Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[TheHeatleyStand]

So there's a lot of talk about trading picks around and what we should be targeting. We KNOW SOS likes to do this, so it's good to hypothesize because it's very likely to happen. Here's my two cents on the issue. This is a really unique draft, the way it is shaping up means that we have to REALLY look at what players will be available where when considering if a draft swap is in our favour.

The way I see it the tiers are continuing to develop as such;

Tier 1: McLuggage, McGrath (2)
Tier 2: Brodie, SPS, Bowes (A), Ainsworth, Taranto, Setterfield (A) (6)
Tier 3: Perryman (A), Scrimshaw, English, Berry, Logue, Venables, Florent, Marshall (8)
Tier 4: Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Gallucci, Bolton, Powell-Pepper, Drew (7)
Tier 5: Cox, Scheer (A), Graham, Hayward, Battle, Kerr (6)

At the moment, we have picks #5, and #25. Pick #5, will land us a player in Tier 2. Pick #25 will just scrape us into one of the later players of Tier #5.

We can definitely improve out position though. But some trades don't hit the mark. Trading pick #5 and #25 for #8 and #10 for example, takes us out of Tier 2, and gives us two Tier 3's, and no Tier #5. Having a look at those names, are Brodie/Taranto and Graham or Cox (note a slider from Tier #4 could well make it to here, Willem Drew a chance) are those two boys better or worse than two of Tier #3, say Scrimshaw and Florent. It's a really tough choice. Personally, I can't make it, which is why I choose something different.

H Y P O T H E T I C A L | T R A D E S

1. Trade Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide
CARL: #13, 2017 Ade 1st
ADE: Bryce Gibbs
The benefit of this trade is; future first rounders are very valuable for trading with GC and GWS this year, they have sooo many draft picks this season that they will pay a premium on picks from next year. The downside is; pick #13 is right on the cusp of being a good pick. Considering Bowes will be bid on with a pick before pick #13, we will only have a shot at one of the stragglers from Tier #3, these likely being Logue, Marshall or Florent.

2. Trade Picks with GC
CARL: #6, #10, #23
GC: Carlton 2017 1st, Adelaide 2017 1st
This is a huge trade. With Bryce Gibbs and Zach Touhy leaving Gold Coast will likely be licking their lips at the prospect of us finishing bottom #3. Throw in Adelaide's first round likely to be in the #14 to #16 range and GC are thinking they're set here. The premium they will place on future picks means they will throw in one of their numerous second rounders to get the deal done. For us, this is risky, but I believe there is enough value in this trade to make it worthwhile, even if our pick ends up being pick #1 in 2017, and i'm willing to back that we won't regardless. Firstly it gives us Pick #6, which is massive. Pick #6 is a guarenteed look at another Tier 2 player. With picks #5 and #6 we would get two of Brodie/SPS/Taranto/Ainsworth. Pick #10 gives us first look at one of the best of Tier #3 and Pick #23 gives us one of the top prospects in Tier #5.


3. Trade with GWS.
Carl: Marchbank, Pickett, #16
GWS: #13, #25
Remember how I said pick #13 was a pretty awkward position for us, this is a chance to improve that position. This trade is a win-win. The Giants may be interested in pick #13 as an opportunity to possibly get in before a Setterfield bid. We say last year as Hopper, a top 4 player in the draft slid to #7 before a bid was placed. Clubs are less willing to look like they "didn't get their man" by bidding on Academy players high in the first round. GWS may think the difference between pick #16 and #13 is a shot at a fee market player before a Setterfield bid. We drop down the order a little bit, and likely still grab some of the same players. The player sin the conversation at #13, Florent, Marshall, Logue etc could all easily slide to here, and if not, we're taking one of the top prospects in Tier #4. The dip in draft position allows us to get Marchbank and Picket for a mere pick #25. And i think that's worth it.

4. Trade Touhy
Carl: #20-30
Geelong: Touhy
I have absolutely no idea how this trade will go, I hope we can get a pick in the 20-30 range, but with Geelong not having a pick in that range currently, I cannot envision how that will go around. What it means though if we can get a pick in that range is a pick in the back reaches of Tier #5


Go to the draft with;
#5, #6, #10, #16, #23, #20-30

DRAFT:
#1-4 McLuggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, SPS
#5 - Will Brodie (Tier 2)
#6 - Tim Taranto (Tier 2)
#7-9 - English, Bowes, Setterfield
#10 - Scrimshaw (Tier 3)
#11-15 - Perryman, Berry, Logue, Venables, Marshall
#16 - Florent (Tier 3)
#17-22 - Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Drew, Gallucci, Bolton
#23 - Powell-Pepper (Tier 4)

Then any remianing player with the Geelong pick.

