Resource 2016 AFL Draft Order

[Ants]

You would think if we were considering using the Bowes situation as leverage in a deal, or the same with the GWS players, we would be investigating this year even if it wasn't our standard policy.

 

[Lore]

I looked it up for my own purposes a while ago - I re-listened to all Dodoro's interviews and transcribed the relevant bits. I don't know if I missed another interview he did where he might've been more explicit, I know I remember something about list management resources but I couldn't find it. He was pretty cagey right before the draft on draft day but I thought maybe there was something else after the draft where he was a bit more open about it. I also checked the BomberRadio interview he did after the suspensions were handed down but they didn't really talk about it there so I didn't transcribe that one either (I posted some notes about it in the EFC Draft/Trade thread and EFC VFL board general chat if you want to go looking for them).

I nearly posted it here when I saw you talking about it the other night, but then figured you guys were shit-stirring and I didn't feel like getting involved... but anyway.


Road to the 2015 Draft - Episode 20: Adrian Dodoro
29 September 2015 9m23s

Interviewer: What about the bidding process? Because Hopper and Mills are going to be in that range. Not asking you to say you’re going to put your hand up, but how much goes through your mind when you’ve got an early pick and there’s this new bidding process where you have to put up your hand on draft night and say ‘we want him’… but you’ve got this early pick, this is your highest pick in ten years, do you want to, from an image point of view do you actually want to pick someone before, that gets matched, you get your second choice? Do you know what I mean?

Adrian Dodoro: Yeah absolutely, yeah

I: Would you do it in that regard?

AD: Well if you think that the player is an absolute star and you know, he’s a bargain at that pick then obviously you’ve got to do the right thing by your club. You know, it’s new for our industry, it’s exciting for us. It’ll be interesting how it works, it’ll be interesting to see how long the draft actually takes this year.

I: Yeah, it’ll be different won’t it.

AD: It’ll be different, and I think there’s a lot of people that are looking forward to seeing our game evolve in the next few years with future trading and what have you, so. We’ve put a lot of time and effort into learning about what could happen, you know, going forward.

I: Do you think clubs are going to be a bit more reluctant to bid for people when they know exactly what’s on offer? We’ve seen clubs obviously match them when it’s normally been held sort of ahead of trade period or whatever, but do you think being on the night perhaps more likely to pick rather than match, or enter bids?

AD: Yeah that’s interesting, I think. You’re probably right, I think we’ll have a, the psychology will be around what you can control. And what you can control is the live players at your selection. So I think you might find the clubs actually just select and there might be some of those northern market teams that’ll be getting some bargains.

I: Just as usual.

AD: As usual, but look… I won’t be playing games this year, I can assure you of that.

BomberTV: Dodoro’s draft preview
24 November, 2015 1m12s

Interviewer: Has the introduction of the live bidding made this draft harder to prepare for?

AD: Oh, look you do your due diligence, you do your homework, you prepare, and you can only control what you can control. The bidding system does make it interesting, because you want to keep some clubs honest, and not give them a free hit, coz it may effect your picks. But having said that there’s some terrific players that are going to go as academy players, so um, look it’s made it interesting but we’ll certainly have a strategy around bidding tonight.

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/news/2015-11-24/dodoros-draft-preview

 

[adsla69k]

AD isnt going to go watch a NEAFL match with only Bowes in it. But they would keep up to date with him. How many academy players will not be drafted this year. AD might see something in one of them, why rule yourself out.

Who cares anyway we are getting a top 3 player this year to go with pick 5 & 6 from last year!

 

[Lore]

My interpretation of it is that he would bid on an academy player if he was legitimately willing to have them at the club and that they were a good candidate for that pick (i.e. He wouldn't bid overs on Hopper if he though Parish was a bargain with that pick). He's not ruling out academy picks per se, it's just that screwing northern teams and forcing them to pay overs isn't (or wasn't) a priority for him.

His priority is what's best for the Essendon FC, so trying to poach players who will have significant attachments to another club and possibly happen to have family up north with go home factor is a bit silly. And if you put development into a top 10 pick and increase their value then you have to wonder whether that kids preferred club would ever be willing to pay market value for them in a trade (possibly two first rounders). An academy club probably wouldn't see value in that.

But then if the player comes from the Riverina, it's less of a go home thing so maybe you'd have a go for the right guy at the right price? Assuming guys you want aren't already sliders at that pick.

 

[Clems Knee]

Can this be stickied please?

 

[eastfreo75]

My interpretation of it is that he would bid on an academy player if he was legitimately willing to have them at the club and that they were a good candidate for that pick (i.e. He wouldn't bid overs on Hopper if he though Parish was a bargain with that pick). He's not ruling out academy picks per se, it's just that screwing northern teams and forcing them to pay overs isn't (or wasn't) a priority for him.

