2015 Draft Discussion

[Groo2]

I would be amazed if that happened.

If he does go, there are going to be some very disappointed people on this board when the compo is announced unless we lower our expectations.

I was amazed when Melbourne got band 1 last year.

The most optimistic of us will clutch at straws based on the statement of "net total points for free agents lost" (ie Leuy + Adcock compo), but you are right to temper our expectations..

In reality it may be two band 3's upgraded to a band 2, if we were to lose both players. Unfortunately for Brisbane there wont be much difference between band 2 (end of 1st round) and 3 (2nd round) anyway.

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

 

[JasRulz63]

Sounds like (from Twitter) that Weitering had a great game today, Schache had a quieter one.

 

[cotter101]

Sounds like (from Twitter) that Weitering had a great game today, Schache had a quieter one.

Yeah Schache was quiet. Which I was expecting, Weitering performed consistently as usual and the condition's were not exactly helpful either. Not to mention the ball hardly went up forward for the Bushrangers and when it did, the delivery was appalling.

 

[Panthera]

Yeah Schache was quiet. Which I was expecting, Weitering performed consistently as usual and the condition's were not exactly helpful either. Not to mention the ball hardly went up forward for the Bushrangers and when it did, the delivery was appalling.

Peter Schwab made the trip down to see the probable 1 v 2 go at it

 

[blueiris]

So is Weitering the better player can he play forward? Or is he just a defender? Pickers as he manager puts me off him just a little bit

 

[Toffee Lion]

I still think we'd take Schache after his comments and the fact that we have a little arsenal of defenders growing (Clarke, Gardiner, Bourke, Paparone & even McStay).

 

[cotter101]

So is Weitering the better player can he play forward? Or is he just a defender? Pickers as he manager puts me off him just a little bit

Can play forward, but doesn't look spectacular there. Far better down back, just comes natural to him. Pickers as his manager puts me off him too.3

 

[jackess]

Good to see that Schwabby was at the game

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-07-11/who-won-the-battle-of-the-no1-picks?utm_medium=RSS

 

[snooplions]

Drafting Schache if we have pick one still seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Weitering shone pretty brightly on a wet, dull day. Schache had few opportunities to impress in a well beaten side but was pretty listless I thought and in fact looked buggered at times. Weitering and Collins alternated on Schache and Schache spent time in the ruck and finished on the bench. It rained pretty consistently from about quarter time and so Schache was never going to dominate. Weitering looks a natural backman to me. Reads the play well. Positions himself for the intercept marks and moves nicely for his size. Was very vocal and a real leader in defence. A more developed body than Schache at this stage.

 

[Skippos]

You need to apply the 25% academy discount. If another club nominates Keays at say 17, and we use 19 as an example, with the 25% discount we would get approx 100 points credit, this will essentially mean we could get Hipwood with 3rd rounder because of the credit and his 25% discount.

Completely incorrect on a variety of counts - not to mention that it's a 20% discount, not 25%. Crusha is right with his post.

If the bids for Keays and Hipwood are 17 and 19 and your picks remain 1, 20, 38 & 56

It works like this:

Step 1: Resolve bids for earlier academy players. Let's assume Mills, Hopper & Kennedy go beforehand. As GWS move up the order from the second round for Kennedy, the Keays bid you assumed was 17 becomes 18. And your 20 becomes 21. Slightly beneficial.

To match 18, you need 788 points. Pick 21 is 878 so you'll give that and gain pick 65 back. Your picks are now 1, 37, 53 and 65.

38 moves up to 37 as a pick from the second round is lost for Sydney's Mills bid. GWS's pick technically isn't, it just moves up to the first for Kennedy, pushing your second pick down. Your third moves up three, as GWS/Sydney's third will also move to the back of the pack, pushing yours up. This is all live bidding.

If that Hipwood bid was 19, that team's pick is now 20 (so when they make the bid, it's 20). 715 points needed to match, 37 & 53 - 716, so it's a direct match with nothing received back. You only now have picks 65 and ~71 and won't be able to match any other bids. No debt under those circumstances but only just scrape by. Things become different if the bids are 15 and 18 or something like that.

One of them might slip to the 20 range. Both just won't. I strongly suspect Hipwood goes top 10-12 at this stage. That's going to make things tough, especially if you trade in Dixon. If not, the Leuenberger compo may be enough to net you both of these guys but still places you in trouble for other kids.

