2015 Draft Discussion

[cotter101]

As long as we deal fairly I wouldn't want us to gain any sort of advantage

Yeah. Because Eddie and co would go mental and we all know what would happen next.

 

[blueiris]

TAC Cup Future Stars have done their mock draft and it looked like this
1.Jacob Weitering-Brisbane
2.Josh Schache-Gold Coast
3.Callum Mills Sydney
4.Aaron Francis-Carlton
5.Jacob Hopper-GWS
6.Darcy Parish-Melbourne
7.Darcy Tucker-Essendon
8.Charlie Curnow-Stkilda
9.Harley Balic-Port Adelaide
10.Matthew Kennedy-GWS
11.Rhys Mathieson-Geelong
12Kieran Collins-North Melbourne
13.Benjamin Keays-Brisbane
14.Sam Weideman-Adelaide
15.Ryan Burton-Collingwood
16Harry McKay-Western Bulldogs
17.Riley Bonner-Richmond
18.Eric Hipwood-Brisbane
19.Josh Dunkley-Hawthorn
20.Tom Cole-West Coast

Kevin Sheehan said that Wietering can play both ends of the ground but is best suited to CHB which is what he also said about Hipwood seems strange Brisbane would take 2 defensive players in Terry's draft.

 

[jackess]

3 picks in the top 18. Eddie will love that.

 

[askdotcom]

TAC Cup Future Stars have done their mock draft and it looked like this
1.Jacob Weitering-Brisbane
2.Josh Schache-Gold Coast
3.Callum Mills Sydney
4.Aaron Francis-Carlton
5.Jacob Hopper-GWS
6.Darcy Parish-Melbourne
7.Darcy Tucker-Essendon
8.Charlie Curnow-Stkilda
9.Harley Balic-Port Adelaide
10.Matthew Kennedy-GWS
11.Rhys Mathieson-Geelong
12Kieran Collins-North Melbourne
13.Benjamin Keays-Brisbane
14.Sam Weideman-Adelaide
15.Ryan Burton-Collingwood
16Harry McKay-Western Bulldogs
17.Riley Bonner-Richmond
18.Eric Hipwood-Brisbane
19.Josh Dunkley-Hawthorn
20.Tom Cole-West Coast

Kevin Sheehan said that Wietering can play both ends of the ground but is best suited to CHB which is what he also said about Hipwood seems strange Brisbane would take 2 defensive players in Terry's draft.

 

[cotter101]

I really want Harley Balic at the club. He'll be elite, I'm sure of it. Would not surprise me if he went as high as pick 4.

 

[Flea_29]

There is a real possibility that we might have to choose between Keays and Hipwood. If there are bids too high (ie 5-15) then we may need to let one go. The last thing we want is to impact our ability to draft quality players (this years draft and next years). Like I stated before, someone like Treloer going to Collingwood (for 1st round pick and player) will suit us perfectly as it would deny the Pies the ability to place a first round pick (bid) - one that GWS would probably need (for their academy players) and would not use as a bid.

 

[jjami15]

There is a real possibility that we might have to choose between Keays and Hipwood. If there are bids too high (ie 5-15) then we may need to let one go. The last thing we want is to impact our ability to draft quality players (this years draft and next years). Like I stated before, someone like Treloer going to Collingwood (for 1st round pick and player) will suit us perfectly as it would deny the Pies the ability to place a first round pick (bid) - one that GWS would probably need (for their academy players) and would not use as a bid.

If they're both that good I don't think the club will let them go. Quality is quality.

 

[Panthera]

There is a real possibility that we might have to choose between Keays and Hipwood. If there are bids too high (ie 5-15) then we may need to let one go. The last thing we want is to impact our ability to draft quality players (this years draft and next years). Like I stated before, someone like Treloer going to Collingwood (for 1st round pick and player) will suit us perfectly as it would deny the Pies the ability to place a first round pick (bid) - one that GWS would probably need (for their academy players) and would not use as a bid.

Keays 100% a Lions next year - nothing surer

 

[Lace Out]

I really want Harley Balic at the club. He'll be elite, I'm sure of it. Would not surprise me if he went as high as pick 4.

I'm not against it but a five letter surname ending in c gives me bad vibes

 

[Judge]

Keays 100% a Lions next year - nothing surer

From what I've heard, although mostly pre-championships, the Lions rated Keays as a second rounder.

I'd expect Keays to be with us next year, but the odds would still be well under 100%.

 

[Sherrinator]

I'm not against it but a five letter surname ending in c gives me bad vibes

I don't trust eastern europeans either.

#coldwarmk2

 

[theteamtobeat]

From what I've heard, although mostly pre-championships, the Lions rated Keays as a second rounder.

I'd expect Keays to be with us next year, but the odds would still be well under 100%.

The kid is a mad Lions supporter, loves the club and most importantly wants to be at the club. The bonus is that he is rated as a first round prospect.

I don't see why we would let him go, inorder to take a chance on another kid who we might rated highly, that doesn't really want to come to our club as their 1st choice. Keay's is 100% going to be a Lion
..

