS's first given Sydney have moved up for Mills). GWS take the non-academy player of their choice (let's say Burton). Bids then come for Hopper and Kennedy at picks 12 and 13. GWS have picks 34, 43, 51, 53, 56, 61, 63, 64 and 69 remaining.

Pick 12 = 1268 points.
20% discount = 1015 points owing.
Pick 34 moves to Pick 12.
Pick 43 disappears.
Pick 51 moves to pick 59.

A whole lot of shuffling occurs.

GWS now have Burton, Hopper, and picks 51, 54, 60, 62, 63, 68.

Pick 13 = 1212 points.
20% discount = 970 points owing.
All remaining picks are used, and GWS still owe 51 points, which carries over to 2016 Round 1.


In this case, it's probably worth them taking the extra player this year, as they'd have to make the Grand Final to end up with a pick which would be affected by a 51 point reduction.

However it goes to show just how much planning needs to go into the acquisition of late picks when you're chasing top end academy talent.
 

Blue By Blood

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I'm not sold on Mathieson. Every time I see him he is always under pressure and forced to rush his disposal. For those that have seen a bit more of him play, does he manage to get on the outside and link up for some cheap/damaging possession?
 

Bic

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I'm not sold on Mathieson. Every time I see him he is always under pressure and forced to rush his disposal. For those that have seen a bit more of him play, does he manage to get on the outside and link up for some cheap/damaging possession?
He is better inside but can most definitely link up on the outside. His disposal (by foot) is however, suspect and would not say damaging.

The perfect comparison that everyone says is Jordan Lewis. It is hard to argue against it.
 

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Knightmare on Oliver:
Aggression – Oliver has a real aggression to him. When he bumps you, tackles you or charges at the ball with the intent to win it, he is going in hard and you’ll feel it. He’ll willingly hurt guys going after the ball. It’s just the way he is.

Would love a couple of midfielders like this with no bell & robbo
If we can get Smith ignoring the aggression bit a bit more and play with the skill we know he has, and get in Oliver, then we have two guys, who quite possibly along with Cripps, Holman, and Graham are going to turn into tackle machines who genuinely put the hurt on the guys that they tackle.

I just felt that Smith tried to go in too hard this year and it detracted from his ability with the ball.
 

Soapy V

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pick 1 - Weitering is a LOCK

pick 8 - whoever is available out of Weideman,Francis,Curnow

pick 11 - best mid available

pick 19 - Rioli, Milera etc Really want a small forward with this pick.

As supporters we will do it tough again in 2016, we need some excitement around the place and someone to fill the voids left in our hearts by the departure of the 3 amigo's. Small forwards are usually ready to go, we desperately need some forward pressure and some magical goals to put bums on seats. Make it happen SOS!
I like it but not sure about small forward with pick 19.
That makes to much sense to argue ;) and i understand the club must be strategic but also must take into account selling memberships and putting bums on seats.. Quite often these types can be had with lower picks or even rookie selections (see Betts, Milne etc) so that may be a path we will take with list spots at a premium.
i reckon smith & thomas could play small forward as well. with a deeper midfiled they could all rotate through the forward line. gives options and is more dangerous.
 

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I don't think we should be using first round picks on small mids or small forwards. They'll generally slide anyway, see Caleb Daniel.
Betts & Garlett in PSD / Rookie drafts.
Plus IMO you're better off getting your KPP & ball winning mids in place before worrying about the rest.
The problem is that we only have 4 real live picks in this draft. I would be more interested in getting balance rather than trying to build a spine.

And really... the rookie draft is where you take your speculative talls rather thank trying to pick up speculative smalls... although admittedly, Betts and Garlett are the exceptions to the rule. Go and check on all the rookie drafted players who have gone on to be promoted to the senior list and go on to play 100+ games. I think that you will find that the majority of them were talls.
 
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Would make it interesting.

Hypothetical - nobody bids on Hopper or Kennedy before pick 11 (GWS's first given Sydney have moved up for Mills). GWS take the non-academy player of their choice (let's say Burton). Bids then come for Hopper and Kennedy at picks 12 and 13. GWS have picks 34, 43, 51, 53, 56, 61, 63, 64 and 69 remaining.

Pick 12 = 1268 points.
20% discount = 1015 points owing.
Pick 34 moves to Pick 12.
Pick 43 disappears.
Pick 51 moves to pick 59.

A whole lot of shuffling occurs.

GWS now have Burton, Hopper, and picks 51, 54, 60, 62, 63, 68.

Pick 13 = 1212 points.
20% discount = 970 points owing.
All remaining picks are used, and GWS still owe 51 points, which carries over to 2016 Round 1.


In this case, it's probably worth them taking the extra player this year, as they'd have to make the Grand Final to end up with a pick which would be affected by a 51 point reduction.

However it goes to show just how much planning needs to go into the acquisition of late picks when you're chasing top end academy talent.
Okay. They have done well to stockpile those later picks then. If that doesn't factor in the bumping up of picks from other academy selections, they probably make up those 51 points anyway.

They seem to have worked it our perfectly. I can see the potential for some teams to stockpile too many points and potentially cost themselves a decent live pick in the process.

It's different. Kind of exciting but a little cumbersome at the same time. Hope it goes smoothly on draft night or else they will have to change it to a pre-draft bidding meeting.

