2016 Brownlow Medal

[Armesy]

What are the chances of Zaharakis scoring more votes than Merret ? I can get $1.55 for Merret to poll the most votes for the dons but i just looked at zaha's stats and hes still several games where he could poll potentially ahead of Merret. Thoughts ?

I have Merret 11 and Zaha 4.

 

[Gift]

Heppell finished on 10 votes last year with Essendon winning 6 games.

Cant see Merrett on over 10 votes with just two wins unless the umps take into account DT scores this year.

 

[big_bazza]

Thanks for the input lads i might hold off on it then, if only you could bet on each clubs BnF winner coz Zachy baby would be a a sure thing.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 17

SYD v HAW
3 J Kennedy (Syd)
2 S Mitchell (Haw)
1 S Burgoyne (Haw)

FREO v GEEL
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 S Hill (Freo)
1 J Selwood (Geel)

RICH v ESS
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 Z Merrett (Ess)
1 T Cotchin (Rich)

NM v PA
3 R Gray (PA)
2 T Boak (PA)
1 J Westhoff (PA)

ADEL v COLL
3 S Jacobs (Adel)
2 R Atkins (Adel)
1 B Grundy (Coll)

WB v GC
3 K Stevens (WB)
2 M Wallis (WB)
1 M Bontempelli (WB)

CARL v WCE
3 P Cripps (Carl)
2 M Priddis (WCE)
1 L Shuey (WCE)

ST K v MELB
3 T Hickey (St K)
2 T Membrey (St K(
1 J Viney (Melb)

BRIS v GWS
3 C Ward (GWS)
2 S Coniglio (GWS)
1 T Greene (GWS)

LEADERBOARD:

23 – J Selwood (Geel), D Martin (Rich)
22 – R Sloane (Adel)
21 – P Dangerfield (Geel)
19 – M Priddis (WCE)
18 – L Parker (Syd), R Gray (PA)
17 – J Steven (St K), S Mitchell (Haw)
16 – D Hannebery (Syd)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 18

COLL v NM
3 S Gibson (NM)
2 D Wells (NM)
1 L Thomas (NM)

SYD v CARL
3 P Cripps (Carl)
2 J Kennedy (Syd)
1 L Parker (Syd)

GC v FREO
3 L Neale (Freo)
2 A Sexton (GC)
1 T Lynch (GC)

WCE v MELB
3 N Jones (Melb)
2 M Priddis (WCE)
1 M Gawn (Melb)

WB v ST K
3 J Steven (St K)
2 M Bontempelli (WB)
1 N Riewoldt (St K)

GEEL v ADEL
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 J Selwood (Geel)
1 J Bartel (Geel)

ESS v BRIS
3 T Rockliff (Bris)
2 S Martin (Bris)
1 B Goddard (Ess)

HAW v RICH
3 S Mitchell (Haw)
2 B Hill (Haw)
1 D Martin (Rich)

PA v GWS
3 S Coniglio (GWS)
2 D Shiel (GWS)
1 R Gray (PA)


LEADERBOARD

25 - J Selwood (Geel)
24 - P Dangerfield (Geel), D Martin (Rich)
22 - R Sloane (Adel)
21 - M Priddis (WCE)
20 - J Steven (St K), S Mitchell (Haw)
19 - R Gray (PA), L Parker (Syd)
18 - S Coniglio (GWS)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 19

GEEL v WB
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 J Bartel (Geel)
1 T Boyd (WB)

GWS v RICH
3 T Scully (GWS)
2 H Shaw (GWS)
1 S Coniglio (GWS)

HAW v CARL
3 S Burgoyne (Haw)
2 Z Tuohy (Carl)
1 I Smith (Haw)

BRIS v PA
3 J Trengove (PA)
2 R Gray (PA)
1 J Butcher (PA)

NM c ST K
3 N Dal Santo (NM)
2 T Goldstein (NM)
1 B Harvey (NM)

MELB v GC
3 D Tyson (Melb)
2 J Watts (Melb)
1 T Lynch (GC)

FREO v SYD
3 J Kennedy (Syd)
2 D Hannebery (Syd)
1 T Mitchell (Syd)

ADEL v ESS
3 R Sloane (Adel)
2 E Betts (Adel)
1 R Laird (Adel)

LEADERBOARD

27 - P Dangerfield (Geel)
25 - R Sloane (Adel), J Selwood (Geel)
24 - D Martin (Rich)
21 - R Gray (PA), M Priddis (WCE),
20 - J Steven (St K), S Mitchell (Haw)
19 - S Coniglio (GWS), L Parker (Syd)

 

[Duritz]

How come so many of you guys have got Dangerfield not leading? Seriously?

