2015 Draft Discussion

[cotter101]

You would hope clubs aren't going to bid on Academy players just force our hand though

Let them? If they bid far over what we deem them as worthy of then we pass. It's simple really. Let them overpay.

Where did you rate Andrews last year?

Well done with Bontempelli, spot on with how you rated him.

I didn't do a phantom draft on Bigfooty last year. Had enough problems sorting through my notes as it was. Got a rough first round done for this year, I'll probably do the first 3 rounds and a rookie draft. I don't really see the point in doing much more. Can't reveal too much.

I had Andrews pegged anywhere from 45 onwards. Didn't get too see much of him but what little I did see of him he impressed me. I did suggest he'd be a better Defender in the seniors though. Lack of exposure meant I and many other's didn't see a great deal of him to select him any higher. With our forward line the way it was at the time I did prefer for him to start up there and see how he went. But I'm totally shocked at just how promising he is looking for a first year KPD.

 

[WA Lion]

Looking like in pure value terms, Keays late 1st round, Hipwood perhaps 2nd round. Hopefully we can manufacture something where by we keep our first pick in the draft, but use our 2nd pick and any other incoming picks (compo/trade) to secure the pair. Realistically, if you can bring in 3 good kids each year you are doing pretty good, a combo of 1st pick/Keays/Hipwood would fit that bill.

You do need to keep 1 eye to the next draft, but at the same time, you have to take what is in front of you. IF Keays and Hipwood look too good to pass up, then cop the hit, suck it up next year and move on. If you have the chance to secure 2 good prospects you do it. You can always have a quiet recruiting year the year after if you pick up some really good players. Bonus points being that academy players are 100000% more likely to stay here as well.

Yep, agree with all of this, Hipwood and Keays are simply a must for mine, even if it wipes out our 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. 1st round on a gun, 2 x academy players is worth it.

Plus there is the unknown quantity in what we get for Aish and whether Dixon does choose to join us. Aish compo may go straight on Dixon, or Dixon isn't interested in joining us and we are suddenly left with an extra early pick (hopefully to be used on an established Key forward

 

[a mayes ing]

Would be really interesting to know what Andrews would be worth now that he has shown this much in the seniors? A pick in the top 15, anyone think?

Plus everyone keeps thinking that dixon will be traded to us with the pick we get from Aish, we can't be sure that the Suns will take that pick. They might want more knowing that we are desperate.

 

[cotter101]

Would be really interesting to know what Andrews would be worth now that he has shown this much in the seniors? A pick in the top 15, anyone think?

Plus everyone keeps thinking that dixon will be traded to us with the pick we get from Aish, we can't be sure that the Suns will take that pick. They might want more knowing that we are desperate.

I think he'd go top 15 if the draft was re-done. An absolute steal at pick 61.

 

[acuguy]

I tried to watch as many of the championship games and he is not in the top 10 players. Totally over the top whoever rates him top 10.

This is an interesting comment. The championship being aged based obviously can provided a fair bit of false gold. You really have to look at what weapons a player has that they can use at the next level. The only athletic animal we have recruited from the draft in the last couple of years was Elliot Yeo. We really lack some elite qualities on our list and have a number of plodders. Speed, running ability and vertical leap are really lacking on our list. Hipwood is one out of the box, he will not bulk up like a traditional player of his size, I would think a Carlisle build will be his go. This is why I am also bullish about Chol and William, they bring an amazing set of athletic skills and are really developed as young Sudanese footballers, both boys have the athleticism to compete at AFL level. Don't overlook how important this is.

 

[theteamtobeat]

Plus everyone keeps thinking that dixon will be traded to us with the pick we get from Aish, we can't be sure that the Suns will take that pick. They might want more knowing that we are desperate.

If we finish last on the ladder, have pick 1 in the PSD and Dixion nominates us, as he's preferred club of choice, then the Suns can accept a 3rd round pick. They have no power at the trade table and the number of talented kids they have, I would not hesitate to screw them over.

 

[jackess]

If we finish last on the ladder, have pick 1 in the PSD and Dixion nominates us, as he's preferred club of choice, then the Suns can accept a 3rd round pick. They have no power at the trade table and the number of talented kids they have, I would not hesitate to screw them over.

