Analysis 2016 AFL Trade Week Thread

[Hardcore]

Gold Coast want players, Hawthorn won't give any up.

Hopefully our kindness yesterday, will be returned today and we get one of Gold Coasts 2nds as overs for Ah Chee. Or even 19 + Ah Chee for Hawthorns 10.



Now who's the bandit.

now if this happens we will need alot of eggs!

 

[Papa G]

I've just come up with a new theory that could explain exactly why we did what we did yesterday.

Chris Davies and Jason Cripps kept banging on and on about how according to the draft index, 19 and 30 being the equivalent of pick 8.

Who has pick 8 right now? Gold Coast.

But the thing is, Gold Coast already HAD pick 30, and they aren't going to accept their own pick back with 19 for 8 (and I don't think you're allowed to do that anyway). Which is why we are looking to upgrade 30 to an earlier second round pick...then we can trade Ah Chee and that pick (say 25 from Carlton) with 19 to Gold Coast for 8 and 27.

"But Janus," you cry. "Why would Gold Coast want to lose 8 and 27 for Ah Chee, 19 and 25?!"

Now we come to the real heart of the deal, which involves O'Meara, Hawthorn and Bowes.

At the moment, Essendon and GWS won't bid for Bowes. I believe now the Hanley deal is done, Brisbane won't either, having a gentlemen's agreement with Gold Coast not to bid. Pick 4 is Gold Coast's, and they will bid on the highest ranked GWS academy kid to ensure GWS wastes Pick 5, which Carlton will trade to GWS for Marchbank and 15.

Gold Coast will then have 6 from Richmond for Prestia. Again, they don't want to take Bowes because why would you if you can get him cheaper and pay him less (salary is tied to draft position)? So they select someone else, knowing they have the picks to get Bowes at any time.

Fremantle is next with 7...but they don't bid on Bowes either.

Then comes 8 and 9 - and the agreement we have with Gold Coast not to bid on Bowes.

With 8, we select Taranto.

With 9, we select O'Meara - which was the plan all along. See, I believe that O'Meara chose Hawthorn as his destination, not because he wanted to go there, but because he promised his girlfriend that they would move to Melbourne even though he didn't really want to go. So he selected the one club he knew had no way possible of getting the deal done without trading out star players who didn't want to move.

That's why Hinkley visited the Gold Coast during the season. That's why Hinkley and Dixon met with O'Meara recently. It's why we are looking for another second round pick.

Of course, Hawthorn will select Bowes with 10 to try and stick it up Gold Coast, but since the difference between 10 and 19 is a measly 250 points with the discount, it's not going to matter to Gold Coast. They'll get a top ten talent for the equivalent of a second round pick...and everyone is happy.

Except Hawthorn, of course.

 

[FallingLiefs]

9 & Ah Chee for O'Meara just for them to spite Hawthorn would be a deal I could probably get behind.

As long as we don't cough up anymore than that and can get his body right otherwise it's still a massive gamble.

i'd do this.

 

[Power Raid]

9 & Ah Chee for O'Meara just for them to spite Hawthorn would be a deal I could probably get behind.

As long as we don't cough up anymore than that and can get his body right otherwise it's still a massive gamble.

roll the dice

 

[Ford Fairlane]

O'Shea mentioned with hawthorn.

 

[Grave Danger]

O'Meara to be Nick Stevensed. Hawthorn to get him in the National Draft at a price no one else will pay. Although Essendon really hate Hawthorn...

 

[Seanybruz]

It makes sense would you rather 10 & 57 odd which is what the Hawks haven't budged on or 9 & a player they actually want to add to their list to play alongside his brother?

Sticking point is obviously him agreeing to play in Adelaide but if there's one thing Ken has a way with it's convincing players to play at our club, even those we can't get rid of lol.

 

[Rising Power]

I'm hoping we can lever Ah Chee into the Hawthorn/GC deal for O'Meara and in doing so upgrade our 3rd rounder to another 2nd rounder whilst keeping a mid 1st rounder...

Extremely loosely:
GC get 9 (PA) + 40-something (?) + BAC; lose JOM (HAW) + 20-something (PA)
HAW get JOM + 40-something (?); lose 10 (PA) + 40-something (?)
PA get 10 (HAW) + 20-something (GC); lose 9 + 40-something (?) + BAC (GC)
Or something.

Edit: Oh yeah might as well chuck O'Shea in there somewhere too. At the very least he can buy everyone lunch.

 

[NEGAN]

Numbers are a fair way off.

6.6 clearances per game, 5.2 tackles per game and 17.5 disposals per game.

I did mine straight after the Brisbane game during the season I ended it there. Lobbe came back his numbers went down.

Possibly I suck at maths I will see if I can find my post I had comparison to other rucks

 

[Doctor Feel]

Melbourne have done extremely well in this trade period, transforming their core. Just landed Hibberd as expected. They get Hibberd and 59 in exchange for 29 and 68.

 

[David Puddy]

I dont ******* even..

Seriously!? I like TJ, but his last 2 seasons have been dreadful.

"Here mate, none of the other 17 clubs want you so we'll keep you for another three years. One of da boiz".

 

[cj_09]

GC are standing strong on not accepting Hawthorn's pick 10 and 48 for O'meara.

