2015 - AFL Finals Week 1

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Can we keep this about sport rather than this petty stuff?

EDIT:

For my bets I have;

Multi 1:
Hawks 1-39 (2.25)
Richmond SU (1.64)

Multi 2:
WC 1-39 (2.6)
Richmond SU (1.64)

Multi 3:
WC (2.1)
Crows (1.92)
Richmond (1.64)

Only flaw I see is if Rich get rolled.

 

[banana_bus]

Priddis in doubt for tonight with a thigh injury apparently.

 

[vdub]

Noone got any idea. Can we all agree adelaides going to win or hawks?

 

[vdub]

The afl app predicts west coast, adelaide, richmond, fremantle by 14-19 points. Be interesting.

On ladbrokes favs are hawks fremantle adelaide richmond. 5-20 points.

Im proly gunna bunch a heap together along these lines but still havent decided.

 

[Mazza12346]

Every year first week of finals that there is an injury scare, Matt Priddis i can assure you will play.

 

[X_box_X]

I agree.

Market has overreacted to the suggestion that he "might" miss. Why has Hawthorn gone from $1.88 to $1.75 based on something that "probably won't" eventuate. The market has basically reacted based on him not playing. I can't see Hawthorn going any shorter than $1.75 if he is a confirmed out.

 

[Mazza12346]

I agree.

Market has overreacted to the suggestion that he "might" miss. Why has Hawthorn gone from $1.88 to $1.75 based on something that "probably won't" eventuate. The market has basically reacted based on him not playing. I can't see Hawthorn going any shorter than $1.75 if he is a confirmed out.

Every bloody year there is crap like this, he will play a blinder in the wet and tough conditions. Man if there was a game in his 200 game career the eagles would desperately want him to play it will a slog fest like tonight

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

$100 WC SU @$2.15 SB special

 

[Mazza12346]

Is the game an 8.20 start time in Melb

 

[banana_bus]

I agree.

Market has overreacted to the suggestion that he "might" miss. Why has Hawthorn gone from $1.88 to $1.75 based on something that "probably won't" eventuate. The market has basically reacted based on him not playing. I can't see Hawthorn going any shorter than $1.75 if he is a confirmed out.

Yeah that was quick. I think he'll play, but if he doesn't odds are right as they are now.

 

[Mazza12346]

jeez the hawks in 30 cents in an hour.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I'll probably end up with 0 after this but this week looks really obvious...Hawthorn, Fremantle, North & Adelaide just win IMO.

 

[bombers21]

jeez the hawks in 30 cents in an hour.

Rumour that Priddis is out

 

[NutnButAPnut]

WC 1-39 @$4 on sportsbet under cross country

 

[Langa]

2.60 seems pretty poor odds given they're 1.80+ this week, if they win and you just roll your bets over on the prelim and gf you'll end up with much more than that.

Not necessarily. If the hawks win this week you'll be lucky to get $1.40 for them to win the flag. 2 home games at the MCG, they're not going to be $1.40 in any of their last two games. Probably around the $1.15 to $1.25 mark.

Example

win tonight and you plonk 1000 at $1.80 giving you a sum of 1800 bux.

1.25 for prelim x 1800 = $2250


Grand final price lets say hawks are $1.30 again I'd doubt that if they've knocked off wce already or play the dockers or anyone else


$2250 x $1.30 = $2925


If they starts as 1.20 favourites in their last two games then you will get $2592 which is less than cranking on the original $1000 and that's probably more realistic of what they will be should they win tonight.

 

[Hawkies]

jeez the hawks in 30 cents in an hour.

Really? Who with? WH/sportsbet have only dropped 3cents

 

[Mazza12346]

Really? Who with? WH/sportsbet have only dropped 3cents

This morning there were 1.95 with tab there 1.67 now

 

[Dominion]

Not necessarily. If the hawks win this week you'll be lucky to get $1.40 for them to win the flag. 2 home games at the MCG, they're not going to be $1.40 in any of their last two games. Probably around the $1.15 to $1.25 mark.

Example

win tonight and you plonk 1000 at $1.80 giving you a sum of 1800 bux.

1.25 for prelim x 1800 = $2250


Grand final price lets say hawks are $1.30 again I'd doubt that if they've knocked off wce already or play the dockers or anyone else


$2250 x $1.30 = $2925


If they starts as 1.20 favourites in their last two games then you will get $2592 which is less than cranking on the original $1000 and that's probably more realistic of what they will be should they win tonight.

What? no. You think they would be 1.20 in a grand final? c'mon man. You would 100% make more than 2.60 going all up semi into prelim into GF. As you should, because the 2.60 price also includes results where they lose the semi but still go all the way the long way.

 

[Keystone agony]

Not much rain here in perth guys i think that helps the hawks.

Seems to be coming mostly after the game or late in the game.

 

[Mudeo]

Most Disposals/Most Tackles market - (Crownbet)
Gaff/Shiels @ 11
1u

 

[bombers21]

The line of 154.5 is ridiculously low tonight. They are covering this with ease

3 units on over 154.5 @ $1.95

 

[NutnButAPnut]

The line of 154.5 is ridiculously low tonight. They are covering this with ease

3 units on over 154.5 @ $1.95

Will likely get on aswell... managed to get under 178.5 early on WH so a 4 goal gap looks a decent shot. First time going for a middle! Tips expert betters? Should i just match my under 178 bet, different bookie/same bookie?

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

4U over 154.5 @$1.95
Wow that line is low.
Not much rain guys

 

[chrisdon16]

Afternoon gentlemen. Wasn't going to post bets this week but after doing some research I found a few markets with (IMO) great value:

WC/Hawks - highest scoring half 2nd (2U@1.70)
Sydney - O8.5 behinds (2U@$1.90)
Sydney - O10.5 behinds (1U@$3.60)

Good luck chaps.

 

[ricardogp]

4U over 154.5 @$1.95
Wow that line is low.
Not much rain guys

Tailed. Assuming you got that price at WA TAB? Better price than SB!

Also 4u on both teams to score 60 @ $1.51

Currently nice and sunny. Only seen one weather report but looks like the first half of the game should be dry at least.