2015 SC / Player Watch..

[Jiska]

I think the point they are trying to make is that any consistent scoring from Ryder came when he was playing predominantly in the ruck. When TBC was up and running his scores suffered (he did have a couple of good games up forward, but few and far between). Given that Lobbe is a better ruck than TBC the assumption would be that Ryder will have less time in the ruck.

Ryder will be huge for Port, but I think he will be a role player, which will see his scores suffer.

This.

Ryder will be the #2 ruck at Port, not the #1 he was at the Bombers.

To put things into prospective, for roughly same price you could grab Wines, Dal Santo, Jack, Goddard, Redden, Griffen.

 

[karaoke]

for roughly same price you could grab Wines, Dal Santo, Jack, Goddard, Redden, Griffen.

But do they have R/F DPP though?

 

[Determinant]

Please post the averages of Dean Cox over the same period so that we can compare the two, given they were both #1 rucks at their club during the same period.

Ryder won't be #1 at Port, so fair to say he'll drop slightly.

I'm not sure how it's relevant to my point, which was to show that Ryder's output was hardly deserving of him being labelled "hopeless", in that light you really need Hampson's stats, but Cox's are below;

Year Gms Avg
2007 19 98.0
2008 22 111.8
2009 13 111.1
2010 22 88.0
2011 22 122.2
2012 22 112.3
2013 22 107.3
2014 17 89.2

 

[Determinant]

This is how I would define "hopeless", Exihibit labelled Megan's man;

Year Gms Avg
2007 2 18.0
2008 10 30.8
2009 14 48.7
2010 8 49.2
2011 9 64.6
2012 13 70.7
2013 6 68.8
2014 11 75.9

 

[MightyMark]

Ok Determinant, I need your GWS insight here.

There are only so many points any teams midfield can score.

GWS has proven top 10 scorers in Ward and Griffen, elite break out contenders in Greene and Treloar, Premo break out contenders in Shiel, and D. Smith (at least he is DPP) and god knows how much improvement to come from Whitfield, Coniglio and Kelly.

So, if you look at that list what are your expectations with their scoring.

Will Ward maintain 110 ppg avergae, will Greene or Treloar reach 110 ppg average, will Griffen re-capture his form, will Shiel and D. Smith top the ton, or will Whitfield and Coniglio emerge and take points away from everyone.

This has been doing my head in all week. At this stage im just looking at leaving them all out, because i'd rather not have any of them than pick the wrong one, and resent it.

 

[Feerits Elf]

D. Smith (at least he is DPP)

Smith is a FWD only.

 

[Determinant]

Ok Determinant, I need your GWS insight here.

There are only so many points any teams midfield can score.

GWS has proven top 10 scorers in Ward and Griffen, elite break out contenders in Greene and Treloar, Premo break out contenders in Shiel, and D. Smith (at least he is DPP) and god knows how much improvement to come from Whitfield, Coniglio and Kelly.

So, if you look at that list what are your expectations with their scoring.

Will Ward maintain 110 ppg avergae, will Greene or Treloar reach 110 ppg average, will Griffen re-capture his form, will Shiel and D. Smith top the ton, or will Whitfield and Coniglio emerge and take points away from everyone.

This has been doing my head in all week. At this stage im just looking at leaving them all out, because i'd rather not have any of them than pick the wrong one, and resent it.

Love the easy questions

Preface everything below with this is educated opinion only, I am looking towards the preseason to finalise my own team in general and the players from teams like GWS, Dogs, Saints and Demons who could field very different SC relevant teams in 2015.

On average last year GWS scored 1602 of 3300 ppg, given that 1650 is 50% there isn't much room for growth unless we start to dominate, that's unlikely in 2015 so assume a team growth of 50 to 75 points max. For ref Melb avg 1556, GC 1588, and even Hawthorn only 1730. so large movement is unlikely.
Griffen's 98 odd from last year wont be added, someone has to come out, assume 70 points, so for Griffen to avg 98 the rest of the entire team can only improve by 40 odd points, over the full year.

Injuries allowing each week we will field Ward, Griffen, Treloar, Greene, Whitfield, Kelly, Shiel, Smith, Mumford, Shaw, WHE, Coniglio, Scully, Haynes, Hampton and Tomlinson. Those are the players I expect to see on our SC leaderboard week to week.
By my current estimates, which were not entirely accurate for the team last year that group will gain just over 100 points, so they will be taking points from elsewhere.