 

[Armesy]

Heppell finished on 10 votes last year with Essendon winning 6 games.

Cant see Merrett on over 10 votes with just two wins unless the umps take into account DT scores this year.

Agree it seems high. But speaking in generalities does help with the brownlow. Every game is a separate event.

I've got Merret getting votes as follows

Round 2 - 2
4 -1
8-2
16-2
17-1
18-1
21-2

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 20

RICH v COLL
3. D Martin (Rich)
2. A Rance (Rich)
1. A Treloar (Coll)

SYD v PA
3 D Hannebery (Syd)
2 L Parker (Syd)
1 J Kennedy (Syd)

MELB v HAW
3 M Gawn (Melb)
2 J Viney (Melb)
1 N Jones (Melb)

GC v GWS
3 S May (GC)
2 T Scully (GWS)
1 T Lynch (GC)

ADEL v BRIS
3 R Sloane (Adel)
2 T Walker (Adel)
1 B Crouch (Adel)

WB v NM
3 J Johannisen (WB)
2 M Bontempelli (WB)
1 T Goldstein (NM)

CARL v ST K
3 J Newnes (St K)
2 N Riewoldt (St K)
1 T Membrey (St K)

FREO v WCE
3 J Kennedy (WCE)
2 L Shuey (WCE)
1 M Priddis (WCE)

GEEL v ESS
3 C Enright (Geel)
2 P Dangerfield (Geel)
1 T Hawkins (Geel)

LEADERBOARD29 -
29 - P Dangerfield (Geel)
28 - R Sloane (Adel)
27 - D Martin (Rich)
25 - J Selwood (Geel)
22 - M Priddis (WCE)
21 - R Gray (PA), L Parker (Syd)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 21
WB v COLL
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 L Dahlhaus (WB)
1 J Aish (Coll)

BRIS v CARL
3 T Rockliff (Bris)
2 D Zorko (Bris)
1 P Cripps (Carl)

HAW v NM
3 J Smith (Haw)
2 S Mitchell (Haw)
1 J Lewis (Haw)

GWS v WCE
3 L Shuey (WCE)
2 S Coniglio (GWS)
1 N Natanui (WCE)

PA v MELB
3 D Tyson (Melb)
2 M Gawn (Melb)
1 O Wines (PA)

ST K v SYD
3 L Parker (Syd)
2 D Hannebery (Syd)
1 L Franklin (Syd)

ESS v GC
3 D Zaharakis (Ess)
2 T Miller (GC)
1 Z Merrett (Ess)

FREO v ADEL
3 E Betts (Adel)
2 R Atkins (Adel)
1 J Lyons (Adel)

RICH v GEEL
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 P Dangerfield (Geel)
1 J Selwood (Geel)


LEADERBOARD

31 - P Dangerfield (Geel)
30 - D Martin (Rich)
28 - R Sloane (Adel)
26 - J Selwood (Geel)
24 - L Parker (Syd)
23 - D Hannebery (Syd)
22 - M Priddis (WCE), M Bontempelli (WB) , S Mitchell (Haw)

 

[X_box_X]

Here comes Sloane!

 

[Geeves Train]

Whilst I am sure I will get heavily ridiculed for this I don't mind a bit of Rory Laird at $34 on Ladbrokes for Adeliade, most bookies have him 2nd in team markets and Crownbet have any other player at $8 (not sure who else could possibly pole but Laird). Don't think he will win but having a small go at $34 in case Sloany has a stinker, he only got 4 votes from 16 games last year. Would be interested to see other people's Adeliade counts if we are still sharing after the Phantom Brownlow episode.

 

[Youdy]

Whilst I am sure I will get heavily ridiculed for this I don't mind a bit of Rory Laird at $34 on Ladbrokes for Adeliade, most bookies have him 2nd in team markets and Crownbet have any other player at $8 (not sure who else could possibly pole but Laird). Don't think he will win but having a small go at $34 in case Sloany has a stinker, he only got 4 votes from 16 games last year. Would be interested to see other people's Adeliade counts if we are still sharing after the Phantom Brownlow episode.

Would be shocked if Sloane didn't win the Adelaide count
have Thompson second but I polled him very heavily early

 

[FootyStar#1]

Would be such a huge upset for Sloane not to win it. Sloane has it in the bag.

 

[X_box_X]

Laird at $34 seems like a smart bet. It's obviously not about whether you think he polls the most votes for Adelaide but whether:
A) He would poll the most votes in this position more than once in 34 attempts, or
B) Whether you can lay him on an exchange for a price less than $32.80 to guarantee yourself a profit.

