2015 Draft Discussion

[Skoob]

None of Buckenara, Landsberger, Sanderson, Twomey or Quayle have Sam Skinner in their top 30 - It'd be great to see him join fellow Vic Country lad Schache in our colours; hoping we have a pick if he's available

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...llows-mentor-leigh-brown-20151111-gkw7tr.html

I don't know first thing about him, any good?

 

[Panthera]

I don't know first thing about him, any good?

Best as a key defender...but hasn't got anywhere near it this year after an ACL. If we have pick #42...we'd be looking at him me thinks. A bit to work on, like all players at age 18, but his size, grunt and solid ball usage make him an interesting prospect.

Was projected to go top 10 this year after a really solid U/16's carnival (made AFL Academy squad of 30 etc.) but a few minor injuries and then his ACL this year have robbed him of any continuity.

 

[Crawb]

Hipwood and Keays at 12 & 21 means we'll have a Pick at 40 and another in the mid 50s. Would be great to be able to select another prospect we rate outside of the academies with our pick around 40. Our pick in the 50s can be used to cover a bid for an academy prospect (but it'd cost us our last senior spot).

 

[SizeMatters]

With the likely aquisition of Keays, Hipwood and of course Schache it also allows us to take a risk with our possible 40 pick as well. Hoping we look into the 'gun 16 year old but injuries have hampered draft year' player that we love to take the past few years. Johnson and Skinner for mine... Surely one will last?

 

[carnthemlions]

With the likely aquisition of Keays, Hipwood and of course Schache it also allows us to take a risk with our possible 40 pick as well. Hoping we look into the 'gun 16 year old but injuries have hampered draft year' player that we love to take the past few years. Johnson and Skinner for mine... Surely one will last?

I think we'd be better off going for a safer selection, although that may be a little difficult given the apparent weakness of the draft. Because we got Beams last year, we probably ended up with a few more speculative late picks than we would've otherwise wanted to.

 

[BigCat2]

Ok have a look to see if my calculations are correct. If we take Callum Twomey's phantom draft as what's actually going to happen on the night:

GWS picks for bidding: 10, 34, 52, 54, 57, 62, 63
GWS points for bidding: 1395 + 542 + 378 + 233 + 207 + 170 + 123 + 112 = 2820 points

SYD picks for bidding: 33, 36, 37, 43, 53
SYD points for bidding: 563 + 502 + 483 + 362 + 220 = 2159 points

BL picks for bidding (exclude pick 2): 38, 39, 40, 41, 42
BL picks for bidding: 465 + 446 + 429 + 412 + 395 = 2147 points

Using Twomey's bidding scenarios for the 5 top academy players:

Pick 3 is bid for C Mills, Sydney requires 1787 points to match:
Uses picks 33, 36, 37 and 44
Rest of draft order moves accordingly
Has 123 points left, receives pick 62 in return

Pick 9 is bid for J Hopper, GWS requires 1175 points to match:
Uses pick 11 (1329 points), has 154 points remaining for further bidding (as a pick above 18 is used to match, no pick is received in return, but points are held over)
Rest of draft order moves accordingly (only Carlton & Adelaide's pick 9 and 10)

Pick 11 is bid for M Kennedy, GWS requires 1063 points to match:
Uses 154 points remaining from last bid, pick 34 and 41
Rest of draft order moves accordingly
Has 45 points left, receives pick 70 in return

Pick 12 is bid for E Hipwood, BL requires 1014 points to match:
Uses picks 36, 37, 38
Rest of draft order moves accordingly
Has 436 points left, receives pick 40 in return

Pick 21 is bid for B Keays, BL requires 681 points to match:
Uses picks 37, 38
Rest of draft order moves accordingly
Has 267 points left, receives pick 62 in return

- - - Pause draft at this point - - -

At this point, the players/picks for the above 3 clubs

GWS: J Hopper, M Kennedy, 47, 49, 53, 57, 58, 69 (worth 1237 points)
SYD: C Mills, 48, 60 (worth 448 points)
BL: E Hipwood, B Keays, 39, 62 (worth 705 points)

Points remaining for further bidding:
GWS = 1237 points
SYD = 448 points
BL = 705 points

So far, each club has paid:
GWS 1175 +1063 = 2238 points
SYD = 1787 points
BL 1014 + 681 = 1695 points

Nominal point differential (ie how many points a club had at the start of the draft minus how many points paid)
GWS = 582
SYD = 372
BL = 452

Points 'earned' courtesy of moving up of picks with previous bids:
GWS = 655 (equivalent of pick 29)
SYD = 76 (equivalent of pick 67)
BL = 253 (equivalent of pick 49)

With northern clubs 'creating' extra points out of mid air, more things to get Eddie upset over (assuming he understands the maths involved)!

