2016 Draft Rumours

[LukeHodge15]

Well hodge said we are delisting a spud to bring elite talent. For all we know one of those top 10 could be a someone we think will be elite but turn out to be a spud.
Grant was a top 5 pick

I think after further investaigation. Like multiple years of viewing Grant isnt an elite talent ....... U reckon ?

 

[harrisendblue]

You have been presented with two which you ignore:

1) They may rate Ainsworth and McCluggage as better players
2) They may want to retain a good relationship with GC for future Queensland academy prospects

its unlikely mccluggae will be available however if that is the case who do the dons pick up? do they bid on bowes?

they could rate ainsworth higher that's possible. but like ive mentioned before they have good stocks of small forwrd types so again logically you would want a different type of midfielder to bring to ensure list balance.

i discount that completely because the lions hate the suns - they dont want them in the market.

 

[harrisendblue]

I don't think we can go into deficit with 2 players can we?

now thats a good point and one i dont have an answer for. might research tomorrow.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

its unlikely mccluggae will be available however if that is the case who do the dons pick up? do they bid on bowes?

they could rate ainsworth higher that's possible. but like ive mentioned before they have good stocks of small forwrd types so again logically you would want a different type of midfielder to bring to ensure list balance.

i discount that completely because the lions hate the suns - they dont want them in the market.

McCluggage might be available if Essendon takes McGrath #1.

You discount it completely because Brisbane bidding on Bowes helps Carlton. It's okay to admit this - I have convinced myself Gold Coast won't take Brodie because then he likely slips to North. Our bias works in sub-conscious ways, for you it's analysing Brisbane's list in a way that suggests Ainsworth isn't the best fit.

With their player retention issues they would be smart to take Ainsworth and, given they know Bowes will be matched, not bid so it appears Ainsworth is their first choice.

 

[Scotty_222]

I think after further investaigation. Like multiple years of viewing Grant isnt an elite talent ....... U reckon ?

It was a joke.. obviously a bad one because none got it

 

[harrisendblue]

That is where you are wrong.

yeh nah.

ive not had a chance to comment on yur earlier detailed piece which i thought was well written.

from memory a key point of your argument was around the marketing benefits to non afl people in qld. don't see this as the stronger message that can be pushed out there is that lions made them pay top price for a player that was in their academy. lions had no right to bowes so its not like uve lost anything. you then spin the whole we got the best available player blah blah blah blah and rugby heads will probably still not listen.

winning games is what will get those rugby bum sniffers watching you. being better than suns is what will make you the top dog in that market and making sure they don't got an extra good kid will help with that.

 

[blueiris]

I'm sorry but I must be missing something but what does Brisbane gain from bidding on Bowes pretty sure Carlton would be the team that benefits most which is why I don't see the point of bidding on Bowes

 

[Glenn Barclay]

there is always a risk that high picks dont work out that's the nature of the beast. if you have a chance to bringing effectively an extra top 10 player by deleting grant - u seriously thank ur lucky stars and sing out praise the lord. Grant from day one has never been or in anyway shape or form ever looked elite.

so why aren't Carlton de-listing Jones If its that easy to flick a contracted player

 

[Greendogg]

gdog uve seriously got no idea if you think they will use pick 10 when they dont have to.

I don't think they will use pick 10 but they might because they don't want to use next year's round one pick.. I hope you are drunk dude..

 

[Miltz]

well that will throw the cat among the pigeons and will then mean carlton will have to bid on bowes. blues still get to choose between two of the three and still be fine.

everything is possible and i personally hope the bummers bid on bowes to really throw things around - can't see it happening though.

What would throw a cat amongst the pigeons would be the AFL stripping GWS of its first pick, as penalty for the drug advoidence saga.j

 

[briztoon]

Brisbane actually have plenty of forward small types so if GC dont match a bid they will gladly take bowes.

blues would clearly take bowes over SPS because he is a better player. i doubt that GC will let him leave so they will match.

clubs bid on players based on their ability and in bowes/setterfield /perryman all clubs bidding for them would like to get them. the fact it stops the impacted club getting an additional player is the added bonus.

Can you name them?

