2015 Trade/FA Discussion (cont. in Pt.2)

[theteamtobeat]

Need a KPD surely..... I don't know if our expectations of Andrews is way overs it not.

Sydney traded pick 65 for Michael Talia. Could of been a handy depth player.

 

[fitzbane Lions]

I'd agree, I love Andrews very much but still think we need that nullifying KPD to take gorillas and whilst with his frame he might develop into that monster size it really doesn't take advantage of his skill set.

Would have loved Ashbury or taila.... lots of ups and both cheap.

 

[pulpdriver]

Would have loved Ashbury or taila.... lots of ups and both cheap.

Talia's bargain basement price had to be due to his blabbing and a definitive preference to go to Swans. Astbury would have been a great fit but the guy would probably always be injured. If the Lions didn't feel the same way we probably would have been more aggressive in reaching a deal with the Tigers.

 

[theteamtobeat]

Would have loved Ashbury or taila.... lots of ups and both cheap.

Astbury comes out of contract in 12 months time.

It's interesting that Allison height is currently 193cm. If Allison grows another 2 to 4 cm, would he be seen as a KPD. Hipwood was a midfielder when he was 16. Now being 202cm, he's a KPD.

 

[pulpdriver]

Astbury comes out of contract in 12 months time.

It's interesting that Allison height is currently 193cm. If Allison grows another 2 to 4 cm, would he be seem as a KPD. Hipwood was a midfielder when he was 16. Now being 202cm, he's a KPD.

Not really sure what you're getting at.

 

[SizeMatters]

I don't see Andrews or Hipwood as CHBs unless they can get to the 95kg mark at least. Even though they are tall they are more suited as the 3rd defender who plays off the resting ruck. Hopefully one of them can develop their rucking ability and play a Mitch Clark like role for us when he was in his prime.

 

[Sanchez365]

Absolutely correct.
Been reading all the worried posts and finally had to say something. Schwab and team knew exactly what they were doing.

Using Callum Twomey's Phantom Draft Form Guide (as a guide) we will have picks 33/34/35/36/37 by the time we need to bid on academy kids. Simple math.

1. Callum Mills goes pick 3 = 2234 points less 25% discount leaves 1675. Sydney will use picks 33/36/37 which equals 1548 points. All picks to end of draft and deficit of 127 points, we now take this off pick 44 which leaves a credit of 235 points. Pick 44 now becomes pick 53. We move our picks 38-42 up 3 places.

2.Jacob Hopper goes 5 = 1878 points less 25% discount leaves 1408. GWS will use pick 10 which equals 1395 points. Pick 10 goes to end of draft and deficit of 13 points, we now take this off pick 34 which leaves a credit of 529 points. Pick 34 now becomes pick 35. We move our picks 38-42 up 1 more place.

3.Matthew Kennedy goes 6 = 1751 points less 25% discount leaves 1313. GWS will use picks 35/43/53 which equals 1133 points. Picks 35/43/53 go to end of draft and leaves a deficit of 180 points, we now take this off pick 55 leaves a credit of 27 points, pick 55 becomes pick 72. We move our picks 38-42 up 1 more place.

As you can see we will pick up 5 places in this scenario.

We will use picks 33/34/35/36 = 2129 if boys go picks 8 and 10 this is 2946 less 25% = 2209 leaves a deficit of 80 points, we now take this off pick 37 which goes to back of the draft leaving us a credit of 403 points, pick 37 becomes 42. We still have this up our sleeve.

If boys go 10 and 12 as per the phantom draft guide = 1997 points we use 33/34/35 which is 1566 points leaving 431 points deficit, we take this off pick 36 leaves 71 points credit, pick 36 now becomes pick 67 and we still have pick 37.

Giddyup.

Actually that's no quite correct. My understanding is that the pick of the team that gets the player, eg Sydney, the pick they match with gets moved to that position in the draft and they get allocated a new pick at the end of the draft. It is only multiple picks where the second one slides last ours that we could see an increase in our picks.

Unless this is what you meant and I just read it wrong.

 

[pulpdriver]

I don't see Andrews or Hipwood as CHBs unless they can get to the 95kg mark at least. Even though they are tall they are more suited as the 3rd defender who plays off the resting ruck. Hopefully one of them can develop their rucking ability and play a Mitch Clark like role for us when he was in his prime.

Andrews was measured at 92kg last year. With a decent program he'll easily pass 97 kegs this year. I think the the guy could hit a lean 120+ kg with his frame. Has monster potential, just don't know how we intend to use him down the line.

 

[theteamtobeat]

Not really sure what you're getting at.

If Allison has a growth spurt like Hipwood did, he might end up being a key position prospect. Hipwood played as a tall wingmen in the under 16's championships.

I'm saying we should develop this kids first and target a quality key position defender, if they come available on the market. Maybe it's not the best idea to get a mature Key defender for the sake of needing a mature key defender. I remember when the Saints traded in Luke Delaney because they needed a mature key defender. Turned out to be a flop. Back the kids in and give them game time. I'm sure Merrett can play for another 2-4 years. By that time Clarke, Andrews, Hipwood, Gardiner and McStay will have 50-100 games of experience.