Happy for folks to point out any calculation errors - after all I used a spreadsheet rather than doing some Java / SQL code.

 

[Old Den]

William wished wandering whistling waiting warblers wrote William when writing William's name - well what William wanted wouldn't always work.

 

[SizeMatters]

I think we'd be better off going for a safer selection, although that may be a little difficult given the apparent weakness of the draft. Because we got Beams last year, we probably ended up with a few more speculative late picks than we would've otherwise wanted to.

Understandable but you have to factor in the following:

- we have traditionally taken highly rated juniors in the U16 or underage years who had been injured during their draft years
- we will essentially have a 'free' pick as IMO we expected Keays + Hipwood to use up all our 3rd rounders
- Schache, Hipwood and Keays will be a very solid draft so we will have room to take a high risk - high reward player
- We will still have a pick in the 50s to take an academy player such as Wagner or William who are likely to get late picks or even undrafted

 

[BigCat2]

I think what my calculations also show are that if we're interested in matching bids for other academy players, we should be able to easily do so without going into deficit.

For example, Western Bulldogs bid pick 34 on Reuben William (Twomey's article say they are interested - though this seems way early), which requires 345 points to match. We match with pick 39, with 105 points left over, and receive pick 64 in return. We now have picks 62 and 64 - still have 259 + 101 = 360 points left for matching another bid.

So even in the worst case scenario above, we can still comfortably pick up whichever of 2 of William/Wagner/Chol that we might be interested in (we currently have primary list of 35 = up to 5 National Draft selections). All courtesy of the fixed 197 points discount after pick 18 and the sliding draft order.

 

[SizeMatters]

wouldn't pick 39 be absorbed through Hipwood or Keays bid though?

Edit: Ah I seen your previous post. Forgot about the fluid draft. Carry on!

 

[blackpowerlappin]

I think what my calculations also show are that if we're interested in matching bids for other academy players, we should be able to easily do so without going into deficit.

For example, Western Bulldogs bid pick 34 on Reuben William (Twomey's article say they are interested - though this seems way early), which requires 345 points to match. We match with pick 39, with with 105 points left over, and receive pick 64 in return. We now have picks 61 (62 moved up) and 64 - still have 135 + 101 = 236 points left for matching another bid.

So even in the worst case scenario above, we can still comfortably pick up whichever of 2 of William/Wagner/Chol that we might be interested in (we currently have primary list of 35 = up to 5 National Draft selections). All courtesy of the fixed 197 points discount after pick 18 and the sliding draft order.

Thanks Big Cat for this. We were definitely the big losers of trade period according to the HUN. Incredible how this points syste is playing out and how the majority of journos didnt understand during the FA trade period.

Looks like Scwabby and co were on to it. What a spew Leuenberger wasn't an end of first rd comp.

 

[BigCat2]

Thanks Big Cat for this. We were definitely the big losers of trade period according to the HUN. Incredible how this points syste is playing out and how the majority of journos didnt understand during the FA trade period.

Looks like Scwabby and co were on to it. What a spew Leuenberger wasn't an end of first rd comp.

Perhaps our recruiting team were onto it right from the start - and worked out that our 5 consecutive picks from 38-42 should be adequate. Maybe they didn't know exactly how many points would be 'generated' until later on - we'll give them benefit of the doubt.

What this also shows, is that under the current system, it's in your interest to have a bunch of low picks. Each bid requiring more than 1 pick to match results in the majority of the draft order all sliding up a spot or more - and if you have a bunch of picks in the 60s and 70s (otherwise worthless picks) they can take advantage of this fact and grow in value with each passing bid.

I initially checked a couple of times to make sure that GWS did end up "earning" 655 points, because that seemed a lot to me. But this appears to be the case.

Just imagine, during the 3 way trade involving Bastinac and Aish.
North Melbourne had pick 67, 79
Collingwood had pick 64, 71, 74, 75
Picks that are unlikely to be used - but had we picked up a few of them, suddenly one man's trash becomes another man's treasure! Imagine Eddie's face after he finds out.

