2016 Draft discussion

[13Beast]

Burst speed is good for getting away from bouncers, but 100m speed is the thing for getting away from coppers.

And fence jumping (not speaking from experience... Being an ex hurdler should help in that department too!

 

[brutus76]

Nice work with the low picks... could offload 20 for Mckenzie

 

[Fatcat08]

Nice work with the low picks... could offload 20 for Mckenzie

It's ok starting out in comedy is hard, keep at it

 

[snooplions]

It's ok starting out in comedy is hard, keep at it

Rough crowd.

 

[Dalions]

Nice work with the low picks... could offload 20 for Mckenzie

Essendon's pick 20?

 

[Len S]

I wasn't there but have seen some vision. I suppose the consolation is that he won the hurdles quite convincingly and assume they all had the same wind assistance.

Yeah,all hurdles and sprints had massive wind assistance, as I mentioned, sometimes over 6. McGrath does his best work in the back half of the race,but I think he reads the play so well his pace could be average and he'd still look smart.

 

[bungalow_bill]

The Carlton board are 100& certain that we are using 3 on SPS

 

[Carlos Danger]

The Carlton board are 100& certain that we are using 3 on SPS

The carlton board are 100% certain santa, the tooth fairy & the easter bunny are real

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

The Carlton board are 100& certain that we are using 3 on SPS

Based on what?

 

[bungalow_bill]

Based on what?

Apparently based on something to do with our trade with GWS. It was all a bit vague

 

[Bucking Beads]

I'd laugh if the Bombers took McGrath. That'll **** with the Giants

 

[lionbear]

I'd laugh if the Bombers took McGrath. That'll **** with the Giants

Bombers almost have to take McGrath now, it's worth it just to watch the looks on the GWS faces.

 

[Gibbo_88]

I really hope trading pick 2 doesn't come back to bite us. We better nail this draft so we're not left wondering "what if".

 

[Mayestro]

Based on what?

Hopium. It fits their narrative so they'll get the player they want.

 

[Panthera]

The Carlton board are 100& certain that we are using 3 on SPS

Not at pick 3...but if we nab pick 6 I'd be happy to have him for a couple of seasons

But in all seriousness; Halls Creek (pop. 1200) is almost as close to Brisbane as it is Perth

 

[SizeMatters]

Can't see GWS taking McCluggage with their midfield depth. They will go Ainsworth you would think... Leaving McCluggage to slide to us and I assume we rate him highly. His production is through the roof as a bloke who can get his 25 touches but also kick 3-4 goals. Personally though there is something I just don't like about him... maybe too introverted and a bit soft for my liking.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Can't see GWS taking McCluggage with their midfield depth. They will go Ainsworth you would think... Leaving McCluggage to slide to us and I assume we rate him highly. His production is through the roof as a bloke who can get his 25 touches but also kick 3-4 goals. Personally though there is something I just don't like about him... maybe too introverted and a bit soft for my liking.

NiceMatters.

 

[Biggies]

Thought I'd look at the pick swap in more detail and compare pick 2 with pick 3 since 2000. So we can really look at what sort of quality of a player we may have given up and the quality we might be receiving. Also gave my hindsight suggestion of the better player (which some may or may not agree with).

(Mods will quote so it doesn't take up so much room)

2000
2-Koschitzke, 3-Didak
(Verdict = 3 better)

2001
2-Ball, 3-Judd
(Verdict = 3 better)

2002
2-Wells, 3-Brennan
(Verdict = 2 better)

2003
2-Walker, 3-Sylvia
(Verdict = 2 better)

2004
2-Roughead, 3-Griffin
(Verdict = 2 better)

2005
2-Thomas, 3-Ellis
(Verdict = 2 better)

2006
2-Gumbleton, 3-Hansen
(Verdict = 3 better)

2007
2-Cotchin, 3-Masten
(Verdict = 2 better)

2008
2-Naitanui, 3-S.Hill
(Verdict = 2 better)

2009
2-Trengove, 3-Martin
(Verdict = 3 better)

2010
2-Bennell, 3-Day
(Verdict = 2 better talentwise but maybe even here)

2011
2-Coniglio, 3-Tyson
(Verdict = Even)

2012
2-O'Rourke, 3-Plowman
(Verdict = Even)

2013
2-Kelly, 3-Billings
(Verdict = 2 better)

2014
2-Petracca 3-Brayshaw
(Verdict = 2 better)

2015
(Ignored as too early to call)

From 2000-2014 (15 drafts) I believe their were only four cases when the player picked at 3 turned out to be a better footballer than the player at 2. 2000 (Didak over Kozi), 2001 (Judd over Ball), 2006 (Hansen over Gumby) and 2009 (Martin over Trengove). 2010/2011/2012 gave players of similar ilk whilst the others I believe produced better footballers at 2. But of course we didn't just give up 2 to GWS for funsies, we basically did it to score pick 16 back as well, so I had a quick look at the players gone at 16.