 

[spotthedog1]

How sad. In the AFL's eye the Lions don't even exist. Readers of AFL.com got to choose between 10 other teams who they thought did best at the trade table, the Lions didn't even make the list. That is why the Lions hang by the skin of their teeth financially, the AFL simply don't care.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-22/ten-things-we-learned

They only included the teams considered 'winners'. We lost Redden, Aish and Leuey and picked up a bunch of B/C graders. We did as well as we could under the circumstances, but I certainly wouldn't have called us winners, even with the setup for the academy picks. If the question is "who was the biggest winner", I'd much rather have Geelong's trades than ours.

Personally, I don't know that we really won a single trade. I thought we lost the Leuey trade (understandably - no one knew the AFL were going to change the rules half way through the game), tied the Redden & Bell trades and perhaps a minor win in the Geelong trade... Maybe... And the Aish trade I reckon we did OK on compensation but came out looking like a complete rabble... I don't think we appeared unreasonable in the trade but we completely failed to control the narrative and came out very uncoordinated.

Not trying to be negative - I reckon the club did as well as possible under the circumstances, but when the question is "who was the biggest winner", I wouldn't have us top-10. I was surprised that North weren't on that list though... They didn't catch much of what they aimed for, but with their ins and outs I still had them solidly in the green.

 

[theteamtobeat]

They only included the teams considered 'winners'. We lost Redden, Aish and Leuey and picked up a bunch of B/C graders. We did as well as we could under the circumstances, but I certainly wouldn't have called us winners, even with the setup for the academy picks. If the question is "who was the biggest winner", I'd much rather have Geelong's trades than ours.

Personally, I don't know that we really won a single trade. I thought we lost the Leuey trade (understandably - no one knew the AFL were going to change the rules half way through the game), tied the Redden & Bell trades and perhaps a minor win in the Geelong trade... Maybe... And the Aish trade I reckon we did OK on compensation but came out looking like a complete rabble... I don't think we appeared unreasonable in the trade but we completely failed to control the narrative and came out very uncoordinated.

Not trying to be negative - I reckon the club did as well as possible under the circumstances, but when the question is "who was the biggest winner", I wouldn't have us top-10. I was surprised that North weren't on that list though... They didn't catch much of what they aimed for, but with their ins and outs I still had them solidly in the green.

I think you pretty much nailed what happened. We should smash it in the draft though.

 

[Lions Lions]

If Allison has a growth spurt like Hipwood did, he might end up being a key position prospect. Hipwood played as a tall wingmen in the under 16's championships.

I'm saying we should develop this kids first and target a quality key position defender, if they come available on the market. Maybe it's not the best idea to get a mature Key defender for the sake of needing a mature key defender. I remember when the Saints traded in Luke Delaney because they needed a mature key defender. Turned out to be a flop. Back the kids in and give them game time. I'm sure Merrett can play for another 2-4 years. By that time Clarke, Andrews, Hipwood, Gardiner and McStay will have 50-100 games of experience.

We desperately need a mature key defender , Michael Hartley from Coburg would be ideal. Solid player ready made for AFL.

 

[dlanod]

I'll give him a cheer at the Canberra games - though I have no clue how I will distinguish Himmelburg and him.

Himmelberg will be in the reserves.

Sydney traded pick 65 for Michael Talia. Could of been a handy depth player.

Sydney traded a 2016 fourth rounder for Talia and pick 65. Just FYI.

 

[T Rick]

If Allison has a growth spurt like Hipwood did, he might end up being a key position prospect. Hipwood played as a tall wingmen in the under 16's championships.

I'm saying we should develop this kids first and target a quality key position defender, if they come available on the market. Maybe it's not the best idea to get a mature Key defender for the sake of needing a mature key defender. I remember when the Saints traded in Luke Delaney because they needed a mature key defender. Turned out to be a flop. Back the kids in and give them game time. I'm sure Merrett can play for another 2-4 years. By that time Clarke, Andrews, Hipwood, Gardiner and McStay will have 50-100 games of experience.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Lets hope we go hard at any KPD available via Free Agency next year.

 

[baaaall!]

Nathan Brown and Cale Hooker are free agents next year. Both unrestricted IIRC.

 

[dlanod]

Given we're largely interested in point values given how the academy works, here's the relative pick values of what we gave up and got in our trades (thanks to bergholt's efforts):

pick 10: James Aish (with estimate of St Kilda's 2016 R2 pick)
pick 17: Jack Redden

pick 28: Ryan Bastinac (with estimate of NM's 2016 R3 pick)
pick 31: Tom Bell
pick 45: Josh Walker+Jarrad Jansen (with estimate of Brisbane's 2016 R3 pick)

 

[Shattock]

Can we please make sure we boo Aish louder than anyone we have before?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Given we're largely interested in point values given how the academy works, here's the relative pick values of what we gave up and got in our trades (thanks to bergholt's efforts):

pick 10: James Aish (with estimate of St Kilda's 2016 R2 pick)
pick 17: Jack Redden

pick 28: Ryan Bastinac (with estimate of NM's 2016 R3 pick)
pick 31: Tom Bell
pick 45: Josh Walker+Jarrad Jansen (with estimate of Brisbane's 2016 R3 pick)

Not sure about the pick 10 for Aish.

