Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[The Bighouse]

Don't Bris want Ainsworth with their 1st pick?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

if they were our players we were trading out, as previous pick 6 and 4, would you be happy with that deal?

Would you take #28 for a former #3, #10, #21 and Philips? They're in a completely different situation than any other team in the history of this sport.

Right now they have #2, #15 and the #31. Those 2nd rounders we give them will give them all the points they need for their academy boys. #15 and #31 won't be enough for Setterfield and Perryman. If I was in their position, I'd take the deal considering that #4 pick might not even play next year and the #6 has a bad injury history over the past 4 years.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Huh? It doesnt need to be reported, its all closed doors stuff. The draft order is:

1. McLugge
2. McGrath
3. SPS
4. Brodie
5. ??
6. ??
7. English

GWS moved down the order to get McGrath (they know Essendon are taking McLuggage, and rate McGrath as a worthy pick 1). Brisbane have been into SPS all year (he barracks for them) so it makes sense (they know he'll still be available at 3, because GWS told them). Freo dropped down the order because they want English as a Sandi replacement, and know he'll be there at 7.

The clubs tell each other who they're picking.

The issue now is GCS. If Brisbane bid for Bowes this hurts them. If they get an assurance that Brisbane wont bid on Bowes (and will take SPS at 3) they'll pay an absolute premium for pick 5 (they get pick 6 from Richmond for Prestia). With no bids on Bowes before pick 4, GCS can use 4, 5 and 6 on best available and then pay for Bowes with a couple of second rounders. They basically get the 4 best midfielders in the draft.

We could easily swap 5 and a second rounder for picks 8 and 10 off GCS (with a wink and a nod we wont bid on Bowes at 8, and an assurance from GCS that they'll leave the player we would have taken at 5 to fall to us at 8).

We basically get the player we would have taken at 5 at pick 8, and get a free upgrade of a second rounder to pick 10.

Bris have nothing to lose bidding on Bowes. Absolutely nothing. GC don't match (let's be honest they're going to match it) they get Bowes, if GC do match, they get SPS anyway. So they will.

 

[bad setanta]

GWS moved down the order to get McGrath (they know Essendon are taking McLuggage, and rate McGrath as a worthy pick 1). Brisbane have been into SPS all year (he barracks for them) so it makes sense (they know he'll still be available at 3, because GWS told them). Freo dropped down the order because they want English as a Sandi replacement, and know he'll be there at 7.

The clubs tell each other who they're picking.

Disappointed to hear this really liked the idea of SPS coming our way.

 

[Malifice]

Don't Bris want Ainsworth with their 1st pick?

Less of a go home factor with SPS. He supports them despite being a WA boy.

He's also exactly what they need. Classy outside mid with hurt factor.

I reckon we're the best chance at Ainsworth.

 

[Malifice]

Disappointed to hear this really liked the idea of SPS coming our way.

Its why there is this huge log jam at the pointy end of the draft. 1-3 are locks for McLuggage, McGrath and SPS. 4 is almost certainly Brodie (GCS are in the hunt for mids, including ready made mids now that JOM, Prestia are gone and Swallow is out the door and GAJ is on his last legs).

If they can get 4, 5 and 6 they get to select three of the best mids in the draft, and then pick up Bowes with a couple of second rounders when they match a later bid.

7 is English. Freo know it, and know he'll still be there. They basically got given McCarthy for free (actually it was for a pick upgrade in the second round in Freos favor!) to ensure GWS gets Mcgrath.

 

[The Bighouse]

Less of a go home factor with SPS. He supports them despite being a WA boy.

He's also exactly what they need. Classy outside mid with hurt factor.

I reckon we're the best chance at Ainsworth.

BL's still chasing another 1st rounder for Hanley, see where that positions them after all is said and done come Thursday.

 

[Malifice]

Bris have nothing to lose bidding on Bowes. Absolutely nothing. GC don't match (let's be honest they're going to match it) they get Bowes, if GC do match, they get SPS anyway. So they will.

They then incur the wrath of GCS (trading is done on goodwill, and there will be no favors from GCS for a decade). All they're doing is shafting GCS out of pick 4 (which gets used on Bowes) or GCS simply let him walk and take SPS.

Remember; Brisbane have an academy of their own.

I'd be shocked if they bid on him. The discussion has already been had IMO, and they wont bid.

 

[Malifice]

Would you take #28 for a former #3, #10, #21 and Philips? They're in a completely different situation than any other team in the history of this sport.

Right now they have #2, #15 and the #31. Those 2nd rounders we give them will give them all the points they need for their academy boys. #15 and #31 won't be enough for Setterfield and Perryman. If I was in their position, I'd take the deal considering that #4 pick might not even play next year and the #6 has a bad injury history over the past 4 years.