Dennis might slip to the rookie, we'll see. Ditto blokes like Weller & Buzza. But Wagner, Chol and William likely won't. Chol's game earlier in the year against Vic Country pre-champs was terrific. His last game of the champs wasn't as terrific, but still contained some incredible flashes. To me he's a second round type as a genuine project. William even more so - I rate him top 30, which might even rise. I suspect one club will like him enough to be willing to go inside the top 20-40 for him. I would. You guys have been considering Keays/Hipwood as the big names for academy bidding, but really, I think you've missed one in William. He's the Jack Steele of this year; the guy who rockets into contention based on promise and a good championships. So unless you stock up on picks or go hard into debt (unadvisable; you'll be giving up your first for Allison next year unless you finish first (or maybe second, SPS might go ahead) - he's a clear top 2-3 talent) I think you're going to have to pick which ones of them you're not going to go after. With your KPD depth and assuming you get Schache, maybe that might be Hipwood? He's definitely more of a backman at this stage.

 

[dlanod]

So unless you stock up on picks or go hard into debt (unadvisable; you'll be giving up your first for Allison next year unless you finish first (or maybe second, SPS might go ahead) - he's a clear top 2-3 talent) I think you're going to have to pick which ones of them you're not going to go after. With your KPF depth and assuming you get Schache, maybe that might be Hipwood? He's definitely more of a backman at this stage.

I agree with all of that. I suspect the "hard into debt" this year will be the difference between using our first rounder and maybe getting our second rounder downgraded for Allison next year, or using our first and second rounders completely, once we factor in paying for that debt pre-trade period. It's hard to predict both where we'll finish and also how the draft pool shapes up, including academy kids, to determine the impact of that.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

I still think we'd take Schache after his comments and the fact that we have a little arsenal of defenders growing (Clarke, Gardiner, Bourke, Paparone & even McStay).

& which one of those is likely to turn into a star CHB?
I am not so sure that Bourke even remains on our list.

I don't have an opinion either way, but I feel as though there is possibly some emotion riding in many comments within this thread. It will be interesting to let the season play out & find out whether it actually becomes our decision. Then the potential Dixon trade, who do our guys rate/best player available, chances of long-term retention, where do Harris & Hipwood play, etc lots of variables still to play out.

Look forward to the appearance of our donut friend later in the season, to shed some light.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

With the academy process

I'm comfortable taking a slight hit and going into deficit for the following year if it helps secure really top rated talent (Hipwood/Keayes gain high bids) as a slight downgrade is outweighed by gaining top end talent.

Where the Dilemma for us will be, if someone like Chol/William/Wagner are rated and bid on at 40, needing us to go into deficit for lower end talent.

Especially if we have another poor year like this, it could potentially cost us a pick 3 to pick 5 downgrade. I'd consider that a negative outcome to gain someone rated a 40 pick.

 

[xplo]

& which one of those is likely to turn into a star CHB?
I am not so sure that Bourke even remains on our list.

I don't have an opinion either way, but I feel as though there is possibly some emotion riding in many comments within this thread. It will be interesting to let the season play out & find out whether it actually becomes our decision. Then the potential Dixon trade, who do our guys rate/best player available, chances of long-term retention, where do Harris & Hipwood play, etc lots of variables still to play out.

Look forward to the appearance of our donut friend later in the season, to shed some light.

Personally I think the guy most likely to become an athletic big CHB isn't even on that list. Close might end up there and could be very good there. Big, covers ground , disciplined, athletic.

If we got a Schache type I think Close gets tried there sooner or later.

 

[Viceregal]

I normally try and avoid the whole draft discussion thing and pretty much follow up on them *after* we have drafted them (now that we know who they are) except maybe for who is going for our first pick etc ... but the tech side of my brain has been seduced by the mechanics of the new system and I am still in the discussions ... and just now I spent five (fruitless) minutes trying to find a precis of Allison to give myself a vague mental picture of the mooted top academy pick for *next* year!!! Am I doomed? ... should I just ... stop ... reading ... Big ... Footy (cue withdrawal symptoms here) ... or will I just get over it as the novelty wears off?