After delisting Green, we have no recognisable small forward.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

Can you name them?

After delisting Green, we have no recognisable small forward.

He did it before, although he named three midfielders in Taylor, Zorko and CHristensen for some reason.

 

[briztoon]

it stops the gold coast getting an extra high end player and bowes that's the benefit.

No it doesn't. GC have 4 top ten picks. After McCluggage, and not counting Bowes, there are three other top 10 rated midfielders in Brodie, SPS and Taranto. Odds are, regardless where the bid for Bowes comes in, GC walk away with two of them.

Oh, and Brisbane won't bid in Bowes. It gains us nothing and potentially hurts us next year.

 

[briztoon]

And when a top academy prospect is available in three years time and Gold Coast have the pick before Brisbane...

I agree they should bid, but the way the current system is set up there isn't any huge incentive to do so, unless they are that concerned about Gold Coast getting an extra top pick.

Three years?

Mate, next year.

We likely already have two top ten picks in next years draft, our own likely top 3 (1) pick and Port Adelaide's, and we have a very highly rated academy kid who Cal Twomey has talked about as being potentially a top 5 prospect in 2017, plus a second kid in the 2017 AFL academy as well. Ideally we'd like to be able to use both picks as free hits before matching a bid on an academy kid.

Bidding on Bowes gains us nothing other than a tit for tat bid next year. Right now, where our current rebuild is, we could give a flying duck about denying GC the chance to add three top six rated kids to their list next season.

 

[lionshine]

yeh nah.

ive not had a chance to comment on yur earlier detailed piece which i thought was well written.

from memory a key point of your argument was around the marketing benefits to non afl people in qld. don't see this as the stronger message that can be pushed out there is that lions made them pay top price for a player that was in their academy. lions had no right to bowes so its not like uve lost anything. you then spin the whole we got the best available player blah blah blah blah and rugby heads will probably still not listen.

winning games is what will get those rugby bum sniffers watching you. being better than suns is what will make you the top dog in that market and making sure they don't got an extra good kid will help with that.

No I never talked about rugby followers. I talked about AFL followers who are ignorant to the finer details related to the off field stuff in the AFL mainly because they live in a rugby dominated region and therefore all the sporting news in the media is focused on the rugby.

 

[briztoon]

He did it before, although he named three midfielders in Taylor, Zorko and CHristensen for some reason.

Cheers. I figured that's who he would mention. I couldn't be arsed going back any more pages, or haven't got to that post yet. They are all midfielders, and while they can pinch hit as small forwards, they are more valuable playing where their skill sets are better suited and utilised.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah id take it this year too but I dont know much about next year's draft.

Cal Twomey mentioned in quite a few of this years early pod casts, that next years draft class is a Super Draft. Lots of high end KPP's and elite mids. At the same time Cal was saying that this years draft was very deep, but lacked elite talent at the top.

 

[Greendogg]

Cal Twomey mentioned in quite a few of this years early pod casts, that next years draft class is a Super Draft. Lots of high end KPP's and elite mids. At the same time Cal was saying that this years draft was very deep, but lacked elite talent at the top.

Thanks briz, going on this we should probably take him and keep our pick next year...

 

[briztoon]

Thanks briz, going on this we should probably take him and keep our pick next year...

It's an interesting discussion in regards to list management.

One thing that stood out for me reading the last five pages is that some posters lack a complete grasp of all the draft rules (not saying I do) and because of this lack of understanding, don't factor in all possible aspects to their arguments.

With the ability to now trade future picks, clubs have to monitor draft classes up to three years out. Clubs also have to try and project, barring unforeseen injuries, possible ladder positions one season in to the future, as if you're going to trade for a future first round pick, you want that pick to be as high up the draft order as possible.

This is especially important for the northern academy clubs, and even more so when you're down the bottom of the ladder, as you want to maximise your ability to double dip in the draft while your drafting at the top of the first round. Make no mistake, as a Brisbane fan, I want that number one draft pick next year, I want Port to finish in the bottom six, and I do not want another club bidding on Connor Ballenden until after we've picked two top Victorian kids.