Exactly. They painted themselves into a corner moving down the draft to secure pick 2 (McGrath). They need a list vacancy for every pick they take to the draft, and need points to pay for 3-4 academy boys bid on in the top 20. Picks 15 and 31 wont cut it. They need two more second rounders and they're set.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

They then incur the wrath of GCS (trading is done on goodwill, and there will be no favors from GCS for a decade). All they're doing is shafting GCS out of pick 4 (which gets used on Bowes) or GCS simply let him walk and take SPS.

Remember; Brisbane have an academy of their own.

I'd be shocked if they bid on him. The discussion has already been had IMO, and they wont bid.

And I asked you this before, what if Brisbane genuinely want Bowes? He's a gun player and from QLD it would be stupid for them to not bid.

 

[BobP]

Its why there is this huge log jam at the pointy end of the draft. 1-3 are locks for McLuggage, McGrath and SPS. 4 is almost certainly Brodie (GCS are in the hunt for mids, including ready made mids now that JOM, Prestia are gone and Swallow is out the door and GAJ is on his last legs).

If they can get 4, 5 and 6 they get to select three of the best mids in the draft, and then pick up Bowes with a couple of second rounders when they match a later bid.

7 is English. Freo know it, and know he'll still be there. They basically got given McCarthy for free (actually it was for a pick upgrade in the second round in Freos favor!) to ensure GWS gets Mcgrath.

If this eventuates, my question is who does that leave us with at pick 8?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If this eventuates, my question is who does that leave us with at pick 8?

Not Brodie or Taranto. Which is why I hate the idea.

 

[Malifice]

If this eventuates, my question is who does that leave us with at pick 8?

Whomever we ask for really.

Like I said, we can ask that they leave (Taranto/ Ainsworth/ whomever we want) out at 4, 5 and 6 and let him fall to us at 8. We know English is going at 7, so we ask GCS who they will select with 4, 5 and 6. If we dont like the answer we hold onto 5. If they're prepared to alter their preferences, we let go of pick 5.

We sit down with them and ask who they're taking at 4, and then tell them who we want at 5 (just assume they say Brodie and we say Ainsworth). We suggest 5 is up for trade, but only if we can be assured that they wont be selecting (Ainsworth) at 5 or 6. We're very clear that we cant ask them not to take him, we just want to be sure that (Ainsworth) isnt rated in the top 6 by them, so we know if he will drop to us at 8 if we trade 5.

We also tell them (wink wink) that we dont really rate Bowes in the top 10 (and thus wont bid on him before then).

With that list discussion out of the way, we trade 5 and 25 for 8 and 10.

We still get the player we wanted at 5 at pick 8; and get a free hit at 10 (Venebles?) knowing in advance who is going 1-8 (so we're pretty sure who to take at 10 - we can talk to whomever holds pick 9 to find out if we want).

GCS get to use 4, 5 and 6 in a row, and get to pay for Bowes with [our second round pick and one of their own], knowing he wont be bid on before pick 9 or 11 at the earliest.

It's a win/ win and perfectly legal. The only potential spanner is Brisbane at 3. I'm sure that conversation has already happened though, and GCS have gotten an assurance Bowes wont be bid on at 3 (or else GCS will stitch up Brisbane when they have an Academy bloke coming though next time).

 

[Malifice]

Not Brodie or Taranto. Which is why I hate the idea.

Brodie goes at 4.

We could easily get Taranto at 8. We sit down with GCS and say we will only trade 5 if we get an assurance that Taranto wont be picked at 4, 5 or 6 (that they dont rate him in the top 6 of the draft). If they make that assurance, we trade 5 and 25 for 8 and 10 (knowing Freo take the local lad English at 7), pick up Taranto at 8 and get a free hit at pick 10 (Venebles).

 

[ray8182]

And I asked you this before, what if Brisbane genuinely want Bowes? He's a gun player and from QLD it would be stupid for them to not bid.

It doesn't matter if Brisbane genuinely want Bowes. Gc will match the bid anyway. They will take him no matter what. All Brisbane will have achieved is to piss GC off. Then watch GC bid on Brisbane players.

Brisbane will not get Bowes.

Mutually assured destruction is what's stopping rival bidding in QLD.


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[Malifice]

And I asked you this before, what if Brisbane genuinely want Bowes? He's a gun player and from QLD it would be stupid for them to not bid.

Because they risk the ire of GCS.

GCS will match the bid - they wont get him, they'll only piss off GCS by costing them pick 4.

Brisbane have an academy also remember. Trading is built on goodwill. If Brisbane do it, they can expect no favors from GCS for the next decade - and you can be rest assured GCS will have the picks and power to really mess over Brisbane if they want.

