2016 Draft discussion

[M Malice]

thanks for the summary briztoon i would have Tim Taranto in the top group as well.

1) we should get Ainsworth who fills a need as a classy small forward with potential to have relatively long spells as a mid.

2) pick 16, 21 and 22. would love Berry, Simpkin and Florent but would be really happy with Witherden, Logue, Venables, Powell-Pepper or Bolton if 1 or more of them are gone at our picks, all have been phantom drafted at those picks in various PD.

 

[M Malice]

I'm not entirely sure why this board (and several phantom drafts) are saying we are a lock for Ainsworth, because I just don't see the attraction. Sure he's got X-factor, but he only kicked 18 goals in TAC this year. McCluggage got 25! Taranto got 14 and was mainly playing midfield.
This is a clear draft to get midfield talent on the list. Neither Ainsworth or McGrath are mids - I just don't see it with them.
For mine, a clear top six right now is McCluggage, Taranto, Brodie, Bowes, SPS, and Setterfield. If we don't get one of them I'll be disappointed.

McCluggage and McGrath will almost certainly be gone by our pick 3 and Peter Schwab intimated that we knew who GWS would be taking with their pick 2 they got from us so i am assuming the player we wanted was not one of those 2. i am with you on Taranto, would not be displeased at all if we took him over Ainsworth.

maybe the bombers could throw a spanner in the works and take McGrath who GWS are reportedly very keen on at 2, they then may take Ainsworth at 2 (GWS already have great midfield depth) leaving us with a decision between McCluggage and Taranto.

i also hope we bid on Bowes (if we rate him that high) forcing the suns to use up their pick 4 to match.

 

[carnthemlions]

I'm not entirely sure why this board (and several phantom drafts) are saying we are a lock for Ainsworth, because I just don't see the attraction. Sure he's got X-factor, but he only kicked 18 goals in TAC this year. McCluggage got 25! Taranto got 14 and was mainly playing midfield.
This is a clear draft to get midfield talent on the list. Neither Ainsworth or McGrath are mids - I just don't see it with them.
For mine, a clear top six right now is McCluggage, Taranto, Brodie, Bowes, SPS, and Setterfield. If we don't get one of them I'll be disappointed.

I'm fine with Ainsworth as long as we're sure he can be more than a small forward who can do the occasional stint in the midfield. If we preference him over others because we feel he fits a need at the position, that would be a mistake. Unlike GWS and Essendon, we don't need to worry about what sort of player we need- we just need to pick whoever we think will be the best player.

 

[Slitherin9]

I'm fine with Ainsworth as long as we're sure he can be more than a small forward who can do the occasional stint in the midfield. If we preference him over others because we feel he fits a need at the position, that would be a mistake. Unlike GWS and Essendon, we don't need to worry about what sort of player we need- we just need to pick whoever we think will be the best player.

If it happens I'll be cool with it. He is clearly a top ten player.
I just think the best in this draft are genuine mids, and there are a few flankers available at our later picks.
Absolutely loving late-season Taranto, and SPS is all class, could still be the best of the class of '16.

 

[briztoon]

I'm not entirely sure why this board (and several phantom drafts) are saying we are a lock for Ainsworth, because I just don't see the attraction. Sure he's got X-factor, but he only kicked 18 goals in TAC this year. McCluggage got 25! Taranto got 14 and was mainly playing midfield.
This is a clear draft to get midfield talent on the list. Neither Ainsworth or McGrath are mids - I just don't see it with them.
For mine, a clear top six right now is McCluggage, Taranto, Brodie, Bowes, SPS, and Setterfield. If we don't get one of them I'll be disappointed.

Last year Ainsworth made the Vic Country squad as an under ager and booted 15 goals for the tournament, second only to Josh Schache, and was named in the All-Australian team.

In the US on the pre-season AIS-AFL academy camp he broke his wrist which stuffed his pre-season and he only just made round 1 of the TAC cup, where he badly hyper-extended his knee which put him out for a month. His first TAC game back from injury, he copped a 4 week suspension for 2 separate incidents.