They are doing a trial run though. I wonder if teams will use realistic bids in that trial run to give an indication of what they may do for the real thing. If so, the real run might just be for the cameras.
 

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carlton have picks 1,8,11,19,59,60
jacob weitering 195 cm 93 kg should be taken at pick 1 is a gun
pick 8 weidenman, curnow, francis doubt they will slide tho.
so there are really good prospects to look at for pick 8
Ryan burton 191cm 88kg forward who didnt play this year but if he did they reckon he would of been touted as a top 5 selection. he can take hangers, kick goals on both feet and steps up in big moments. he has also got designs on becoming a big bodied midfielder in the future ran 3.09 in the 20 metre sprint at the combine. as a bottom age kid he kicked 5 goals and took 10 marks for sa vs wa in round one.

harley balic as been touted as a top ten pick all year around the pick 7 to 11 mark is a creative half forward and midfielder with class and competiveness thrown in is 187cm 80 kg was in all australian honours this year.

kieran collins 194cm 100kg born in december but already a mature body between pick 10 to 15 he should go.good intercept mark and kicking does offer offensive drive if us get him your backline will be set up for the next 10 years.

Rhys mathesion as been touted to be drafted between pick 7 to 15 but his draft stocks went down when he tested poorly at the draft combine but is more of a natural footballer then athlete. 186 cm 82 kg hard tackling contested ball beast puts his head where u wouldnt even put your boot. would be good partners in crime with cripps two bulls.

mitch hibberb 191cm 85kg is an over ager been touted between pick 10 to 20 but essendon are really interested in him so u never know so is gold coast apprantly so could free up curnow, weideman, francis ran a good beep test 15.4 beep test and top three for time trial ran 10 minutes 2 seconds shows poise on both feet and was among the best in goal kicking.

harry mckay 200cm 95kg toued between pick 15 to 20 key forward chop out ruck.

daniel rioli would be a good selection at pick 19 touted to be early second round pick. has a bit of x factor, good mix of endurance and speed tested really well at the dfraft combine top 10 vetical jump won repeat 30 sprint 24.15 seconds beep test 14.6 and 2.89 seconds for 20 metre sprint.

clayton oliver midfielder 187cm 86kg won the morrish medal is a toughn brutal midfielder who enjoys the hard stuff. can go forward take a good mark and kick a goal. plenty of development left in him tested well at the draft combine ran 8.11 seconds agility test and ran 2.99 seconds 20 metre sprint. hard to say where he would go anywhere between pick 10 to 25 would be a steal at pick 19

jade gresham 178cm 777kg midfielder test well at the draft combine with goal kicking, kicking and clean hands test barely wastes a diposal ran 14.1 beep test three seconds 20 metre sprint as good leadership qualities between pick 15 to 20 would be a good selection at 19.

ryan clarke 185cm 84kg is a hard working midfielder relies in his work ethic to work from one end to another, can push forward and kick a goal. hids best game was in the semi final had 30 disposals, nine marks, six clearences and 10 inside 50s should have a good impact at afl level.

thats my opinion whlo would be good to take at picks 1, 8 ,11, 19 and us will most likely take sos jnr son of a gun.
1 weitering
pick 8 to 11 ryan burton, harley balic, kieran collins, rhys mathieson, mitch hibberb clayton oliver
pick 19 clayton oliver jade gresham ryan clake and daniel rioli.
but if u select weitering pick 1
collins pick 11 us will have your backline set for the next 10 years with plowman
thats means ryan burton pick 8 to go forward with jaksch and kreuzer and casbolt and sos junior.seeing kreuzer play more forward then in the ruck since philpps is there kreuzer can kick goals
and 19 to help cripps either clayton oliver ryan clarke or jade gresham.
if u dont pick collin s jaksch can play backline good as well so
then i reckon weitering
burton
mathieson
rioli
or balic
mathieson
either clayton oliver or ryan clarke
or burton
collins
jade gresham, ryan clarke, clayton oliver
 

Blue__Balls

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Okay. They have done well to stockpile those later picks then. If that doesn't factor in the bumping up of picks from other academy selections, they probably make up those 51 points anyway.

They seem to have worked it our perfectly. I can see the potential for some teams to stockpile too many points and potentially cost themselves a decent live pick in the process.

It's different. Kind of exciting but a little cumbersome at the same time. Hope it goes smoothly on draft night or else they will have to change it to a pre-draft bidding meeting.

They are doing a trial run though. I wonder if teams will use realistic bids in that trial run to give an indication of what they may do for the real thing. If so, the real run might just be for the cameras.
Was going to push up their later picks even further for the other academy selections, but presumably the bids for Keays and Hipwood won't come til after the bids for Hopper and Kennedy. So the only things that improve GWS's draft position are Mills and whichever of their Academy kids comes first.

I wonder if they've retained 10 just in case this eventuates. Can't see it getting to pick 11 without a bid coming for Hopper at the very least, but if they didn't see it as a possibility they may have been better off trying to offload it for later picks as well.

I'm sure they've got some software that does all this for them, but for those of us on the outside, it's an absolute nightmare to try and analyse.

Mills should be easy - Melbourne will likely bid at 3 knowing that Sydney are committed. Though Brisbane might throw a spanner in the works by calling his name at 2.

The others could be off by a few picks either way, which will flow on to everything else in the draft.
 
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