2015 SC / Player Watch..

[rocker_oz33]

Geez Jack Steven will be cheap next year.Fair few to choose from for starting M5.
Steven v Swallow v B.Crouch v Whitfeild v Griffen v Scooter etc.

 

[toxic]

Geez Jack Steven will be cheap next year.Fair few to choose from for starting M5.
Steven v Swallow v B.Crouch v Whitfeild v Griffen v Scooter etc.

Or just choose them all

 

[Hoges64]

Or just choose them all

Has this year been an anomaly in regard to not a lot of good rookie DEF's & FWD's coming through? Or is this the usual thing and the best SC strategy is to stack the living shit out of your FWD and DEF line's as the MID rookies are much easier to upgrade to Premo's?

 

[toxic]

Has this year been an anomaly in regard to not a lot of good rookie DEF's & FWD's coming through? Or is this the usual thing and the best SC strategy is to stack the living shit out of your FWD and DEF line's as the MID rookies are much easier to upgrade to Premo's?

Many different strategies
Def rooks looked thin this season

Need to find a balance

Fwiw my 2015 plan is one prem def and all def rookies.

Defence just SUX

 

[rocker_oz33]

Has this year been an anomaly in regard to not a lot of good rookie DEF's & FWD's coming through? Or is this the usual thing and the best SC strategy is to stack the living shit out of your FWD and DEF line's as the MID rookies are much easier to upgrade to Premo's?

Depends if your going for wins Or Over all if over all you likley to be chasing tail.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Many different strategies
Def rooks looked thin this season

Need to find a balance

Fwiw my 2015 plan is one prem def and all def rookies.

Defence just SUX

There will be some cheap def next season if you go cheap down back need to nail the forward line and have some of the best mids going.

 

[Broar]

Has this year been an anomaly in regard to not a lot of good rookie DEF's & FWD's coming through? Or is this the usual thing and the best SC strategy is to stack the living shit out of your FWD and DEF line's as the MID rookies are much easier to upgrade to Premo's?

Only started with 3 premo mids (One of those was Beams) Made plenty of cash, missed out on Langford & KK though. However the big problem I had was having so many injuries in my DEF & FWD's at the start that put me on the back foot.I think next season I'll stack the mids with premiums & pick up DEF & FWD's on the cheap.

 

[Hoges64]

Putting together a plan working off this year. Seems to me an interesting plan would be to do the following, as the MIDs are the easiest way to get cheap rookies:

The current top 6 defenders average: $506,666 per player X6 = $3.04m plus two $124,000 rookies = ~$3.3m (4 of these average over 100)
The current top 6 forwards average: $527,500 per player X6 = $3.165m plus two $124,000 rookies = ~$3.42 (6 of these average over 100)
The top 2 rucks average: $586,550 per player (blown out by Sauces $650k current price) X2 = $1.17m plus 2 $124,000 rookies = ~$1.42m (Both these average over 100)

That equals $8.14 million. Leaving $1.86m for your midfield. Gaz at $650k for Captaincy leaves $1.2m. Meaning $133,000 per player for the other 9 midfield spots which from this years field we all pretty much knew that Tyson, Polec, Aish, Langdon and McDonald would be good. Money could've been saved on blokes like Sandilands and Higgins, to use on blokes like Beams and Macrae that were absolute steals in midfield.

This way of the 15 premos you've already picked at least 10 of them should be set and forget. Then it's just a matter of downgrade / upgrade your rookies.

Now I realise that this is all hindsight / 20/20, and that you're not going to be able to pick who the top 6 are but has anyone had that many players in their side that have really stunk it up that bad that this sort of plan wouldn't work?

I had a shit initial side but the only players that REALLY KILLED me were Griffen, Cox, Cooney and R. Murphy. The rest have been fine for what I paid for them.

To me that's a side that should be able to score pretty decently from the start and be fairly easy to upgrade. Maybe I'm looking at this wrong though...

 

[toxic]

Nathan Bock - remember him...could be priced around $60,000 after multiple injury discounts

 

[Krujan]

Many different strategies
Def rooks looked thin this season

Need to find a balance

Fwiw my 2015 plan is one prem def and all def rookies.

Defence just SUX

If you started this season with Malceski(498k) B Smith(407k) Swallow(375k) Suckling (314k) Jeansch(295k) Langdon (117k) Litherland (117k) Gardinder 117k) you'd be laughing.

 

[toxic]

If you started this season with Malceski(498k) B Smith(407k) Swallow(375k) Suckling (314k) Jeansch(295k) Langdon (117k) Litherland (117k) Gardinder 117k) you'd be laughing.

Agreed!!!!!!!!!!!

at least i had one of them!

 

[Chaisa]

Will be interesting to see how much Ablett is.

My estimate is $737,400.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Has this year been an anomaly in regard to not a lot of good rookie DEF's & FWD's coming through? Or is this the usual thing and the best SC strategy is to stack the living shit out of your FWD and DEF line's as the MID rookies are much easier to upgrade to Premo's?