 

[dlanod]

I don't trust eastern europeans either.

#coldwarmk2

#cold warm k2?

The kid is a mad Lions supporter, loves the club and most importantly wants to be at the club. The bonus is that he is rated as a first round prospect.

I don't see why we would let him go, inorder to take a chance on another kid who we might rated highly, that doesn't really want to come to our club as their 1st choice. Keay's is 100% going to be a Lion
..

The obvious catch is whether the Lions rate him as a first round prospect. Every man and his dog in BF and the media may rate him pick 1, but ultimately all that matters is where the Lions rate him.

 

[POBT]

Yep, only two clubs matter with the Academy boys - the team prepared to bid the highest pick and us. 16 clubs will be irrelevant.

It could end up that 17 clubs (including us) don't rate a player particularly highly but 1 club does. The popular view is irrelevant and we'd be mad to match a pick just because it is an Academy lad.

That's not to say we won't price in the lack of go-home factor, the easier induction and settling in, the familiarity, the loyalty etc.

We need to be prepared for the eventuality that not only will we overlook an Academy player but that player will go on to play good footy at another club. That will happen and potentially it will happen this year. The rules are designed to avoid us getting them all.

 

[Forward We Go]

Yep, only two clubs matter with the Academy boys - the team prepared to bid the highest pick and us. 16 clubs will be irrelevant.

It could end up that 17 clubs (including us) don't rate a player particularly highly but 1 club does. The popular view is irrelevant and we'd be mad to match a pick just because it is an Academy lad.

That's not to say we won't price in the lack of go-home factor, the easier induction and settling in, the familiarity, the loyalty etc.

We need to be prepared for the eventuality that not only will we overlook an Academy player but that player will go on to play good footy at another club. That will happen and potentially it will happen this year. The rules are designed to avoid us getting them all.

Strongly disagree with the above statement. The Academy's are set up for many reasons but in my mind, they are primarily there for 2 main reasons:
1. To help strengthen AFL football in non-afl football states where other codes are dominating.
2. To identify talent from all over those states and nurture that talent into its full potential wherever possible.

If academy clubs invest $$$ to do the above, and then have those players drafted to another club (Probably because of the Swans acquiring Heeney last year and Eddie having a big baby cry) then clubs will erase the academy concept in a heart beat. They rightfully deserve a return for their investment and if that return is taken away, why stay in the business???
The rules have changed this year for whatever reasons. If this upcoming draft stops academy clubs from keeping the young kids they have spent time & $$$ to develop, they will either change the rules for following drafts or drop the academy concept.

 

[dlanod]

Strongly disagree with the above statement. The Academy's are set up for many reasons but in my mind, they are primarily there for 2 main reasons:
1. To help strengthen AFL football in non-afl football states where other codes are dominating.
2. To identify talent from all over those states and nurture that talent into its full potential wherever possible.

If academy clubs invest $$$ to do the above, and then have those players drafted to another club (Probably because of the Swans acquiring Heeney last year and Eddie having a big baby cry) then clubs will erase the academy concept in a heart beat. They rightfully deserve a return for their investment and if that return is taken away, why stay in the business???
The rules have changed this year for whatever reasons. If this upcoming draft stops academy clubs from keeping the young kids they have spent time & $$$ to develop, they will either change the rules for following drafts or drop the academy concept.

If an academy boy goes to St Kilda because they rate him at pick 5 whereas we rate him at pick 25, is that really a loss to us? We can pick up more (non-Qld) talent that we do rate because that academy boy has been taken above where we rate him. We can and will pick up players who we view as a fair return on investment, that investment including the draft picks required to take them.

 

[POBT]

Strongly disagree with the above statement. The Academy's are set up for many reasons but in my mind, they are primarily there for 2 main reasons:
1. To help strengthen AFL football in non-afl football states where other codes are dominating.
2. To identify talent from all over those states and nurture that talent into its full potential wherever possible.

If academy clubs invest $$$ to do the above, and then have those players drafted to another club (Probably because of the Swans acquiring Heeney last year and Eddie having a big baby cry) then clubs will erase the academy concept in a heart beat. They rightfully deserve a return for their investment and if that return is taken away, why stay in the business???
The rules have changed this year for whatever reasons. If this upcoming draft stops academy clubs from keeping the young kids they have spent time & $$$ to develop, they will either change the rules for following drafts or drop the academy concept.

I'm not sure what point I made that you are disagreeing with. I wasn't really making a point on whether the system is right or wrong.

 

[Ironmonger]

Strongly disagree with the above statement. The Academy's are set up for many reasons but in my mind, they are primarily there for 2 main reasons:
1. To help strengthen AFL football in non-afl football states where other codes are dominating.
2. To identify talent from all over those states and nurture that talent into its full potential wherever possible.