He returned from suspension to play for VIC Country in their second U18 Div 1 match where he kicked 4 goals. He turned the game on it's head in 5 minutes of the third quarter.

He also played as the 23rd man for Casey Scorpions in the VFL at the end of the season against Essendon. He kicked 2 goals.

He missed a heap of games and had to come back from two seperate injuries, and he played a couple of matches at the back end of the season in the midfield. He didn't play the same number of games as McCluggage or Taranto.

Ainsworth has clean hands, and can dispose of the ball by hand while under pressure. He keeps his hands and the ball free. If you watched the U18 All Star game, Ainsworth was very closely marked and many times got the ball in the forward 50 and was tackled or attempted to be wrapped up, but he kept hand balling the ball out to a team mate and from memory two or three times his ability to keep the ball alive and find a team mate directly led two or three goals. He's a one touch player with penetrating footskills, is elite overhead for his size and he hits the scoreboard.

 

[Slitherin9]

Last year Ainsworth made the Vic Country squad as an under ager and booted 15 goals for the tournament, second only to Josh Schache, and was named in the All-Australian team.

In the US on the pre-season AIS-AFL academy camp he broke his wrist which stuffed his pre-season and he only just made round 1 of the TAC cup, where he badly hyper-extended his knee which put him out for a month. His first TAC game back from injury, he copped a 4 week suspension for 2 separate incidents.

He returned from suspension to play for VIC Country in their second U18 Div 1 match where he kicked 4 goals. He turned the game on it's head in 5 minutes of the third quarter.

He also played as the 23rd man for Casey Scorpions in the VFL at the end of the season against Essendon. He kicked 2 goals.

He missed a heap of games and had to come back from two seperate injuries, and he played a couple of matches at the back end of the season in the midfield. He didn't play the same number of games as McCluggage or Taranto.

Ainsworth has clean hands, and can dispose of the ball by hand while under pressure. He keeps his hands and the ball free. If you watched the U18 All Star game, Ainsworth was very closely marked and many times got the ball in the forward 50 and was tackled or attempted to be wrapped up, but he kept hand balling the ball out to a team mate and from memory two or three times his ability to keep the ball alive and find a team mate directly led two or three goals. He's a one touch player with penetrating footskills, is elite overhead for his size and he hits the scoreboard.

Don't want to argue with you briztoon, we're really splitting hairs here. I understand Ainsworth had his setbacks this year, and from all reports he responded fantastically - he is a jet.
I did watch the all-star game, and the TAC cup semis and final. BOG was Taranto. In all three. Goal-kicking genuine midfielder. Hence me putting him as number 2 this year behind McCluggage who has done the same thing all year, and again in the all-stars.
Ainsworth was good, just not pick 3 good. IMO

 

[a mayes ing]

Last year Ainsworth made the Vic Country squad as an under ager and booted 15 goals for the tournament, second only to Josh Schache, and was named in the All-Australian team.

In the US on the pre-season AIS-AFL academy camp he broke his wrist which stuffed his pre-season and he only just made round 1 of the TAC cup, where he badly hyper-extended his knee which put him out for a month. His first TAC game back from injury, he copped a 4 week suspension for 2 separate incidents.

He returned from suspension to play for VIC Country in their second U18 Div 1 match where he kicked 4 goals. He turned the game on it's head in 5 minutes of the third quarter.

He also played as the 23rd man for Casey Scorpions in the VFL at the end of the season against Essendon. He kicked 2 goals.

He missed a heap of games and had to come back from two seperate injuries, and he played a couple of matches at the back end of the season in the midfield. He didn't play the same number of games as McCluggage or Taranto.