Turn Gibbs, 2017 1st, #25 and Touhy into Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Oliver Florent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and keep pick #5 for Will Brodie.

I like it. That's our premiership midfield right there.

Nice ! But why do they all need to come from the same draft?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Nice ! But why do they all need to come from the same draft?

We get more value this way. Three picks this year better than two next year.

Plus players who are drafted together develop better together and stay closer. Meaning less chance they'll leave and a higher chance they'll push each other to be better.

All great sides are built around two big drafts. 4 picks inside 20 in 2015 and 5 picks inside 25 in 2016 means we will set up an incredibly strong core for the future.

 

[BobP]

We get more value this way. Three picks this year better than two next year.

Plus players who are drafted together develop better together and stay closer. Meaning less chance they'll leave and a higher chance they'll push each other to be better.

All great sides are built around two big drafts. 4 picks inside 20 in 2015 and 5 picks inside 25 in 2016 means we will set up an incredibly strong core for the future.

Agree with most of this, but I think the bold part is heavily dependent on the nature of the draft in terms of quality.

Think next years draft is meant to be quality, or at least that's what I've heard.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Agree with most of this, but I think the bold part is heavily dependent on the nature of the draft in terms of quality.

Think next years draft is meant to be quality, or at least that's what I've heard.

I don't put ANY stock in what "draft watchers" say about the quality of future drafts. It's all quackery and charletanism as far as i'm concerned

 

[Blue_Fusion]

So there's a lot of talk about trading picks around and what we should be targeting. We KNOW SOS likes to do this, so it's good to hypothesize because it's very likely to happen. Here's my two cents on the issue. This is a really unique draft, the way it is shaping up means that we have to REALLY look at what players will be available where when considering if a draft swap is in our favour.

The way I see it the tiers are continuing to develop as such;

Tier 1: McLuggage, McGrath (2)
Tier 2: Brodie, SPS, Bowes (A), Ainsworth, Taranto, Setterfield (A) (6)
Tier 3: Perryman (A), Scrimshaw, English, Berry, Logue, Venables, Florent, Marshall (8)
Tier 4: Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Gallucci, Bolton, Powell-Pepper, Drew (7)
Tier 5: Cox, Scheer (A), Graham, Hayward, Battle, Kerr (6)

At the moment, we have picks #5, and #25. Pick #5, will land us a player in Tier 2. Pick #25 will just scrape us into one of the later players of Tier #5.

We can definitely improve out position though. But some trades don't hit the mark. Trading pick #5 and #25 for #8 and #10 for example, takes us out of Tier 2, and gives us two Tier 3's, and no Tier #5. Having a look at those names, are Brodie/Taranto and Graham or Cox (note a slider from Tier #4 could well make it to here, Willem Drew a chance) are those two boys better or worse than two of Tier #3, say Scrimshaw and Florent. It's a really tough choice. Personally, I can't make it, which is why I choose something different.

H Y P O T H E T I C A L | T R A D E S

1. Trade Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide
CARL: #13, 2017 Ade 1st
ADE: Bryce Gibbs
The benefit of this trade is; future first rounders are very valuable for trading with GC and GWS this year, they have sooo many draft picks this season that they will pay a premium on picks from next year. The downside is; pick #13 is right on the cusp of being a good pick. Considering Bowes will be bid on with a pick before pick #13, we will only have a shot at one of the stragglers from Tier #3, these likely being Logue, Marshall or Florent.

2. Trade Picks with GC
CARL: #6, #10, #23
GC: Carlton 2017 1st, Adelaide 2017 1st
This is a huge trade. With Bryce Gibbs and Zach Touhy leaving Gold Coast will likely be licking their lips at the prospect of us finishing bottom #3. Throw in Adelaide's first round likely to be in the #14 to #16 range and GC are thinking they're set here. The premium they will place on future picks means they will throw in one of their numerous second rounders to get the deal done. For us, this is risky, but I believe there is enough value in this trade to make it worthwhile, even if our pick ends up being pick #1 in 2017, and i'm willing to back that we won't regardless. Firstly it gives us Pick #6, which is massive. Pick #6 is a guarenteed look at another Tier 2 player. With picks #5 and #6 we would get two of Brodie/SPS/Taranto/Ainsworth. Pick #10 gives us first look at one of the best of Tier #3 and Pick #23 gives us one of the top prospects in Tier #5.