His priority is what's best for the Essendon FC, so trying to poach players who will have significant attachments to another club and possibly happen to have family up north with go home factor is a bit silly. And if you put development into a top 10 pick and increase their value then you have to wonder whether that kids preferred club would ever be willing to pay market value for them in a trade (possibly two first rounders). An academy club probably wouldn't see value in that.

But then if the player comes from the Riverina, it's less of a go home thing so maybe you'd have a go for the right guy at the right price? Assuming guys you want aren't already sliders at that pick.

I would agree that Essendon would look after Essendon first verses screwing any Northern club.

Say, Essendon bids on Bowes with pick one, then Gold Coast will need to use their next two picks and therefore making Essendon's second and third picks more valuable.

 

[LynchysMob]

AD isnt going to go watch a NEAFL match with only Bowes in it. But they would keep up to date with him. How many academy players will not be drafted this year. AD might see something in one of them, why rule yourself out.

Who cares anyway we are getting a top 3 player this year to go with pick 5 & 6 from last year!

Funny you say that cos I was sitting near Dodoro earlier in the year up here and he was watching Bowes in a NEAFL game. Bowes had 25 touches 4 goals that day and one of the freakish ones he kicked he turned to the recruiter next to him with a grin on his face.

 

[adsla69k]

Funny you say that cos I was sitting near Dodoro earlier in the year up here and he was watching Bowes in a NEAFL game. Bowes had 25 touches 4 goals that day and one of the freakish ones he kicked he turned to the recruiter next to him with a grin on his face.

Well either way Bowes is going 1 in the draft

 

[Lana]

Brisbane's third round pick belongs to Geelong, Traded for Josh Walker and Jarrad Jansen

 

[Lore]

Brisbane's third round pick belongs to Geelong, Traded for Josh Walker and Jarrad Jansen

Thanks for letting me know Fixed, I think. There was an error in some of the formulas that caused that; the same error also might've messed up Brisbane's draft points and such as well. (Possibly something to do with a pick traded from North?)

Any other errors please tag me.

 

[Lore]

I've been looking at updating the draft pick predictor spreadsheet, basically adding duplicates of the worksheets that I already have, but the new ones would be based on the predicted end-of-season ladder from Squiggle (http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/#).

I've spoken to Final Siren and it's almost good to go, but I'm curious if people would prefer it in the same spreadsheet (which would then have about 8 tabs and might get a bit hard to navigate) or in a separate one (which might get confusing because they look the same at face value).

Thoughts?

 

[Ants]

Separate.

 

[Lore]

Spreadsheet now includes tabs for predicted ladder results and draft picks derived from Final Siren's Squiggle predicted ladder. I've also reworked the picks and points tab into one tab, so there's less to click through. As always any comments and suggestions are welcome.

Given that these spreadsheets are now fully automated, it doesn't take really any effort to keep it going throughout the season. As such, I will probably build another spreadsheet to do the same thing for 2017 at some point later this year/over the preseason. Any suggestions on how to further develop it are also welcome.

Separate.

Thanks for the feedback Just to let you know, I've kept them in one spreadsheet for this year. I'll look at separating it into two spreadsheets for next year.

 

[PC Sam]

Great list, keep it updated!

 

[Wild Bill]

Interesting to listen to Lloyds view on Essendons pick 1 - as there is no clear number 1 pick and that you can throw a blanket over 7 players would Essendon trade pick 1 for pick 4 and 10?

Watching Parish and on the weekend Francis I think they may be open to getting another 2 top 10 draft picks.

 

[Lore]

Interesting to listen to Lloyds view on Essendons pick 1 - as there is no clear number 1 pick and that you can throw a blanket over 7 players would Essendon trade pick 1 for pick 4 and 10?

Watching Parish and on the weekend Francis I think they may be open to getting another 2 top 10 draft picks.

I vaguely remember something about exploring the possibility that might have come from the club (or I might've dreamt it up).

Certainly the D/T thread in the Essendon board seems to lean heavily in favour of trading pick 1 though.

 

[coniglio_number1]

But selling pick 1 in a year where there is no clear number 1 would be difficult

 

[Lana]

But selling pick 1 in a year where there is no clear number 1 would be difficult

It would appeal to the teams with high academy bids. To get an early pick ahead of any possible bids

 

[coniglio_number1]

It would appeal to the teams with high academy bids. To get an early pick ahead of any possible bids

Given our list reductions and high number of quality academy prospects I would rule out GWS. GC looks like the best trade partner for pick 1

 

[Lana]

Given our list reductions and high number of quality academy prospects I would rule out GWS. GC looks like the best trade partner for pick 1

I don't those invalidate GWS for this type of deal, in fact they are in a perfect opportunity

List reductions isn't an issue you have 42 players on your primary list, you don't have to reduce your list lower than that until the 2019 season.