Ainsworth has clean hands, and can dispose of the ball by hand while under pressure. He keeps his hands and the ball free. If you watched the U18 All Star game, Ainsworth was very closely marked and many times got the ball in the forward 50 and was tackled or attempted to be wrapped up, but he kept hand balling the ball out to a team mate and from memory two or three times his ability to keep the ball alive and find a team mate directly led two or three goals. He's a one touch player with penetrating footskills, is elite overhead for his size and he hits the scoreboard.

whats the chance of Ainsworth growing a few more cms as he is only 17/18 years old? His height is the only thing holding him back from being higher in the draft imo.

 

[briztoon]

whats the chance of Ainsworth growing a few more cms as he is only 17/18 years old? His height is the only thing holding him back from being higher in the draft imo.

Bugger if I know. I know it's not unheard of for boys/men still growing when they are 19 and 20. I do know in the NBA some teams will send draft prospects to medical check ups, and one thing they can do, is scans of the growth plates to see if the kid is finished growing. One kid was drafted as a 7 foot 19 year old, suffered an injury, spent two whole seasons out after multiple surgeries and grew 2 more inches as a 19-20 year old while out.

 

[lionshine]

I'm not entirely sure why this board (and several phantom drafts) are saying we are a lock for Ainsworth, because I just don't see the attraction. Sure he's got X-factor, but he only kicked 18 goals in TAC this year. McCluggage got 25! Taranto got 14 and was mainly playing midfield.
This is a clear draft to get midfield talent on the list. Neither Ainsworth or McGrath are mids - I just don't see it with them.
For mine, a clear top six right now is McCluggage, Taranto, Brodie, Bowes, SPS, and Setterfield. If we don't get one of them I'll be disappointed.

That is where you are wrong. Ainsworth will be a midfielder at AFL level I have no doubt. Look at his fitness testing results at the combine, he has the tank to play in the midfield to go along with his ability. You say he "only" kicked 18 goals in the TAC Cup this year but he also only played 9 games and spent a fair bit of time in the midfield for the first 5 and he played as a genuine midfielder for the final 4 so 18 goals is a pretty decent return if you ask me.

Speaking of his final 4 games, it was those 4 games that propelled him into top 5 contention as he reaffirmed his ability to play as a genuine midfielder. He averaged 29 disposals in those 4 games and registered stats lines of 23 disposals 2 goals 4 tackles, 34 disposals 3 goals 4 tackles, 26 disposals 3 goals 6 tackles, and in the final round 33 disposals 4 goals and 4 tackles. He highlighted his ability as a goal kicking midfielder. The kid is a star in the making and whichever team ends up drafting him will be very happy with the return on their investment imo.

 

[lionshine]

whats the chance of Ainsworth growing a few more cms as he is only 17/18 years old? His height is the only thing holding him back from being higher in the draft imo.

His height isn't that big of an issue imo. He is 179cm. A random list of some star AFL players past and present who are only a few centimetres taller/shorter than Ainsworth include:

Jack Steven- 180cm
Gary Ablett- 182cm
Sam Mitchell- 179cm
Dayne Zorko- 175cm
Cyril Rioli- 177cm
Daniel Hannebery- 182cm
Lachie Neale- 176cm
Eddie Betts- 173cm
Chad Wingard- 182cm
Michael Walters- 177cm
Gavin Wanganeen- 181cm
Daniel Wells- 181cm

Note: I'm not insinuating that you see his height as a big issue a mayes ing I've just seen several posters on BigFooty comment on his height like it is going to prevent him from playing at a high level in the AFL.

 

[briztoon]

Don't want to argue with you briztoon, we're really splitting hairs here. I understand Ainsworth had his setbacks this year, and from all reports he responded fantastically - he is a jet.
I did watch the all-star game, and the TAC cup semis and final. BOG was Taranto. In all three. Goal-kicking genuine midfielder. Hence me putting him as number 2 this year behind McCluggage who has done the same thing all year, and again in the all-stars.
Ainsworth was good, just not pick 3 good. IMO

That's cool. I should have bolded the section where you said you don't see attraction. My post was in response to that sentence, that's the attraction for some people.