 

[JayPea14]

Seriously!? I like TJ, but his last 2 seasons have been dreadful.

"Here mate, none of the other 17 clubs want you so we'll keep you for another three years. One of da boiz".

Would only hope its on a bare contract...would only deserve 300k max per year on form

 

[Far Kern]

Seriously!? I like TJ, but his last 2 seasons have been dreadful.

"Here mate, none of the other 17 clubs want you so we'll keep you for another three years. One of da boiz".

I thought TJ had returned to good form in the weeks leading up to his brain fade this year.

 

[Forzaport]

I've just come up with a new theory that could explain exactly why we did what we did yesterday.

Chris Davies and Jason Cripps kept banging on and on about how according to the draft index, 19 and 30 being the equivalent of pick 8.

Who has pick 8 right now? Gold Coast.

But the thing is, Gold Coast already HAD pick 30, and they aren't going to accept their own pick back with 19 for 8 (and I don't think you're allowed to do that anyway). Which is why we are looking to upgrade 30 to an earlier second round pick...then we can trade Ah Chee and that pick (say 25 from Carlton) with 19 to Gold Coast for 8 and 27.

"But Janus," you cry. "Why would Gold Coast want to lose 8 and 27 for Ah Chee, 19 and 25?!"

Now we come to the real heart of the deal, which involves O'Meara, Hawthorn and Bowes.

At the moment, Essendon and GWS won't bid for Bowes. I believe now the Hanley deal is done, Brisbane won't either, having a gentlemen's agreement with Gold Coast not to bid. Pick 4 is Gold Coast's, and they will bid on the highest ranked GWS academy kid to ensure GWS wastes Pick 5, which Carlton will trade to GWS for Marchbank and 15.

Gold Coast will then have 6 from Richmond for Prestia. Again, they don't want to take Bowes because why would you if you can get him cheaper and pay him less (salary is tied to draft position)? So they select someone else, knowing they have the picks to get Bowes at any time.

Fremantle is next with 7...but they don't bid on Bowes either.

Then comes 8 and 9 - and the agreement we have with Gold Coast not to bid on Bowes.

With 8, we select Taranto.

With 9, we select O'Meara - which was the plan all along. See, I believe that O'Meara chose Hawthorn as his destination, not because he wanted to go there, but because he promised his girlfriend that they would move to Melbourne even though he didn't really want to go. So he selected the one club he knew had no way possible of getting the deal done without trading out star players who didn't want to move.

That's why Hinkley visited the Gold Coast during the season. That's why Hinkley and Dixon met with O'Meara recently. It's why we are looking for another second round pick.

Of course, Hawthorn will select Bowes with 10 to try and stick it up Gold Coast, but since the difference between 10 and 19 is a measly 250 points with the discount, it's not going to matter to Gold Coast. They'll get a top ten talent for the equivalent of a second round pick...and everyone is happy.

Except Hawthorn, of course.

I like your theory but there's something about having pick 8 & 9 again that just terrifies me.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

if we end up finishing this trade period with pick 19, 30, 48 and JOM i will name my next child Chris.

if we offload Oshea and Lobbe to upgrade those picks then ill even let CD impregnate my wife.

 

[Shaxx Attaxx]

Ok go away Tony. It's time for the Cripps damage control BS

 

[Arsene Wenger]

Cochrane is def not going to back down on his stance with hawks. He has absolutely lashed then and questioning their professionalism.

What else can they do ? What do they have between 10 and 48?

 

[DazzaTys]

Cochrane is def not going to back down on his stance with hawks. He has absolutely lashed then and questioning their professionalism.

What else can they do ? What do they have between 10 and 48?

He was certainly pissed. Would be unbelievable if they let him walk for nothing.

 

[PJ Power]

Hawthorn is about to walk away from negotiating with Gold Coast. The game is afoot.

A swap of Hartlett for O'Meara would work

GC are standing strong on not accepting Hawthorn's pick 10 and 48 for O'meara.

At least they are true to form. They sweated a second rounder out of us for Dixon last year.

O'Meara should be valued above Dixon by some margin.

 

[Arsene Wenger]

He was certainly pissed. Would be unbelievable if they let him walk for nothing.

Lol we did it with Stevens. He really had a good dig at the hawks. Quite astonishing really.

 

[Chrizzt]

Cochrane is def not going to back down on his stance with hawks. He has absolutely lashed then and questioning their professionalism.

What else can they do ? What do they have between 10 and 48?

Another pick won't do it. After the Prestia deal they'll have pick 4, 6, 8 and then the pick 10 from Hawthorn on top of their few picks in the 20s.
I'm not sure the exact situation but it seems that Shiels and Whitecross were put forward to go to GC but didn't want to go there. Perhaps they can find another club that those players are willing to go to, who can then send one of their players to the GC in a three way deal?

 

[Byrons Firen]

I

I Hope so. Surely there must be a bigger play going on.

Aaron Hall (GCS)would make me feel a lot better after yesterday.

 

[DaTBird187]

Cochrane is def not going to back down on his stance with hawks. He has absolutely lashed then and questioning their professionalism.

What else can they do ? What do they have between 10 and 48?

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Send Puopolo to Port and we'll send Ah Chee to Gold Coast. Problem solvered.