No doubt the VFL will bow to pressure from Collingwood and Hawthorn, and end up further tweaking the system, reducing the benefits from such anomalies.

 

[BigCat2]

Another anomaly is: if there's a bunch of picks owned by Academy clubs that are likely to be used for bidding - trade for picks that just come after this run; avoid picks that come just before the big run of picks. While this seems intuitive given the nature of sliding draft picks, the difference can be quite stark:

Let's look at 3 picks owned by non-Academy clubs before / in the middle / after big run of Academy picks between 33 an 44.
At the start of the draft, Port Adelaide holds pick 32, Fremantle holds pick 35, St Kilda holds pick 45.
After the 5 top Academy bids are met: Port Adelaide holds pick 36, Fremantle holds pick 37, St Kilda holds pick 38!

Port's and Freo's picks actually went backwards (while most people's picks went forwards), and St Kilda's middling pick 45 suddenly became pick 38!

 

[Hollow Knight]

Best Schache article yet. Good Ol' Emma.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...s-late-fathers-footsteps-20151118-gl2ite.html

 

[cotter101]

One of Keays/Hipwood going early twenties wouldn't surprise me. Wherever they get bid on, you can pretty well guarantee we'll be taking them.

Schache, Keays and Hipwood is a handy group to work with. Throw in someone like Willams and it's a nice looking crop with some high ceiling kids.

 

[pulpdriver]

I know Browny has moved on and will be busy enough with his new job in a new state but I do hope come tomorrow evening he gives Schache a call and lets him know if he ever needs some football advice or someone to bounce ideas off just pick up the phone and call him. Of course we have our coaches but I think Browny would have some unique and valuable advice to impart to Josh.

 

[jackess]

Does anybody know when the draft will actually start and will it be streamed on the AFL website?

Looks like it starts at 4 western time which is usually when I'm getting ready to leave work which is awkward.

Not as bad as trying to follow it when I was driving a 220t truck up in the Pilbara.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Does anybody know when the draft will actually start and will it be streamed on the AFL website?

Looks like it starts at 4 western time which is usually when I'm getting ready to leave work which is awkward.

Not as bad as trying to follow it when I was driving a 220t truck up in the Pilbara.

I know it's streamed on the AFL Live App, starts at 1830 AEST. Names probably started to be called at 1600 Western Time

 

[M Malice]

have been reading through the phantom draft board/threads most of them say the knock on ben keays is a lack of pace. 2 recent players who had knocks on them pre draft for a lack of pace were simon black and sam mitchell, lets hope it turns out the same long term.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

have been reading through the phantom draft board/threads most of them say the knock on ben keays is a lack of pace. 2 recent players who had knocks on them pre draft for a lack of pace were simon black and sam mitchell, lets hope it turns out the same long term.

Tom Rockliff.

 

[Lego 42]

have been reading through the phantom draft board/threads most of them say the knock on ben keays is a lack of pace. 2 recent players who had knocks on them pre draft for a lack of pace were simon black and sam mitchell, lets hope it turns out the same long term.

Listing Simon Black as 'recent' is a bit of a stretch..
Anyway watching keays' highlights he seems to have some handy acceleration. I'm more concerned about his footskills adapting to AFL level.

 

[M Malice]

Listing Simon Black as 'recent' is a bit of a stretch..
Anyway watching keays' highlights he seems to have some handy acceleration. I'm more concerned about his footskills adapting to AFL level.

seen very few keays highlights but agree looks llike he gets out of congestion with a 3 or 4 step burst. on your other point, at my age that is recent, depends on your starting point

 

[JasRulz63]

http://www.sen.com.au/news/11-15/bretts-final-2015-afl-mock-draft#EZxsrLM4D81pRgV6.97

Brett Anderson has Hipwood at 12, Keays at 19, Wagner at 39 and William at 45.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

http://www.sen.com.au/news/11-15/bretts-final-2015-afl-mock-draft#EZxsrLM4D81pRgV6.97

Brett Anderson has Hipwood at 12, Keays at 19, Wagner at 39 and William at 45.

Had a quick read, think most of us would be very happy with that as a result.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

If Kurt Mutimer were still around at our last pick I would love us to take him. Fast, left footer, tough and great kick. Not stylish so doesn't get all the plaudits but I've seen him play several times at TAC Cup level and I think he will make a very solid AFL player.