I'm very new to AFL so my opinions should be taken with a 10kg bag of salt. I do wonder how people/scouts judge whether a kids abilities will translate to the AFL from what is essentially high school or junior club football. I can only relate it back to basketball, where we see it all the time, where kids who are 19 to 21/22 dominate college basketball, win the equivalent of the Morrish Medal, but fail in the NBA because they don't have the speed and/or athleticism or that one elite skill that translates to the pro's.

At the pro level, almost everyone is big and/or athletic, the defence is more intense, and there is often less time and space to operate or perform.

With McCluggae his elite skill at junior level is basically his ability to be in the right place at the right time, to read the game and his ability to find open spots to be in a scoring position. I'm unsure how well this ability will translate to the AFL where he will be closed down much faster and he will play against much more physically developed players.

I have read a fair amount where people talk about looking for skills or traits that will translate to the pro level. Traits such as contested football translates, being an inside bull, or contested ball HBF, and able to dispose of the ball cleanly by either foot or hand under pressure. That's what people saw in Clayton Oliver in 2015, his ability to win the ball and get it out cleanly to team mates.

With players such as Ainsworth and McGrath you can see how their game will translate to the pro level. They have AFL ready bodies, they have the speed and athleticism combined with positional skills.

It's just that people are used to seeing KPP's or elite midfield talents go at the top end of the draft. What I believe some people miss or forget, is that it has been said time and again by draft analysts that this draft class lacks genuine elite mids in the class of Oliver, Parish, Francis, Mills, Petracca, Brayshaw, or Bontempelli, as well as elite KPP's. This is why we are seeing a small HBF and HFF rated at the top end of the draft. In a draft class such as this, I do not see a problem with drafting smaller but elite HBF or HFF if they are the best player available at the top of the draft, even if conventional wisdom says to draft the best mid available, even if they have question marks to their game.

 

[winged1]

I'm not entirely sure why this board (and several phantom drafts) are saying we are a lock for Ainsworth, because I just don't see the attraction. Sure he's got X-factor, but he only kicked 18 goals in TAC this year. McCluggage got 25! Taranto got 14 and was mainly playing midfield.
This is a clear draft to get midfield talent on the list. Neither Ainsworth or McGrath are mids - I just don't see it with them.
For mine, a clear top six right now is McCluggage, Taranto, Brodie, Bowes, SPS, and Setterfield. If we don't get one of them I'll be disappointed.

Taranto was playing forward in the games I saw, with some stints through midfield. I liked what I saw in Ainsworth, he would come in round one IMO.

 

[blueiris]

The Hun is going with GWS losing picks 2 and 15 so we're still a chance of drafting the Luggage at 2 due to the Whitfield case

 

[winged1]

The Hun is going with GWS losing picks 2 and 15 so we're still a chance of drafting the Luggage at 2 due to the Whitfield case

There is no way they could LOGICALLY hand that penalty to them after trade week, a penalty would have to be for the 2017 draft. But then again logic often has little to do with the AFL's decision making process.

 

[M Malice]

The Hun is going with GWS losing picks 2 and 15 so we're still a chance of drafting the Luggage at 2 due to the Whitfield case

can't see that happening although if it happened i would be going Andrew McGrath not the suit case.

 

[Panthera]

The Hun is going with GWS losing picks 2 and 15 so we're still a chance of drafting the Luggage at 2 due to the Whitfield case

The HUN is pure click-bait 90% of the time...there is zero chance the AFL reacts that swiftly to a flakey case like this

 

[jjami15]

well look, its inly fair if they give pick 2 AND 3 to us.

 

[TheHairyGamer]

well look, its inly fair if they give pick 2 AND 3 to us.