3. Trade with GWS.
Carl: Marchbank, Pickett, #16
GWS: #13, #25
Remember how I said pick #13 was a pretty awkward position for us, this is a chance to improve that position. This trade is a win-win. The Giants may be interested in pick #13 as an opportunity to possibly get in before a Setterfield bid. We say last year as Hopper, a top 4 player in the draft slid to #7 before a bid was placed. Clubs are less willing to look like they "didn't get their man" by bidding on Academy players high in the first round. GWS may think the difference between pick #16 and #13 is a shot at a fee market player before a Setterfield bid. We drop down the order a little bit, and likely still grab some of the same players. The player sin the conversation at #13, Florent, Marshall, Logue etc could all easily slide to here, and if not, we're taking one of the top prospects in Tier #4. The dip in draft position allows us to get Marchbank and Picket for a mere pick #25. And i think that's worth it.

4. Trade Touhy
Carl: #20-30
Geelong: Touhy
I have absolutely no idea how this trade will go, I hope we can get a pick in the 20-30 range, but with Geelong not having a pick in that range currently, I cannot envision how that will go around. What it means though if we can get a pick in that range is a pick in the back reaches of Tier #5


Go to the draft with;
#5, #6, #10, #16, #23, #20-30

DRAFT:
#1-4 McLuggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, SPS
#5 - Will Brodie (Tier 2)
#6 - Tim Taranto (Tier 2)
#7-9 - English, Bowes, Setterfield
#10 - Scrimshaw (Tier 3)
#11-15 - Perryman, Berry, Logue, Venables, Marshall
#16 - Florent (Tier 3)
#17-22 - Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Drew, Gallucci, Bolton
#23 - Powell-Pepper (Tier 4)

Then any remianing player with the Geelong pick.

Turn Gibbs, 2017 1st, #25 and Touhy into Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Oliver Florent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and keep pick #5 for Will Brodie.

I like it. That's our premiership midfield right there.

Agree with most of that except a few things:

1 - We shouldn't include Crows 2017 1st in the trade. Our 1st next year is already a HUGE risk for us as it could realistically be pick #1 again. If we do include the Crows 2017 1st, I want #6 and #8. And we're going to need that #8 to get Scrimshaw because:

2 - Not sure how you see us getting Scrimshaw with #10. Bowes won't be drafted by GC until someone bids on him. Until then, they'll keep using live picks. Setterfield I doubt GC, Freo or Port will bid on him and even if they do GWS will match.

So yeah, IF we end up with #6 and #8 instead, then I'm pretty happy because I imagine the draft would go something like this:

1 - McCluggage
2 - McGrath
3 - Bowes bid - GC match
4 - SPS
5 - Brodie
6 - Taranto
7 - English
8 - Scrimshaw

Adding Brodie, Taranto, Scrimshaw, would be a MASSIVE draft for us. #16 could get us Venables/Florent and #23 probably Battle or Kerr I reckon.

 

[Jimmae]

So there's a lot of talk about trading picks around and what we should be targeting. We KNOW SOS likes to do this, so it's good to hypothesize because it's very likely to happen. Here's my two cents on the issue. This is a really unique draft, the way it is shaping up means that we have to REALLY look at what players will be available where when considering if a draft swap is in our favour.

The way I see it the tiers are continuing to develop as such;

Tier 1: McLuggage, McGrath (2)
Tier 2: Brodie, SPS, Bowes (A), Ainsworth, Taranto, Setterfield (A) (6)
Tier 3: Perryman (A), Scrimshaw, English, Berry, Logue, Venables, Florent, Marshall (8)
Tier 4: Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Gallucci, Bolton, Powell-Pepper, Drew (7)
Tier 5: Cox, Scheer (A), Graham, Hayward, Battle, Kerr (6)

At the moment, we have picks #5, and #25. Pick #5, will land us a player in Tier 2. Pick #25 will just scrape us into one of the later players of Tier #5.

