2015 Draft Discussion

[Hollow Knight]

The Academy selections finalised before the main draft night isn't it?

We nominate in advance the players that we are interested in potentially taking as academy selections, but the actual bidding on them by other clubs happens live during the draft.

 

[BrizzyBandit]

Really

 

[BrizzyBandit]

That will be interesting then

 

[Crusha]

True but only a minor deficit that pushes us back maybe 2 spots at worst. One additional 4th round pick from aish trade would mean no deficit

Depends on where we finish in 2016.
Deficit for best "teens" scenario (Keays & Hipwood 18 & 19) would be 483 (or worse).
If at:
Pick 1 (wooden spoon 2016) ... would slide to Pick2
Pick 10 (just miss finals 2016) ... would slide to Pick 20
Pick 18 (premiers 2016) ... would slide to Pick 28

It would require 3rd Rnd Pick 37 (483 pts) to make up that deficit.

If 4th Rnd picks, we would require 55(207pts), 56(194 pts) & 65(90pts) to make up that deficit.

And we could go on with any other combination of picks to make up the deficit (until we went bonkers).

I do believe that my original point (in essence) is still valid .i.e. it's not as cut & dried as a lot seem to be thinking that we will draft in both Keays & Hipwood AND trade in the likes of Dixon, unless the two Academy boys are not highly rated by Recruiters from other clubs (i.e. both well outside top 20).
And if that assessment is in thinking with our recruiters, then others may well be better options.

Just worth keeping in mind.

ps dlanod, please tell me I haven't gone bonkers pouring over this stuff .... good god I'm even working on a "Reckoner" to asses various combinations of pick scenarios ... the men in white coats may well appear soon (and I'm not referring to pre 80's Goal Umpires)

 

[HereIam86]

What pick would we get for leuenberger if he goes in free agency? Also The Herald Sun say we don't get one if we sign Matt Sucking is that right?

 

[Crusha]

Depends on where we finish in 2016.
Deficit for best "teens" scenario (Keays & Hipwood 18 & 19) would be 483 (or worse)...........

WRONG!!!....WRONG!!!....WRONG!!!....

Don't mind me.......just found a "flaw" in my "Ubeaut Draft Bidding System Reckoner".

Nothing to see here ....move along, move along please.........

Grrr @%$!!^@ &%@$#@ @%$!!^@ &%@$#@

(Old b*stards should just keep their trap shut & just focus on not pee-ing in their pants .....)

 

[Crusha]

Stuff it ... I'm gonna get this working if it takes all bloody night.

 

[bato]

What pick would we get for leuenberger if he goes in free agency? Also The Herald Sun say we don't get one if we sign Matt Sucking is that right?

All depends what the other club pays for him. 500K or so would nail us pick two I believe.

 

[Fatcat08]

Fortunately for us, QLD players can fade off the radar a little in the back end of the season as everyone returns to club/TAC after the champs. In all likelihood our best academy prospects will spend a fair bit of time in the NEAFL against men where they'll look worse than they're southern counterparts who'll be playing against people their own age largely.

One thing that's clear though is that draft night is going to hold much more anxiety now for us. Instead of just looking ahead to our next pick, we'll spend the whole first and second rounds following every pick closely and, I imagine, celebrating quietly with each pick that passes without a bid.

There's a draft night drinking game in there somewhere

 

[Viceregal]

So if we go into 2016 with a deficit of say 300 points ... and for some reason came last (just for ease of numbers) ... do we keep pick 1 but it's value is 300 points lower or do we move to whatever draft pick is 'worth' the new points value. If the latter would that mean that if your deficit was less than the difference between pick 1 and 2 that you would effectively no deficit at all?

 

[dlanod]

So it all looks pretty good then?

I haven't taken the time to really explore the system and have been relying on the analysis of others.

Yeah, there's room for plenty of tactics in there but it's generally all in the club's hands as to what decisions to make. There's no real forcing mechanisms I can think of in the new system other than real edge cases.

WRONG!!!....WRONG!!!....WRONG!!!....

Don't mind me.......just found a "flaw" in my "Ubeaut Draft Bidding System Reckoner".

Nothing to see here ....move along, move along please.........

Grrr @%$!!^@ &%@$#@ @%$!!^@ &%@$#@

(Old b*stards should just keep their trap shut & just focus on not pee-ing in their pants .....)

Haha, well it's good to know that I'm not the only one who's done up a spreadsheet or equivalent for this.

So if we go into 2016 with a deficit of say 300 points ... and for some reason came last (just for ease of numbers) ... do we keep pick 1 but it's value is 300 points lower or do we move to whatever draft pick is 'worth' the new points value. If the latter would that mean that if your deficit was less than the difference between pick 1 and 2 that you would effectively no deficit at all?

Correct.

 

[WA Lion]

WRONG!!!....WRONG!!!....WRONG!!!....

Don't mind me.......just found a "flaw" in my "Ubeaut Draft Bidding System Reckoner".

Nothing to see here ....move along, move along please.........

Grrr @%$!!^@ &%@$#@ @%$!!^@ &%@$#@

(Old b*stards should just keep their trap shut & just focus on not pee-ing in their pants .....)

I feel you pain, I spent about 15 minutes reading and re-reading my original post with calculations to make sure I hadn't got my numbers wrong!!

You are spot on in that nothing is cut and dried until draft night, and the rating of the Academy boys is every chance to drop away slightly now the champs have finished, which will make all of our lives easier

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

The points are too hard to work out this far out.

Another factor is Mills, Hooper, Kennedy using multiple bids for matching, this will push our lower picks up further, netting us more points too.

