2016 AFL - Round 21

[SM]

Hawks 1-39 and GWS at their line for me today, tough day to call.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Hawks 1-39 and GWS at their line for me today, tough day to call.

jeez brisbane out to 3.50 on luxbet

 

[SM]

jeez brisbane out to 3.50 on luxbet

I'd say they worth a dig, even just at the line.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I'd say they worth a dig, even just at the line.

yer on bris 20.5 into hawks at 2.42 seems solid, simply cant see Hawks losing with so much on line their leaders will lift, North too many outs..... im on hipwood to snag over 1.5 goals just a hunch.. good odds at 2.20 with fine weather and good scoring expected, hopefully both teams just go for broke i guess... and stef martin looks a great bet coming up off a rest at 95.5 fantasy points.. he has cleared easily his past 5 games (111,100,105,111,130) taking afl fantasy as two of his scores on supercoach were significantly downgraded due to effictiveness i guess.

 

[benji21]

WH premium price swans win at 1.80

 

[chrisdon16]

Brisbane/Carlton-U196.5

 

[demon_fanatic]

Brisbane/Carlton-U196.5

yeh i like this under.. think game will go about 175-180... teams both arent skilled enough to go real high i think. one might

 

[SM]

yeh i like this under.. think game will go about 175-180... teams both arent skilled enough to go real high i think. one might

Word of warning, I thought the same with Ess-Brisbane a few weeks ago and think that went to 220 or something like that.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Word of warning, I thought the same with Ess-Brisbane a few weeks ago and think that went to 220 or something like that.

carlton set up better defensively..im on brisbane over 86.5..think theyll land in 90's

 

[mookieb]

Last chance for Leppa and the Lions today. Get thrashed and he's gone i reckon. They did it against Essendon so they might give it a shake. Should come out strong in the first quarter you would think.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Last chance for Leppa and the Lions today. Get thrashed and he's gone i reckon. They did it against Essendon so they might give it a shake. Should come out strong in the first quarter you would think.

yer bit of cash late.. 3.50 into 3.15.

 

[FadingTheFave]

1u - Brisbane h2h @3.50
1u - North +25.5 / Sydney -17.5 @3.45

 

[chrisdon16]

Carlton

 

[mookieb]

yer bit of cash late.. 3.50 into 3.15.

Got on at 3.50 but hedged on Carlton at a good price with TAB so no loss either way, but should have waited as I thought Brisbane would come out firing.

Free money on offer with the Hawks today. Poor NM are shot, lines out to 70 plus.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Got on at 3.50 but hedged on Carlton at a good price with TAB so no loss either way, but should have waited as I thought Brisbane would come out firing.

Free money on offer with the Hawks today. Poor NM are shot, lines out to 70 plus.

Wat did u do wait till lions led early and Carlton went to 2.00 and put same stake on as you had on brissy?

 

[mookieb]

Wat did u do wait till lions led early and Carlton went to 2.00 and put same stake on as you had on brissy?

This is a pretty big game for Brisbane so thought they would go out strong and then most probably get wheeled in at the end. I was going to place a couple of SB money back specials on Brisbane and then when they win the first quarter or be competitive then bet on Carlton on better odds. Ended up getting pretty goods odds on both sides so hedged both teams before the game instead and ended up getting a bonus bet from TAB for Carlton finishing within 12 points.

And the under snuck in after looking dead and buried. So all good.

 

[Robo87]

0.5u kent 2g @2.30 b365
0.5u kent 3g @8 sb
0.2u kent 4g @26 sb
0.1u kent 5g @101 sb
(fyi u can get similar odds for R.gray.)

 

[karaoke]

AFL Fantasy
Jasper Pittard
o84.5 2.24 (Crownbet)
u85.5 1.87 (Sportsbet)

 

[Infra Ted]

How do people like the Saintas tonight?

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Port v Mel - draw 10 @ 51 has to happen eventually

 

[benji21]

Port v Mel - draw 10 @ 51 has to happen eventually

Gws wce may happen there

 

[mookieb]

I believe that there is a correlation between teams winning massive games or games teams have "set themselves" for and corresponding letdown the following week. Obviously this will be impacted by the schedule, where they are playing, how young the team is etc. On the flipside some teams are noted for bouncing back from a loss (Hawks) and others will be stung from an insipid performance and likely to bounce back.

The Port / Melb game might be a perfect storm for the factors above with Melbourne having their best win in ages and then having to travel interstate. What happened the last time this season Melbourne had a fantastic win against a top 8 side (GWS)? Lost to Essendon.

Port on the other hand were terrible in the 1st quarter against Sydney and likely to cop a bit of flak for being soft. They will be looking to bounce back hard on their home turf. Richmond last week were a good example of a far better effort bouncing back at home from a beating.

I prefer to have multiple factors in my favour when betting so Port is also very good against teams outside the 8 - with 4 wins at home and 4 and 2 on the road (should have been 5 and 1 as they should have beaten Carl). Thrashed Melbourne in Darwin earlier this year as they did the year before. Lobbe should be back to counter Gawn.

Interestingly when Port win they win well (lowest win this year is 28 points) so if they do win they could comfortably cover the line.

Put a bit of time into this game so the result looks like being a significant disappointment. However, considering how bad Port have been tonight I jumped on Adelaide for the win and line in the derby next week and GC were paying 2.50 at home in the final round. Seems like value especially with Wingard likely out.

Shows the importance of keeping an eye on future games as the line vs Ade has blown out by 12 points in quick fashion.

 

[Robo87]

Any thoughts on Cowan from Geelong? last week he kicked 2 goals. & this week is listed as Fwd pocket. SB has him 3g @20, 4g@101, (b365 2g@4.75).
while footywire has him listed as a 'defender'? He could be value but im unsure as i dont know a lot about the guy yet.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

GC
Rich
Adel 1-39

40 @ 18.22

 

[eatpies]

NICE CALL!!! when did Moore kick his 3rd or Dahlaus get his 30th to secure your win? was it real late haha ? hate when it comes down to last 2 mins..... i know this is a Brownlow topic but anyone think Bont is a serious danger.. last year he polled 3 x 3 votes fairly sure.. so when he plays well he bloody stands out... I think he is pretty much level with Sloane/Martin/Parker/Hannebry group now... and Danger is probably still ahead but you just never know... backing 2nd/3rd this year is gunna be so hard!

I am on the Lions today, just feel like Carlton those big efforts against top teams and a 6 day break they may be flat and a bit cooked, Yes Lions have been awful but they always pull out 2-3 good home games a year and I think today is one... some good ins too.. Stefan Martin, Jansen, Close, Cutler is a definite improvement on the ones heading out. going to be warmish too, 24 degrees, not a heat wave but may aid brisbane in 2nd half if they can stay close early

Pretty happy with it. Sportsbet have the 30/3 market, but if you put the two singles into a same game multi you always get better odds. It was a difference of $5.... I think Moore got his third in the third and Dal got his 30th towards the end of the forth, so it was a little close.

I don't mind bont for the brownlow, they're really hyping up Danger and Slone, but you never know how these things can go!