We can definitely improve out position though. But some trades don't hit the mark. Trading pick #5 and #25 for #8 and #10 for example, takes us out of Tier 2, and gives us two Tier 3's, and no Tier #5. Having a look at those names, are Brodie/Taranto and Graham or Cox (note a slider from Tier #4 could well make it to here, Willem Drew a chance) are those two boys better or worse than two of Tier #3, say Scrimshaw and Florent. It's a really tough choice. Personally, I can't make it, which is why I choose something different.

H Y P O T H E T I C A L | T R A D E S

1. Trade Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide
CARL: #13, 2017 Ade 1st
ADE: Bryce Gibbs
The benefit of this trade is; future first rounders are very valuable for trading with GC and GWS this year, they have sooo many draft picks this season that they will pay a premium on picks from next year. The downside is; pick #13 is right on the cusp of being a good pick. Considering Bowes will be bid on with a pick before pick #13, we will only have a shot at one of the stragglers from Tier #3, these likely being Logue, Marshall or Florent.

2. Trade Picks with GC
CARL: #6, #10, #23
GC: Carlton 2017 1st, Adelaide 2017 1st
This is a huge trade. With Bryce Gibbs and Zach Touhy leaving Gold Coast will likely be licking their lips at the prospect of us finishing bottom #3. Throw in Adelaide's first round likely to be in the #14 to #16 range and GC are thinking they're set here. The premium they will place on future picks means they will throw in one of their numerous second rounders to get the deal done. For us, this is risky, but I believe there is enough value in this trade to make it worthwhile, even if our pick ends up being pick #1 in 2017, and i'm willing to back that we won't regardless. Firstly it gives us Pick #6, which is massive. Pick #6 is a guarenteed look at another Tier 2 player. With picks #5 and #6 we would get two of Brodie/SPS/Taranto/Ainsworth. Pick #10 gives us first look at one of the best of Tier #3 and Pick #23 gives us one of the top prospects in Tier #5.


3. Trade with GWS.
Carl: Marchbank, Pickett, #16
GWS: #13, #25
Remember how I said pick #13 was a pretty awkward position for us, this is a chance to improve that position. This trade is a win-win. The Giants may be interested in pick #13 as an opportunity to possibly get in before a Setterfield bid. We say last year as Hopper, a top 4 player in the draft slid to #7 before a bid was placed. Clubs are less willing to look like they "didn't get their man" by bidding on Academy players high in the first round. GWS may think the difference between pick #16 and #13 is a shot at a fee market player before a Setterfield bid. We drop down the order a little bit, and likely still grab some of the same players. The player sin the conversation at #13, Florent, Marshall, Logue etc could all easily slide to here, and if not, we're taking one of the top prospects in Tier #4. The dip in draft position allows us to get Marchbank and Picket for a mere pick #25. And i think that's worth it.

4. Trade Touhy
Carl: #20-30
Geelong: Touhy
I have absolutely no idea how this trade will go, I hope we can get a pick in the 20-30 range, but with Geelong not having a pick in that range currently, I cannot envision how that will go around. What it means though if we can get a pick in that range is a pick in the back reaches of Tier #5


Go to the draft with;
#5, #6, #10, #16, #23, #20-30

DRAFT:
#1-4 McLuggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, SPS
#5 - Will Brodie (Tier 2)
#6 - Tim Taranto (Tier 2)
#7-9 - English, Bowes, Setterfield
#10 - Scrimshaw (Tier 3)
#11-15 - Perryman, Berry, Logue, Venables, Marshall
#16 - Florent (Tier 3)
#17-22 - Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Drew, Gallucci, Bolton
#23 - Powell-Pepper (Tier 4)

Then any remianing player with the Geelong pick.

Turn Gibbs, 2017 1st, #25 and Touhy into Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Oliver Florent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and keep pick #5 for Will Brodie.

I like it. That's our premiership midfield right there.

While I'd take different players at some of these selections, I like the thinking bar one trade: the two future firsts for 6, 10 & 23.

Would rather we kept out pick out of it, and angled for 10 and 30.

 

[Gingerbread man]

I've said this before and I'll say it again.....
I understood the appeal of Bootsma, given what he could have produced.
Unfortunately we didn't take as much notice to character profiling back then.

I know we can laugh at selection and many will continue to do so as it was wrong for the above reason but have a good luck at that draft year.
There really wasn't a lot of quality around that mark. Have a look and you may agree.

