2015 Draft Discussion

[Crawb]

Whilst I know they will be used for academy kids we have 5 draft picks in a row is that a record?

Also with our future picks does that mean next year we will be barracking for whoever is playing the Saints and whoever is playing the roos?

This should add a little bit of interest in some dead rubber games for neutrals in the back half of the season.

 

[mikey127]

Go the non Saints and the non roos

 

[Fatcat08]

The below will be convoluted and full of holes but who cares, lets play the picks guessing game!!

I'll try to give an estimation on where our picks sit after the Swans and GWS academy guys get picked up given its assumed they will be before ours.

So i'll assume that the latest any of Mills, Hopper and Kennedy go are pick 5 which essendon have given all 3 fill a need on their list and the dons have two picks in a row. I've also assumed that picks only move up once the full bid for a single player is matched, not during the middle of the matching.

Pick 5 - Callum Mills - 1878 x .8 = 1502
Sydney use picks - 33, 36 and 37 with pick 37 sliding to pick 70

All picks after 33, 36 and 37 move up corresponding places

Pick 6 - Hopper - 1,751 x 0.8 = 1400
GWS use picks - 10, and pick 33 drops one spot to 34? or stays the same perhaps, bit unsure as they've only got a 5 point deficit.

pick 7 - Kennedy - 1,644 X 0.8 = 1315
GWS use picks - 34, 50, 52, 55 and 60 moves back to 65

W enow have picks 35, 36 37, 38 and 39 as well as 72 now
Then it comes to us. Lets assume worst case the dons then bid on our two guys

Pick 8 - Hipwood - 1240
we use picks - we use 35, 36 and 37 slides down to 51

we now have picks 36 and 37, 49 and 69 as 36 and 37 go to the back of the draft and we all move up

pick 9 - Keays - 1175
We use 36, 37, and 49 slides to pick 65

We end up with picks 64 and 68 still and ones down the back

now as best I can work out thats how it will go down although i've undoubtedly stuffed something up in the above. This is of course assuming picks move up once a bid has been matched and gives us the curious benefit of using 37 and 37 twice.

Weird

 

[SBMVJB]

I hope we have enough points to pick up one more academy player.

 

[alscotoz2]

I hope we have enough points to pick up one more academy player.

I hope we have enough points to reach the finals next season.

 

[Pancho Gonzales]

It's odd that we've been able to approach the trade period with a large degree of certainty about who we're drafting. If the academy continues to produce quality players, I can see us enjoying this unique position for years to come.

 

[braddsey]

The below will be convoluted and full of holes but who cares, lets play the picks guessing game!!

I'll try to give an estimation on where our picks sit after the Swans and GWS academy guys get picked up given its assumed they will be before ours.

So i'll assume that the latest any of Mills, Hopper and Kennedy go are pick 5 which essendon have given all 3 fill a need on their list and the dons have two picks in a row. I've also assumed that picks only move up once the full bid for a single player is matched, not during the middle of the matching.

Pick 5 - Callum Mills - 1878 x .8 = 1502
Sydney use picks - 33, 36 and 37 with pick 37 sliding to pick 70

All picks after 33, 36 and 37 move up corresponding places

Pick 6 - Hopper - 1,751 x 0.8 = 1400
GWS use picks - 10, and pick 33 drops one spot to 34? or stays the same perhaps, bit unsure as they've only got a 5 point deficit.

pick 7 - Kennedy - 1,644 X 0.8 = 1315
GWS use picks - 34, 50, 52, 55 and 60 moves back to 65

We now have picks 35, 36 37, 38 and 39 as well as 72 now
Then it comes to us. Lets assume worst case the dons then bid on our two guys

Pick 8 - Hipwood - 1240
we use picks - we use 35, 36 and 37 slides down to 51

we now have picks 36 and 37, 49 and 69 as 36 and 37 go to the back of the draft and we all move up

pick 9 - Keays - 1175
We use 36, 37, and 49 slides to pick 65

We end up with picks 64 and 68 still and ones down the back

now as best I can work out thats how it will go down although i've undoubtedly stuffed something up in the above. This is of course assuming picks move up once a bid has been matched and gives us the curious benefit of using 37 and 37 twice.

Weird

It's more complex than that according to my calculations...

Pick 5 - Callum Mills - 1878 x .8 = 1502
Sydney use picks - 33, 36 and 37 with pick 37 sliding to pick 70

All picks slide down 1 place because Sydney slotted in at Pick 5. Then later picks slide according to Sydney 33, 26, 37.

Pick 6 - Hopper - 1,751 x 0.8 = 1400
GWS use picks - 11 (was pick 10), and pick 34 slides to pick 38.

Pick 7 - Kennedy - 1,644 X 0.8 = 1315
GWS use picks - 38, 41, 51 and 53 moves back to 69.

We now have picks 36 37, 38, 40 as well as 75 now

Pick 8 - Hipwood - 1240
we use picks - we use 36, 37 and 38 slides down to 55

pick 9 - Keays - 1175
We use 37, 38, and 55 and we have a 20 point deficit. Pick 75 slides up to pick 72... worth 20 points.

It would be interesting to see if we can pay off the 20 point deficit with pick 72 or carry it over.

The whole discussion about how many picks does a club take into the draft comes into effect as well. While points mean something for academy clubs, what happens for the other clubs? if 10 clubs can't carry forward all the picks they have because of list spots, then our pick 78 becomes pick 68. When a club passes, does their pass still remain in the pick position, or are is it removed from the list and all subsequent picks move up? I would think all clubs now take forward all picks - if a non-academy club has father-son selections then surely they must be under the same rules as academy clubs.
There could be variations in this depending on how the calculations work - as in if a pick slides, does it slot into the new position before or after all the picks move? it's probably only going to make a difference of 1 or 2 places, but that is 9 to 18 points each time... 2 academy selection, so could be 36 points - enough to dodge dropping a place in the 1st round next year.

