2015 Draft Discussion

[mpal6]

I wonder if we've avoided targeting QLDers in the past because we don't want to encourage other clubs to do it to us? It's a game we always lose because of the numbers.

Course, that policy hasn't really deterred clubs from poaching kids at all. But that might have been the theory?

QLD talent based on draft stats were very low earlier. It didn't make sense for us to pursue them, as you mentioned it could happen in reverse and our list could get cleaned out.

Academy has been a blessing, we need to follow through and start building the list with local talent. I was pushing this "all rookies will be picked from QLD" for which I got shouted down (yay I got to use this too).

I feel we should look closely at this rookie QLDers option as a pick in 100+ range can be surely used for a local kid instead of another interstate option. It is a speculative pick anyway, I'd rather pick up a Buzza this year than some unknown from Victoria/SA/WA.

 

[Bucking Beads]

I'm sure we drafted a fair few QLD kids and they ended up duds.

 

[mpal6]

I'm sure we drafted a fair few QLD kids and they ended up duds.

Agreed - but with academy we would know more about them now compared to say 10 years ago. I think Lions are better placed to take speculative picks these days with player development history handy. I believe we'll have more success this time around.

 

[SizeMatters]

Still a while to go with Allison. Keays had a better underage year and was regarded as a top 5 pick this season as well... now he is expected to have a bid on him mid to late first round. I would be highly surprised if Allison is still top 5 come end of next year.

 

[iBeng]

Speaking of QLD in drafts, according to the Wikipedia entry for the 2013 draft, NO QLDers were taken in the main draft. A couple of rookies picked up. Literally no one from QLD or NEAFL listed. May have been a few QLDer boys playing in other leagues though, but no locals.

 

[snooplions]

Loved seeing the centre bounce in the highlights where Keays won the contested ball and dished it off to Allison. Very promising midfield duo.

 

[POBT]

Speaking of QLD in drafts, according to the Wikipedia entry for the 2013 draft, NO QLDers were taken in the main draft. A couple of rookies picked up. Literally no one from QLD or NEAFL listed. May have been a few QLDer boys playing in other leagues though, but no locals.

We took Freeman.

Edit: technically, Oxley and Bell were in the 2013 draft as rookie elevations and Aliir Aliir went to Sydney from Qld (via the WAFL)

 

[POBT]

Just on that, one of the dumb things the AFL did with league expansion is to give Gold Coast exclusive access to every kid from Queensland. I have no doubt we took our eye of the ball in terms of identifying and developing local talent and, for the Gold Coast, it just wasn't a priority given they were getting quality youngsters from all over the country. As a result, there was a drop off in Qld talent getting onto AFL lists in the period of 2010-2012.

 

[Len S]

QLD talent based on draft stats were very low earlier. It didn't make sense for us to pursue them, as you mentioned it could happen in reverse and our list could get cleaned out.

Academy has been a blessing, we need to follow through and start building the list with local talent. I was pushing this "all rookies will be picked from QLD" for which I got shouted down (yay I got to use this too).

I feel we should look closely at this rookie QLDers option as a pick in 100+ range can be surely used for a local kid instead of another interstate option. It is a speculative pick anyway, I'd rather pick up a Buzza this year than some unknown from Victoria/SA/WA.

Too right mp. We have been able to see the leading Academy contenders ,in our reserves games as well as at state level. They have been closely scrutinised over time.

 

[Nunez]

Just on that, one of the dumb things the AFL did with league expansion is to give Gold Coast exclusive access to every kid from Queensland. I have no doubt we took our eye of the ball in terms of identifying and developing local talent and, for the Gold Coast, it just wasn't a priority given they were getting quality youngsters from all over the country. As a result, there was a drop off in Qld talent getting onto AFL lists in the period of 2010-2012.

Off*

 

[HowYouDoin]

Not logged on for a long time but regularly look on big footy forum. Seriously people, if we want a winning culture at the club, we as supporters should be leading the way. Lets stop the negative crap and have a positive outlook on moving forward. Positive or pountless

That's boring though. It's much more fun to fight amongst ourselves and towards collingwood supporters.

 

[whatboutbob]

Who is Jacob Allison? It was mentioned in an article in The Age that we don't want to trade our 2016 First Round or go into deficit as he is a very highly rated Academy prospect we will want to pick up.

Just on that, dlanod, is there actually a realistic scenario where the Lions getting Allison is actually threatened?

