Or maybe the bloke in the first round is just generally more talented and therefore appears a lot safer
Gaff over Polec has worked well
I'd argue Sheppard over Jetta would be in our favour this year at least
Duggan over Weller/lever/laverde seems too early to call
About the only one that there is an argument is the downgrade of effectively aish to get sheed and karpany
Yeah it's not so much about our first picks being safe but more a tendency for us to use our second picks on our riskier choices. Judd and Naitanui would never have slid past pick 5, so we are talking about a hypothetical reach of two or three spots. In hindsight both players could have gone #1, so yeah.
Obviously I'm not claiming that it's a hard and fast rule that will apply every single year, but it is interesting.
Weedon and Karpany were both high risk insofar as they didn't have an obvious role at AFL level - neither were natural forwards but nor were they obvious midfielders, so their success at AFL level was always going to be dependent on a lot going right development-wise. This has to be considered in light of the fact we have consistently passed up opportunities to get small forwards (Walters, Cameron, et al) in the later rounds and rookie drafts. We clearly didn't take Weedon/Karpany so they could play as small forwards.
Notte was touted as potentially taken in the late teens, but a lot had to go right for him to make it at AFL level. Swift had spent two years out of the game and was again high risk, high reward.
Like Weedon/Karps, Lamb strikes me as someone who we don't have a clear vision for - just a set of abilities that will result in a very good player if everything fits into place.
I don't think it's a bad thing - but I would rather we spread our risk around all of our picks (or save it for rookie picks) and use our second rounders on midfielders - we could have had Duncan, Blakely and Jansen instead of Weedon, Lamb and Karpany.