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2015 Brownlow

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stuziman said:
I've come out of BigFooty semi-retirement just to like and comment on this post.

LISTEN TO KP People!!!!! We will never see the errors in odds that we saw in 2010 ever again. The landscape has well and truly changed. The majority of bookmakers do their own counts, pay close attention to competitors odds and markets, pay for the better services out there so that they can predict markets and probably manipulate them to sucker people in to go against positions, and quickly react to the money flow and move odds fast or pull popular markets. With that being said, I actually think this year represents the best chance in the last few years for a return on team multis for people who have done a full count (something I have not done) because of the many chances at a select few teams. Good luck to anyone who can predict bombers, dogs, tigers, GWS and GC teams.

(IMO)
Click to expand...

Shill.
 
TheExtractorFactor said:
People keep mentioning these errors that existed in years past. Is anyone able to elaborate? It surprises me that bookies would be lazy in regards to a market as popular as the Brownlow, or was it far less popular then?
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Kane Cornes was heavy favourite for Port despite having a poor polling record and it widely acknowledged he has a limited impact on games. He was favourites because he had high quantities of disposals. Boak was at about $4 despite anyone who had paid close attention seeing he had a greater effect. Same with Frawley being favourite for Melbourne, had a great year, but would be like Rance being fav ahead of Cotchin/Martin this year. You could also get great odds for heavy pullers like Boyd/Hayes and a few others. Even absolute locks were at $1.50

I don't know if it wasn't popular before then, 2010 is all I know, but they didn't seem to understand who and why certain players would poll, rather than being lazy.
 

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In 2010 IIRC i bet $80 and won 3000

From memory had Sylvia and Riewoldt both got one more vote. That would've ended up being 12k and im pretty sure there was another maybe Davey from melb would've been 24k

Edit: couldn't have been both davey and sylvia
 
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I reckon even Kolodjashnij is worth a nibble at $21 for Suns most votes. As has been mentioned, it's up in the air and up to ten players could be between 3-7 votes.
 
TheExtractorFactor said:
People keep mentioning these errors that existed in years past. Is anyone able to elaborate? It surprises me that bookies would be lazy in regards to a market as popular as the Brownlow, or was it far less popular then?
Click to expand...
back in the day books openly allowed multis on most team votes, and coupled with the fact they were so off in the pricing (there were players at 1.30 that should have been 1.01 and a couple of 2.20 that should of been 1.30 etc), people absolutely cleaned up, which killed it for later years.
 
didn't have priddis on top of my 2014 count

doesn't mean i go around claiming i picked the winner.

Priddis Untitled.png
 
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Back a player in the Brownlow Winner market and if your player is 2nd to Fyfe money back up to $100. I think its only your first bet.
 

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stuziman said:
I've come out of BigFooty semi-retirement just to like and comment on this post.

LISTEN TO KP People!!!!! We will never see the errors in odds that we saw in 2010 ever again. The landscape has well and truly changed. The majority of bookmakers do their own counts, pay close attention to competitors odds and markets, pay for the better services out there so that they can predict markets and probably manipulate them to sucker people in to go against positions, and quickly react to the money flow and move odds fast or pull popular markets. With that being said, I actually think this year represents the best chance in the last few years for a return on team multis for people who have done a full count (something I have not done) because of the many chances at a select few teams. Good luck to anyone who can predict bombers, dogs, tigers, GWS and GC teams.

(IMO)
Click to expand...

It doesn't mean someone else out there couldn't have a more accurate algorithm in play.....

And given markets are going to be manipulated by the demand of the punter, it could make for an opportunity to take advantage of the market....
 
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