The only problem with that is if Dixon does a Mitch Clark and gets a better offer from a team more willing to complete a trade with the Suns we can end up looking as stupid as Freo did. It is definitely a bargaining tool though.

 

[Skoob]

If we finish last on the ladder, have pick 1 in the PSD and Dixion nominates us, as he's preferred club of choice, then the Suns can accept a 3rd round pick. They have no power at the trade table and the number of talented kids they have, I would not hesitate to screw them over.

Interesting way to do business. 'Fair value' offers a much better long term return.

 

[Ironmonger]

Would be really interesting to know what Andrews would be worth now that he has shown this much in the seniors? A pick in the top 15, anyone think?

Plus everyone keeps thinking that dixon will be traded to us with the pick we get from Aish, we can't be sure that the Suns will take that pick. They might want more knowing that we are desperate.

Two good points. North bid pick 34 on him, which from memory was higher than expected. With Grima retiring and Firrito on his last legs he'd probably get a game at the Roos right now. He's going better than most of the players picked in the teens last year, that's for sure.

I wonder about that second point as well. Ideally I think we'd tell Aish's destination club to just figure out what the Suns want for Dixon and give it to them, but with the amount we're offering Dixon (apparently) we might be expected to chuck something else in.

I'd prefer to keep Leuey, but it feels like we need that extra pick.

 

[Nunez]

Two good points. North bid pick 34 on him, which from memory was higher than expected. With Grima retiring and Firrito on his last legs he'd probably get a game at the Roos right now. He's going better than most of the players picked in the teens last year, that's for sure.

I wonder about that second point as well. Ideally I think we'd tell Aish's destination club to just figure out what the Suns want for Dixon and give it to them, but with the amount we're offering Dixon (apparently) we might be expected to chuck something else in.

I'd prefer to keep Leuey, but it feels like we need that extra pick.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a turnover like:

Out: Luenburger, Aish + Draft Picks
In: Dixon, Motop, Schache + Academy players

Motlop is in there as I have a funny feeling he'll end up with us, but he is interchangeable. Point being, IMO we will bring in two big name players and still draft well, I have no doubt.

I also think we'll retain Adcock.

 

[WA Lion]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a turnover like:

Out: Luenburger, Aish + Draft Picks
In: Dixon, Motop, Schache + Academy players

Motlop is in there as I have a funny feeling he'll end up with us, but he is interchangeable. Point being, IMO we will bring in two big name players and still draft well, I have no doubt.

I also think we'll retain Adcock.

The longer Motlop remains unsigned and 'given space' as Geelong put it, the more feasible that rumour becomes I guess.

Only issue being what do we have as currency to get both Dixon and Motlop?

What we get for Leuey and Aish (Personally I hope Leuey stays anyway) may well simply go to Suns for Dixon (if he actually chooses us and if they actually accept that as a deal). Remaining picks on Schache and Academy players. Not much but spare change left for someone like Motlop....

 

[Lace Out]

Interesting way to do business. 'Fair value' offers a much better long term return.

Will be interesting to see what favours West Coast.Port and Carlton do us going forward

 

[Albi_Mangler]

Fair value for Dixon would be our first round pick. If Dixon was our player we would want that and more.

I can see the trade scenario being possible pick 11-13 (Aish to Crows) and an exchange of first picks (2 and 5?).

 

[cheekyLionsFan]

Fair value for Dixon would be our first round pick. If Dixon was our player we would want that and more.

I can see the trade scenario being possible pick 11-13 (Aish to Crows) and an exchange of first picks (2 and 5?).

No way to the above. First round pick + first round pick upgrade

 

[Ironmonger]

Fair value for Dixon would be our first round pick. If Dixon was our player we would want that and more.

I can see the trade scenario being possible pick 11-13 (Aish to Crows) and an exchange of first picks (2 and 5?).

I think we'd walk away before even considering that trade. We won't finish more than one or two spots apart from the Suns in any case, but dropping from pick 2 to 5 is a big deal in any year, but it seems particularly in this year.

Dixon is out of contract and set to leave. The Suns aren't in a position to dig in and demand more than pick 11-13, if we even offer that much.

