Go look at the last 10+ players picked at pick 12. Then think about how many of them have had/will have, a better career in it's totality than LeCras.
So HOW are you guaranteeing someone having a career like Lecras at our pick?! It's a wholly redundant statement - why not use Dane Swan as an example? Or say SPP is compared to Dustin Martin, isn't that better!
You're implying that Hayward is going to have a career like Lecras! He could have a career like Ben McKinley... what then?! Whoops... no such guarantees exist, so you play the percentages.
See
Knightmare article on draft history.
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis
We'll really be picking at 14, not 12. Even then, our history at that pick ain't great:
History of Pick 14:
14 Eric Hipwood Brisbane Lions Aspley 2015
14 Shannon Watt North Melbourne North Ballarat U18 1997
14 Jack Grimes Melbourne Northern U18 2007
14 Luke Penny Western Bulldogs Oakleigh U18 1998
14 Daniel Bell Melbourne Glenelg 2002
14 Lewis Jetta Sydney Swans Swan Districts 2009
14 Travis Gaspar West Coast South Fremantle 1999
14 Brett O'Farrell Sydney Swans Prahran U18 1996
14
Adam Simpson North Melbourne Northern U18 1993
14 James Sellar Adelaide Glenelg 2006
14 Fabian Francis Brisbane Bears Southern District 1991
14 Cam McCarthy Greater Western Sydney South Fremantle 2013
14 Scott Adams Brisbane Bears Clarence 1986
14 Fergus Watts Adelaide Sandringham U18 2003
14 Angus Monfries Essendon Sturt 2004
14 Mick Martin Western Bulldogs Hobart 1994
14 Nick Holland Hawthorn North Adelaide 1992
14 Luke Trew West Coast Murray U18 1995
14 Brodie Smith Adelaide Woodville-West Torrens 2010
14 Daniel Harris North Melbourne Bendigo U18 2000
14 Wayne Peters Richmond Morwell 1987
14 Grant Birchall Hawthorn Devonport 2005
14 Ben Allan Hawthorn Claremont 1989
14 Aidan Corr Greater Western Sydney Northern U18 2012
14 Jake Lever Adelaide Calder U18 2014
14 Ashley Watson North Melbourne Bendigo U18 2001
14 Andrew Hamer Collingwood Lakes Entrance 1990
14 Devon Smith Greater Western Sydney Geelong U18 2011
14 Steven Byers Hawthorn New Norfolk 1988
14 Ayce Cordy Western Bulldogs Geelong U18 2008