Note also that this is only the second year of a 6/8/2/6 split.

Back in the days of 7/6/2/7 you had to really search for value in the forwards and backs.

 

[Hoges64]

Note also that this is only the second year of a 6/8/2/6 split.

Back in the days of 7/6/2/7 you had to really search for value in the forwards and backs.

7/6/2/7? with 2 bench as well? Wow. That would've been difficult. Were DPP as prevalent?

 

[Chaisa]

Nowhere else to really post this.

Brad Crouch should get the injury discount I think. Locked in my midfield.

Not necessarily, he's played 5 games so far and from memory if you play more than 10 games you don't get a discount. Looks an utter beast though and his game should be SC friendly.

Harley Bennell if Fwd/Mid. Might get him if just Mid anyway

Yes please. IMO he's ready to break out massively.

Big Kreuzer will be the Sandi of 2014 I should think.

A lot of cheap rucks for next season. Not just Kreuzer but also Leuenberger, Naitanui and Goldstein would be nice and cheap. Thinking I'll go dirt cheap with the rucks and defenders for next season.

will be interesting to see who gets dual position status.

Selwood and Zaharakis would be near locks for me if they get Mid/Fwd, and i'd be looking very hard at Bontempelli if he gets it as well.

as far as rookies go, Petracca and Brayshaw are locks from day 1 if they land in the right situation.

Alec Waterman looks handy for what will likely be 125k ish

What evidence is there that Selwood will be a Mid/Fwd? Not convinced that Zaha is a lock even if he is DPP, I think the likes of Jack, Gray, Parker, Bennell, Martin, etc. look better. Really liking Bonts for next season though, he's improving rapidly and could go close to elite status by this time next season.

Worth remembering with Petracca and Brayshaw that they'll have quite a large premium for next season due to being very high draft picks. I like Petracca as he'll also be DPP, but there are cheaper options than Brayshaw that can do a similar job, IMO.

Waterman will probably be priced at $117,300. Lock if named R1.

Macrae - but he needs to slow down now and play a few spud games, otherwise too expensive

As it is I think there's too many better options in the midfield. I do rate him really highly though.

If Watson doesn't play another game this year could be sub 450k
Kreuzer and Crouch looking like locks
Also don't mind Andrew Walker as has been much below his standards this year and confirmed out for the season

Can't see Watson getting a significant discount it at all, will probably still be ~600k.

Walker? Well I suppose there's not many good defensive options, but has he really been elite at SC, his 2013 notwithstanding?

B. Jack as a high-priced rookie, as long as he keeps starting as sub or doesn't get games. Yet to see that 150+ pre-season score transfer to the season proper.

I like B. Jack, but I don't see that much evidence that his JS will improve significantly enough to make him worthwhile, I'm afraid.

 

[Chaisa]

Daniel Rich - not sure what price he'd start at.

400k+ - probably not
<400k - mmmm, interested depending on his preseason

My estimates have him at $393,200. Although given he'll get a fairly decent discount it's a bit of a lottery. A big pre-season and he's a lock. Might be better, cheaper options though.

Ben Reid..

Locked in

Will be approximately $304,800. Will probably be DPP which is good. Not sold on his scoring potential though - he'd probably need to go close to the premium category to make it worthwhile, and I don't like his player type for SC.

Ryan Griffen would be sub-500k based on his current ave of 88.

(Murph & Beams were priced at ~498k, based on 92 pts)

Hopefully he could get over his back complaint and have an un-interrupted preseason.

If he has a good pre-season? Yes please. Both Murphy and Beams have worked very well for me as discounted premos.

I don't care if Luke Parker loses DPP, he will be locked in the guts for me. Outstanding player.

Don't see why he wouldn't be a Fwd option next season, he still plays a lot of footy as a high half-forward.

Guthrie has shown steady improvement since he came into the league and I can't see why it won't continue. If he's a Defender in 2015 he'll be top 8-10. Would love it if he was a D/M.

Doubt he will still be a defender, I'm afraid.

Swan apparently been carrying injuries all year. Will be a mid-pricer next year if he doesn't improve on his current 89 ppg average.

Definitely a HUGE risk. He looks kinda cooked to me, but you can't deny his scoring potential. Lock him in if he has a strong pre-season.

Scharenberg and Freeman will be extremely cheap next year.

Yes please. Both (as well as Hogan) will probably be $123,900. Lock them in if they're named R1.

