Strategy 2015 Draft Prospects

[Popielnicki]

Let's be honest

At the rate that Rhys Mathieson is free falling we'll be able to get him in the rookie draft

Went through Paige's mock draft from October Rhys Mathieson was pick 7 and Oliver was pick 23 they seem to have swapped value I'd take Rhys

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

If we draft Dan Houston and he doesn't arrive at training in a Ferrari with two Dobermans sitting on the back seat I'm gonna be mighty disappointed.

Don't forget the blond next to him.

 

[Concussion]

i have seen Lovell play a few times down here and while he is an accumulator they are generally cheap possesions (1-2 handballs) and he is lazy with no defensive side to his games, always forward of the ball.... do not think he is suitable for our game style considering weve let go of Moore and Newton in the past 2 seasons and still have Young, SGray, Ebert and others that will play the same role with better effect.

 

[mic59]

Paige Cardona has done 3 drafts as trades and likely draft positions altered. The third and final one has us taking Will Snelling at 38 and Alex Morgan at 44. Although if things pan out the way she has it I would have thought Michael Hartley who goes to Melbourne at 45 would be a better option. Alex Morgan is a 181cm defender and we already have a few small to mid defenders. Michael Hartley is a 198cm and 102kg key defender, a position where we don't have much back-up.
The original draft has us taking the 200cm Ben McKay at our first pick(then 31) but apart from our pick dropping in trading and bidding Ben has moved up in the mock draft to go to the Bulldogs at 24. Link to all 3 drafts below.

http://footyprophet.com/author/paige-cardona/

 

[FallingLiefs]

Why has Mathieson slid so far?

 

[Coobk001]

Id be very surprised if we went near a key defender. We have a lot of coverage in that area. It'd have to be our last need.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Why has Mathieson slid so far?

All of a sudden the 10 players below him are perceived to have something special (thats why players like Darling can slide).

 

[Concussion]

All of a sudden the 10 players below him are perceived to have something special (thats why players like Darling can slide).

didnt Darling slide due to rumours being circulated by WA recruiters about him being a 'bad boy' in order to keep him in WA?

 

[Wargreymon90]

didnt Darling slide due to rumours being circulated by WA recruiters about him being a 'bad boy' in order to keep him in WA?

More then rumours. He did do some average things.

 

[Willsy10]

Forgive my ignorance but how come we've recently slid down the draft order with our first pick but up with our second pick?

 

[Macca19]

Why has Mathieson slid so far?

Had a very poor draft camp. 3.10 20m was in the bottom half, bottom 4 or 5 for mids that tested. Had the worst beep test of any midfielder tested. Poor in the repeat sprints & agility test. Rumours over his attitude, commitment. Clearly didnt prepare well enough for the end of year stuff.

Its Matt Crouch mk II. Has obvious talent, could easily become a 100+ game player and a very good one, but theres enough doubt to put people off.

 

[Concussion]

Forgive my ignorance but how come we've recently slid down the draft order with our first pick but up with our second pick?

academy players being acquired by clubs and the new points system i reckon

 

[Willsy10]

academy players being acquired by clubs and the new points system i reckon

It's really confusing now.

 

[Macca19]

Forgive my ignorance but how come we've recently slid down the draft order with our first pick but up with our second pick?

Its all to do with the bidding process.

Sydney will need to use 33, 36 & 37 to match the bid for Mills. 33 moves up the draft order to where the bid is made. 36 & 37 move (essentially) to the back of the draft. So in between our 1st and 2nd pick are 10 draft picks for academy clubs. They will all dissapear due to the bidding process, which makes our first pick lower (but we still have the same 'live' pick value) and our 2nd pick higher.

