Strategy 2015 Draft Prospects

[*PAF]

I must be missing something as I don't understand why academy picks push us back rather than forwards.
Isn't the rule that if someone bids their first rounder then the academy club must use their very next pick plus add one or more later ones to make up the difference?

 

[CharlieKelly]

Brett Anderson and Ben Casanella of Inside Football/SEN reckon 5 academy kids will be picked up in the 1st round and in the 2nd St Kilda pick up Rice under the father son bid, before our pick which turns 32 into 38 and reckon we will take White. All those early academy picks means others will be knocked out and 49 becomes 43 and we will take Cornell.

oh! of course! I hadn't factored that in, Harrison Himmelberg and Jock Cornell will probably go in the second and third round, so yes, you're quite right

GWS will go into deficit in 2016 to match those bids, which they can afford to anyway, since they have Collingwood and Geelong's R1 picks next year

but the point is that our wait won't be as long, eight picks, not 17

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

Brett Anderson and Ben Casanella of Inside Football/SEN reckon 5 academy kids will be picked up in the 1st round and in the 2nd St Kilda pick up Rice under the father son bid, before our pick which turns 32 into 38 and reckon we will take White. All those early academy picks means others will be knocked out and 49 becomes 43 and we will take Cornell.

im so confused by the academy picks process

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

I must be missing something as I don't understand why academy picks push us back rather than forwards.
Isn't the rule that if someone bids their first rounder then the academy club must use their very next pick plus add one or more later ones to make up the difference?

its got me stumped as well, cos thats what i thought it was too

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I must be missing something as I don't understand why academy picks push us back rather than forwards.
Isn't the rule that if someone bids their first rounder then the academy club must use their very next pick plus add one or more later ones to make up the difference?

Melbourne has pick 3 and bid for Callum Mills. Sydney matches it so pick 3 is recorded in the books as Sydney's pick and Melbourne now officially has pick 4. Sydney lose their pick 33 as they traded away 14 to St Kilda. So in that 1 transaction pick 3 is added to the draft and 33 and Sydney's next picks adding up to the Draft Value Index of pick 3 ie 2,234 pts - 36, 37, 44 and 54 are eliminated.

Essendon originally had picks 4 and 5 which becomes 5 and 6 but apparently they are going to bid for Jacob Hooper so GWS match that and they officially get pick 5 recorded as their pick and Essendon in the books now get picks since and 7

Before bids
1. Carlt
2. Bris
3. Melb
4. Ess
5. Ess

After bids
1. Carlt
2. Bris
3. Callum Mills Sydney
4. Melb
5. Jacob Hooper GWS
6. Ess
7. Ess

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

oh! of course! I hadn't factored that in, Harrison Himmelberg and Jock Cornell will probably go in the second and third round, so yes, you're quite right

GWS will go into deficit in 2016 to match those bids, which they can afford to anyway, since they have Collingwood and Geelong's R1 picks next year

but the point is that our wait won't be as long, eight picks, not 17

They have Rice going at pick 34 to the saints. 29 is Essendon, 30 North, 31 Collingwood, 32 North and 33 Gold Coast.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

im so confused by the academy picks process

see my answer 2 above this post.

 

[CharlieKelly]

that does it REH! I'm going to the newsagent around the corner from my house, buy a copy of Inside Footy and have a look at this phantom draft!

 

[Portology]

I must be missing something as I don't understand why academy picks push us back rather than forwards.
Isn't the rule that if someone bids their first rounder then the academy club must use their very next pick plus add one or more later ones to make up the difference?

its got me stumped as well, cos thats what i thought it was too

Yes. In REH's example Sydney's first pick, 33, is recorded as having been used as pick 3, Melbourne's pick 3 becomes pick 4, so our pick 32 becomes 33.

Net effect of all such bidding on our pick 32 is to push it backwards as picks not too far behind ours are used by academy and F/S clubs as the base pick to match a bid and are recorded as used at the pick bid by the other club. To make up the required points (in the example, between 33 and 3), clubs will use multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks*. Those 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't "traded", in essence the "value" in the picks is being extracted, so with zero "value" remaining those later picks naturally shuffle to the very end of the draft. The bids made in the first round will result in a few picks between our (original) 32 and 49 moving ahead of us in the draft, but in several more moving to the end of the draft, which has the net effect of dragging 49 forwards. There is also a chance some lesser regarded academy players are bid on in the 32-49 ish range, and are matched by clubs using 3rd and 4th rounders. So there is a second order effect that could potentially push our (original) 49 backwards a little, but the bids made in the first round involve the biggest points scores by a long way so are the ones that impact the order most.

*and if they don't have enough points when they add all those picks up they can go into a small deficit on points and "pay" the following year

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I wonder if Melbourne bid for Mills and miss out, if they are tempted to bid for Hooper?? By doing that they might cause GWS to go into deficit next year, which could benefit Melbourne next year if they have eyes on similar players.

 

[Macca19]

Hopper would suit them perfectly

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

at first glance, does the points system seem fair? Cos in your example above, to get a pick 3 player for a bunch of late picks seems like a bargain. Im surprised the pick 54 has any currency at all.

Melbourne has pick 3 and bid for Callum Mills. Sydney matches it so pick 3 is recorded in the books as Sydney's pick and Melbourne now officially has pick 4. Sydney lose their pick 33 as they traded away 14 to St Kilda. So in that 1 transaction pick 3 is added to the draft and 33 and Sydney's next picks adding up to the Draft Value Index of pick 3 ie 2,234 pts - 36, 37, 44 and 54 are eliminated.