Player Price Gms14 GmsTot Ave 2014 Est 2015 Variance

Shane Mumford $ 613,700.00 17 117 114.2 115.0 0.8
Callan Ward $ 606,000.00 20 121 112.8 110.0 - 2.8
Adam Treloar $ 577,800.00 20 58 107.5 115.0 7.5
Toby Greene $ 553,300.00 15 53 102.9 105.0 2.1
Ryan Griffen $ 530,700.00 19 202 98.7 100.0 1.3
Dylan Shiel $ 509,400.00 17 50 94.8 100.0 5.2
Lachie Whitfield $ 426,600.00 11 30 79.4 95.0 15.6
Devon Smith $ 490,200.00 21 59 91.2 95.0 3.8
Stephen Coniglio $ 448,800.00 14 44 83.5 90.0 6.5
Josh Kelly $ 365,800.00 18 18 68.1 85.0 16.9
Heath Shaw $ 497,800.00 18 191 92.6 85.0 - 7.6
Tom Scully $ 425,000.00 15 86 79.1 85.0 5.9
Curtly Hampton $ 402,600.00 11 46 74.9 85.0 10.1
Nick Haynes $ 383,600.00 8 27 71.4 80.0 8.6
Adam Tomlinson $ 371,700.00 19 45 69.2 80.0 10.8
Will Hoskin-Elliott $ 360,900.00 20 39 67.2 80.0 12.9

 

[MightyMark]

Love the easy questions

Preface everything below with this is educated opinion only, I am looking towards the preseason to finalise my own team in general and the players from teams like GWS, Dogs, Saints and Demons who could field very different SC relevant teams in 2015.

On average last year GWS scored 1602 of 3300 ppg, given that 1650 is 50% there isn't much room for growth unless we start to dominate, that's unlikely in 2015 so assume a team growth of 50 to 75 points max. For ref Melb avg 1556, GC 1588, and even Hawthorn only 1730. so large movement is unlikely.
Griffen's 98 odd from last year wont be added, someone has to come out, assume 70 points, so for Griffen to avg 98 the rest of the entire team can only improve by 40 odd points, over the full year.

Injuries allowing each week we will field Ward, Griffen, Treloar, Greene, Whitfield, Kelly, Shiel, Smith, Mumford, Shaw, WHE, Coniglio, Scully, Haynes, Hampton and Tomlinson. Those are the players I expect to see on our SC leaderboard week to week.
By my current estimates, which were not entirely accurate for the team last year that group will gain just over 100 points, so they will be taking points from elsewhere.

Player Price Gms14 GmsTot Ave 2014 Est 2015 Variance

Shane Mumford $ 613,700.00 17 117 114.2 115.0 0.8
Callan Ward $ 606,000.00 20 121 112.8 110.0 - 2.8
Adam Treloar $ 577,800.00 20 58 107.5 115.0 7.5
Toby Greene $ 553,300.00 15 53 102.9 105.0 2.1
Ryan Griffen $ 530,700.00 19 202 98.7 100.0 1.3
Dylan Shiel $ 509,400.00 17 50 94.8 100.0 5.2
Lachie Whitfield $ 426,600.00 11 30 79.4 95.0 15.6
Devon Smith $ 490,200.00 21 59 91.2 95.0 3.8
Stephen Coniglio $ 448,800.00 14 44 83.5 90.0 6.5
Josh Kelly $ 365,800.00 18 18 68.1 85.0 16.9
Heath Shaw $ 497,800.00 18 191 92.6 85.0 - 7.6
Tom Scully $ 425,000.00 15 86 79.1 85.0 5.9
Curtly Hampton $ 402,600.00 11 46 74.9 85.0 10.1
Nick Haynes $ 383,600.00 8 27 71.4 80.0 8.6
Adam Tomlinson $ 371,700.00 19 45 69.2 80.0 10.8
Will Hoskin-Elliott $ 360,900.00 20 39 67.2 80.0 12.9

Thank Determinant.

My concern comes from the fact that last year, only Sydney had 5 players with an average of over 100 ppg (however this includes Franklin in the forward line and Malceski in the backs) but the total was only 5.

In case you wanted to know:

Brisbane: 4
Gold Coast: 3
Collingwood: 3
Freo: 4
Adelaide: 3
GWS: 4
West Coast: 1
Sydney: 5
Port: 3
Dogs: 2
Hawthorn: 1
North: 3
Melbourne: 1
Essendon: 4
Carlton: 2
Richmond: 2
Saints: 1
Geelong: 4

You have 5 midfielders and a ruck all topping the ton (I know this is speculative, but..).

