2015 Brownlow

[the_big_sav]

Is that in exact order or any order?

Excact

 

[nooblet]

The thing with Gaff is he hasnt had a breakout polling season, Beams in 2012 had a crazy good season and only polled 19. I have found that players need to have a couple of consistent polling seasons before they get enough votes to win.

it would actually be interesting to see if there is anything to the 'lag effect' regarding favourites.

probably wouldn't be that hard to look at, could just take the odds of the previous year and compare them to the following years count, then compare those results with the current odds and current year. (ie 2013 odds/2014 count vs 2014 odds/2014 count etc)

i'd probably do it myself if i cared about betting on the brownlow.

 

[iluvparis]

Gray was another to suffer from this 'curse' (either 2013 or 2014)

 

[happy_eagle]

What outside runners apart from Swan have polled well in the Brownlow recently ?

 

[terminators]

What outside runners apart from Swan have polled well in the Brownlow recently ?

Hanners with 21 in 2013 played outside that yr

Other than that none. Even Swan has been at stoppages a lot in the years he's polled well.

 

[SickQwon]

Heath Shaw $16 to poll the most votes for GWS

Could be a chance given he won the B&F

 

[KardiniaPark]

Heath Shaw $16 to poll the most votes for GWS

Could be a chance given he won the B&F

The B&F is usually a very good guide. I've had a small fortune on Mitch Rubbishbin to win the Brions.

 

[iluvparis]

Still remember that year I did all my dough after David Teague won the blues.

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I put $5 on h.shaw to get most team votes. Thanks whoever posted that.
I also put $2 on isaac smith at $101 to get most votes at hawks. I thought he had a great year.

It looks like it is hard to get value on the actual brownlow. Without putting a fair bit on. So I am passing.

 

[nooblet]

the amount you bet doesn't change the value.

 

[The Chieftain]

Doing a competition thing, cant pick these last two. Who do you guys think will poll more out of:
Sam Jacobs, Nic Naitanui or Aaron Sandilands

Tex Walker, Drew Petrie or Jeremy Cameron

 

[KardiniaPark]

I put $5 on h.shaw to get most team votes. Thanks whoever posted that.
I also put $2 on isaac smith at $101 to get most votes at hawks. I thought he had a great year.

It looks like it is hard to get value on the actual brownlow. Without putting a fair bit on. So I am passing.

Thank him for Shaw after the count when he's 11 behind the leader. #Value

 

[Duritz]

^^^ saucer of milk, table 12! Reeow!

 

[King Of Money]

My thoughts / hopes:

Mitchell for 2nd behind Fyfe......(currently $7 (winner w/o Fyfe) on Sportsbet).
Then the following trifectas (all boxed) for the LOLs:
Fyfe / Mitchell / Goldstein @ $29
Fyfe / Mitchell / JP Kennedy @ $41
Fyfe / Mitchell / Mundy @ $61

Good luck everyone.

 

[sledbomber]

I have put 150 on Hanners @ 1.7 to poll over 2.5 votes for rounds 17, 18 and 19. He won't poll in round 17 or 19 but in round 18 he gets the 3 with 40 touches and 3 goals in a 52 point win over the Crows.

Edit: With William Hill

 

[DT_35]

Armitage value at $5.50 for top 10?

 

[happy_eagle]

Armitage value at $4.50 for top 10?

Not good enough value to punt on

Top 5 most people think will be (in any order)
Fyfe
Priddis
Hannebery
Mitchell
Dangerfield

Then to fill up the remaining 5 you have a choice of the following
Mundy
Kennedy
Goldstein (still reckon he will underpoll)
Gaff
Martin
Gray
Neale
Armitage

 

[DT_35]

Sorry $5.50 top 10 my mistake

 

[Shinboner '07]

What most team votes do you guys reckon?

Some value in the following

Dustin Martin $2.25 (reckon he might just pip Deledio)
Shaun Higgins $3.00 (w/o Goldstein)
Josh Kennedy $3.30 (will be neck and neck with hanners)
Andrew Gaff $5.00 (priddis clear fav but gaff a real chance with a few BOGs)
Patrick Cripps $3.25

Thoughts?

 

[Gift]

What most team votes do you guys reckon?

Some value in the following

Dustin Martin $2.25 (reckon he might just pip Deledio)
Shaun Higgins $3.00 (w/o Goldstein)
Josh Kennedy $3.30 (will be neck and neck with hanners)
Andrew Gaff $5.00 (priddis clear fav but gaff a real chance with a few BOGs)
Patrick Cripps $3.25

Thoughts?

All very much possible. However will enough come up for you to make a profit.

 

[EightySix]

FYFE Brownlow winner
VINCE (mel)
HANNEBERY (syd)
MURPHY (carl)
HEPPELL (ess)

@ 9.81


GL to all for tonight.

 

[Hawkies]

5U Priddis over 2.5 votes in rounds 2, 3 and 4 @ 1.75 (William Hill)

Where do you see him getting votes in these games?

 

[Zealbee]

Where do you see him getting votes in these games?

I see him getting 2 votes in round 2 and 2-3 votes in round 4.

 

[kicksome]

https://crownbet.com.au/sports/aust...team-votes-gws-giants-20150928-154515-8873891

does this mean Heath Shaw is $41 to take out the GWS most votes?

 

[Zealbee]

https://crownbet.com.au/sports/aust...team-votes-gws-giants-20150928-154515-8873891

does this mean Heath Shaw is $41 to take out the GWS most votes?

Yes.