 

[dlanod]

Not sure about the pick 10 for Aish.

Pick 26 (729) + an estimate of St Kilda's 2016 R2 pick at pick 28 (677) = 1406 points.
Pick 10 = 1395 points.

 

[winged1]

We desperately need a mature key defender , Michael Hartley from Coburg would be ideal. Solid player ready made for AFL.

Do we? Merrett missed most of the year, so Clarke who just passed 50 games was the backline general for a good part of the season.

Merrett comes back with Clarke taking no 2, Andrews potentially swing man, Gardiner, Harwood as the running back pocket, Rich, Hanley, Claye Beams soming off half back, Cutler can play third tall or medium. I think the backline looks OK, keep in mind they drafted Beasely (who goes OK) and two other KPD prospects last year. We dont desperately need another KPD as long as we can keep some guys on the park. Backline got raped with injury last year.

 

[Lions Lions]

Do we? Merrett missed most of the year, so Clarke who just passed 50 games was the backline general for a good part of the season.

Merrett comes back with Clarke taking no 2, Andrews potentially swing man, Gardiner, Harwood as the running back pocket, Rich, Hanley, Claye Beams soming off half back, Cutler can play third tall or medium. I think the backline looks OK, keep in mind they drafted Beasely (who goes OK) and two other KPD prospects last year. We dont desperately need another KPD as long as we can keep some guys on the park. Backline got raped with injury last year.

We have 4 key defenders on our list who can really be expected to hold the real big boys at fullback and CHB ... FB Merrett (poor mans Leppitsch) FB Clarke (barely adequate) CHB Andrews (definite star) CHB Hipwood (first year player).... We need another option in particular at Full Back, Merrett nearly done and Clarke is a bit of a sieve. Only mature players available... VFL or SANFL type players... There are a few good ones around who are 22-23 we can look at.

 

[Lions Lions]

Do we? Merrett missed most of the year, so Clarke who just passed 50 games was the backline general for a good part of the season.

Merrett comes back with Clarke taking no 2, Andrews potentially swing man, Gardiner, Harwood as the running back pocket, Rich, Hanley, Claye Beams soming off half back, Cutler can play third tall or medium. I think the backline looks OK, keep in mind they drafted Beasely (who goes OK) and two other KPD prospects last year. We dont desperately need another KPD as long as we can keep some guys on the park. Backline got raped with injury last year.

And Daniel Rich should not play off half back ever again. Daniel is best used in the middle or forward of the ball. Half forward changing with Beamer and Rocky would be perfect.

 

[winged1]

We have 4 key defenders on our list who can really be expected to hold the real big boys at fullback and CHB ... FB Merrett (poor mans Leppitsch) FB Clarke (barely adequate) CHB Andrews (definite star) CHB Hipwood (first year player).... We need another option in particular at Full Back, Merrett nearly done and Clarke is a bit of a sieve. Only mature players available... VFL or SANFL type players... There are a few good ones around who are 22-23 we can look at.

I think you rate Clarke very harshly for a guy who is essentially a third year player. Leppitsch played as a rebounding CHB, he and Merrett are not the same type of player at all. Andrews is really more of a third floater, but could play KPD in time, Hipwood in a perfect world would be allowed to develop physically in the twos next year. You still have Gardiner, Beasely, Watts and McGuiness who are supposed to fill those KPD in time, but they need to put weight on.

The club went hard for Rance, didnt get him. If the club was enamored with Astbury he would of got here. Talia for me would of been a good target but reports say he always wanted Sydney.

I certainly dont see the backline as much of a problem as the forward line or the ability to win contested ball/stop turning it over in the middle.

Rich will rotate through the backline and midfield.

 

[carnthemlions]

I don't see Andrews or Hipwood as CHBs unless they can get to the 95kg mark at least. Even though they are tall they are more suited as the 3rd defender who plays off the resting ruck. Hopefully one of them can develop their rucking ability and play a Mitch Clark like role for us when he was in his prime.

Not sure why people are already writing Andrews off as a 3rd tall/ floating type who will struggle to gain weight. I think he'll end up being a similar player to Cale Hooker (who has no problem taking the opposition's no.1 forward). He held up very well just relying on his ability to read the ball in flight and out position his opponent. Will only get better as he develops the ability to compete strength wise.

We have 4 key defenders on our list who can really be expected to hold the real big boys at fullback and CHB ... FB Merrett (poor mans Leppitsch) FB Clarke (barely adequate) CHB Andrews (definite star) CHB Hipwood (first year player).... We need another option in particular at Full Back, Merrett nearly done and Clarke is a bit of a sieve. Only mature players available... VFL or SANFL type players... There are a few good ones around who are 22-23 we can look at.

It's very easy to make assumptions about our defenders based on what happens when we turn the ball over and get caught out (which is what happens 90% of the time). The style we've been trying to play without the ball also doesn't help when that happens. Look at what happened to West Coast in the gf- they kept turning it over, Hawthorn had numerous free players inside 50 every time. Nothing defenders can do in that situation.