I think there is some good value in todays games. Melbourne has been a bit of a bunny team for Hawthorn in the past losing by 105 points last year. Hawks have good matchups for Watts and Hogan (Frawley) and there is potential for forwards like Rioli, Breust and Gunston to be dominant. While Melbourne have feasted on weak teams I can't see them winning especially with Viney their best player out. Think it will be close and Hawks blow it out in the last half (like they have done in the last 3 of 4) so will be looking at an in-play bet at that time. Hawks by 34.
I have some good success beating against weak teams (Brisbane road performances WC -64, Geel -69, WB -53, Port -77, Melb -60) so on Carlton for the win and line. Carlton have been consistently solid recently and Brisbane has been atrocious on the road. Carlton by 36.
I think I will avoid the Coll / Port game with injuries to Collingwood a concern. Their midfield has been fantastic, but they lose Adams and Fasolo is their key goal kicker. It's hard to get a read on Port, but if they didn't butcher the last 5 minutes vs Carlton they would have been 4 and 1 in their previous 5 games.
Sydney traditionally smash GC (never lost by less than 35), but GC over the last 2 weeks have got most of their injured players back and the game is likely to be played in atrocious conditions so i'm on Sydney by 1-39. I don't think GC will be as poor as bookies are predicting at their home ground.
For a half Freo's pressure was fantastic last week and if they match that they should beat Essendon comfortably. Mundy is a big in for Freo and I think Kelly will be missed badly. Interstate Ess has lost to GC -61, Port -61 and Syd -81 so their road record is far more dismal than playing in Melbourne. It should be a massive game for Freo and expect them to win by 24.
GWS I thought were well beaten by Adelaide underlying concerns they don't travel that well and it doesn't get more difficult than playing Geelong at Skilled after 2 very average performances. I think GWS might struggle travelling back to back against two top teams. Geelong should win by 3 goals, but I will be watching with interest to see how Geelong perform if Selwood struggles with a tag or underperforms.
2u Carlton H2H, 1u Carlton -17.5, 1u Carlton -23.5, 1u Geelong -9.5, 1u Sydney 1-39, 1u WB H2H, 0.5u on GC over 1.5 behinds 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters.
Damn a Jenkins poster away from 4 from 4 on totals (thumbs up Chrisdon). Should get 4 multis home all H2H, line bets, Syd 1-39, Hawks in the 4th and 2 of 3 tailed bets of GC over 1.5 behinds. Nailed a few in-play bets on the Bet365 promo so overall a fantasic round. Should have tailed a few more bets, looks like many on here were right on the money.