2015 Draft Discussion

[Ironmonger]

Obviously list management becomes a whole lot more difficult. It may be that we have to take an open mind into trading. If I use Aish as an example, assuming this is a simple trade (ie no other parties, no on-trading of picks), we'd love to get a first round pick (say, Adelaide's pick 12). But, if I understand the bidding process, that pick doesn't help us to secure Keays and Hipwood if it is before anyone bids for Keays and Hipwood. In that scenario, we may actually be better off getting 2 second rounders rather than 1 mid-first rounder to help offset the bidding cost for Academy players.

Should Leuey leave, his FA compo will also be important.

Band 3 compo (which I think is unlikely) would be immediately after our second round pick, which would mean we could use pick 20 or 912 points assuming we stay in 17th to match any bid of pick 15 or later and still have the next pick in the draft.

Band 4 compo would translate to pick 37 or 483 points. That won't help us match any bids in the first round, because we'll be obliged to use our next highest pick, but it would certainly help us with Hipwood or another academy player if they attract a second round bid.

Of course, FA compo picks awarded to other clubs will devalue ours slightly.

 

[POBT]

Picks 29 & 30 give us 20 more points than pick 12, and both can be used on players bid on after pick 12. Getting 24 and 30 (hypothetically Adelaide getting a second second rounder and sending it plus 30, their normal second rounder in this scenario, to us) instead would see us at least 10% better off and potentially more.

I'd be surprised if any club would give up pick 12 in a trade for 29+30. That says to me that the "pricing" model doesn't really reflect reality. What it will do is open things up for clubs wanting to buy into the first round.

 

[POBT]

Should Leuey leave, his FA compo will also be important.

Band 3 compo (which I think is unlikely) would be immediately after our second round pick, which would mean we could use pick 20 or 912 points assuming we stay in 17th to match any bid of pick 15 or later and still have the next pick in the draft.

Band 4 compo would translate to pick 37 or 483 points. That won't help us match any bids in the first round, because we'll be obliged to use our next highest pick, but it would certainly help us with Hipwood or another academy player if they attract a second round bid.

Of course, FA compo picks awarded to other clubs will devalue ours slightly.

Yeah, our second round pick plus a FA compo pick might do the job. Part of that though is assuming that the Keays/Hipwood bids occur before our second rounder. If we end up with picks 20 and 21, and Keays+Hipwood attract bids of 22 and 23, then it will be harder for us to make up the points. So we'd be left with 5 new draftees in the top 25 (great!) but a massive debt which will hinder us in 2016 (not so great).

This does feel a little exposed to the possibility of collusion.

 

[dlanod]

I'd be surprised if any club would give up pick 12 in a trade for 29+30. That says to me that the "pricing" model doesn't really reflect reality. What it will do is open things up for clubs wanting to buy into the first round.

I concur, which I think opens up a nice arbitrage opportunity for academy/father-son acquiring teams who have a vested interest in the points angle. Going the alternate way, if we get pick 12 for Aish and put it up for a couple of high second rounders (say, 20 and 21) it wouldn't surprise me to get some interest.

Looking at the trades over the last five years involving only draft picks, the three most recent are actually surprisingly similar to the draft points value. Port made out like bandits for getting involved with our Polec trade, and then earlier than that other teams made out like bandits (both in points and in basic observation) because teams were trading away picks they weren't going to use due to limited list spots in exchange for moving up three or six spots at the draft. However in all of the close cases picks were moved at most five spots (14 to 10, 11 to 6 and 24 to 19). There does seem to be a discrepancy towards the lower end of draft values where putting together 37, 38, 39 and 40 gets you to pick 6 in value. Maybe the curve doesn't drop fast enough to get realistic results for large differences in picks.

Yeah, our second round pick plus a FA compo pick might do the job. Part of that though is assuming that the Keays/Hipwood bids occur before our second rounder. If we end up with picks 20 and 21, and Keays+Hipwood attract bids of 22 and 23, then it will be harder for us to make up the points. So we'd be left with 5 new draftees in the top 25 (great!) but a massive debt which will hinder us in 2016 (not so great).

This does feel a little exposed to the possibility of collusion.

Please <team right before our pick>, put a bid in on our player! A bit messed up. Or we could just take them with the second rounder and make it academic.

 

[royboys4eva]

Ben Keays absolutely tearing it up against NSW here. Looks a class above the rest. Can see him playing plenty of League footy next season.

 

[jackess]

Would have been good to see them play the Div. 1 teams.

 

[Mayestro]

Halfway through the second quarter Keays has 15 possies and two goals.
Hipwood down back a bit quieter.
R Williams started well too.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Nice pack mark by Buzza late on the 2nd quarter too.

 

[LIONS08]

Halfway through the second quarter Keays has 15 possies and two goals.
Hipwood down back a bit quieter.
R Williams started well too.

Keays is looking the good isn't he.
I was also quiet impressed with Hipwood. Moves really well for 200cm! Have been impressed with him also

 

[Mayestro]

Strike that on Hipwood- has taken a few good marks and up to 11 possessions playing down back.
Buzza- ok. Has had 4 pro fights for 4 wins apparently.
Wagnor with 9 to half time.

 

[baaaall!]

Score?

 

[Mayestro]

NSW 17, Queensland 35. Their mids are winning a lot of clearances but we're better on the outside.

 

[jackess]

NSW 17, Queensland 35. Their mids are winning a lot of clearances but we're better on the outside.

Rugby score?

 

[Mayestro]

It's been wet this morning. Plus they weren't showing the goals v points when I was writing it

 

[Hollow Knight]

51-18 now.

Buzza puts one through and breaks a run of behinds for QLD.

 

[pulpdriver]

Where has Hipwood been playing today?

edit: never mind saw Nicky G 's post.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Bloody hell Hipwood. Go easy

 

[Mayestro]

Commentator saying Hipwood dominating in defence. Can't disagree.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Living in Vic never seen much of the academy boys but like keays he classy and works hard. Wagner looks solid and William of half back has serious toe.

 

[Hollow Knight]

57-19 at 3 quarter time. Keays, Allison and Hipwood influential again that quarter.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Budarik kicks the wrong way.

Suns are such a rabble.

 

[captainrich]

57-19 at 3 quarter time. Keays, Allison and Hipwood influential again that quarter.

how are wagner and williams going?

 

[Hollow Knight]

how are wagner and williams going?

Both busy.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

First time I've seen our academy kids play. Keays really deserves all the plaudits, doesn't he. Seriously, seriously good player. Just as importantly seems a really good leader - can't wait to get him.

Hipwood very impressive too. A bit like Andrews but maybe more agile. And Buzza definitely has plenty to work with. Would love us to get all three. Allison very exciting too for next year but there's definitely enough to be excited about this year.

 

[royboys4eva]

Agree Hipwood has a lot of similarities to Harris Andrews. Wagner has been quite impressive. Reads the play well. The Sudanese boys have plenty of potential. Good athletes.