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2015 - AFL Round 20

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bombersbackyard said:
Long time lurker checking in. Good to see some of you guys getting on the William Hill click to call free bet, enjoy them while they last. I hope you win lots of money of them. They recently banned me from all promos which is weird because I barely use any from them, all
Of them are pretty rubbish. They also started offering me $1.85 lines once I log in, which pretty much means I've stopped betting with them all together. Amazing how bookies can pick and choose what customers they want and what odds they can offer them.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm banned from all promotions with them as well and click to call betting. They suck.
 
bombersbackyard said:
Long time lurker checking in. Good to see some of you guys getting on the William Hill click to call free bet, enjoy them while they last. I hope you win lots of money of them. They recently banned me from all promos which is weird because I barely use any from them, all
Of them are pretty rubbish. They also started offering me $1.85 lines once I log in, which pretty much means I've stopped betting with them all together. Amazing how bookies can pick and choose what customers they want and what odds they can offer them.
Click to expand...


From what I read it seems these bookies are hammering down restrictions lately. 365 and Luxbet are the main culprits. Its B.S as it really is a form a discrimination and should be laws against it. They're the ones settings the odds, they shouldn't be able to pick and choose who bets.
 
daniel_4tw said:
Thinking of putting some serious money on GWS...

Surely Port have put the cue in the rack.

Any reason I should be cautious?
Click to expand...

For me
1) On top of losing Mumford and Shiel, GWS are now without Treloar, Coniglio and Scully. That's a huge whack of their midfield. Port without Wines and Polec, but they have the better midfield out of the respective 22's lining up

2) GWS only won 3 games away from home - close win v Saints rnd 1, flogged Blues, close win over GC. Not the greatest away form.

Probably a no bet game for me.
 
Good job to all those who got on Sydney 1-39 or Collingwood +20, no way could you lay -20 with sydney, they look cooked. Sad to see Parker out for the season. Story of Collingwood last two months; they haven't been able to kick straight and it's been costing them games. All the favourites look pretty safe today which is a worry (besides the Brisbane/Carlton game, wouldn't touch that game with a 10ft pole) I'm sure one of the teams will let us down so be weary of multi-ing them all.

For today I have 1U on port -14.5, I feel with the changes ken Hinkley is making he's sending a message to the playing group if you're not up to par you will get cut. Even though there season is done they are playing for pride and there careers, considering the effort that was dished up last week I'm expecting a response. GWS were terrible against Essendon and are nowhere near the level they were playing at the start of the year and as a young team they don't travel to well. I've thought about a nice middle with +25.5 but I feel if port show up they should win easily.

I also have 1U on nm -28.5 against st kilda, even though they haven't played any good teams in the last month they've been pretty good at covering the spread against Geelong (outright underdog win), Essendon if you got on at -24, the line closed at -29 (highlights how getting in early can be the difference of winning and losing), brisbane and Carlton easily, Melbourne actually put up a fight but they ended up covering late. Saints look done for the year, quite a few injuries mounting up and they've been pretty terrible post bye. The game is also in tassy which is advantage roos. If the Roos are serious about their September aspirations they should win easily. You can never be sure about putting your money on North so tread carefully.

The line of the Essendon and Adelaide game looks pretty sharp. I don't think we can win, We are soooo bad lol. We have about half the team under 50 games, I don't think our vfl kids are up to scratch. We are tanking and rebuilding, best game in the last two months was against Melbourne and they couldn't kick straight that day. Adelaide really should win, I just don't know whether to lay -24 or go 1-39. No margin is safe with us because we give up real easy and I don't think Hird knows how to coach. I think adel are starting to believe they can salvage something from the season and are pretty motivated. I thought after the Sydney game they would pack it in for the year but now they genuinely feel they can make finals.

not touching the Brisbane and Carlton game.

Hopefully the Saturday night game is good. Hawks 1-39 looks like the play, -28 is too much to lay especially hawthorn coming back from a wet game in the west. Geelong are in decent form and would want to make up for the round 1 debacle. If the Hawks are on they can easily win 40+ But I feel this game will be a 2-3 goal win to hawthorn. Duncan has been withdrawn from the team.