You maybe right, but what I remember is thinking how bad the rest of our young talent must of been for Bootsma to be getting a game

 

[hobrien]

So there's a lot of talk about trading picks around and what we should be targeting. We KNOW SOS likes to do this, so it's good to hypothesize because it's very likely to happen. Here's my two cents on the issue. This is a really unique draft, the way it is shaping up means that we have to REALLY look at what players will be available where when considering if a draft swap is in our favour.

The way I see it the tiers are continuing to develop as such;

Tier 1: McLuggage, McGrath (2)
Tier 2: Brodie, SPS, Bowes (A), Ainsworth, Taranto, Setterfield (A) (6)
Tier 3: Perryman (A), Scrimshaw, English, Berry, Logue, Venables, Florent, Marshall (8)
Tier 4: Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Gallucci, Bolton, Powell-Pepper, Drew (7)
Tier 5: Cox, Scheer (A), Graham, Hayward, Battle, Kerr (6)

At the moment, we have picks #5, and #25. Pick #5, will land us a player in Tier 2. Pick #25 will just scrape us into one of the later players of Tier #5.

We can definitely improve out position though. But some trades don't hit the mark. Trading pick #5 and #25 for #8 and #10 for example, takes us out of Tier 2, and gives us two Tier 3's, and no Tier #5. Having a look at those names, are Brodie/Taranto and Graham or Cox (note a slider from Tier #4 could well make it to here, Willem Drew a chance) are those two boys better or worse than two of Tier #3, say Scrimshaw and Florent. It's a really tough choice. Personally, I can't make it, which is why I choose something different.

H Y P O T H E T I C A L | T R A D E S

1. Trade Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide
CARL: #13, 2017 Ade 1st
ADE: Bryce Gibbs
The benefit of this trade is; future first rounders are very valuable for trading with GC and GWS this year, they have sooo many draft picks this season that they will pay a premium on picks from next year. The downside is; pick #13 is right on the cusp of being a good pick. Considering Bowes will be bid on with a pick before pick #13, we will only have a shot at one of the stragglers from Tier #3, these likely being Logue, Marshall or Florent.

2. Trade Picks with GC
CARL: #6, #10, #23
GC: Carlton 2017 1st, Adelaide 2017 1st
This is a huge trade. With Bryce Gibbs and Zach Touhy leaving Gold Coast will likely be licking their lips at the prospect of us finishing bottom #3. Throw in Adelaide's first round likely to be in the #14 to #16 range and GC are thinking they're set here. The premium they will place on future picks means they will throw in one of their numerous second rounders to get the deal done. For us, this is risky, but I believe there is enough value in this trade to make it worthwhile, even if our pick ends up being pick #1 in 2017, and i'm willing to back that we won't regardless. Firstly it gives us Pick #6, which is massive. Pick #6 is a guarenteed look at another Tier 2 player. With picks #5 and #6 we would get two of Brodie/SPS/Taranto/Ainsworth. Pick #10 gives us first look at one of the best of Tier #3 and Pick #23 gives us one of the top prospects in Tier #5.


3. Trade with GWS.
Carl: Marchbank, Pickett, #16
GWS: #13, #25
Remember how I said pick #13 was a pretty awkward position for us, this is a chance to improve that position. This trade is a win-win. The Giants may be interested in pick #13 as an opportunity to possibly get in before a Setterfield bid. We say last year as Hopper, a top 4 player in the draft slid to #7 before a bid was placed. Clubs are less willing to look like they "didn't get their man" by bidding on Academy players high in the first round. GWS may think the difference between pick #16 and #13 is a shot at a fee market player before a Setterfield bid. We drop down the order a little bit, and likely still grab some of the same players. The player sin the conversation at #13, Florent, Marshall, Logue etc could all easily slide to here, and if not, we're taking one of the top prospects in Tier #4. The dip in draft position allows us to get Marchbank and Picket for a mere pick #25. And i think that's worth it.