You want to be on good terms with the expansion sides. There are deals to be had there. Forcing them to cough up a pick for nothing is a sure fire way to screw yourself over later on.

Id bet a million bucks this discussion has been had already between GCS and Brisbane. GCS would have already asked Brissy if they rate Bowes top 3 (which they are perfectly entitled to do).

Worst case scenario, Brissy screw over GCS and bid on him anyway. GCS let him leave (while shooting a 'we wont forget this' glance at the Brisbane table) and take SPS at 4, Brodie at 5 and (???) at 6 and use those two second rounders they had earmarked for Bowes on players like Battle or Kerr.

 

[Malifice]

It doesn't matter if Brisbane genuinely want Bowes. Gc will match the bid anyway. They will take him no matter what. All Brisbane will have achieved is to piss GC off. Then watch GC bid on Brisbane players.

Brisbane will not get Bowes.

Mutually assured destruction is what's stopping rival bidding in QLD.


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Yep, this. As hillarious as it would be, Brisbane can ill afford to piss off GCS. They need to work together a little, particularly in the QLD market.

The discussion would have been had, and an assurance would have already been given. Clubs collude a lot, and share notes (you show me yours and we show you ours). Its the nature of the beast.

GCS: 'Hey Brisbane, do you rate Bowes top 3?'
Brissy: 'Nope. We have him as the 5th best in the draft. We're going for SPS.'
GCS: 'Cool' (We wont forget this when you guys are next up for an academy boy).

Brisbane just bought themselves a crap load of goodwill for nothing.

 

[ray8182]

Yep, this. As hillarious as it would be, Brisbane can ill afford to piss off GCS. They need to work together a little, particularly in the QLD market.

The discussion would have been had, and an assurance would have already been given. Clubs collude a lot, and share notes (you show me yours and we show you ours). Its the nature of the beast.

Yes agreements would have been reached. But if they are asked by the media they have to say they are willing to bid on each other's players as the afl requires this. So Brisbane will say they are looking at Bowes whilst having no intention of bidding.

They're are a number of academy players for both teams in this draft. I would be amazed is either team bids on any of them.


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[djw1952]

It really isn't.

From what we have been hearing, yes it is the wrong draft to do it in........this years is not as deep !!!

 

[Malifice]

They're are a number of academy players for both teams in this draft. I would be amazed is either team bids on any of them.

If we trade 5 and 25 to GCS for 8 and 10, GCS avoid a bid for Bowes before pick 9 (Port). If Port dont bid on him at 9, then it becomes a bid at 11 at the earliest (we would give them an assurance we dont rate him top 10 in order to get 8 and 10 off them).

Freo could bid at 7, but they really want English. I dont think GCS would mind in any event if they had 4, 5 and 6 and then had to match him at 7.

 

[Malifice]

From what we have been hearing, yes it is the wrong draft to do it in........this years is not as deep !!!

We can easily get 3 x 1st rounders this year and the GWS boys without using our 2017 1st (likely a bottom 3 pick).

Picks 8, 10 and 13 arent bad picks. When you consider 8 is = to 5 (part of the deal that sends pick 5 GCS way is they leave the player we want at 5 alone), and the GWS boys are picks 4 and 6, thats a pretty impressive haul.

It amounts to Pickett (4) Marchbank (6), 8 (Taranto?), 10 (Ainsworth?) 13 (Venebles?).

 

[raymagoo]

As far as this trade period goes, you can see that SOS is trying to make up for our relatively poor drafts from 2010-2014 by trading in early draft picks from those years so we don't have to fill our list with a stack of 18/19 year olds from current drafts. What is obviously holding it all back is the Gibbs trade, which the club wasn't able to plan for during September, as they would have done with the likes of Marchbank & Pickett.

I've reached the stage where I think we should cut our losses with Gibbs & take Pick 13 & Lyons & then SOS can focus on the GWS trades & the Tuohy trade. I think once the Gibbs trade is 'locked & loaded' there will be significant subsequent activity & maybe a surprise or two.

I have no doubt that SOS & Bolts are heading us in the right direction. It is quite clear with our trading & drafting that we are not approaching our list management on a year at a time basis. Rather the trades & drafts are following a definite plan, with SOS sticking to his guns as to how he wants to rebuild the list. His ability to tap into the GWS factory & obtain high draft picks from previous drafts is a sound strategy, given our failure to nail enough draft picks in previous years.

Agreed happily take 13, Lyons & maybe dear. Lyons is an upgrade on kerridge and others and still got a good crack at 13

 

[FlowersByIrene]

So there's a lot of talk about trading picks around and what we should be targeting. We KNOW SOS likes to do this, so it's good to hypothesize because it's very likely to happen. Here's my two cents on the issue. This is a really unique draft, the way it is shaping up means that we have to REALLY look at what players will be available where when considering if a draft swap is in our favour.