Can you really see GWS fielding a team where 40% of their score is taken up by 6 players? Based on how teams went last year, that's fairly lop sided for a side looking to make the finals.

For the record, I've currently got D. Smith in the FWD line and Greene in the MIDS, Greene's end to last year was awesome.

 

[Jiska]

It's Smith OR Greene for mine. Limit the amount of speculative risks.

 

[Determinant]

Thank Determinant.

My concern comes from the fact that last year, only Sydney had 5 players with an average of over 100 ppg (however this includes Franklin in the forward line and Malceski in the backs) but the total was only 5.

You have 5 midfielders and a ruck all topping the ton (I know this is speculative, but..).

Can you really see GWS fielding a team where 40% of their score is taken up by 6 players? Based on how teams went last year, that's fairly lop sided for a side looking to make the finals.

For the record, I've currently got D. Smith in the FWD line and Greene in the MIDS, Greene's end to last year was awesome.

Yeah, injuries aside I do think those 6 will make the 100 or come within a couple of points of it.
I can only see the team improving, and those I nominated in particular, I think its pretty much accepted we will have the best midfield in the game at some point very soon, that wont happen with players going backwards.

FWIW I only have Ward, Whitfield and Shaw in my team currently, Whitfield is cheaper than Green and has massively more upside, Ward is dearer but is mr consistent. Shaw I am not sold on, I think his scoring will probably drop this year and I may swap him for Hampson, but def overall atm is a horrible fudge for me SC wise.

 

[Determinant]

It's Smith OR Greene for mine. Limit the amount of speculative risks.

Of the two, Smith for my money, Greene's big games mostly came when we had significant numbers of players out injured, players who would share his specific pile of points.

 

[Jiska]

Of the two, Smith for my money, Greene's big games mostly came when we had significant numbers of players out injured, players who would share his specific pile of points.

Agreed. Problem is I can't see Smith being in the top 6 forwards by years end, or even top 10.

 

[Determinant]

Agreed. Problem is I can't see Smith being in the top 6 forwards by years end, or even top 10.

Given the availability of dominant M/F this year you could be right, I have loaded my fwd line with rookies and my spare ruck
Deledio, Brett(MID) $553,300
Ryder, Patrick(RUC) $543,400
Swan, Dane(MID) $464,500
Hogan, Jesse $130,400
Petracca, Christian(MID) $217,300 / Oscillates between him & M Clarke
Daniel, Caleb $117,300
Markworth, Daniel $123,900
Knight, Riley(MID) $123,900

 

[Jiska]

Given the availability of dominant M/F this year you could be right, I have loaded my fwd line with rookies and my spare ruck
Deledio, Brett(MID) $553,300
Ryder, Patrick(RUC) $543,400
Swan, Dane(MID) $464,500
Hogan, Jesse $130,400
Petracca, Christian(MID) $217,300 / Oscillates between him & M Clarke
Daniel, Caleb $117,300
Markworth, Daniel $123,900
Knight, Riley(MID) $123,900

If you were to pick your Round 23 forward line now, I dare say you'd have 6 M/F players (Bartel a possible exception).

Oh Ryder. Pick him up at 480k later.

 

[CaptainChardonnay]

If you were to pick your Round 23 forward line now, I dare say you'd have 6 M/F players (Bartel a possible exception).

Oh Ryder. Pick him up at 480k later.

Do you think he'll be that much?

 

[Jiska]

Do you think he'll be that much?

Depends how long he's willing to wait

 

[Determinant]

Do you think he'll be that much?

I'm currently happy against the flow on Ryder, I don't see arguments for a large drop in output being any more compelling than not dropping much if at all..

 

[Jiska]

I'm currently happy against the flow on Ryder, I don't see arguments for a large drop in output being any more compelling than not dropping much if at all..

Bookmarked.

 

[MightyMark]

Of the two, Smith for my money, Greene's big games mostly came when we had significant numbers of players out injured, players who would share his specific pile of points.

Whitfield and Coniglio the notable outs during Greenes run iirc

 

[Determinant]

Whitfield and Coniglio the notable outs during Greenes run iirc

Pretty much, those two plus Scully left a lot of points lying around and Toby loves the ball in his hands

 

[SnappyHappy]

Pretty much, those two plus Scully left a lot of points lying around and Toby loves the ball in his hands

Don't need to worry about Scully taking too many points. I still like Greene, his game suits SC and I think he'll go past Treloar this year.

 

[Determinant]

Don't need to worry about Scully taking too many points. I still like Greene, his game suits SC and I think he'll go past Treloar this year.