 

[Macca19]

Heres my draft rankings for a bit of fun. On average there are around 26 players who go on to play 100 games taken in the national draft (figures taken from 96-06). Even in poor years there are still over 20 100+ game players drafted. So heres my rankings set out a little different:

I've got 21 players that I think will play 100 games:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Aaron Francis
3. Jacob Hopper
4. Josh Schache
5. Wayne Milera
6. Callum Mills
7. Darcy Parish
8. Matthew Kennedy
9. Riley Bonner
10. Harry Mckay
11. Mitch Hibberd
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Ben Keays
14. Tom Cole
15. Brayden Fiorini
16. Charlie Curnow
17. Darcy Tucker
18. Sam Weideman
19. David Cunningham
20. Eric Hipwood
21. Bailey Rice

Players with a Question mark:
22. Ryan Burton
23. Rhys Mathieson
24. Clayton Oliver
25. Jade Gresham
26. Callum AhChee
27. Luke Partington
28. Sam Skinner
29. Kieran Collins
30. Josh Dunkley
31. Daniel Rioli
32. Aidyn Johnson
33. Declan Mountford
34. Stephen Tahana
35. Andrew Teshevski-Beckwith
36. Alex Morgan
37. Harrison Himmelberg
38. James Parsons
39. Yestin Eades
40. Will Snelling
41. Mason Redman
42. Kieran Lovell
43. Ben Mckay
44. Kurt Mutimer
45. Bailey Williams
46. Brandon White
47. Greg Clark
48. Corey Wagner

Not confident on:
everyone else

 

[Concussion]

It's really confusing now.

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2015-11-22/draft-bidding-for-dummies

 

[mic59]

Callum Ah Chee is firming in the mock drafts . Paige Cardona has him to Richmond at 15, Cal Twomey has him to Gold Coast at 7, Emma Quayle also has him to Gold Coast, but at pick 8 as she has a slightly different opinion to Cal Twomey on academy bidding.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Question mark on Kieran Collins? To me he looks like a team's no. 2 defender for a long time. Oldest looking child I've ever seen.

 

[*PAF]

Forgive my ignorance but how come we've recently slid down the draft order with our first pick but up with our second pick?

Took me ages to work out the reason for doing it. Finally got it thanks to one of Macca's posts a few days back.
It has to do with the new bidding system where a predetermined nominal value is assigned to each draft pick.

If a team has to match picks, the value assigned to each pick is determined by the pick number.

Say GWS has pick 21 and pick 21 is worth x points.
BUT if by the time their turn comes around and 2 extra players have gone, thanks to Brisbane and Sydney drafting 2 academy players, it's actual live value is now whatever pick 23 is worth because he will be the 23rd player picked and not the 21st.

That is why picks slide down the order.

EDIT: It makes no difference to who we draft as academy or FS players were always going to go somewhere else, but it does make a difference for teams that need to bundle picks to match offers.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Gold Coast should not take ah Chee. Not what they need at all

 

[Arsene Wenger]

cue the recruiters and clubs trotting out the old "cant believe that [Player A] slid to our pick - stoked to get him and he is, in our view a 200 game player who could debut in round 1 2016."

 

[Macca19]

Question mark on Kieran Collins? To me he looks like a team's no. 2 defender for a long time. Oldest looking child I've ever seen.

I like him, just not 100% sold. Does he have the scope of improvement, or is he another Matthew Watson/Mitch Brown. U18 monsters who couldnt convert their game to the highest level. Thats why I have a question mark.

Mind you, can also see him slotting into a team straight away and playing for 10 years.

 

[Macca19]

Gold Coast should not take ah Chee. Not what they need at all

Their fans arent exactly keen on their board.

 

[Power freak 2008]

Not really looked at the prospects as much this year. All I know is that a few years ago this was the reaction from kids when our club called out their name



And now

 

[It Just Is]

Gold Coast should not take ah Chee. Not what they need at all

Worth remembering they basically gave away pick 3.

I like Ah Chee but if my club gave up a top three pick for a small forward who struggled at the 18's champs and bombed at the draft combine I wouldn't be happy either.