 

[Armesy]

Whilst I am sure I will get heavily ridiculed for this I don't mind a bit of Rory Laird at $34 on Ladbrokes for Adeliade, most bookies have him 2nd in team markets and Crownbet have any other player at $8 (not sure who else could possibly pole but Laird). Don't think he will win but having a small go at $34 in case Sloany has a stinker, he only got 4 votes from 16 games last year. Would be interested to see other people's Adeliade counts if we are still sharing after the Phantom Brownlow episode.

I have Laird with 7 votes, behind Betts 16, B crouch 8.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I have laird on 6

 

[Sausage Legs]

Whilst I am sure I will get heavily ridiculed for this I don't mind a bit of Rory Laird at $34 on Ladbrokes for Adeliade, most bookies have him 2nd in team markets and Crownbet have any other player at $8 (not sure who else could possibly pole but Laird). Don't think he will win but having a small go at $34 in case Sloany has a stinker, he only got 4 votes from 16 games last year. Would be interested to see other people's Adeliade counts if we are still sharing after the Phantom Brownlow episode.

Has had plenty of stats, although that's the same with every other half back runner in other years that don't seem to poll. Heath shaw best example, plenty of it, won Gws best and fairest, 0 Brownlow votes. Just my opinion tho, ya never know. Think I have laird around the 6-8 mark

 

[X_box_X]

Has had plenty of stats, although that's the same with every other half back runner in other years that don't seem to poll. Heath shaw best example, plenty of it, won Gws best and fairest, 0 Brownlow votes. Just my opinion tho, ya never know. Think I have laird around the 6-8 mark

 

[Geeves Train]

Thanks Lads, good to hear some thoughts even if they don't provide much support for Laird. I think Sloane has it sewn up too but was thinking Laird could be the one to jump out of the pack based upon his season. Sloane hasn't been much of a poller previously but with no Paddy here is every chance this will change. Good to see people having an opinion, the Brownlow thread used to be sensational but I think most contributors have taken their discussions behind closed doors for obvious reasons

 

[mookieb]

...the Brownlow thread used to be sensational but I think most contributors have taken their discussions behind closed doors for obvious reasons

What are the obvious reasons? I have only been on here for just over a year but the Brownlow thread was pretty good last year and helped me win some coin.

 

[happy_eagle]

What are the obvious reasons? I have only been on here for just over a year but the Brownlow thread was pretty good last year and helped me win some coin.

The Brownlow is a pretty easy thing to profit out of if you keep a list of votes, and have a decent methodology behind your votes. Some worry about if they post their tally or suggested bets then the odds will dive down if everyone jumps on.
I post my votes here (and will continue to do so when I update them) and have no issue doing so. I've received invites from people on here to join private brownlow forums, but declined

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I've appreciated the offers from a few inviting me to private brownlow forums but Ive never minded sharing my thoughts on here, I figure we are all on the same side more or less, trying to get a small win over the bookies. my results have been consistent and pretty accurate with good ROI, getting at least 13 of the team votes right each year, hoping that continues this year. That said, not a heap of value this year.

 

[Geeves Train]

What are the obvious reasons? I have only been on here for just over a year but the Brownlow thread was pretty good last year and helped me win some coin.

This is a pretty loose explanation but basically about 4-5 years ago (when multis were still permitted) people on this thread absolutely cleaned up, I'm talking tens of thousands for stakes of a few hundred. Anyway next year people spent ages doing their own counts and discussing value tips etc and someone took all the data and made their own site heavily sponsored by corporates and the odds that basically reflected everything people in the thread had said so all their time was wasted. From what I understand many posters took their conversation off this site and away from prying eyes. Can't blame them, would love to hear how they have gone over the last few years.

 

[bph25]

This is a pretty loose explanation but basically about 4-5 years ago (when multis were still permitted) people on this thread absolutely cleaned up, I'm talking tens of thousands for stakes of a few hundred. Anyway next year people spent ages doing their own counts and discussing value tips etc and someone took all the data and made their own site heavily sponsored by corporates and the odds that basically reflected everything people in the thread had said so all their time was wasted. From what I understand many posters took their conversation off this site and away from prying eyes. Can't blame them, would love to hear how they have gone over the last few years.

I was one of them. Cleaned up a couple years in a row then went to a private room with 20 odd others.
Lost two years in a row. I think you get persuaded too much when you are in the chat discussing everything week to week.
Have won the last two years since I went back to doing it myself.
No one won anything while I was in those private rooms