No way in hell, not in SC, AFL fantasy possibly, but he will be much more inside next year than he was towards the end of last year..
Scully avg 79 last year, same as Whitfield and 5 less than Coniglio. I mentioned him specifically because 79+79+84 > 79+84, thus more free points for Greene. In that time fringe players were given game time, guys like Wilson, Golds & Plowman.

 

[cdcanman]

Love the easy questions

Preface everything below with this is educated opinion only, I am looking towards the preseason to finalise my own team in general and the players from teams like GWS, Dogs, Saints and Demons who could field very different SC relevant teams in 2015.

On average last year GWS scored 1602 of 3300 ppg, given that 1650 is 50% there isn't much room for growth unless we start to dominate, that's unlikely in 2015 so assume a team growth of 50 to 75 points max. For ref Melb avg 1556, GC 1588, and even Hawthorn only 1730. so large movement is unlikely.
Griffen's 98 odd from last year wont be added, someone has to come out, assume 70 points, so for Griffen to avg 98 the rest of the entire team can only improve by 40 odd points, over the full year.

Injuries allowing each week we will field Ward, Griffen, Treloar, Greene, Whitfield, Kelly, Shiel, Smith, Mumford, Shaw, WHE, Coniglio, Scully, Haynes, Hampton and Tomlinson. Those are the players I expect to see on our SC leaderboard week to week.
By my current estimates, which were not entirely accurate for the team last year that group will gain just over 100 points, so they will be taking points from elsewhere.

Player Price Gms14 GmsTot Ave 2014 Est 2015 Variance

Shane Mumford $ 613,700.00 17 117 114.2 115.0 0.8
Callan Ward $ 606,000.00 20 121 112.8 110.0 - 2.8
Adam Treloar $ 577,800.00 20 58 107.5 115.0 7.5
Toby Greene $ 553,300.00 15 53 102.9 105.0 2.1
Ryan Griffen $ 530,700.00 19 202 98.7 100.0 1.3
Dylan Shiel $ 509,400.00 17 50 94.8 100.0 5.2
Lachie Whitfield $ 426,600.00 11 30 79.4 95.0 15.6
Devon Smith $ 490,200.00 21 59 91.2 95.0 3.8
Stephen Coniglio $ 448,800.00 14 44 83.5 90.0 6.5
Josh Kelly $ 365,800.00 18 18 68.1 85.0 16.9
Heath Shaw $ 497,800.00 18 191 92.6 85.0 - 7.6
Tom Scully $ 425,000.00 15 86 79.1 85.0 5.9
Curtly Hampton $ 402,600.00 11 46 74.9 85.0 10.1
Nick Haynes $ 383,600.00 8 27 71.4 80.0 8.6
Adam Tomlinson $ 371,700.00 19 45 69.2 80.0 10.8
Will Hoskin-Elliott $ 360,900.00 20 39 67.2 80.0 12.9

Did you leave Cameron out on purpose?
Trying to keep him quiet or don't you rate him?
Perhaps just an oversight

 

[MightyMark]

Did you leave Cameron out on purpose?
Trying to keep him quiet or don't you rate him?
Perhaps just an oversight

Even in his AA year he only averaged 72, so will need to make a big improvement this year to push into the top of GWS scoring

 

[TheOz]

Thank Determinant.

My concern comes from the fact that last year, only Sydney had 5 players with an average of over 100 ppg (however this includes Franklin in the forward line and Malceski in the backs) but the total was only 5.

In case you wanted to know:

Brisbane: 4
Gold Coast: 3
Collingwood: 3
Freo: 4
Adelaide: 3
GWS: 4
West Coast: 1
Sydney: 5
Port: 3
Dogs: 2
Hawthorn: 1
North: 3
Melbourne: 1
Essendon: 4
Carlton: 2
Richmond: 2
Saints: 1
Geelong: 4

You have 5 midfielders and a ruck all topping the ton (I know this is speculative, but..).

Can you really see GWS fielding a team where 40% of their score is taken up by 6 players? Based on how teams went last year, that's fairly lop sided for a side looking to make the finals.

For the record, I've currently got D. Smith in the FWD line and Greene in the MIDS, Greene's end to last year was awesome.

If you look at Greene's emergence at season's end, there did seem to be a fair correlation between his upsurge in points scoring and Coniglio missing games, when the two played together they seemed to share the points much more evenly. Only Ward didn't take a points hit based on a full compliment of GWS midfielders playing.