2016 Draft discussion

[Lions Lions]

Also I rate Brennan Cox as the best KPD in this draft. I would be very happy if he ended up at the Lions for pick 22 or 23.

i wouldn't be disappointed either in getting a fresh kpd to work with. Or a half back type as we are seriously light on in that area.

 

[blueiris]

Surprised by the Florent pick over Witherden with us already having Zorko Taylor and Christensen in our midfield and Cal Towmey saying that they drafted for needs they obviously didn't think we need running defenders and don't have enough small midfielders

 

[lionshine]

Surprised by the Florent pick over Witherden with us already having Zorko Taylor and Christensen in our midfield and Cal Towmey saying that they drafted for needs they obviously didn't think we need running defenders and don't have enough small midfielders

Florent is 183cm. Needs to bulk up but his height is not an issue.

 

[RoyFitz]

Josh Green headed to the Bombers as a delisted free agent. All the best.

 

[lionshine]

Two guys I think are very overrated on here are Venables and Cedric Cox.

Venables is a mid forward who averaged less than 13 disposals a game across both the Champs and the TAC and went at under 50% by foot. Sure he looks okay on the clips but I sincerely hope we let someone else take a risk on him.

Cedric Cox is undoubtedly talented. Nice pace and some really good skill. He is also an impact player at the moment and needs to be more consistently involved in games. He is also an overaged player who has had issues fitting in to environments previously. He is from Halls Creek but went to school in Perth where he struggled. He finished school and decided to go to Darwin where he only lasted a short period before he went back to Halls Creek. In Halls Creek he bummed around for the year doing basically nothing. This year he went down to Victoria and, credit too him, he pulled his finger out, worked hard and made himself into a draft prospect. The risk with him though is very high and I am not sure we have the support mechanisms to give him the best chance of success.

Earlier on this year when everyone was raving about Venables I personally couldn't see it. I thought everyone was overrating him based on little glimpses(Admittedly the glimpses were eye catching). Eventually, however, I started to come around, I think it was after that goal against WA in the U18 carnival where he burst out of the centre square stoppage and kicked a goal at full pace from 50. Reminded me so much of Dangerfield it was scary. I think he has similar traits to both Dangerfield and Shuey with that burst of pace out of packs and he's a big strong lad who can win the footy and than break away from the contest which I think our midfield somewhat lacks. I feel like he is the kind of player we can afford to take a punt on with 4 picks in the top 22. Might be a tad risky if we only had 1 pick in the 11-20 range e.g. North, Crows, Eagles, Bulldogs, however, with multiple picks I feel it is a safer bet. Will need time to develop I doubt he comes in from Round 1 and has an impact he will undoubtedly have to hone his craft in the reserves and he is a bit of a boom or bust type prospect but considering his boom potential is that of a Dangerfield/Shuey type I think it is worth it. Can understand your viewpoint 100%, however, Quigs.

 

[jjami15]

You are crazy

Not going to happen but nice to dream.

Simpkin is one guy who I think will be gone but has some chance to get to us that I am hoping is available.

OK, you're crazy.

Booooo!

 

[thoselionslads]

You are crazy

Not going to happen but nice to dream.

Simpkin is one guy who I think will be gone but has some chance to get to us that I am hoping is available.

Why do you rate Brodie Quigley?
Admittedly I only saw him 3 times this year. My impression was a good Inside/clearance player who doesn't get big number and doesn't show an ability to spread to the outside very well. Very good at getting first hands on the footy at a stoppage.

 

[SizeMatters]

Agreed but as for the other three picks Ainsworth, Florent and Venables would be a fantastic draft for us. Looking at their mock draft if you swap Gallucci(Who they have going to the Swans) with Witherden at Port's second pick and give the Swans Luke Ryan or Cedric Cox instead of Gallucci that would leave Witherden for us at pick 21/22 instead of Brennan Cox. Walking away from the draft with Ainsworth, Florent, Venables and Witherden would be a great draft haul. Below is my prediction for the top 20 with a few tinkering's to follow the outcome Cal Twomey has for us:

Pick 1 Essendon Bombers Hugh McCluggage

Pick 2 GWS Giants Andrew McGrath

Pick 3 Brisbane Lions Ben Ainsworth

Pick 4 GC Suns Tim Taranto

Pick 5 GWS Giants Will Setterfield(Matched Blues bid)