Essendon originally had picks 4 and 5 which becomes 5 and 6 but apparently they are going to bid for Jacob Hooper so GWS match that and they officially get pick 5 recorded as their pick and Essendon in the books now get picks since and 7

Before bids
1. Carlt
2. Bris
3. Melb
4. Ess
5. Ess

After bids
1. Carlt
2. Bris
3. Callum Mills Sydney
4. Melb
5. Jacob Hooper GWS
6. Ess
7. Ess

EDIT according to that draft calculator that you referenced to in trade week, thos picks arent enough

 

[Forzaport]

I wonder if Melbourne bid for Mills and miss out, if they are tempted to bid for Hooper?? By doing that they might cause GWS to go into deficit next year, which could benefit Melbourne next year if they have eyes on similar players.

Will be interesting to see if the clubs gamble by placing a higher bid on a player to force a higher points price.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

at first glance, does the points system seem fair? Cos in your example above, to get a pick 3 player for a bunch of late picks seems like a bargain. Im surprised the pick 54 has any currency at all.




EDIT according to that draft calculator that you referenced to in trade week, thos picks arent enough

View attachment 192099

There is a 20% discount so the calculation is 2,234 X 80% =1,787. That calulator was good for equivalent trades not the discount.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

There is a 20% discount so the calculation is 2,234 X 80% =1,787. That calulator was good for equivalent trades not the discount.

it still falls short though

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

it still falls short though

So they either give up one more pick and if they go over they get a new pick further down or they carry forward the deficit and that effects the draft order next year.

They can only give up the picks they have to fill up their list. Ie if they have 37 on the list they can only give up 3 picks and a y deficit gets carried forward.

 

[*PAF]

Yes. In REH's example Sydney's first pick, 33, is recorded as having been used as pick 3, Melbourne's pick 3 becomes pick 4, so our pick 32 becomes 33.

Net effect of all such bidding on our pick 32 is to push it backwards as picks not too far behind ours are used by academy and F/S clubs as the base pick to match a bid and are recorded as used at the pick bid by the other club. To make up the required points (in the example, between 33 and 3), clubs will use multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks*. Those 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't "traded", in essence the "value" in the picks is being extracted, so with zero "value" remaining those later picks naturally shuffle to the very end of the draft. The bids made in the first round will result in a few picks between our (original) 32 and 49 moving ahead of us in the draft, but in several more moving to the end of the draft, which has the net effect of dragging 49 forwards. There is also a chance some lesser regarded academy players are bid on in the 32-49 ish range, and are matched by clubs using 3rd and 4th rounders. So there is a second order effect that could potentially push our (original) 49 backwards a little, but the bids made in the first round involve the biggest points scores by a long way so are the ones that impact the order most.

*and if they don't have enough points when they add all those picks up they can go into a small deficit on points and "pay" the following year

That is fair enough for Sydney but aren't there supposed to be some first rounder academy picks for GWS and GCS as well?
Obviously I haven't been following the draft but I've been reading about all these kids GWS and GCS are supposed to be picking up thanks to their academies.

 

[Macca19]

at first glance, does the points system seem fair? Cos in your example above, to get a pick 3 player for a bunch of late picks seems like a bargain.

It is probably a bargain in isolation, but in the end the extra picks they use move to the back of the draft, so if they have 5 or 6 spots on their list to fill (for example) and they end up going great player + shit picks, are they better off than if they use the 2 or 3 second round picks they would have stockpiled in the trades?

 

[*PAF]

Ok.
This is part of what I was referring to.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-12...academy-selections-may-force-out-current-star

http://m.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-p...ar-at-gws-giants/story-e6frf3e3-1227592685860

Surely GWS will need to use both 9 and 27 thus our first pick moves up a spot or two.

 

[CharlieKelly]

at first glance, does the points system seem fair? Cos in your example above, to get a pick 3 player for a bunch of late picks seems like a bargain. Im surprised the pick 54 has any currency at all.




EDIT according to that draft calculator that you referenced to in trade week, thos picks arent enough

View attachment 192099

there's a 20% discount for Academy and Father Son, so therefore, 2234 x 0.8 = 1787 points Sydney need to spend

1787 - 563 (Pick 33) = 1224 points, not enough, Pick 33 to back of the draft
1224 - 502 (Pick 36) = 722 points, not enough, Pick 36 to back of the draft
722 - 483 (Pick 37) = 239 points, not enough, Pick 37 to the back of the draft
239 - 362 (Pick 44) = -123 points, Pick 44 becomes Pick 63 on points value as it's now worth 123 points

 

[*PAF]

List of academy players.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2015-09-30/highlyrated-pair-nominated-as-academy-picks-for-draft

 

[mic59]

Ok.
This is part of what I was referring to.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-12...academy-selections-may-force-out-current-star

At first glance it would appear to be no question that the northern clubs retain academy selections, but your link does bring up the question of boundaries.

The club's aim for the academy is to retain and attract talent in a competitive non-AFL sports market, but rivals have questioned its hold of football-rich parts of the Riverina, including Albury, Deniliquin and Wagga Wagga.

 

[Boxx]

People have to also remember that while yes, the actual pick number gets pushed out, the players are still likely to be exactly the same as the academy and f/s kids were never available to select anyway!

 

[Lockhart Road]

People have to also remember that while yes, the actual pick number gets pushed out, the players are still likely to be exactly the same as the academy and f/s kids were never available to select anyway!

They could make a science fiction movie based on this plot. I've given up on it a long time ago.

What happened to KISS ?

 

[Zakk Wylde]

They could make a science fiction movie based on this plot. I've given up on it a long time ago.

What happened to KISS ?

They got old...