2016 AFL - Round 20

[ricardogp]

Has anyone been close in sportsbet's million dollar tipping? What's the strategy heading into sunday? I'm 6/6 atm, have Carlton, Geelong and West Coast by 26. Chance?

That comp is always tough because there are so many people in it. There have been a couple of of upsets (counting Richmond), so that might have thinned the pool out. In my experience you have to nail margin though and there isn't really a strategy for that that I have thought of which can cover that (I have picked the card with them a few times but missed the margin).

Good luck though, hopefully if you get the margin then Richmond / Melbourne (and maybe Carlton) will bring the pool down to under 5 people.

 

[chrisdon16]

Anyone like the Geelong's line tomorrow or Geelong's total? Much like syd, gws & adel - geelong should also want to gain more % and try to get 3rd/4th ladder spot. If they really want % they ideally wont slack off in the last 10minutes of the game & bury Essendon, thats just my thoughts.

Don't mind it, but Essendon restricted Geelong to 72 earlier in the year. But they did kick 9.18, so probably leaning towards bad kicking compared to Essendon's defence. Take 8 behinds and turn them into goals and you have 17.10.112, big difference. But not confident enough that Geelong will score over 125

 

[X_box_X]

Weller at $51 for most goals with Topsport.

He's been a good form lately. If he has his kicking boot on, he's gonna score five straight goals shortly. He's had a couple of games this year where he has had five scoring shots. Definitely a chance and good value IMO.

 

[TheScream]

Love fremantle today at the plus. The eagles played so bad last week, how can anyone just expect them to flick a switch and cover 32.5? Fremantle got belted by the swans but they're a much better side than west coast, and fremantle actually played alright in the two games before that (against gold coast and geelong). With sandilands and ballantyne back, think this game should be atleast close...

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I am with you Scream, and everything you posted (except I think WCE is a better team at this point)

I have taken a multi of Freo +33 and Dons +72. Geelong are staying afloat, they are not setting the world on fire lately.

I do have some other multis on the Saints at -9.5. They are just killing it the last couple of weeks.

 

[mookieb]

Love fremantle today at the plus. The eagles played so bad last week, how can anyone just expect them to flick a switch and cover 32.5? Fremantle got belted by the swans but they're a much better side than west coast, and fremantle actually played alright in the two games before that (against gold coast and geelong). With sandilands and ballantyne back, think this game should be atleast close...

I was at the game last week (a friend barracks for Swans) and Freo were woeful. They likely will struggle to kick goals and their skills seem really poor so a bit of rain and wind will equal turnovers. Dawson out so perhaps Kennedy has a day out.

I think WC form is a bit of a Nic Nat issue. He's back as is Yeo and a few others with a bit of experience. Over the season they have been dominant at home. I think the margin is about right, but again I wouldn't be surprised if the game got blown out. Let's face it Freo have only won 3 games - two of those wins are against basket cases Bris and Ess and a solid win over Port.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I like priddis 26.5 and mundy 24.5 at lux..and neale 103.5 scoach pts over..mundy seems the value seein he's 1.17 at sbet for 25.. And 1.20 at lads.. Lux definitely give best value on goals and disp overs

 

[ricardogp]

Using Sportsbet's new same-game-multi feature :

Eagles win / Kennedy 3+ goals / Priddis 25+ disposals @ $2

 

[FrankGrimes]

hows the weather looking perth peoples?

 

[ricardogp]

Fine here.

 

[Coca Carlisle]

Anyone else load up on Kennedy for the Coleman at $1.80 after he kicked his 5th? Can already get a decent cash out

 

[ricardogp]

Using Sportsbet's new same-game-multi feature :

Eagles win / Kennedy 3+ goals / Priddis 25+ disposals @ $2

Guess I went too conservative!

 

[TheScream]

I am with you Scream, and everything you posted (except I think WCE is a better team at this point)

I have taken a multi of Freo +33 and Dons +72. Geelong are staying afloat, they are not setting the world on fire lately.

I do have some other multis on the Saints at -9.5. They are just killing it the last couple of weeks.

was trying to say swans were better than west coast lol. P.S. maybe better to take some of these bets first half. Some of these weaker teams just can't play 4 quarters for crap

 

[chrisdon16]

Collingwood/Richmond-U175.5
Sydney/Port-U176.5
Melbourne/Hawthorn-U180.5
Gold Coast/GWS-U195.5
Carlton/St.Kilda-U171.5
Fremantle/West Coast-U167.5

3 comfortable wins but felt like all 3 losses could of been wins. Normally, hawks stop teams kicking away but they let the Dees kick 5 goals in the last 10 mins. Carlton have been really good defensively lately but were terrible. Saints kicked a goal with a minute to go, the last score of the game, and after the whole week of rain forecast in Perth it turned out to be dry footy, plus Dockers couldn't shut it down, which they normally do.

 

[Lensen]

of course on the flip side the suns unders was all but gone at half time

 

[chrisdon16]

of course on the flip side the suns unders was all but gone at half time

True, but still won by nearly 20 points

 

[mookieb]

Collingwood/Richmond-U175.5
Sydney/Port-U176.5
Melbourne/Hawthorn-U180.5
Gold Coast/GWS-U195.5
Carlton/St.Kilda-U171.5
Fremantle/West Coast-U167.5

3 comfortable wins but felt like all 3 losses could of been wins. Normally, hawks stop teams kicking away but they let the Dees kick 5 goals in the last 10 mins. Carlton have been really good defensively lately but were terrible. Saints kicked a goal with a minute to go, the last score of the game, and after the whole week of rain forecast in Perth it turned out to be dry footy, plus Dockers couldn't shut it down, which they normally do.

Noticed that you picked all 6 unders for the round. Recently read an article on matter of stats website that talked about totals starting higher earlier in the season, tailing off somewhat into the middle and then picking up towards the end of the season. Is this your experience?

 

[chrisdon16]

Noticed that you picked all 6 unders for the round. Recently read an article on matter of stats website that talked about totals starting higher earlier in the season, tailing off somewhat into the middle and then picking up towards the end of the season. Is this your experience?

No idea about that

 

[DemonZombie_001]

was trying to say swans were better than west coast lol. P.S. maybe better to take some of these bets first half. Some of these weaker teams just can't play 4 quarters for crap

That is a good bit of advice. I quite often overlook that halftime margin bet.