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Preview 2015 Predictions

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Man on a mission here.

this is a great thread packed with fascinating info on the board's predictions for 2015. But its a little hard to digest in its current form. So I've started analysing the data. So far I've determined where we think the Pies will sit on the ladder at the end of 2015 (on average):

8th on ladder

How did I do this? 48 submissions; summed estimates; divided by 48. Those that predicted in a range I used the middle of that prediction - e.g. 9th to 11th I adjusted to 10th.

Please let me know - shall I continue to extract further stats from our poll?
 
Douglass said:
Man on a mission here.

this is a great thread packed with fascinating info on the board's predictions for 2015. But its a little hard to digest in its current form. So I've started analysing the data. So far I've determined where we think the Pies will sit on the ladder at the end of 2015 (on average):

8th on ladder

How did I do this? 48 submissions; summed estimates; divided by 48. Those that predicted in a range I used the middle of that prediction - e.g. 9th to 11th I adjusted to 10th.

Please let me know - shall I continue to extract further stats from our poll?
Click to expand...
yes. good idea
 
Most games played by a first year player?

Freeman is not technically a first year player and Greenwood is an established player, but I'm going on what was submitted by you good folk.
 

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Who will kick the most goals?

No surprises here.
 

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Who will be on the AA team?

Hey I'm waning here. Ready for the full time siren. This will do me for the moment:

I've listed the number of times each player has been mentioned, in order presented by our pundits. It's probably best read by going directly to the last column for the total votes. Note that there were two submissions that had no players in the AA team. That explains why Pendlebury gets 46 votes out of a sample size of 48.
 

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Douglass said:
Who will be on the AA team?

Hey I'm waning here. Ready for the full time siren. This will do me for the moment:

I've listed the number of times each player has been mentioned, in order presented by our pundits. It's probably best read by going directly to the last column for the total votes. Note that there were two submissions that had no players in the AA team. That explains why Pendlebury gets 46 votes out of a sample size of 48.
Click to expand...
Good work douglass. I don't know about the others but I have enjoyed your summaries. Look forward to seeing the rest of them when you have the time. :thumbsu:
 
Rob Millar said:
I'd suggest due to "14. Which player will change position? Reid to FF, Cloke back out to CHF" and thinking Cloke will spend more time up the ground. May be wrong.
Click to expand...
Nup bang on.....hopefully Cloke plays further up the ground, with Reid/Witts the deeper targets, or even at times play Swan/Elliott out of the goal square for a change up.

Cloke won a BnF for us when he was a kid playing predominantly as our CHF, let him go back to that role.
 
1. Where will we finish on the ladder?6th
2. B&F winner? Pendles
3. Which first year player (drafted in 2014) will play the most games? De Goey
4. Leading goalkicker? Cloke
5. Who will be selected in the AA team? Pendles, Elliott, Cloke, Sidebottom
6. Most improved player? Jesse White
7. Who will earn Rising Star nominations? Jordan De Goey, Nathan Freeman, Tim Broomhead
8. Most Brownlow votes? Pendles
9. Who will retire? Clinton Young
10. Who will be delisted?Armstrong, Gault, Ramsay
11. Which 2014 recruit will perform the best? Greenwood
12. VFL B&F winner? Scharenberg
13. More or less injuries than in 2014? Less
14. Which player will change position? Tom Langdon (Midfield/Wing)
15. How many times will we beat a top 4 side? 3
16. Will GWS get their first win against us? No
17. Who will finish top 5 in our B&F?Pendles, Sidebottom, Greenwood, Elliot, Cloke
18. Will we beat Brisbane round 1?Yes 40+ points
19. Will Dane Swan improve on his 2014 form? Yes.
20. How many goals will Cloke kick?78

Injuries aside I'm glass half full and looking forward to a successful season. If key players improve and we maintain our best 22-25 on the park with KPP like Reid/Brown fit we'll go along way to giving the top 4-6 a shake-up!
 
ottoman said:
Good work douglass. I don't know about the others but I have enjoyed your summaries. Look forward to seeing the rest of them when you have the time. :thumbsu:
Click to expand...

Thanks again ottoman. I have another two analyses below. I'll work through all the data but it will take a few goes to get there.