If academy clubs invest $$$ to do the above, and then have those players drafted to another club (Probably because of the Swans acquiring Heeney last year and Eddie having a big baby cry) then clubs will erase the academy concept in a heart beat. They rightfully deserve a return for their investment and if that return is taken away, why stay in the business???
The rules have changed this year for whatever reasons. If this upcoming draft stops academy clubs from keeping the young kids they have spent time & $$$ to develop, they will either change the rules for following drafts or drop the academy concept.

As POBT says, I don't think what you're saying contradicts anything he says.

But you're right that the way the system has now been structured doesn't make a lot of sense. If we wipe out our picks bidding on Keays and Hipwood, then if someone like Wagner or Dennis attracts even a third round bid then we'd have to downgrade our first pick in 2016 to match it. It seems mad to me that we don't get the opportunity to take such a small group of players in the one draft.

 

[Forward We Go]

As POBT says, I don't think what you're saying contradicts anything he says.

But you're right that the way the system has now been structured doesn't make a lot of sense. If we wipe out our picks bidding on Keays and Hipwood, then if someone like Wagner or Dennis attracts even a third round bid then we'd have to downgrade our first pick in 2016 to match it. It seems mad to me that we don't get the opportunity to take such a small group of players in the one draft.

I guess what I'm saying is that if what the AFL has done to change the academy rules don't work, either the rules will change again or the academies will not be supported by the respective clubs and will die.

 

[Bucking Beads]

If we continue paying like we have the last few weeks we could easily have another 3 or 4 wins this season which would change our draft standing pretty quickly. It is really hard knowing if the wins are worth it when we are so desperate for a Key forward.

 

[jjami15]

If we continue paying like we have the last few weeks we could easily have another 3 or 4 wins this season which would change our draft standing pretty quickly. It is really hard knowing if the wins are worth it when we are so desperate for a Key forward.

Schache is not the 'out and out' leader for pick 1. Weitering, even though he's a defender, is IMO ahead of Schache but only just. It will come down to team needs and wants if they have pick 1. If Carlton finish last from all reports SOS really rates Weitering and could very strongly go that way. If GC keep Dixon I reckon they also would lean that way, however, lose him and they would most probably go for Schache. For us Schache would be no1 our boards.

 

[POBT]

I believe the Academies are good for footy, full stop. Therefore, investment in the Academies is good for footy. If something acts as a disincentive to that investment, then logically it is bad for footy. I do think that there is a risk that a club will scale back its Academy investment if it perceives that the draft returns are insufficient.

I think the challenge is measuring ROI for the Academy which is unlikely to be able to be done with any meaning for several years yet. Until you know what your ROI is, you can't really measure the impact of something like the bidding system. Unfortunately, due to the constant draft rule changes and the relatively short history of the Academy system, there's a real lack of consistent baseline data to rely on.

The question is why should the Brisbane Lions spend its limited resources on the Academy. Clearly, the primary reason for us to spend money is to draft better players who are less likely to leave. So, I see it that we get three benefits - the lack of go-home factor, the discount applied to taking Academy players in the draft and whatever development we can put into these kids prior to them joining our list. The change to the bidding system really only limits one of those factors. We still have the opportunity to focus our drafting on local kids and we still get to spend several years of pre-draft development out of the kids we end up selecting. The benefit is less than under the old bidding system but, even if the discount was completely removed (not beyond the realms of possibility for this administration), then we do still get something out of drafting locals who have been through a development program. The question is whether that is enough to justify the expenditure.

There is also the broader benefit of improving local footy standards. We keep talented kids in footy throughout their teenage years. Hopefully that means more of them go on to play NEAFL which in turn lifts that level of footy. There is a knock on effect too - if the talented kids stick with footy, maybe their mates will stick with it too. This all helps us, as a Queensland club, to lift standards.

A question is whether we, as a club, should be the party investing in junior development. However, as our entire operation is subsidised by the AFL, if we decided to scale back our investment in the Academy, they may decide to decrease their financial support by the same amount.

 

[chopperduck]

Being able to coach and watch these boys from what, u14's or something the academy starts now i think, is worth the price of the academy alone. It promotes the game and the club in our state, and will only help develop better quality QLD players, players who are more likely to stay here if we take them. Advantage of taking a Keays over another player of the same ability, is that the kid already knows the club inside and out. How many other clubs basically get to coach and work with their draftees for 2 years before drafting them. He walks into the club already with a very good understanding. That is a huge benefit that i think has been overlooked in the entire academy discussion.

 

[bato]

I don't trust eastern europeans either.

#coldwarmk2

Might turn out to be AFL's Novak Djokovic.

 

[Sherrinator]

Being able to coach and watch these boys from what, u14's or something the academy starts now i think, is worth the price of the academy alone. It promotes the game and the club in our state, and will only help develop better quality QLD players, players who are more likely to stay here if we take them. Advantage of taking a Keays over another player of the same ability, is that the kid already knows the club inside and out. How many other clubs basically get to coach and work with their draftees for 2 years before drafting them. He walks into the club already with a very good understanding. That is a huge benefit that i think has been overlooked in the entire academy discussion.

A few Vic clubs would with their future FS selections.

Plenty of grooming going on.