4. Trade Touhy
Carl: #20-30
Geelong: Touhy
I have absolutely no idea how this trade will go, I hope we can get a pick in the 20-30 range, but with Geelong not having a pick in that range currently, I cannot envision how that will go around. What it means though if we can get a pick in that range is a pick in the back reaches of Tier #5


Go to the draft with;
#5, #6, #10, #16, #23, #20-30

DRAFT:
#1-4 McLuggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, SPS
#5 - Will Brodie (Tier 2)
#6 - Tim Taranto (Tier 2)
#7-9 - English, Bowes, Setterfield
#10 - Scrimshaw (Tier 3)
#11-15 - Perryman, Berry, Logue, Venables, Marshall
#16 - Florent (Tier 3)
#17-22 - Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Drew, Gallucci, Bolton
#23 - Powell-Pepper (Tier 4)

Then any remianing player with the Geelong pick.

Turn Gibbs, 2017 1st, #25 and Touhy into Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Oliver Florent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and keep pick #5 for Will Brodie.

I like it. That's our premiership midfield right there.

I really like that, my only issue is I think our 1st next year could be #1 or #2(we'll be playing most of the draftees from "15&16"). Is there another way with future 2nds involved?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

While I'd take different players at some of these selections, I like the thinking bar one trade: the two future firsts for 6, 10 & 23.

Would rather we kept out pick out of it, and angled for 10 and 30.

Blue_Fusion is right in what he said above though. I didnt do the maths oj that #7-9 range. Unless Bowes is bid on insidebthe top #4, neither he or Setterfield will be bid on before 10ish in all likelihood. Which means 10 gets us only a poorer, back end Tier 3 player. We really need at least one of 6 or 8 out of GC, both preferably. And i cant see us getting either of those with just Adelaides first.

Going for #10 is a bit less valuable than the effort its worth.

I think #6 and #10 still has value because you can always get a slide. Crazy things happen on dragt night. But 10 on its own isnt a huge jewel

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Styxx]

So there's a lot of talk about trading picks around and what we should be targeting. We KNOW SOS likes to do this, so it's good to hypothesize because it's very likely to happen. Here's my two cents on the issue. This is a really unique draft, the way it is shaping up means that we have to REALLY look at what players will be available where when considering if a draft swap is in our favour.

The way I see it the tiers are continuing to develop as such;

Tier 1: McLuggage, McGrath (2)
Tier 2: Brodie, SPS, Bowes (A), Ainsworth, Taranto, Setterfield (A) (6)
Tier 3: Perryman (A), Scrimshaw, English, Berry, Logue, Venables, Florent, Marshall (8)
Tier 4: Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Gallucci, Bolton, Powell-Pepper, Drew (7)
Tier 5: Cox, Scheer (A), Graham, Hayward, Battle, Kerr (6)

At the moment, we have picks #5, and #25. Pick #5, will land us a player in Tier 2. Pick #25 will just scrape us into one of the later players of Tier #5.

We can definitely improve out position though. But some trades don't hit the mark. Trading pick #5 and #25 for #8 and #10 for example, takes us out of Tier 2, and gives us two Tier 3's, and no Tier #5. Having a look at those names, are Brodie/Taranto and Graham or Cox (note a slider from Tier #4 could well make it to here, Willem Drew a chance) are those two boys better or worse than two of Tier #3, say Scrimshaw and Florent. It's a really tough choice. Personally, I can't make it, which is why I choose something different.

H Y P O T H E T I C A L | T R A D E S

1. Trade Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide
CARL: #13, 2017 Ade 1st
ADE: Bryce Gibbs
The benefit of this trade is; future first rounders are very valuable for trading with GC and GWS this year, they have sooo many draft picks this season that they will pay a premium on picks from next year. The downside is; pick #13 is right on the cusp of being a good pick. Considering Bowes will be bid on with a pick before pick #13, we will only have a shot at one of the stragglers from Tier #3, these likely being Logue, Marshall or Florent.

2. Trade Picks with GC
CARL: #6, #10, #23
GC: Carlton 2017 1st, Adelaide 2017 1st
This is a huge trade. With Bryce Gibbs and Zach Touhy leaving Gold Coast will likely be licking their lips at the prospect of us finishing bottom #3. Throw in Adelaide's first round likely to be in the #14 to #16 range and GC are thinking they're set here. The premium they will place on future picks means they will throw in one of their numerous second rounders to get the deal done. For us, this is risky, but I believe there is enough value in this trade to make it worthwhile, even if our pick ends up being pick #1 in 2017, and i'm willing to back that we won't regardless. Firstly it gives us Pick #6, which is massive. Pick #6 is a guarenteed look at another Tier 2 player. With picks #5 and #6 we would get two of Brodie/SPS/Taranto/Ainsworth. Pick #10 gives us first look at one of the best of Tier #3 and Pick #23 gives us one of the top prospects in Tier #5.