 

[Chaisa]

Jon Griffin could be an interesting one if either Sandilands or Clarke gets injured and he's fit. (averaged 101 in 2011 and 91 in 2012)
Kreuzer and Leuey could both be the new Sandilands
Walters, Ben Reid if cheap enough should be worth considering
Matt Crouch is a lock as he will be a cheap premium and should average 105+
If Daniel Menzel finally gets on the track will be rookie priced
Jesse Hogan, Scharanberg and Nathan Freeman will all be cheaper rookies than they are now
Alex Johnson will be rookie priced
Beau Waters (if he decides to play on and gets fit for once) will be under 300k
Brandon Jack will be an expensive rookie although has potential for good scoring if he gets full games (pumped out a 160 in the NAB cup)

Food for thought

Griffin? Won't have the JS really required IMO. Probably worth looking at if he moves clubs though. I still prefer Kreuzer, Leuenberger, Goldstein and Naitanui though.
Walters will probably be around $300k. Looks juicy.
Menzel? Really ****ing risky. Ditto Johnson. Risk them at your own peril.
Waters estimate is $281,500. That's really good value, particularly given the lack of defensive options. Lock if he can get back on the park.

Nathan Bock - remember him...could be priced around $60,000 after multiple injury discounts

Heh

Think his career is probably over, time to move on.

 

[Chaisa]

Who's everyone's bet for the 2nd year breakout in SC?

It happened to Bennell, it happened to Wingard, it happened to Macrae.

My money's on Billings fwiw.

 

[Super Hans]

Who's everyone's bet for the 2nd year breakout in SC?

It happened to Bennell, it happened to Wingard, it happened to Macrae.

My money's on Billings fwiw.

Bontempelli

 

[Feerits Elf]

7/6/2/7? with 2 bench as well? Wow. That would've been difficult. Were DPP as prevalent?

Yep - Sidebottom, ROK and Dangerfield were the three that smashed it for me in the forwards.

If I understand your plan correctly, it doesn't quite work because:

1. You are basing it on the top players in each position as at Round 17. There are still six rounds to go (just under a quarter of the season).
2. Starting prices aren't based on a player's value at the end of the previous season, they're based on their previous season's average (generally avg x 5.36). A player who represents good value now will be expensive again next year (e.g. Dangerfield currently priced at $505.8K (~94ppg) but if he maintains his average will be priced at $577.3K (107.7ppg).
3. You aren't accounting for drops in form. A player starting at more than $600K needs to keep averaging a metric farkload to keep from depreciating. All it takes is one sub-100 game and they're on that slippery slope.
4. You aren't accounting for injury discounts. Sandilands and Beams weren't in the top 6 in their positions in 2013 but you would have been mad to start without them in 2014 as they represented incredible value.

Rather than stacking your side with "safe" premos you're better off picking a few super-premos, a few mid-pricers (returning from injury, fallen premos, potential breakout players) and the best rookies and going from there.

If you'd applied your plan to 2014 you would have started with Cotchin, Griffen, Swan, Cox and Heath Shaw ...

 

[Chaisa]

Bontempelli

Fair call. Although in fairness if he is to be considered a "breakout player" the way he's going he'd have to close to elite status lol.

 

[Krujan]

Who's everyone's bet for the 2nd year breakout in SC?

It happened to Bennell, it happened to Wingard, it happened to Macrae.

My money's on Billings fwiw.

Bonti or Dunstan for mine.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Don't see why he wouldn't be a Fwd option next season, he still plays a lot of footy as a high half-forward.

For strategy purposes I reckon he will be made MID only.

 

[Chaisa]

For strategy purposes I reckon he will be made MID only.

It didn't stop them making McVeigh, Mitchell and Dangerfield DPP. Can't really remember times where they've made someone MID only to stop everyone from picking them.

4 others worth considering:

* Jarrad Redden. Port ruckman. Was apparently rated higher than Lobbe before his knee problems. Should be bargain priced. Ideal R3 if named R1. Risk factor is the future of Scott Lycett.
* Kyle Martin. Collingwood midfielder. Seems to absolutely carve up the VFL. Hopefully he can find a new club, or alternatively Collingwood find his form too good to ignore. Did not look out of his depth in his limited AFL appearances. Likely to be priced around the Polec/Tyson area.
* Jed Anderson. Hawthorn midfielder. Would be best 22 for them if it wasn't for his injury problems. Highly rated, won a Rising Star nomination in his first few games. Will be priced at approximately $198,600.
* Tom Mitchell. Imagine he'd still be DPP. Averaged around 90 in his first season. Too good to be rotting in seconds, think he's in our best 22 when fully fit. Price will be around $328k.

 

[Feerits Elf]

It didn't stop them making McVeigh, Mitchell and Dangerfield DPP. Can't really remember times where they've made someone MID only to stop everyone from picking them.

In 2014 the following (among others) lost DPP and became mids only:

Christensen
Daisy
Gibbs
Goddard
Hartlett
Heppell
Lewis
Rockliff
SJ

Meanwhile the following mids (among others) gained DPP:

Caddy
Dangerfield
Hodge
Howlett
Hunter
McVeigh
S Mitchell
T Mitchell
Parker
D Swallow
Wingard

On what basis do you say Parker will retain M/F DPP? Personally I reckon he'll follow Dangerfield, Beams, Sidebottom, O'Keefe, Deledio, Carrazzo, Gibbs, Goddard, Rocky, SJ etc. in being restricted to the mids.