2000
16-Thompson

2001
16-Ladson

2002
16-Gilham

2003
16-Willoughby

2004
16-Pattison

2005
16-Douglas

2006
16-M.Brown

2007
16-Lobbe

2008
16-Shoenmakers

2009
16-McMillin-Pittard

2010
16-Jacobs

2011
16-Sheridan

2012
16-Thurlow

2013
16-Lang

2014
16-Durdin

2015
16-Himmelberg

Yes we gave up some later picks too (31, 51 and 60), but of course the likelihood of scoring a star with these picks is much less again so I didn't go into these with detail.

Overall, history suggests pick 2 is clearly a better chance of producing a star player then pick 3, but 16 has produced some quality too (Thompson/Gilham/Lobbe/Thurlow etc. This trade looks like we took quite a risk giving up 2, but considering how little top end talent our list currently has, it was probably the right move so we could bring in as many 1st rounders as possible.

It's a tricky one. Will be really interesting to revisit this trade in 2-3 years and see if this was a success or a fail. Right now its simply too early to call.

 

[pulpdriver]

Can't see GWS taking McCluggage with their midfield depth. They will go Ainsworth you would think... Leaving McCluggage to slide to us and I assume we rate him highly. His production is through the roof as a bloke who can get his 25 touches but also kick 3-4 goals. Personally though there is something I just don't like about him... maybe too introverted and a bit soft for my liking.

GWS could see McLuggage filling their Stevie J role going forward. Certainly has the goal sense and know-how to be in the right spots. Can't see them passing.

 

[JasRulz63]

Based on what?

Pretty much based on the fact that he's a Lions supporter. Also fits into some dream trade where they get 8 and 10 off GC for 5 and a second rounder, AND they get to decide who GC aren't allowed to take with picks 5-7 leaving them their choice at pick 8. Hopium is an understatement.

 

[13Beast]

Question for some of the more informed parties (Quigley, Cotter et al); there's been a lot of talk and conjecture as to who and when will make a bid on Bowes/Setterfield. Depending on where in the draft that pick happens, it could certainly influence how a lot of the other picks fall and can shape the draft (to a point).

My question is this; are either Bowes or Setterfield legitimately worthy picks for our #3 to make a bid on and actually hope to get? Forget about academies working together and all that jazz, I am genuinely interested as to the quality of these players and if the club would be happy to accept them without a moment's second thought if we made a bid on one of them at #3, and GC/GWS don't match?

Would either of them be a good pick up and on par (or better) than Ainsworth/SPS/Brodie/Taranto etc who will likely be in the mix at #3?

 

[Milk Steak]

Question for some of the more informed parties (Quigley, Cotter et al); there's been a lot of talk and conjecture as to who and when will make a bid on Bowes/Setterfield. Depending on where in the draft that pick happens, it could certainly influence how a lot of the other picks fall and can shape the draft (to a point).

My question is this; are either Bowes or Setterfield legitimately worthy picks for our #3 to make a bid on and actually hope to get? Forget about academies working together and all that jazz, I am genuinely interested as to the quality of these players and if the club would be happy to accept them without a moment's second thought if we made a bid on one of them at #3, and GC/GWS don't match?

Would either of them be a good pick up and on par (or better) than Ainsworth/SPS/Brodie/Taranto etc who will likely be in the mix at #3?

Good question actually. I haven't really seen much from the draftees at all so. If Bowes is from the Gold Coast, I couldn't see the issue in Brisbane picking him up if he was genuinely a good player as he wouldn't be a flight risk you'd think.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Good question actually. I haven't really seen much from the draftees at all so. If Bowes is from the Gold Coast, I couldn't see the issue in Brisbane picking him up if he was genuinely a good player as he wouldn't be a flight risk you'd think.

I just see so much downside in bidding on GC academy boys. Once it happens it will be open slather and that could come back to bite us, possibly as early as next year.

 

[13Beast]

I just see so much downside in bidding on GC academy boys. Once it happens it will be open slather and that could come back to bite us, possibly as early as next year.

Forgetting all that though....just how good is Bowes and Setterfield, and would the club he genuinely happy with either of them at #3?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Forgetting all that though....just how good is Bowes and Setterfield, and would the club he genuinely happy with either of them at #3?

Can't comment on Bowes. Have watched Will Setterfield since he was a junior in Albury. Short answer is he is definitely worth a very early pick so I guess you could say he is worth pick 3. He may even attract a bid from Essendon (although I think unlikely). I think Setterfield has enormous potential provided he can stay free of major injury. He is tall but not very robust at the moment.