You need to apply the 25% academy discount. If another club nominates Keays at say 17, and we use 19 as an example, with the 25% discount we would get approx 100 points credit, this will essentially mean we could get Hipwood with 3rd rounder because of the credit and his 25% discount.
Completely incorrect on a variety of counts - not to mention that it's a 20% discount, not 25%.
Crusha is right with his post.
If the bids for Keays and Hipwood are 17 and 19 and your picks remain 1, 20, 38 & 56
It works like this:
Step 1: Resolve bids for
earlier academy players. Let's assume Mills, Hopper & Kennedy go beforehand. As GWS move up the order from the second round for Kennedy, the Keays bid you assumed was 17 becomes 18. And your 20 becomes 21. Slightly beneficial.
To match 18, you need 788 points. Pick 21 is 878 so you'll give that and gain pick 65 back.
Your picks are now 1, 37, 53 and 65.
38 moves up to 37 as a pick from the second round is lost for Sydney's Mills bid. GWS's pick technically isn't, it just moves up to the first for Kennedy, pushing your second pick down. Your third moves up three, as GWS/Sydney's third will also move to the back of the pack, pushing yours up. This is all
live bidding.
If that Hipwood bid was 19, that team's pick is now 20 (so when they make the bid, it's 20). 715 points needed to match, 37 & 53 - 716, so it's a direct match with nothing received back. You only now have picks 65 and ~71 and won't be able to match any other bids. No debt under those circumstances but only just scrape by. Things become different if the bids are 15 and 18 or something like that.
One of them might slip to the 20 range. Both just won't. I strongly suspect Hipwood goes top 10-12 at this stage. That's going to make things tough, especially if you trade in Dixon. If not, the Leuenberger compo may be enough to net you both of these guys but still places you in trouble for other kids.
Dennis might slip to the rookie, we'll see. Ditto blokes like Weller & Buzza. But Wagner, Chol and William likely won't. Chol's game earlier in the year against Vic Country pre-champs was terrific. His last game of the champs wasn't as terrific, but still contained some incredible flashes. To me he's a second round type as a genuine project. William even more so - I rate him top 30, which might even rise. I suspect one club will like him enough to be willing to go inside the top 20-40 for him. I would. You guys have been considering Keays/Hipwood as the big names for academy bidding, but really, I think you've missed one in William. He's the Jack Steele of this year; the guy who rockets into contention based on promise and a good championships. So unless you stock up on picks or go hard into debt (unadvisable; you'll be giving up your first for Allison next year unless you finish first (or maybe second, SPS might go ahead) - he's a clear top 2-3 talent) I think you're going to have to pick which ones of them you're not going to go after. With your KPD depth and assuming you get Schache, maybe that might be Hipwood? He's definitely more of a backman at this stage.