The idea of getting an extra lower picks seems like a good idea, as insurance for our first rounder next year thou.

 

[Balony_pony16]

All depends what the other club pays for him. 500K or so would nail us pick two I believe.

wow... I bloody hope Berger has a good purple patch then

 

[Balony_pony16]

So if we go into 2016 with a deficit of say 300 points ... and for some reason came last (just for ease of numbers) ... do we keep pick 1 but it's value is 300 points lower or do we move to whatever draft pick is 'worth' the new points value. If the latter would that mean that if your deficit was less than the difference between pick 1 and 2 that you would effectively no deficit at all?

or can we pay of our points like the Welfare pay off their debts by $10 per fortnight...ie we pay back 100 pts per year haha

 

[cotter101]

I think Berger would get 500k a year from another club. Essendon, Richmond, Dogs or Swans would cough that up for him.

 

[baaaall!]

I'd prefer to keep berger than to lose him for a second round pick.

 

[Caiphus]

Bergs might get a good wage, but I doubt he will get offered longer than a 2 year contract to stay with us or a 3 year by anyone else because of his injury record which will mean we are unlikely to get band 1 compo from the length of the contract. If he does get a longer offer it will be for a lover salary. It's too much of a gamble otherwise.

 

[BlackGun1]

It also depends where Wagner/William/to a far lesser extent Chol and Dennis sit when its all said and done. Wouldnt we need to be mindful of having at least one or two picks available for any of these guys if they attract a late bid? Rather than throw all our picks at Keays and Hipwood?

 

[Nuggo]

Bergs might get a good wage, but I doubt he will get offered longer than a 2 year contract to stay with us or a 3 year by anyone else because of his injury record which will mean we are unlikely to get band 1 compo from the length of the contract. If he does get a longer offer it will be for a lover salary. It's too much of a gamble otherwise.

As my partner is the spender I also get the lover salary.

 

[Ironmonger]

I think Berger would get 500k a year from another club. Essendon, Richmond, Dogs or Swans would cough that up for him.

I would be amazed if that happened.

In any case, length of contract is also taken into consideration. If one of those clubs is truly stupid enough to offer one of the league's most injury prone players half a million dollars a year, perhaps they're also stupid enough to offer more than a two year contract, but should they have a collective bout of sanity, then they won't be offering anything that would net us band 1 compensation.

This keeps coming up. It gets floated in this forum as wishful thinking and gets gently reinforced by other Brisbane supporters until it seems like a real possibility to some. But there is absolutely no chance we will get a top five FA pick for Leuey.

If he does go, there are going to be some very disappointed people on this board when the compo is announced unless we lower our expectations.

 

[Flea_29]

One thing that we haven't mentioned is the effect that trades will have to the teams bidding for players. For instance, some phantom drafts have Collingwood bidding for either of our boys (possibly to get us to use an early pick). But what if say Collingwood trade for Treloar (or Aish) - trades that would certainly involve their first rd pick - a pick in which they will not be able to use in the bidding process.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I would be amazed if that happened.

In any case, length of contract is also taken into consideration. If one of those clubs is truly stupid enough to offer one of the league's most injury prone players half a million dollars a year, perhaps they're also stupid enough to offer more than a two year contract, but should they have a collective bout of sanity, then they won't be offering anything that would net us band 1 compensation.

This keeps coming up. It gets floated in this forum as wishful thinking and gets gently reinforced by other Brisbane supporters until it seems like a real possibility to some. But there is absolutely no chance we will get a top five FA pick for Leuey.

If he does go, there are going to be some very disappointed people on this board when the compo is announced unless we lower our expectations.

I've always thought an end of first round is a fair outcome. End of second round feels unders. The band 1 stuff is seriously optimistic.

He has the potential to cement end of first round salary worthiness if we see more games like last week's in the run home.

 

[blueiris]

I've always thought an end of first round is a fair outcome. End of second round feels unders. The band 1 stuff is seriously optimistic.

He has the potential to cement end of first round salary worthiness if we see more games like last week's in the run home.

So would Hipwood being bid on at pick 9 take our second and what ever we got for Leuenberger say a pick after our second off the table?

 

[lions2010]

Depends on where we finish in 2016.
Deficit for best "teens" scenario (Keays & Hipwood 18 & 19) would be 483 (or worse).
If at:
Pick 1 (wooden spoon 2016) ... would slide to Pick2
Pick 10 (just miss finals 2016) ... would slide to Pick 20
Pick 18 (premiers 2016) ... would slide to Pick 28

It would require 3rd Rnd Pick 37 (483 pts) to make up that deficit.

If 4th Rnd picks, we would require 55(207pts), 56(194 pts) & 65(90pts) to make up that deficit.

And we could go on with any other combination of picks to make up the deficit (until we went bonkers).

I do believe that my original point (in essence) is still valid .i.e. it's not as cut & dried as a lot seem to be thinking that we will draft in both Keays & Hipwood AND trade in the likes of Dixon, unless the two Academy boys are not highly rated by Recruiters from other clubs (i.e. both well outside top 20).
And if that assessment is in thinking with our recruiters, then others may well be better options.

Just worth keeping in mind.

ps dlanod, please tell me I haven't gone bonkers pouring over this stuff .... good god I'm even working on a "Reckoner" to asses various combinations of pick scenarios ... the men in white coats may well appear soon (and I'm not referring to pre 80's Goal Umpires)

You need to apply the 25% academy discount. If another club nominates Keays at say 17, and we use 19 as an example, with the 25% discount we would get approx 100 points credit, this will essentially mean we could get Hipwood with 3rd rounder because of the credit and his 25% discount.