 

[JasRulz63]

Pickering reckons Hipwood falls around pick 8-10 and Keays between 15-18.

 

[Roylion]

Pickering reckons Hipwood falls around pick 8-10 and Keays between 15-18.

I'm hoping he's accurate, leaving us the odd late pick to consider a couple of academy prospects or maybe players such as Whitecross.

We've lost Aish, Redden, Leuenberger, Adcock, McGuane, Staker, Golby and Maguire leaving 32 on our list.
We've picked up Bastinac, Bell, Jansen and Walker and will add Schache, Hipwood and Keays, leaving one more spot, unless we delist someone like Paine.

I'd also wouldn't mind seeing the Lions rookie someone like Sam Grimley for a little more ruck depth.

 

[dlanod]

I kind of hope we go for a third academy player rather than Whitecross, purely on the excitement factor.

 

[jjami15]

I kind of hope we go for a third academy player rather than Whitecross, purely on the excitement factor.

Agree here, or possibly let Paine or Bewick go and bring in WhiteX and also another academy kid with one more sliding to the rookie draft. Chol ND and Williams RD.

 

[winged1]

I kind of hope we go for a third academy player rather than Whitecross, purely on the excitement factor.

I disagree, ideally we dont see Hipwood at all next year at let his body mature in the twos. Schache we need to wait and see maybe get a small look at him, ditto Keayes. Whitecross, given his knee is right and he has some form comes straight in, improves our disposal, becomes that link man we have been lacking. He is also coming from a successful environment.

We have stockpiled a ton of young talent over the last couple of years there is a ton of excitement factor there, maybe too much. We need some senior players to help guide the kids, especially guys who have been playing on the big stage and making finals.

 

[dlanod]

I disagree, ideally we dont see Hipwood at all next year at let his body mature in the twos. Schache we need to wait and see maybe get a small look at him, ditto Keayes. Whitecross, given his knee is right and he has some form comes straight in, improves our disposal, becomes that link man we have been lacking. He is also coming from a successful environment.

We have stockpiled a ton of young talent over the last couple of years there is a ton of excitement factor there, maybe too much. We need some senior players to help guide the kids, especially guys who have been playing on the big stage and making finals.

Didn't say it would necessarily be best for the team, as I can definitely see the reasoning behind Whitecross, but ultimately a mid/half back flanker with decent foot skills isn't as exciting as a 6 foot 6 Sudanese kid.

 

[winged1]

Didn't say it would necessarily be best for the team, as I can definitely see the reasoning behind Whitecross, but ultimately a mid/half back flanker with decent foot skills isn't as exciting as a 6 foot 6 Sudanese kid.

No, but probably far less intimidating in the change rooms

So generally the team would feel far more adequate.

 

[If it bleeds]

I'm hoping he's accurate, leaving us the odd late pick to consider a couple of academy prospects or maybe players such as Whitecross.

We've lost Aish, Redden, Leuenberger, Adcock, McGuane, Staker, Golby and Maguire leaving 32 on our list.
We've picked up Bastinac, Aish, Jansen and Walker and will add Schache, Hipwood and Keays, leaving one more spot, unless we delist someone like Paine.

I'd also wouldn't mind seeing the Lions rookie someone like Sam Grimley for a little more ruck depth.

"We've lost Aish"
We've picked up Bastinac, Aish??"

Is aish trying to knock "the magician" title off Zorko?

Ps: I presume you meant Bell.

 

[Roylion]

"We've lost Aish"
We've picked up Bastinac, Aish??"

Is aish trying to knock "the magician" title off Zorko?

Well Aish didn't know if he was coming or going for quite a while either.

Ps: I presume you meant Bell.

I did. Edited.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Whitecross would be a unrestricted FA signing wouldn't he? Does the Leuy Compo pick get affected by unrestricted FA signings ?

 

[JasRulz63]

Whitecross would be a unrestricted FA signing wouldn't he? Does the Leuy Compo pick get affected by unrestricted FA signings ?

If Hawthorn didn't offer him a contract, he'd be a delisted free agent which don't attract compo. You can't sign restricted/unrestricted free agents anymore so the compo is set.

If they did offer him a contract, we'd have to get him through the draft.

 

[Lions Lions]

I kind of hope we go for a third academy player rather than Whitecross, purely on the excitement factor.

Whitecross going to Brissy

 

[Lego 42]

If Hawthorn didn't offer him a contract, he'd be a delisted free agent which don't attract compo. You can't sign restricted/unrestricted free agents anymore so the compo is set.

If they did offer him a contract, we'd have to get him through the draft.

Can he join the PSD? would make it a heck of a lot easier to grab him there you would think.

 

[winged1]

Whitecross going to Brissy

was that a statement or a question?

 

[winged1]

Can he join the PSD? would make it a heck of a lot easier to grab him there you would think.

yes as long as we have spots

 

[JasRulz63]

Can he join the PSD? would make it a heck of a lot easier to grab him there you would think.

The recent Emma Quayle article says he doesn't have a contract offer with Hawthorn which makes the easiest way to sign him is as a delisted free agent (like Robbo last year). Means he can join us immediately and it doesn't affect our compo pick.

But yes, we could take him in the PSD.

 

[cotter101]

Can't say I'd be on the WhiteX bandwagon myself. Much rather another academy type.

 

[mikey127]

Can't say I'd be on the WhiteX bandwagon myself. Much rather another academy type.

Delist ZOb and get both I reckon.