 

[jjami15]

I read an article earlier in the week about how Hawthorne had built their current team over five consecutive drafts and the trading came in later. The next best team had concentrated in the draft for 3. I think that this current draft we have the opportunity to do something fairly special. I'm not as bullish about trading so many B/C graders in. We have an opportunity to get a top ten pick from GWS by trading 'points' (which I read in another article) they currently have 8 and will have 7. 7 = 1644 and 8 = 1551. There is a way to trade up using picks as long as they're isn't a huge points difference and no club would do that anyway. Currently not sure what picks we would have to be able to do that but after trading Aish we should have enough to not only get the two academy boys but also another top ten pick. Something worth looking at IMO.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I read an article earlier in the week about how Hawthorne had built their current team over five consecutive drafts and the trading came in later. The next best team had concentrated in the draft for 3. I think that this current draft we have the opportunity to do something fairly special. I'm not as bullish about trading so many B/C graders in. We have an opportunity to get a top ten pick from GWS by trading 'points' (which I read in another article) they currently have 8 and will have 7. 7 = 1644 and 8 = 1551. There is a way to trade up using picks as long as they're isn't a huge points difference and no club would do that anyway. Currently not sure what picks we would have to be able to do that but after trading Aish we should have enough to not only get the two academy boys but also another top ten pick. Something worth looking at IMO.

I find it hard to see GWS downgrading their picks, they'd be hoping to sercure Hopper with their first, and have Kennedy slip past the Collingwood pick. This could see them sercuring another top 10 ", non academy player. I think it's too much to risk to downgrade for points, with no actual benefit to them.

 

[dlanod]

Just on that, dlanod, is there actually a realistic scenario where the Lions getting Allison is actually threatened?

Maybe if someone slips Conole some crack around November whatever next year?

If Allison is bid on with pick 1 and Brisbane trades out their first rounder, that'd probably do it.
If Allison is bid on with a very early first rounder and Brisbane trades out their first couple of picks, that'd probably do it.

But I think crack is the most likely scenario where we miss out on him.

 

[WA Lion]

Maybe if someone slips Conole some crack around November whatever next year?

If Allison is bid on with pick 1 and Brisbane trades out their first rounder, that'd probably do it.
If Allison is bid on with a very early first rounder and Brisbane trades out their first couple of picks, that'd probably do it.

But I think crack is the most likely scenario where we miss out on him.

And both of those scenarios rely on something not happening that seemingly happens most years - we get an extra early pick for losing a player

 

[iBeng]

Maybe if someone slips Conole some crack around November whatever next year?

If Allison is bid on with pick 1 and Brisbane trades out their first rounder, that'd probably do it.
If Allison is bid on with a very early first rounder and Brisbane trades out their first couple of picks, that'd probably do it.

But I think crack is the most likely scenario where we miss out on him.

Can we trade OURSELVES our first rounder for 2017 in the 2016 draft?

 

[Balony_pony16]

I read an article earlier in the week about how Hawthorne had built their current team over five consecutive drafts and the trading came in later. The next best team had concentrated in the draft for 3. I think that this current draft we have the opportunity to do something fairly special. I'm not as bullish about trading so many B/C graders in. We have an opportunity to get a top ten pick from GWS by trading 'points' (which I read in another article) they currently have 8 and will have 7. 7 = 1644 and 8 = 1551. There is a way to trade up using picks as long as they're isn't a huge points difference and no club would do that anyway. Currently not sure what picks we would have to be able to do that but after trading Aish we should have enough to not only get the two academy boys but also another top ten pick. Something worth looking at IMO.

Yeah I agree. Id be happy to try and get bell in, but after that we should really keep our options option for the draft

 

[mpal6]

Can we trade OURSELVES our first rounder for 2017 in the 2016 draft?

Throw in a player and you are on.

 

[Panthera]

OK. So after the influx of players in today .....it leaves us (currently) with picks 17, 39, 41 + 42 to secure Hipwood & Keays as academy acquisitions.

If Hipwood gets a pick #10 bid (1395 pts / 1116 pts with the 20% discount)
And Keays gets a pick #12 bid (1268pts / 1014 pts with the 20% discount)

And let's presume #39 is used to obtain Bastinac...leaving us with the below situation:

17. 1025 pts
41. 412 pts
42. 395 pts

So, needing 2130 pts; we have the above three picks totaling 1832 pts, a net deficit of only -298 pts.
Even if Allison attracts a bid as high as #5 in 2016; the 20% discount will be already greater than those 298 pts

Moving forward in the way our club wants to; is there any point taking a couple of 2nd rounders (or worse) if we're not into Astbury anymore?

A couple speculative picks vs sending a clear message to our young playing group / the AFL as a whole and player managers.....I know which I'd prefer

Se you in Navy blue next season Aishy!