3. Trade with GWS.
Carl: Marchbank, Pickett, #16
GWS: #13, #25
Remember how I said pick #13 was a pretty awkward position for us, this is a chance to improve that position. This trade is a win-win. The Giants may be interested in pick #13 as an opportunity to possibly get in before a Setterfield bid. We say last year as Hopper, a top 4 player in the draft slid to #7 before a bid was placed. Clubs are less willing to look like they "didn't get their man" by bidding on Academy players high in the first round. GWS may think the difference between pick #16 and #13 is a shot at a fee market player before a Setterfield bid. We drop down the order a little bit, and likely still grab some of the same players. The player sin the conversation at #13, Florent, Marshall, Logue etc could all easily slide to here, and if not, we're taking one of the top prospects in Tier #4. The dip in draft position allows us to get Marchbank and Picket for a mere pick #25. And i think that's worth it.

4. Trade Touhy
Carl: #20-30
Geelong: Touhy
I have absolutely no idea how this trade will go, I hope we can get a pick in the 20-30 range, but with Geelong not having a pick in that range currently, I cannot envision how that will go around. What it means though if we can get a pick in that range is a pick in the back reaches of Tier #5


Go to the draft with;
#5, #6, #10, #16, #23, #20-30

DRAFT:
#1-4 McLuggage, McGrath, Ainsworth, SPS
#5 - Will Brodie (Tier 2)
#6 - Tim Taranto (Tier 2)
#7-9 - English, Bowes, Setterfield
#10 - Scrimshaw (Tier 3)
#11-15 - Perryman, Berry, Logue, Venables, Marshall
#16 - Florent (Tier 3)
#17-22 - Witherden, Simpkin, Rotham, Drew, Gallucci, Bolton
#23 - Powell-Pepper (Tier 4)

Then any remianing player with the Geelong pick.

Turn Gibbs, 2017 1st, #25 and Touhy into Tim Taranto, Jack Scrimshaw, Oliver Florent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and keep pick #5 for Will Brodie.

I like it. That's our premiership midfield right there.

I definitely could live with a result like that. Well thought out too, but it hinges on a lot of other people outside of our control.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I really like that, my only issue is I think our 1st next year could be #1 or #2(we'll be playing most of the draftees from "15&16"). Is there another way with future 2nds involved?

Hmmn, maybe.

Is Adelaide-s 2017 1st and our 2017 2nd worth #10 and #30

Can we throw Graham and Everitt in as well to make it worth #8 and #23 maybe? Or #6 and #30. Or even just #4 by itself.

I dunno? Would GC go for that? Maybe.

 

[Cripps17]

Like I said, we can ask that they leave (Taranto/ Ainsworth/ whomever we want) out at 4, 5 and 6 and let him fall to us at 8...The only potential spanner is Brisbane at 3...

Clubs will neither have locked down their picks at this stage nor be so willing to swap their insight with rivalries.

This sounds great in theory until McCluggage skips on a bretho a few nights iut from draft night, causing Bombers to take McGrath, GWS to bid on Bowes, GCS to take the guy we wanted at 5 and then Freo take the sliding McCluggage.

We're now left to pick a guy we rated potentially 8th best, when we otherwise might have got a guy we rated as top 3 if we held onto 5.

Trading down may be worth cosidering for the right deal, but it won't occur because several clubs have an unwavering draft agreement in place.

 

[mediumsizered]

Agree with most of this, but I think the bold part is heavily dependent on the nature of the draft in terms of quality.

Think next years draft is meant to be quality, or at least that's what I've heard.

This time last year we were being told that the 2016 draft had far more depth than 2015 & it was the wrong year for us to have so many early draft picks. As it turns out, this year is looking similar to last year with some of the best talent again being found among the Northern Academy kids.

 

[thylacine60]

just tell me everything is going to be alright, msr........

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Hmmn, maybe.

Is Adelaide-s 2017 1st and our 2017 2nd worth #10 and #30

Can we throw Graham and Everitt in as well to make it worth #8 and #23 maybe? Or #6 and #30. Or even just #4 by itself.

I dunno? Would GC go for that? Maybe.

