2015 Draft Discussion

[Hollow Knight]

Bunch of negative nellies around these parts.

 

[Fitzroy bears]

Bunch of negative nellies around these parts.

Agreed. Starting to get hard to read

 

[jackess]

Bunch of negative nellies around these parts.

At least we're getting ~ pick 21 for Leuey. That's pretty good.

 

[Hirsty23]

And it's interesting that Schache has been generally less impressive at the TAC Cup level when the delivery to him has been not quite so good.

As is the case with pretty much every key forward who has ever played the game?

 

[Viceregal]

Our second round and later pick will be pushed right back as well thanks to free agency which will hurt us for academy bidding.

Wouldn't it also push back the bid it is made at and so kind of even out?

 

[Flea_29]

Friends that I've spoken (that work for Champion Data) keep telling me that Francis is the best all round player in the draft. I know that this doesn't help our Key Forward position, but its not a bad fallback option. Francis is the type of player that will make an impact next year, whereas, Schache might take a year or two.
I was also told, that Schache is having second thoughts of moving to Brisbane (with all the shit happening at the moment).

 

[pulpdriver]

Friends that I've spoken (that work for Champion Data) keep telling me that Francis is the best all round player in the draft. I know that this doesn't help our Key Forward position, but its not a bad fallback option. Francis is the type of player that will make an impact next year, whereas, Schache might take a year or two.
I was also told, that Schache is having second thoughts of moving to Brisbane (with all the shit happening at the moment).

I'm not sure anything currently happening to Brisbane would have changed Schache's mindset, would've thought he'd well and truly adjusted to the idea of moving to Brisbane at the point.

 

[BangyBangy]

Friends that I've spoken (that work for Champion Data) keep telling me that Francis is the best all round player in the draft. I know that this doesn't help our Key Forward position, but its not a bad fallback option. Francis is the type of player that will make an impact next year, whereas, Schache might take a year or two.
I was also told, that Schache is having second thoughts of moving to Brisbane (with all the shit happening at the moment).

You mean our winning streak?

 

[Lace Out]

Just listening to Evans you get the feeling pick 2 won't get to Carlton.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Realistically, would any family be enthused at the prospect of their young son moving interstate to a club with our reported level of disharmony?

 

[BangyBangy]

Just listening to Evans you get the feeling pick 2 won't get to Carlton.

I was just thinking the same thing. Specifically mentioned what someone has achieved in their career to date is taken into consideration, as well as other trends in player payments throughout the league.

 

[Schache It Off]

End of first round for Carltank.

We get pick 2, sorry Blooze....Oh and Luey will give us pick 3.

 

[Bucking Beads]

I was just thinking the same thing. Specifically mentioned what someone has achieved in their career to date is taken into consideration, as well as other trends in player payments throughout the league.

Yes but the flies in the face of Frawley getting the Demons pick 3 last year.

 

[Lace Out]

The problem for Carlton is they can't unload Kruezer with the certainty of getting pick 2.Massive dice roll.

 

[BangyBangy]

I was just thinking the same thing. Specifically mentioned what someone has achieved in their career to date is taken into consideration, as well as other trends in player payments throughout the league.

He also mentioned he hasn't seen the formula though..... Why do I get the impression there is no formula.

 

[BangyBangy]

Yes but the flies in the face of Frawley getting the Demons pick 3 last year.

Which flew in the face of every compo before it.

 

[pulpdriver]

Realistically, would any family be enthused at the prospect of their young son moving interstate to a club with our reported level of disharmony?

Maybe kids/families in the industry get more insight but at this point I'm not sure anything that's recently happened is going to be change anyone's thinking of the Lions. Presumably he thought going to the Lions might be appealing, then had time to further adjust to it and then something in the last month changed his mind. Not sure what, we've been at worse or as bad stages with draftees willing to come to us.

 

[Ironmonger]

The problem for Carlton is they can't unload Kruezer with the certainty of getting pick 2.Massive dice roll.

They can get an indication from the AFL what the compo is likely to be, which it sounds like Silvagni has done already, from the Carlton media release/Jon Pierik article in The Age the other day.

As TheBrownDog has said, the AFL has every possible opportunity to prevent this from becoming a fiasco. They can quietly but firmly inform the Blues that they will not be getting pick 2, but they might get something upwards of band 2 compo depending on how generous they feel, and then Carlton can go away and make an informed decision about whether to match the Kreuzer offer.

The AFL have rigged the rules to give themselves maximum leverage, but in the process they've also given themselves maximum accountability. If this all goes belly-up we'll know who to blame.

 

[Eons]

Realistically, would any family be enthused at the prospect of their young son moving interstate to a club with our reported level of disharmony?

The other club/clubs he could go to aren't in any better position than us. That's where getting the Lamberts back is massive for us, they would allay any fears he and his family have.

 

[braddsey]

Just listening to Evans you get the feeling pick 2 won't get to Carlton.

I just listened to the interview again (on SEN website), but I didn't get any feeling either way specifically in regards to Kruezer. That said, he did mention that they look at the contract trends, and elements including base contract and match payments etc. You would think Kruezer's management would be looking for a high base payment, but given his injury history possible clubs may offer slightly lower base with match payment bonuses.
He did mention history etc. and the amount of football left. Also discussed things around protecting a certain number of picks in the draft from compo picks (though i guess that can't happen this year).

Someone earlier on (either an agent, or Scott Lucas) mentioned that a contract well in excess of $600K/year would be required for band-1 compo, and suggested Kruezer might struggle to get $600K with other players floating around (talk was around Collingwood being interested, but only being able to afford $570K).

The AFL has obviously shot themselves in the foot with the Frawley compensation... but they have the possibility to not propagate that wrong this year and going forward. Band-1 should be reserved for the absolute elite (ie Dangerfield, Rockliff, Buddy, Pendlebury), regardless of their initial draft pick or the value of the contract.

 

[BangyBangy]

The other club/clubs he could go to aren't in any better position than us. That's where getting the Lamberts back is massive for us, they would allay any fears he and his family have.

^ This!

 

[Tassie4ever]

Which flew in the face of every compo before it.

Which is why it was such a topic of hot criticism last year, IIRC.

And again, IIRC, there was a form of acknowledgement from official circles that the AFL got it wrong.

My suspicion is that they won't get it wrong twice.

Just in objective terms, Kreuzer isn't worth a Pick 2. Wouldn't ever swap Martin for him, put it that way.

 

[braddsey]

Just in objective terms, Kreuzer isn't worth a Pick 2. Wouldn't ever swap Martin for him, put it that way.

This is hardly surprising given Martin is widely regarded as one of the most improved player over the past 18 months, and there's been serious questions about why he isn't in the squad for All Australian selection.

What if Martin said he's definitely leaving at the end of next year? Would you then consider a swap?

 

[pulpdriver]

Free Agency

In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to GM – Football Operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result.

I'd expect the AFL to quietly remind a few journos of this stipulation for article material over the next week or so.

 

[John_Proctor]

Below are a variety of outs the afl could point to depending on circumstances if they don't want to give carlton band 1 for kreuzer compared to Frawley

1. Lower contract
2. Shorter contract
3. Higher contract but looking to be a higher a salary cap with new tv deal
4. Performance based contract
5. Kreuzer 9 months older than Frawley was last year
6. Based on comments above never been all australian (although not part of any info released on the formula)
7. Finally The rule does give the afl discretion and given everyone but carlton would be advantaged by not giving them pick 2 from a pr perspective it's still a good news story for the afl.