 

[Balony_pony16]

OK. So after the influx of players in today .....it leaves us (currently) with picks 17, 39, 41 + 42 to secure Hipwood & Keays as academy acquisitions.

If Hipwood gets a pick #10 bid (1395 pts / 1116 pts with the 20% discount)
And Keays gets a pick #12 bid (1268pts / 1014 pts with the 20% discount)

And let's presume #39 is used to obtain Bastinac...leaving us with the below situation:

17. 1025 pts
41. 412 pts
42. 395 pts

So, needing 2130 pts; we have the above three picks totaling 1832 pts, a net deficit of only -298 pts.
Even if Allison attracts a bid as high as #5 in 2016; the 20% discount will be already greater than those 298 pts

Moving forward in the way our club wants to; is there any point taking a couple of 2nd rounders (or worse) if we're not into Astbury anymore?

A couple speculative picks vs sending a clear message to our young playing group / the AFL as a whole and player managers.....I know which I'd prefer

Se you in Navy blue next season Aishy!

Take the 2nd round picks. Lets be honest... "Sending a message" "Make an example" or how ever people spin it will have zero impact. It is all media crap to try and lift fans moral more then anything. We can hold players hostage.

I would be nice to explore the draft in the 2nd rounder and not just settle with the academy boys. Every year a few guns slide into the 2nd round

 

[Fatcat08]

OK. So after the influx of players in today .....it leaves us (currently) with picks 17, 39, 41 + 42 to secure Hipwood & Keays as academy acquisitions.

If Hipwood gets a pick #10 bid (1395 pts / 1116 pts with the 20% discount)
And Keays gets a pick #12 bid (1268pts / 1014 pts with the 20% discount)

And let's presume #39 is used to obtain Bastinac...leaving us with the below situation:

17. 1025 pts
41. 412 pts
42. 395 pts

So, needing 2130 pts; we have the above three picks totaling 1832 pts, a net deficit of only -298 pts.
Even if Allison attracts a bid as high as #5 in 2016; the 20% discount will be already greater than those 298 pts

Moving forward in the way our club wants to; is there any point taking a couple of 2nd rounders (or worse) if we're not into Astbury anymore?

A couple speculative picks vs sending a clear message to our young playing group / the AFL as a whole and player managers.....I know which I'd prefer

Se you in Navy blue next season Aishy!

Not 100% sure how you're interpreting the rules however just worth noting that if we go into deficit our pick moves back by the 298 point equivalent before the start of trade week next year.

Example below.

Pick 2 goes to pick 4
Pick 3 goes to pick 5
Pick 4 goes to pick 7
Pick 5 goes to pick 8
Pick 6 goes to pick 10
pick 7 goes to pick 11

etc etc

So if he was nominated at pick 5 we would need pick 8 at a minimum to not drop our second round pick back further which means we would need to have pick 5 at the end of the season as it would be pushed back to 8.

 

[Crawb]

Lol at the Norf faithful thinking they'll get Pick 17 and 26 for Bastinac if we trade Aish to Collingwood instead.

 

[M Malice]

OK. So after the influx of players in today .....it leaves us (currently) with picks 17, 39, 41 + 42 to secure Hipwood & Keays as academy acquisitions.

If Hipwood gets a pick #10 bid (1395 pts / 1116 pts with the 20% discount)
And Keays gets a pick #12 bid (1268pts / 1014 pts with the 20% discount)

And let's presume #39 is used to obtain Bastinac...leaving us with the below situation:

17. 1025 pts
41. 412 pts
42. 395 pts

So, needing 2130 pts; we have the above three picks totaling 1832 pts, a net deficit of only -298 pts.
Even if Allison attracts a bid as high as #5 in 2016; the 20% discount will be already greater than those 298 pts

Moving forward in the way our club wants to; is there any point taking a couple of 2nd rounders (or worse) if we're not into Astbury anymore?

A couple speculative picks vs sending a clear message to our young playing group / the AFL as a whole and player managers.....I know which I'd prefer

Se you in Navy blue next season Aishy!

if we only go into draft with picks 17 39 41 and 42 etc. and use them for keays and hipwood does that mean if william and chol get bid on we will not be able to match it or can we go into a points deficit to get them?

 

[dlanod]

if we only go into draft with picks 17 39 41 and 42 etc. and use them for keays and hipwood does that mean if william and chol get bid on we will not be able to match it or can we go into a points deficit to get them?

We can go into points deficits for those guys too, and because they presumably won't attract first round bids the resulting deficit will be taken off the following year's equivalent round pick.

So poor Geelong if anyone gets nominated in the third round. (Kidding, it will probably then come off one of our other picks if there's a deficit. Potentially the first rounder.)