Depending on the McCarthy and other assorted (Guys like Tomlinson who have value but aren't getting a lot of game time despite being on your list for a while) trades you'll still be able to enough points to draft any of your academy players that you want to keep. You already have over 5000 points.

It doesn't necessarily have to be pick 1, just ahead of any likely bid for you to get a benefit out of it. If I was GWS I'd target Freemantle's pick 3, they are chasing a bunch of players but don't have a lot to trade with.

I'd offer them something like
McCarthy, pick 7 and pick 17 for pick 3, 39 and 57

Sure it under values McCarthy from a draft points perspective but in the end it gains you a top 3 pick that you wouldn't have had otherwise. When you convert picks into points it doesn't matter how high they are in the draft. From a bid perspective pick 7 is just as picks 33,34 and 35. Which is why it is so beneficial to get a pick ahead of the bid. The bidding allows you to pay for talent with relatively sub par picks.

The above trade leaves you with 3130 points in the bank. Assuming that you won't trade out a single player for more picks or shuffle picks around for more draft points you'd still have enough points to match unlikely sequential bids at picks 4 and 5. Which is highly unlikely.

Looking at the current draft order
1 Essendon
2 Brisbane
3 Freemantle
4 Gold Coast
5 Carlton
6 Richmond
7 GWS

Brisbane and Gold Coast have their own academy players so they'll be doing a similar thing to what I'm proposing and draft the best available non academy listed player. They'd only bid if the prospect is clearly worth it like last year when they bid pick 7 on Hopper who went a lot later then the pre draft expectations (in fact most of the high end academy prospects went later then expected.)

IMO the first real risk of a bid are Carlton and Richmond's picks. It will be more clear what types of bids are likely but I'd suggest that you not likely to have bids higher than at bids like picks 5, 10 and 15 for your top three three academy players.

Which would require 3508 draft points, a deficit of 378 points. Trade Tomlinson (or whoever, I'm just using his name as a place holder it doesn't really matter) for anything higher than pick 43 ( I'm sure you'l get a lot more than that for him) and that's how you get an extra pick at the top of the draft.

If the alternatives at the draft are
1) pick 3, 1st ranked academy prospect, 2nd ranked academy prospect and 3rd ranked academy prospect
or
2) 1st ranked academy prospect, 2nd ranked academy prospect, 3rd ranked academy prospect, 4th ranked academy prospect and a whole lot of wasted draft points

It'd be ridiculous to take the 2nd alternative

 

[Ants]

The interesting one is Brisbane. They already have 6 first and second round picks, which will likely increase if/when O'Meara and Prestia leave. They also have a 3rd and 4th round picks which have value from a points perspective. They only have 3-4 academy prospects, of which two are very highly rated but I don't believe the others are. Unless they're doing a clear out of their list, they need to trade some of those picks out. Either for players, better picks or 2017 picks.

Which leaves several major questions:

• Will Brisbane bid on Bowes? As that would have a huge impact on their top picks, diluting them considerably.
• Do players of sufficient quality for the spare picks GCS have want to go there?
• Will clubs trade 2017 picks? I've heard conflicting things on the quality of next year's draft. The only bit I've heard consensus on is that it seems to have more talls.
• How much of a clean out do they want to do? If there are actually 7-8 guys they want to delist, no rookies to promote, then they can use all of those picks.

Depending on the answers to the above, getting pick #1 or #2 off Brisbane may be of quite some value.

 

[eth-dog]

The interesting one is Brisbane. They already have 6 first and second round picks, which will likely increase if/when O'Meara and Prestia leave. They also have a 3rd and 4th round picks which have value from a points perspective. They only have 3-4 academy prospects, of which two are very highly rated but I don't believe the others are. Unless they're doing a clear out of their list, they need to trade some of those picks out. Either for players, better picks or 2017 picks.

Which leaves several major questions:

• Will Brisbane bid on Bowes? As that would have a huge impact on their top picks, diluting them considerably.
• Do players of sufficient quality for the spare picks GCS have want to go there?
• Will clubs trade 2017 picks? I've heard conflicting things on the quality of next year's draft. The only bit I've heard consensus on is that it seems to have more talls.
• How much of a clean out do they want to do? If there are actually 7-8 guys they want to delist, no rookies to promote, then they can use all of those picks.

Depending on the answers to the above, getting pick #1 or #2 off Brisbane may be of quite some value.

You talking about Gold Coast or Brisbane?

 

[dlanod]

You talking about Gold Coast or Brisbane?

Indeed, now we see the Melbourne-centric bias inherent in the system! Come and see the Melbourne-centric bias inherent in the system! Help, help, we're being repressed!

 

[Ants]

Sorry Brisbane.

I meant GCS of course.

 

[adsla69k]

GWS wants to trade with Essendon for pick 1. According to Foxsports. GC said they are not interested lol.