With the freo team named it looks like RTB is going for the win, I'd wait for the teams in the day in case he pulls anything shady, freo 1-39 looks good, wait for the weather too, I think it could be wet. Freo went through a month of wet footy mid season while the Eagles played in some wet last weekend. Lecras, mcgovern, natanui are all huge outs, one of there best players from each part of the ground, freo are pretty much full strength. Freo may finally achieve parity and derbys are always a statement game over here. Eagles were actually leading against the Hawks until the 4th quarter so they've been pretty impressive. I just feel freo have dominated the Eagles the last 6 derbys, I think the 1-39 freo margin has hit in all of them. This derby should be another close one, especially if it's wet. Everyone in Perth is talking about it 1v2 blah blah blah.

Anyway gents hopefully we can all hit some form heading into the finals and best of luck with all your wagers :)
 

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BILC said:
Richmond just don't put teams away, and have only won 1 of 4 against GC.

All 4 have been in QLD though, could be a different story at the G.
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Most of richmonds good wins have been away too (besides beating the Hawks there)

The lines crept out from -29 to -35, probably best to stay away now. Good on those who got on earlier in the week.
 
Zealbee said:
Bet365 have it as well and it's actually quicker on their website.
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Thanks for the heads up, don't actually have an acc with them since they exclude wa from the deposit bonus. I may send them an email saying a friend mentioned you have c2c and it's quicker then William hill blah blah and if they had any deposit bonuses. If you don't ask you won't receive haha.
 
1U Petrie 3+ goals $2.25
.25U Murphy 35+ disposals $5
.25U Rockliff 35+ disposals $4.90
.25U Thompson 30+/Jenkins 3+ goals $4.60

I think Petrie should easy have 4-5 shots on goal, just hope he has his kicking boots on. Carlton and Brisbane will lack defence, and have been racking up big disposal totals in recent weeks with their main mids. As for Jenkins, he's been close recently, probably comes down to match ups for him or Lynch getting a few, hopefully Jenkins gets Steinberg. Thompson should get 30
 

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put some small amounts on other Adelaide lines to make today interesting.
think Adelaide shouldn't hold back & percentage could be the difference to make finals over geelong.
1u adel -26.5line @1.92
0.5u adel -40.5 @2.65
0.25u adel -56.5@4.80
0.25u adel -65.5@7.25
0.1u adel -75.5@11.50

Edit: also just found this on lads - footy freaks sp.
Walker to kick 3 goals and adelaide win @2.50
 
Last edited:
Robo87 said:
put some small amounts on other Adelaide lines to make today interesting.
think Adelaide shouldn't hold back & percentage could be the difference to make finals over geelong.
1u adel -26.5line @1.92
0.5u adel -40.5 @2.65
0.25u adel -56.5@4.80
0.25u adel -65.5@7.25
0.1u adel -75.5@11.50

Edit: also just found this on lads - footy freaks sp.
Walker to kick 3 goals and adelaide win @2.50
Click to expand...

Cheers for the Walker tip, tailed that. Rolling some of those winnings into Wingard to kick 3 or more and Port Adelaide to win @ 2.60.
 

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Robo87 said:
put some small amounts on other Adelaide lines to make today interesting.
think Adelaide shouldn't hold back & percentage could be the difference to make finals over geelong.
1u adel -26.5line @1.92
0.5u adel -40.5 @2.65
0.25u adel -56.5@4.80
0.25u adel -65.5@7.25
0.1u adel -75.5@11.50

Edit: also just found this on lads - footy freaks sp.
Walker to kick 3 goals and adelaide win @2.50
Click to expand...

Good call mate. Beers on you my friend.
 
Atavistic said:
I think Carlisle will go to Tex - possibly swapping with Hooker at some point during the game - and Pears and Spudberg will match up on Jenkins and Lynch. I may be wrong, of course, but I'm putting $5 each on Jenkins and Lynch to kick 3+ goals. Lynch is quite capable of kicking bags against spud teams. From reports, Pears hasn't even been playing well in the VFL, so this could get interesting.
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**** me, that was close (my bet, not the game). Won on Jenkins.
 
Robo87 said:
put some small amounts on other Adelaide lines to make today interesting.
think Adelaide shouldn't hold back & percentage could be the difference to make finals over geelong.
1u adel -26.5line @1.92
0.5u adel -40.5 @2.65
0.25u adel -56.5@4.80
0.25u adel -65.5@7.25
0.1u adel -75.5@11.50

Edit: also just found this on lads - footy freaks sp.
Walker to kick 3 goals and adelaide win @2.50
Click to expand...

Good stuff, mate. I regret not doing this myself. I usually load up against us, but close ones against Port and GWS left me feeling unsure about it.
 

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2015 - AFL Round 20

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