Also, don't be afraid to lose academy kids to southern clubs. You know they'll just come back home after their rookie deal is up, to play with their mates who they came up through the academy with.

 

[briztoon]

I don't think we can go into deficit with 2 players can we?

We're assuming it's a distinct possibility we will with late second or third round bids for Allison and Watson.

 

[Greendogg]

It's an interesting discussion in regards to list management.

One thing that stood out for me reading the last five pages is that some posters lack a complete grasp of all the draft rules (not saying I do) and because of this lack of understanding, don't factor in all possible aspects to their arguments.

With the ability to now trade future picks, clubs have to monitor draft classes up to three years out. Clubs also have to try and project, barring unforeseen injuries, possible ladder positions one season in to the future, as if you're going to trade for a future first round pick, you want that pick to be as high up the draft order as possible.

This is especially important for the northern academy clubs, and even more so when you're down the bottom of the ladder, as you want to maximise your ability to double dip in the draft while your drafting at the top of the first round. Make no mistake, as a Brisbane fan, I want that number one draft pick next year, I want Port to finish in the bottom six, and I do not want another club bidding on Connor Ballenden until after we've picked two top Victorian kids.

Also, don't be afraid to lose academy kids to southern clubs. You know they'll just come back home after their rookie deal is up, to play with their mates who they came up through the academy with.

Yep it's a different ball game now... one thing I have noticed is a few supporters from non-academy clubs seem to think the Lions will automatically bid on Bowes like they have to... They don't seem to fathom that he might not be number three on your draft board.. that's not taking into account other factors like back room deals etc.. there is no way the AFL can police this... "Why didn't you bid on Bowes?"
"Because we think Ainsworth is better"
"Fair enough, carry on"
As much as I would love to get Taranto, Mcclug, Brodie, Bowes, Scheer and another top 10 this year, possibly scrimshaw/logue... I think taking Bowes at 10 and keeping the first rounder for next year, might be the smart move especially with 4 second rounders (probably 3 after Scheer deficit) gives us a lot of flexibility to go after one or two top end studs...

 

[briztoon]

so if your the lions would you not make a bid on bowes? also have you heard any rumors that indicate a deal has been done between the two clubs?

Actually yes. If you listen to Matt Granland's & Brett Anderson's SEN pod cast on the Brisbane Lions draft picks, he does mention that he's hearing that Brisbane won't bid on Bowes.

https://twitter.com/OnTheClockSEN

Now this pod cast is 5 days old, so it's not a "new" rumour. And Anderson basically covers everything that has been rehashed over the last 5 pages.

So, you have now been presented with reasonable and detailed posts why Brisbane won't bid on Bowes. You've had fans from both Brisbane and GC say that Brisbane won't bid (and no Bris or GC fans have come on here saying Brisbane will bid). And you've been given a link to a credible rumour that there may be a deal in place, and Brisbane won't bid.

 

[Matchu]

There's no benefit to Brisbane bidding on Bowes. We all know the Suns will match it with their next pick and all it will achieve is Gold Coast looking for retribution in the future. It's not worth it for the Lions.

 

[hilly]

There's no benefit to Brisbane bidding on Bowes. We all know the Suns will match it with their next pick and all it will achieve is Gold Coast looking for retribution in the future. It's not worth it for the Lions.

Correct, they get nothing out of doing that. Best player and maintain good relations with the Suns.

 

[harrisendblue]

I'm sorry but I must be missing something but what does Brisbane gain from bidding on Bowes pretty sure Carlton would be the team that benefits most which is why I don't see the point of bidding on Bowes

incorrect.

post 363 summrises this really nicely so have a read of that.

if lions bid then the outcome i think becomes :

sun use their pick 4 and after discounts have 446 points left over and this becomes pick 40

if lions dont bid, carlton does then outcome is

suns use pick 4 to get one of lets ay brodie/sps/taranto etc, they use pick 6 for bowes and have 249 point left over which becomes pick 52

so if lions dont bid you are handing them an extra top pick and they still get bowes.

getting an extra good kid will logically help them become better than you ...... you get the rest dont you.

as i have said to others for us is doesn't matter because we need young midfielders of all types anyone of brodie/sps/taranto will meet our needs.