2015 Draft Discussion

[Tim F]

Second pick I mean

 

[Jman78]

Second pick I mean

If that happened i'd take hipwood, then use the 2 x 30 / 40s for keays and then match for chol. I also forsee a delistment for a williams draft too.... of course this depends on aish and bastinac etc

 

[POBT]

Hipwood is a bit of a wildcard, I think. Clubs will see him as all raw athletic potential. 200cm+ players who move like midfielders are going to draw some attention. We've seen guys get taken earlier than expected because of what is perceived to be untapped talent. If clubs look at the tall draft stocks and see weaknesses in all bar the top 2, they might be inclined to pull the trigger earlier than expected on a guy that they feel they could mould into something.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Hipwood is a bit of a wildcard, I think. Clubs will see him as all raw athletic potential. 200cm+ players who move like midfielders are going to draw some attention. We've seen guys get taken earlier than expected because of what is perceived to be untapped talent. If clubs look at the tall draft stocks and see weaknesses in all bar the top 2, they might be inclined to pull the trigger earlier than expected on a guy that they feel they could mould into something.

Possibly. On the flipside though if he's shot up a bit more in height, some clubs could be put off a bit. But it only takes one to call his name.

 

[xplo]

I feel like we're less likely to fight for Chol than Williams, and that's not underestimating his abilities. He seems pretty likely to get some interest from some other clubs and there's only so many gangly 'project talls' you can be developing at once. If you add Eric Hipwood to Harris Andrews and Archie Smith, he might actually get more opportunity elsewhere.

Not to say I wouldn't love him on our list, but as we know, you don't get to take home all the toys.

 

[POBT]

Possibly. On the flipside though if he's shot up a bit more in height, some clubs could be put off a bit. But it only takes one to call his name.

A bit like the "don't draft players under 180cm" thing, this will depend on individual clubs.

We're seeing more 200cm+ KPPs. We're seeing 192cm onballers. In 5-10 years, 205cm tall defenders and 196cm mids might be a thing.

Thankfully, I think that AFL clubs are less inclined to have arbitrary rules around physical dimensions than they were around 5 years ago.

I still think Hipwood will attract a bid in the teens. But clubs do funny things when they see someone like Hipwood who presents as a somewhat unique physical product. That's why I think he's a bit of a wildcard in the draft.

 

[whatboutbob]

Hipwood is a bit of a wildcard, I think. Clubs will see him as all raw athletic potential. 200cm+ players who move like midfielders are going to draw some attention. We've seen guys get taken earlier than expected because of what is perceived to be untapped talent. If clubs look at the tall draft stocks and see weaknesses in all bar the top 2, they might be inclined to pull the trigger earlier than expected on a guy that they feel they could mould into something.

Especially when actually getting the wildcard is a wildcard...

I reckon Crows will bid on him at least. They've got form. Tippett and... Andrews(?) IIRC...

 

[Haso]

Andrews(?) IIRC...

It was Freeman. Forced us to pay something in the 40s I believe.

 

[snooplions]

Freeman

Especially when actually getting the wildcard is a wildcard...

I reckon Crows will bid on him at least. They've got form. Tippett and... Andrews(?) IIRC...

 

[Gibbo_88]

Gee it's been an interesting few years for those that enjoy the draft.

5/6 years ago it didn't really matter where they came from, we all just assumed that our top draft picks would be lions for life.
Over the last few years it's been a case of "Not again" or "I wonder what his chances are of getting homesick".
Now we've got a bunch of highly rated locals of which we will take 2, potentially 5 this draft with another 2 next year.

It's a much better situation for our club but a bit of the draft excitement is gone IMO.

 

[Haso]

Gee it's been an interesting few years for those that enjoy the draft.

5/6 years ago it didn't really matter where they came from, we all just assumed that our top draft picks would be lions for life.
Over the last few years it's been a case of "Not again" or "I wonder what his chances are of getting homesick".
Now we've got a bunch of highly rated locals of which we will take 2, potentially 5 this draft with another 2 next year.

It's a much better situation for our club but a bit of the draft excitement is gone IMO.

Yeah it's pretty clear that our list building strategy has been shifted dramatically. In terms of trading we are bringing established QLD boys from other lists home (Beams, Bell) or bringing established player from others lists that have an emotional connection or reason for being in Brisbane (Robbo, Bundy, Bastinac). From a drafting perspective we still seem to be targetting the best available at the top end, albeit after doing some extensive research, but then focusing exclusively on academy talent.

Retention issues substantially quelled hopefully after a couple of years.

 

[POBT]

Especially when actually getting the wildcard is a wildcard...

I reckon Crows will bid on him at least. They've got form. Tippett and... Andrews(?) IIRC...

The most I could stretch it is Essendon, if they get both picks 4 and 5. They might be in a position to take a punt - take a mid with one pick and a tall with the other. They also seem to be taking a long term view of their list and a slow burn player like Hipwood might fit into that, particularly with a similar height player in Carlisle leaving. Still, it is highly unlikely, unless Sheeds has a say in drafting, given his love for project players.

Melbourne at pick 6 is also a remote possibility. They only have 2 players over 200cm on their list, both of whom are pure rucks. While they have good depth at key defender, they don't have much up forward, other than Hogan. Purely on list needs, they might put their hand up.