Pick 6 Carlton Blues Sam Petrevski-Seton

Pick 7 GC Suns Jack Scrimshaw

Pick 8 GC Suns Jack Bowes(Matched Freo bid)

Pick 9 Fremantle Dockers Tim English

Pick 10 Sydney Swans Griffin Logue

Pick 11 GC Suns Will Hayward

Pick 12 North Melbourne Kangaroos Will Brodie

Pick 13 West Coast Eagles Jy Simpkin

Pick 14 GWS Giants Harry Perryman(Matched Crows bid)

Pick 15 Adelaide Crows Jarrod Berry

Pick 16 Port Adelaide Jordan Gallucci

Pick 17 Brisbane Lions Oliver Florent

Pick 18 Port Adelaide Josh Battle

Pick 19 Western Bulldogs Cedric Cox

Pick 20 Sydney Swans Luke Ryan

Pick 21 Essendon Bombers Sam Powell-Pepper

Pick 22 Brisbane Lions Daniel Venables

Pick 23 Brisbane Lions Alex Witherden

I was in the process of doing a quick mock for this thread and this mock is almost identical to what I had thought up for the top 10. I have Suns taking Brodie with their last though.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

With Simpkin and Witherden, in particular, and to a lesser extent Brodie, being injured probably makes them slide a bit due to lack of exposed form, and with the first two could even put some off altogether.

 

[Crusha]

I'm not sure Brennan Cox fills a need when we have McStay, Paparone, Dawson, Hammelmann, Gardiner and Cutler as mobile tall-tallish backs.

Not meaning to be critical (... then why are you replying at all ...), but you are not comparing Apples with Apples.

Aside from Hammelmann (who, if he is going to make it as a KPD, will be a long term development project) none are KPD's.

We started 2016 with Merritt, Clarke & Andrews as KPD's on our Depth Chart, with Hammelmann as a Rookie who could potentially be developed for such a role (and Sam Skinner in long term re-hab from a knee re-construction .... and now in a similar situation for 2017 season).
The loss of Clarke, so unexpectedly, left a gaping whole, and when you add the loss of Merritt at the end of the season, the situation has compounded exponentially.
We would all agree that defense was our biggest problem last year (albeit as much team as it was individuals), and has to be corrected asap if we are to set off in search of our next premiership. (I think Fagan mentioned something similar .... on more than one occasion).

Sure, we have brought in Frost, who is a good fit in terms of age, and whose best displayed form will be of benefit (Collingwood didn't think it was there back half of 2016, here's hoping it returns). There wasn't a lot else on offer (willing to come here), so the Draft is where we have to look.

Given KPD's take some time to develop, sooner rather than later is what is needed, especially if a prospect is available now (why delay "development" for another year, in the hope that a suitable prospect may be available to us next year).

I agree with Quigley that Brennan Cox is the best genuine KPD prospect in this draft, and that selecting him in that 2nd Rnd brace of picks is a no brainer. Yes, like all picks in every Draft, it would be speculative, but there is a lot to like with Cox, and given he is only new to the game, who knows how much better he may become - potential is high.

 

[jackess]

Not meaning to be critical (... then why are you replying at all ...), but you are not comparing Apples with Apples.

Aside from Hammelmann (who, if he is going to make it as a KPD, will be a long term development project) none are KPD's.

We started 2016 with Merritt, Clarke & Andrews as KPD's on our Depth Chart, with Hammelmann as a Rookie who could potentially be developed for such a role (and Sam Skinner in long term re-hab from a knee re-construction .... and now in a similar situation for 2017 season).
The loss of Clarke, so unexpectedly, left a gaping whole, and when you add the loss of Merritt at the end of the season, the situation has compounded exponentially.
We would all agree that defense was our biggest problem last year (albeit as much team as it was individuals), and has to be corrected asap if we are to set off in search of our next premiership. (I think Fagan mentioned something similar .... on more than one occasion).

Sure, we have brought in Frost, who is a good fit in terms of age, and whose best displayed form will be of benefit (Collingwood didn't think it was there back half of 2016, here's hoping it returns). There wasn't a lot else on offer (willing to come here), so the Draft is where we have to look.