In the meantime - does anyone have a link to a precis of Allison to put me out of my temporary misery?

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I normally try and avoid the whole draft discussion thing and pretty much follow up on them *after* we have drafted them (now that we know who they are) except maybe for who is going for our first pick etc ... but the tech side of my brain has been seduced by the mechanics of the new system and I am still in the discussions ... and just now I spent five (fruitless) minutes trying to find a precis of Allison to give myself a vague mental picture of the mooted top academy pick for *next* year!!! Am I doomed? ... should I just ... stop ... reading ... Big ... Footy (cue withdrawal symptoms here) ... or will I just get over it as the novelty wears off?

In the meantime - does anyone have a link to a precis of Allison to put me out of my temporary misery?

Crusha completed a video on Allison
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2015-2016-draft-videos.1100768/

Not a lot on underagers, as the attention seems to go to the potential draftees. If you head over to the drafting and trading forum, and you can pick up information in the phantom draft board. Skippos/KM are more than helpful

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Not sure about the correct pronunciation of Schache's name but yesterday his teammates were calling him "Shack".

 

[WA Lion]

With the academy process

I'm comfortable taking a slight hit and going into deficit for the following year if it helps secure really top rated talent (Hipwood/Keayes gain high bids) as a slight downgrade is outweighed by gaining top end talent.

Where the Dilemma for us will be, if someone like Chol/William/Wagner are rated and bid on at 40, needing us to go into deficit for lower end talent.

Especially if we have another poor year like this, it could potentially cost us a pick 3 to pick 5 downgrade. I'd consider that a negative outcome to gain someone rated a 40 pick.

Yep spot on - Keays and Hipwood are the only 2 draft musts for me.

All of our remaining academy kids should be drafted only if we don't go in to deficit to get them. William looked good and would love to get him, but not at the expense of Allison next year. All of the remaining names (Chol, Dennis, Wagner, Buzza etc )would be more project/rookie types players and you simply can't afford to go in to deficit for that sort of player. Only gun players should be worth going in to deficit for. Would be comfortable passing them over in the draft.

Ultimately this is a good problem really, as it shows how well our academy is functioning. It does mean however that Lions fans will have to accept we can't have them all, and have to prioritise them.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Not sure about the correct pronunciation of Schache's name but yesterday his teammates were calling him "Shack".

Shack key or shackey

 

[Bucking Beads]

Harris Andrews will be a star CHB

 

[AFLQLD]

It will be interesting if the AFL do decide to allow other clubs to eventually have their own academies under the same drafting rules as us. All of a sudden they might find themselves in our situation. They might get disappointed if one of their potential academy boys goes on to have a great career elsewhere. No doubt fat Eddy will push for a rule change once something like that hurts his club.

Still, we have the good fortune to have potentially more draft prospects in our academy than we need. That speaks volumes towards its benefit to the northern clubs and the comp as a whole. Go back a few years and things were not as rosy in terms of talent coming out of Queensland.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Yep spot on - Keays and Hipwood are the only 2 draft musts for me.

All of our remaining academy kids should be drafted only if we don't go in to deficit to get them. William looked good and would love to get him, but not at the expense of Allison next year. All of the remaining names (Chol, Dennis, Wagner, Buzza etc )would be more project/rookie types players and you simply can't afford to go in to deficit for that sort of player. Only gun players should be worth going in to deficit for. Would be comfortable passing them over in the draft.

Ultimately this is a good problem really, as it shows how well our academy is functioning. It does mean however that Lions fans will have to accept we can't have them all, and have to prioritise them.

On the plus side if any academy kids fall through the net to a Vic team & turn into a gun we can look at luring them back home in a couple of years. Will be nice for the shoe to be on the other foot. Especially if it's Port or Carlton.

 

[cotter101]

On the plus side if any academy kids fall through the net to a Vic team & turn into a gun we can look at luring them back home in a couple of years. Will be nice for the shoe to be on the other foot. Especially if it's Port or Carlton.

Even better if it's Collingwood.

 

[Lace Out]

On the plus side if any academy kids fall through the net to a Vic team & turn into a gun we can look at luring them back home in a couple of years. Will be nice for the shoe to be on the other foot. Especially if it's Port or Carlton.

As long as we deal fairly I wouldn't want us to gain any sort of advantage