6. Most improved player?

Almost a quarter of respondents called it as Adams.
Interestingly about a 5th of respondents went for Witts.
What is striking is that there is a wide number of players mentioned (16).

7. Who will earn rising star nominations?

Freeman, Broomhead and De Goey lead this by a country mile with respectively 78%, 73% and 49% of respondents having them in their lists for Rising Star nominations. Maynard and Moore are in 20% and 18% of respondents' lists.

Screen Shot 2015-01-06 at 10.38.17 pm.png
 

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Douglass said:
Man on a mission here.

this is a great thread packed with fascinating info on the board's predictions for 2015. But its a little hard to digest in its current form. So I've started analysing the data. So far I've determined where we think the Pies will sit on the ladder at the end of 2015 (on average):

8th on ladder

How did I do this? 48 submissions; summed estimates; divided by 48. Those that predicted in a range I used the middle of that prediction - e.g. 9th to 11th I adjusted to 10th.

Please let me know - shall I continue to extract further stats from our poll?
Click to expand...

Good work. Would use would the median be?
 
1. Where will we finish on the ladder? 8th
2. B&F winner? Sidebottom
3. Which first year player (drafted in 2014) will play the most games? De Goey
4. Leading goalkicker? Cloke
5. Who will be selected in the AA team? Pendles, Sidebottom
6. Most improved player? Witts
7. Who will earn Rising Star nominations? Freeman, Broomhead
8. Most Brownlow votes? Pendles
9. Who will retire? None
10. Who will be delisted? Armstrong
11. Which 2014 recruit will perform the best? Greenwood
12. VFL B&F winner?
13. More or less injuries than in 2014? Less
14. Which player will change position? Swan, Williams (tagger)
15. How many times will we beat a top 4 side? 2
16. Will GWS get their first win against us? No
17. Who will finish top 5 in our B&F? Pendles, Sidebottom, Elliot, Adams, Swan
18. Will we beat Brisbane round 1? Yes
19. Will Dane Swan improve on his 2014 form? Yes
20. How many goals will Cloke kick? 50
 

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We now 6th-7th last best team.
Saints
Melbourne
Dogs at G.
West Coast at G.
Gws
Carlton

Are the only teams I now see us better than.
 
THATSGOLD said:
We now 6th-7th last best team.
Saints
Melbourne
Dogs at G.
West Coast at G.
Gws
Carlton

Are the only teams I now see us better than.
Click to expand...

As I'm playing stats man at the moment, that makes you part of the 8% of respondents to question of where we sit on the ladder (see previous ladder predictor).
 
Douglass said:
As I'm playing stats man at the moment, that makes you part of the 8% of respondents to question of where we sit on the ladder (see previous ladder predictor).
Click to expand...

Interesting use of last and best in the same sentence though.
 
To the question of who will pull the most Brownlow votes:

Hold your breath ... Pendlebury! 84% of you thought so. 8% thought Swan still has it in him and 8% see Sidebottom the "Beams" heir apparent.

Screen Shot 2015-01-07 at 6.35.04 pm.png
 
1. Where will we finish on the ladder? 5th
2. B&F winner? Cloke
3. Which first year player (drafted in 2014) will play the most games? Moore
4. Leading goalkicker? Cloke
5. Who will be selected in the AA team? Cloke, Pendlebury, Marsh
6. Most improved player? Adams
7. Who will earn Rising Star nominations? Marsh, Moore
8. Most Brownlow votes? Pendlebury
9. Who will retire? Swan
10. Who will be delisted? Armstrong, Karnezis
11. Which 2014 recruit will perform the best? Greenwood
12. VFL B&F winner? Sinclair
13. More or less injuries than in 2014? Less
14. Which player will change position? Kennedy (from bench to the ground)
15. How many times will we beat a top 4 side? 2
16. Will GWS get their first win against us? no
17. Who will finish top 5 in our B&F? Cloke, Pendlebury, Adams, Marsh, Sidebottom
18. Will we beat Brisbane round 1? Yes
19. Will Dane Swan improve on his 2014 form? Yes
20. How many goals will Cloke kick? 71
 

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