Given KPD's take some time to develop, sooner rather than later is what is needed, especially if a prospect is available now (why delay "development" for another year, in the hope that a suitable prospect may be available to us next year).

I agree with Quigley that Brennan Cox is the best genuine KPD prospect in this draft, and that selecting him in that 2nd Rnd brace of picks is a no brainer. Yes, like all picks in every Draft, it would be speculative, but there is a lot to like with Cox, and given he is only new to the game, who knows how much better he may become - potential is high.

Isn't Cox sub 193cm (same as Gardiner) with his agility a strength?

Too short for Boyd, Daniher, Patton, etc. how many short key backs can a team carry?

 

[Crusha]

List

Isn't Cox sub 193cm (same as Gardiner) with his agility a strength?

Too short for Boyd, Daniher, Patton, etc. how many short key backs can a team carry?

Listed at 194cm (e.g Clarke 195cm) ...... if you don't rate 194 as Tall defender, then you will wait a long time for a good tall defender to come along.

For comparison (height only) - Weitering is less than half an inch taller (195), and I think everyone consider him as a "tall" defender.

If you don't rate Frost as a "tall", then we haven't replaced either of Clarke or Merritt ..... Frost is also 194.

footnote: Western Bulldogs went pretty well this year ....... and I don't think many of their defenders were over 194 (actually, 1 only - Fletcher Roberts, 196).

 

[Eons]

Frost is 195.

 

[ManeMan]

How tall is McStay? 194? He will surely be considered a KPD if we persist with him in defence.. Also, we will most likely be bringing in Declan Watson at 194cm. Alex Rance is 194cm and handles himself pretty well.

I really hope we don't bring in a KPD with any of our first 4 picks. We have plenty, they just need time to develop.

 

[spotthedog1]

It's an interesting question. Andrews isn't your typical KPD, and in his rookie year I would've said more a floating intercepter, but I think last year he proved he can play Key. If his physiology allows him to add some bulk to his frame, his ceiling will be insane - strong key position intercepting playmaking defender.

As it is, I would include in a list of players who can go Key Def:
- Frost,
- Andrews,
- McStay,
- Gardiner (I know, 191cm, but he can play taller than his height, and I've been satisfied when he plays 3rd tall),
- Skinner,
- Hammelmann,
- and soon to be Watson.

I wouldn't not consider Paparone (more a half-back/wing), Dawson (medium def/mid), or Cutler (rebounding half-back) in a Key Position discussion.

 

[jackess]

List


Listed at 194cm (e.g Clarke 195cm) ...... if you don't rate 194 as Tall defender, then you will wait a long time for a good tall defender to come along.

For comparison (height only) - Weitering is less than half an inch taller (195), and I think everyone consider him as a "tall" defender.

If you don't rate him as a "tall", then we haven't replaced either of Clarke or Merritt ..... Frost is also 194.

footnote: Western Buildogs went pretty well this year ....... and I don't think many of their defenders were over 194 (actually, 1 only - Fletcher Roberts, 196).

But McStay and Paparone isn't? Also Gardiner I think can play on the mobile key forwards like Riewoldt, Cameron, etc.

I think we are pretty well covered for these.

But will he be able to cover Boyd, Daniher, Dixon, Patton, Moore and the other really tall forwards?

 

[carnthemlions]

It's an interesting question. Andrews isn't your typical KPD, and in his rookie year I would've said more a floating intercepter, but I think last year he proved he can play Key. If his physiology allows him to add some bulk to his frame, his ceiling will be insane - strong key position intercepting playmaking defender.

As it is, I would include in a list of players who can go Key Def:
- Frost,
- Andrews,
- McStay,
- Gardiner (I know, 191cm, but he can play taller than his height, and I've been satisfied when he plays 3rd tall),
- Skinner,
- Hammelmann,
- and soon to be Watson.

I wouldn't not consider Paparone (more a half-back/wing), Dawson (medium def/mid), or Cutler (rebounding half-back) in a Key Position discussion.

I've seen a few people concluding that Andrews will be better as a interceptor, but I'm not convinced that will be the case at all. I think he should end up as a better version of Cale Hooker based on what he's shown so far.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Interesting that Brennan Cox has played up forward quite a bit at SANFL Reserves level and been pretty successful by all accounts.