The same logic applies to Aish, of course. Adelaide will resist offering up their first round pick on its own. At the very least they'll try to get picks back elsewhere.

 

[Albi_Mangler]

I think we'd walk away before even considering that trade. We won't finish more than one or two spots apart from the Suns in any case, but dropping from pick 2 to 5 is a big deal in any year, but it seems particularly in this year.

Dixon is out of contract and set to leave. The Suns aren't in a position to dig in and demand more than pick 11-13, if we even offer that much.

The same logic applies to Aish, of course. Adelaide will resist offering up their first round pick on its own. At the very least they'll try to get picks back elsewhere.

If we have pick 1, I agree we would not trade it, but not so sure if we end up with pick 2-4. Lions need an experienced key forward now.

I just think many of the suggestions that we will essentially get Dixon for nothing are wrong. Suns are in a position of strength, unless Dixon nominates us. Suns can match offers made and if mid first round pick is all it will take other teams would surely offer similar (Pies, Demons or even Port). So far it is just the media saying he will leave. Suns would likely be trying their hardest to keep him, and paying overs may be the only way for us to pry him away.

 

[Ironmonger]

If we have pick 1, I agree we would not trade it, but not so sure if we end up with pick 2-4. Lions need an experienced key forward now.

I just think many of the suggestions that we will essentially get Dixon for nothing are wrong. Suns are in a position of strength, unless Dixon nominates us. Suns can match offers made and if mid first round pick is all it will take other teams would surely offer similar (Pies, Demons or even Port). So far it is just the media saying he will leave. Suns would likely be trying their hardest to keep him, and paying overs may be the only way for us to pry him away.

The bolded bit is the starting assumption. Players always nominate a club. If Dixon nominates another club, we should turn our attention to another player.

Similarly, if we have to pry him away, we should pry away someone else. Or not pry anyone away at all. Paying overs to fix a short term need isn't a viable long term strategy. It's not like Dixon is an instant, risk-free solution.

There are different views, but my view is that Dixon is not worth mucking around with a top 5 pick. We need an experienced key forward now, but we have needs over the next decade and a half that a top 5 pick can help with.

 

[POBT]

I'd wear a slight pick downgrade if it meant getting Dixon onto our list. Pick 1 down to 2 or 3. Not sure I'd go much further than that.

If Gold Coast's first pick is lower (eg pick 5), then they might need to give us something back. Two downgrades (our first rounder to their first rounder, our Aish trade return to their compo pick) might actually work out well for all parties if it gets them a Dixon replacement in Schache + another 1st rounder and we still get a top 5 talent plus a pick to play with in the Academy bidding.

 

[Dom PC]

I'll die of shock if anyone touches our 1st rd pick (unless it was a deal of a lifetime). Dixon isn't worth any more than what we got for Mitch Clark IMO. Pick 12 is about right. Or in other words if Aish leaves what ever we get for him.

 

[Skoob]

Will be interesting to see what favours West Coast.Port and Carlton do us going forward

It's not about "getting favours", but about maintaining good faith to do fair business in the future.

 

[Ironmonger]

It's not about "getting favours", but about maintaining good faith to do fair business in the future.

I get confused when emoticons are used insincerely.

 

[Skoob]

I get confused when emoticons are used insincerely.

 

[Viceregal]

I'll die of shock if anyone touches our 1st rd pick (unless it was a deal of a lifetime). Dixon isn't worth any more than what we got for Mitch Clark IMO. Pick 12 is about right. Or in other words if Aish leaves what ever we get for him.

So Pick 1 (or 2) for Cameron from GWS would probably work for you then?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Schache and Weitering selected to line up on each other in tomorrow's TAC Cup game - Stingrays vs Bushrangers. Hope to be there and for those interested will post some comments and a pic or two after the game. 11 degrees and rain/hail forecast!

 

[POBT]

For a variety of reasons, I think we've all fallen in love with the idea of getting Schache and pick #1 would guarantee that for us. But if being a key forward is what elevates him above the next best players and we have a lesser need for a key forward if we get Dixon, then I don't see why a slight pick downgrade is so awful.

I think we need to keep an open mind on the Dixon trade as what we get for Aish is still a big unknown.