The way I see it the tiers are continuing to develop as such;

Tier 1: McLuggage, McGrath (2)
Tier 2: Brodie, SPS, Bowes (A), Ainsworth, Taranto, Setterfield (A) (6)
Tier 3: Perryman (A), Scrimshaw, English, Berry, Logue, Venables, Florent, Marshall (8)
Tier 4: Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Gallucci, Bolton, Powell-Pepper, Drew (7)
Tier 5: Cox, Scheer (A), Graham, Hayward, Battle, Kerr (6)

At the moment, we have picks #5, and #25. Pick #5, will land us a player in Tier 2. Pick #25 will just scrape us into one of the later players of Tier #5.

We can definitely improve out position though. But some trades don't hit the mark. Trading pick #5 and #25 for #8 and #10 for example, takes us out of Tier 2, and gives us two Tier 3's, and no Tier #5. Having a look at those names, are Brodie/Taranto and Graham or Cox (note a slider from Tier #4 could well make it to here, Willem Drew a chance) are those two boys better or worse than two of Tier #3, say Scrimshaw and Florent. It's a really tough choice. Personally, I can't make it, which is why I choose something different.

H Y P O T H E T I C A L | T R A D E S

1. Trade Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide
CARL: #13, 2017 Ade 1st
ADE: Bryce Gibbs
The benefit of this trade is; future first rounders are very valuable for trading with GC and GWS this year, they have sooo many draft picks this season that they will pay a premium on picks from next year. The downside is; pick #13 is right on the cusp of being a good pick. Considering Bowes will be bid on with a pick before pick #13, we will only have a shot at one of the stragglers from Tier #3, these likely being Logue, Marshall or Florent.

2. Trade Picks with GC
CARL: #6, #10, #23
GC: Carlton 2017 1st, Adelaide 2017 1st
This is a huge trade. With Bryce Gibbs and Zach Touhy leaving Gold Coast will likely be licking their lips at the prospect of us finishing bottom #3. Throw in Adelaide's first round likely to be in the #14 to #16 range and GC are thinking they're set here. The premium they will place on future picks means they will throw in one of their numerous second rounders to get the deal done. For us, this is risky, but I believe there is enough value in this trade to make it worthwhile, even if our pick ends up being pick #1 in 2017, and i'm willing to back that we won't regardless. Firstly it gives us Pick #6, which is massive. Pick #6 is a guarenteed look at another Tier 2 player. With picks #5 and #6 we would get two of Brodie/SPS/Taranto/Ainsworth. Pick #10 gives us first look at one of the best of Tier #3 and Pick #23 gives us one of the top prospects in Tier #5.


3. Trade with GWS.
Carl: Marchbank, Pickett, #16
GWS: #13, #25
Remember how I said pick #13 was a pretty awkward position for us, this is a chance to improve that position. This trade is a win-win. The Giants may be interested in pick #13 as an opportunity to possibly get in before a Setterfield bid. We say last year as Hopper, a top 4 player in the draft slid to #7 before a bid was placed. Clubs are less willing to look like they "didn't get their man" by bidding on Academy players high in the first round. GWS may think the difference between pick #16 and #13 is a shot at a fee market player before a Setterfield bid. We drop down the order a little bit, and likely still grab some of the same players. The player sin the conversation at #13, Florent, Marshall, Logue etc could all easily slide to here, and if not, we're taking one of the top prospects in Tier #4. The dip in draft position allows us to get Marchbank and Picket for a mere pick #25. And i think that's worth it.

4. Trade Touhy
Carl: #20-30
Geelong: Touhy
I have absolutely no idea how this trade will go, I hope we can get a pick in the 20-30 range, but with Geelong not having a pick in that range currently, I cannot envision how that will go around. What it means though if we can get a pick in that range is a pick in the back reaches of Tier #5


Go to the draft with;
#5, #6, #10, #16, #23, #20-30

DRAFT:
#1-4 McLuggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, SPS
#5 - Will Brodie (Tier 2)
#6 - Tim Taranto (Tier 2)
#7-9 - English, Bowes, Setterfield
#10 - Scrimshaw (Tier 3)
#11-15 - Perryman, Berry, Logue, Venables, Marshall
#16 - Florent (Tier 3)
#17-22 - Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Drew, Gallucci, Bolton
#23 - Powell-Pepper (Tier 4)

Then any remianing player with the Geelong pick.

Turn Gibbs, 2017 1st, #25 and Touhy into Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Oliver Florent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and keep pick #5 for Will Brodie.

I like it. That's our premiership midfield right there.

 

[thylacine60]

gotta be impressed by the work gone into that

 

[Toddski]

I can't like your post enough.

Yes please.