 

[Crusha]

It's an interesting question. Andrews isn't your typical KPD, and in his rookie year I would've said more a floating intercepter, but I think last year he proved he can play Key. If his physiology allows him to add some bulk to his frame, his ceiling will be insane - strong key position intercepting playmaking defender.

As it is, I would include in a list of players who can go Key Def:
- Frost,
- Andrews,
- McStay,
- Gardiner (I know, 191cm, but he can play taller than his height, and I've been satisfied when he plays 3rd tall),
- Skinner,
- Hammelmann,
- and soon to be Watson.

I wouldn't not consider Paparone (more a half-back/wing), Dawson (medium def/mid), or Cutler (rebounding half-back) in a Key Position discussion.

But McStay and Paparone isn't? Also Gardiner I think can play on the mobile key forwards like Riewoldt, Cameron, etc.

I think we are pretty well covered for these.

But will he be able to cover Boyd, Daniher, Dixon, Patton, Moore and the other really tall forwards?

Drafting is about the future .... at least 5 or 6 years down the track, not for now. That list of "tall" defenders will not take us to the next premiership.
If you don't think Cox (or any other "tall defender") is worth taking this year, then fine.
It just so happens that I think he is worth that pick for what he may develop into, and that we need to look at that position now, not wait for what may or may not be available next year, or the year after, .........

Respectfully, using your logic, Alex Rance would not be selected as a KPD because he is too short (listed as 194) to cover Boyd, Daniher, etc., etc.. (?)

 

[Flea_29]

Surprised by the Florent pick over Witherden with us already having Zorko Taylor and Christensen in our midfield and Cal Towmey saying that they drafted for needs they obviously didn't think we need running defenders and don't have enough small midfielders

Have to agree with you there blueiris - I would select Witherden over Florent. Desperately need good leaders and players with elite kicking skills - something Fagan will be looking at.
Obviously hoping for the Ainsworth, Simpkin, Berry/Witherden combo with our first 3 picks.

 

[Crusha]

Frost is 195.

Yeah, you may be right (I recall an early Lions website story quoting him at 195).
Difficult to get right when there are so many different height measurements listed for the same player.
For speed and consistency, I used the one site for all those discussed heights (it was quicker that way).

Heck, they can't even get the heights right at the combine (just ask Quigley).

 

[lionsbest]

I think we will probably draft 4 vic boys. The 1 player who they may think about would be Shai Bolton at 21 or 22 but not earlier. He is a 100% hit or miss prospect, could be the next Cyril or could be on a wa clubs rookie list in 3 years time.

I had shai B @21. That old saying ,high risk ,high reward.regardless of where a player is picked any player may succeed or fail. I hope the lions give him a chance and he repays the faith.

 

[TreyHK]

I've seen a few people concluding that Andrews will be better as a interceptor, but I'm not convinced that will be the case at all. I think he should end up as a better version of Cale Hooker based on what he's shown so far.

I think in the long run Andrews can play a similar role to someone like Dustin Fletcher. Both with long reach, good ability to spoil, athletic, can read the play well and can attack and rebound from defence.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[carnthemlions]

Drafting is about the future .... at least 5 or 6 years down the track, not for now. That list of "tall" defenders will not take us to the next premiership.
If you don't think Cox (or any other "tall defender") is worth taking this year, then fine.
It just so happens that I think he is worth that pick for what he may develop into, and that we need to look at that position now, not wait for what may or may not be available next year, or the year after, .........

Respectfully, using your logic, Alex Rance would not be selected as a KPD because he is too short (listed as 194) to cover Boyd, Daniher, etc., etc.. (?)

That's the thing about key defenders though- they're more likely than any position other than ruckmen to be found later in the draft or converted from other positions. I think it would be more a case of weighing up what would be worth more to us between Watson and a mid/flanker vs Cox and ?

 

[briztoon]

What about looking at it from a whole of list management view.

How many of our draftees and second year players can we play through the midfield next season? We basically have a complete senior midfield in their prime years, but little quality depth behind them. We will need to find some playing time for Ben Keays, Rhys Mathieson and two draft picks next season.

If we draft Ainsworth, he plays up forward naturally. It wouldn't hurt to draft one player who can play either down the back or up forward. It's not like either end of the field has any strength in depth.

And we should also look forwards to next years draft, knowing we'll be adding at least two top 10 draftees, one which may or may not be Connor Ballenden.