 

[KissKiss]

The most I could stretch it is Essendon, if they get both picks 4 and 5. They might be in a position to take a punt - take a mid with one pick and a tall with the other. They also seem to be taking a long term view of their list and a slow burn player like Hipwood might fit into that, particularly with a similar height player in Carlisle leaving. Still, it is highly unlikely, unless Sheeds has a say in drafting, given his love for project players.

Melbourne at pick 6 is also a remote possibility. They only have 2 players over 200cm on their list, both of whom are pure rucks. While they have good depth at key defender, they don't have much up forward, other than Hogan. Purely on list needs, they might put their hand up.

The Essendon Dodoro (can't remember his name) stated the other day that they are very interested in Parish, Curnow, Francis and Schache. Hopefully the last one is gone to us and then likely GC pick up Parish or Francis. Curnow as a speculative tall and a mid (or potential one in Francis) could very well be their picks. Not sure what Melbourne are likely to be after though

 

[POBT]

The Essendon Dodoro (can't remember his name) stated the other day that they are very interested in Parish, Curnow, Francis and Schache. Hopefully the last one is gone to us and then likely GC pick up Parish or Francis. Curnow as a speculative tall and a mid (or potential one in Francis) could very well be their picks. Not sure what Melbourne are likely to be after though

Melbourne supporters seem to be talking about either a key forward or a skilled mid. Obviously, that may not translate to their club's recruitment strategy.

The 3 highly rated Academy lads from the NSW clubs would all seem to be prototype Paul Roos footballers. If they haven't already been bid on, you could see Melbourne selecting all 3 and making the Giants/Swans match.

 

[KissKiss]

Melbourne supporters seem to be talking about either a key forward or a skilled mid. Obviously, that may not translate to their club's recruitment strategy.

The 3 highly rated Academy lads from the NSW clubs would all seem to be prototype Paul Roos footballers. If they haven't already been bid on, you could see Melbourne selecting all 3 and making the Giants/Swans match.

Yep agreed, would very likely see Hopper, Mills and Kennedy all bid on by Essendon and Melbourne. After the Heeney bid last year I'm sure Melbourne have no problem with taking the "risk" of bidding on them

 

[POBT]

Just on the Crows' possible draft intentions:

With picks nine, 13 and 28, the Crows will now go searching for elite talent at next month's draft – with two young South Australians in their sights.

Tall defender Aaron Francis from West Adelaide and Central Districts half-forward Wayne Milera are first-round prospects that the Crows are targeting.

"They bring great talent, you don't have to relocate guys … certainly those guys from an SA perspective have been very strong performers and would be very strong considerations for us," Noble said.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-20/crows-focus-on-draft-but-may-lose-kerridge-to-blues

They have been burned by player departures so this probably isn't too surprising.

 

[Fatcat08]

Melbourne supporters seem to be talking about either a key forward or a skilled mid. Obviously, that may not translate to their club's recruitment strategy.

The 3 highly rated Academy lads from the NSW clubs would all seem to be prototype Paul Roos footballers. If they haven't already been bid on, you could see Melbourne selecting all 3 and making the Giants/Swans match.

If Melbourne don't then Essendon will. Can't see them passing up on any of them given their midfield needs.

 

[KissKiss]

Just on the Crows' possible draft intentions:



http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-20/crows-focus-on-draft-but-may-lose-kerridge-to-blues

They have been burned by player departures so this probably isn't too surprising.

There does seem to be a fair bit of talk still of Francis sliding

 

[Nunez]

Quite amazing to think the last 3 drafts (this including have brought us the likes of:

Taylor
Mcstay
Robertson
Freeman
Gardiner
Aish*
Mcgrath
Beasley
Andrews
Dawson
Schache
Hipwood
Keays

Who all look very promising prospects for the long term.



*douche bag

 

[cotter101]

Quite amazing to think the last 3 drafts (this including have brought us the likes of:

Taylor
Mcstay
Robertson
Freeman
Gardiner
Aish*
Mcgrath
Beasley
Andrews
Dawson
Schache
Hipwood
Keays

Who all look very promising prospects for the long term.



*douche bag

Our recruiting has been pretty good since 2008, right up there if not ahead of other clubs. Retaining players is a whole different story.

 

[CarterS]

Surely the very fact that clubs know we will 99% certain be matching any bids for these players will mean they are less likely to pick them anyway?

 

[greendiesel]

Surely the very fact that clubs know we will 99% certain be matching any bids for these players will mean they are less likely to pick them anyway?

The boys might also be deemed flight risks to non QLD clubs...This may deter them also.

 

[T Rick]

Surely the very fact that clubs know we will 99% certain be matching any bids for these players will mean they are less likely to pick them anyway?

Or more likely - just to force their price up for us!

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I can't see any club bidding on a player they don't intend on taking. Stakes are just too high for that kind of tomfoolery

 

[Fatcat08]

I can't see any club bidding on a player they don't intend on taking. Stakes are just too high for that kind of tomfoolery

Yeah this isn't a trade game on a computer with no real world repercussions. There are very real outcomes and potential downfalls especially given the changes to the bidding system.