This is the kind of thinking I could get behind

 

[jjami15]

Briztoon good job on the prior listing of payers utilising Twomey's work. In regards to English and also Marshall I would hope to god we don't draft them. I personally would rather Olango than English and hope that we could get him in the rookie (highly unlikely). Marshall I just can't see making it, sorry. I think the fact that both Simpkin and Witherden as they have been injured and have been out for the entire year. However both players would already have been known by the recruiters and would expect one of them to be there at 16. maybe just maybe the other might be there by 21,22.

 

[Len S]

Last year Ainsworth made the Vic Country squad as an under ager and booted 15 goals for the tournament, second only to Josh Schache, and was named in the All-Australian team.

In the US on the pre-season AIS-AFL academy camp he broke his wrist which stuffed his pre-season and he only just made round 1 of the TAC cup, where he badly hyper-extended his knee which put him out for a month. His first TAC game back from injury, he copped a 4 week suspension for 2 separate incidents.

He returned from suspension to play for VIC Country in their second U18 Div 1 match where he kicked 4 goals. He turned the game on it's head in 5 minutes of the third quarter.

He also played as the 23rd man for Casey Scorpions in the VFL at the end of the season against Essendon. He kicked 2 goals.

He missed a heap of games and had to come back from two seperate injuries, and he played a couple of matches at the back end of the season in the midfield. He didn't play the same number of games as McCluggage or Taranto.

Ainsworth has clean hands, and can dispose of the ball by hand while under pressure. He keeps his hands and the ball free. If you watched the U18 All Star game, Ainsworth was very closely marked and many times got the ball in the forward 50 and was tackled or attempted to be wrapped up, but he kept hand balling the ball out to a team mate and from memory two or three times his ability to keep the ball alive and find a team mate directly led two or three goals. He's a one touch player with penetrating footskills, is elite overhead for his size and he hits the scoreboard.

What a great review, good stuff,and thanks matey.

 

[royboys4eva]

In the Carnival Ainsworth tore Vic Metro to shreds in 20 mins kicking 4 goals. So much so that the potential number 1 draft pick McGrath was put on him. McGrath slowed him down and that shows you how good a player he is but don't worry about Ainsworth he is 100% quality.

 

[jackess]

My preference in order at this stage would be; McCluggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, Taranto, SPS and then Brodie. I think Mathieson and Keays will be strong on the inside so someone more damaging on the outside would be very handy.

A lot of the options around our next 3 picks sound quite good.

 

[briztoon]

What a great review, good stuff,and thanks matey.

Not my own work I'm afraid. Found a good write up on an Essendon site and paraphrased it to a large extent. I did add a little from my own research, and some of my own observations as well.

The only knock that I read against Ainsworth is his height. No one questions his skills, athleticism or endurance. And one big positive that many analysts and scouts mention is his work ethic and drive to succeed. Same goes for McGrath, and add in his on field leadership and command of the game as another string to his bow.

Where as I have read people questioning McCluggage frame, will he be able to put on the muscle needed to compete in the AFL, without it affecting his game. People have noted McCluggage is not a contested ball winner, but rather is a player who can gather the loose ball cleanly by hand and dispose of it effectively. He doesn't hunt the ball, but rather positions himself to receive the ball, i.e. reading the game.

The biggest knocks against Brodie are his lack of top end speed, and that when pressured his disposal by hand can be poor, not the cleanest, and lead to turnovers. As an inside, contested mid, you need to have clean, accurate hands.

Biggest knocks against SPS. He had an injury plagued season and he's on the short side for an inside mid. If he was Brodie's size, he'd be up there with McCluggage vying for the number one spot in the draft.

Biggest knock on Taranto. He only plays one side of the field, the forward 50, and doesn't put in defensive work through the midfield. And again he is another who lacks top end speed. During the TAC cup, it was noted he most often played as general forward and not as a midfielder.

 

[Tassie4ever]

Re vertical challenges.

Please forgive the inevitable Tasmanian intervention- Ian Stewart, one of only 4 AFL players to win 3 Brownlows.

Height- 180cm.

Also, played mainly centre square.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Ainsworth, McGrath, McLuggage for me.

Come at me!