I can only see GC trading #4 if we agree not to bid on Bowes. But it's unlikely that they're going to want to lower their draft position.

 

[mediumsizered]

Will you believe me if I do?

 

[ParapMarkets]

And I asked you this before, what if Brisbane genuinely want Bowes? He's a gun player and from QLD it would be stupid for them to not bid.

It would be even more stupid for a team like GC with all the picks they will have, to sit back and allow Brisbane the opportunity to bid on Bowes. GC will make a tantalising offer to Brisbane (or Essendon) to swap picks. There is no way they will take the chance of Bowes being bid on prior to their first pick.

 

[Jeremias]

With the likelihood that we are trading 2E & Gibbs, this will only strengthen the chance of a short term finish in the bottom 5 next year, perhaps we may even have pick 1 or 2.

We finished with 4 wins in 2015 and then traded out Henderson, Yarran, Menzel & Bell. Would you have believed me or laughed at me had I said after the trade period that we'd nearly double our wins in 2016?

Gibbs and Tuohy will both be significant losses but if we play our cards correctly this situation can be used to propel the club towards the end goal of significantly enhancing the depth of talent on the list.

I don't think it's unreasonable that we could by the end of next week hold the following:

- 2 x top 10 picks
- 1 x pick in the 11-15 range
- Marchbank, Pickett & Hrovat
- 2 x 2017 1st round picks

For mine that would be a brilliant result - that's a lot of young talent to bring into the club in one year (whilst still maintaining a solid presence next year) and coupled with our draft haul of last year could be the foundation of a very strong side going forward.

Of course the strategy is a risky one and we may well go backwards next year - I have already acknowledged previously that that risk is a very real one.

If we go through with the above and regress in 2017 to the point where we miss out on a top 3 pick, I won't be overly concerned because we've done it for the right reasons. We haven't mortgaged our future nor have we deviated from the plan SOS, Trigg & Bolton have consistently put across. Sure the media will have a field day, and no doubt supporters of other clubs will have a good laugh, but we'll have set ourselves up very nicely regardless of what we may miss out on.

This draft is void of top end talent after the first 5 or 6, then it flattens out to around the end of the 2nd round

Sorry but unless you've spent thousands of hours viewing the draft prospects this is just fluff.

Just about every draft produces quality outside the top 5 or 6 regardless of how many times we hear it won't happen.

There will be quality footballers to come out of this draft beyond the top handful - and some of the top handful may not develop as expected - as we see almost every year.

 

[Toddski]

Taranto, Scrimshaw, Florent, Venables/Bolton

Make this happen sos.

We just need 5, 8, 13, 25.

 

[Soapy V]

Taranto, Scrimshaw, Florent, Venables/Bolton

Make this happen sos.

We just need 5, 8, 13, 25.

then some gold with a few later picks plus marchbank pickett ahern hrovat. may not win many more games next year but it will be good to watch the start of a dynasty.

 

[Juddalenko]

Trading out next years first reeks of instagratification, but you can certainly see the allure. Gosh I hope Bowes receives a bid before 4!

 

[Jimmae]

They keep trading back to the pointy end of the draft. That, plus the academy concessions, means depth will not be a problem. Elite depth at that

Yes but their academy picks are coming at an increasing cost to them, as well as how most top 20 draftees are seeking a new home after 2-3 years (and rightly so).

That conveyor belt of talent will be gone in 3 years.

 

[HARKER]

Trading out next years first reeks of instagratification, but you can certainly see the allure. Gosh I hope Bowes receives a bid before 4!

I hope he does too, but still think it's a very ordinary ploy for Brisbane to have announced (threatened) to bid for him.

Then again, maybe they didn't and the media just made it up.......neither would surprise.

 

[beowulf]

This time last year we were being told that the 2016 draft had far more depth than 2015 & it was the wrong year for us to have so many early draft picks. As it turns out, this year is looking similar to last year with some of the best talent again being found among the Northern Academy kids.

I think just about every year is going to have significant number of top talent in the Northern Academy kids. It is what the AFL want and it is what the northern clubs want. Until there is something a bit fairer coming along we will be stuck with this.
That said, last year appears to me to be considerably less poor than the 2014 cohort. That group is a shocker. 2015 didn't bat very deep, and we only took Silvagni outside of the 1st round. We did thing correctly for that cohort.
The 2016 cohort looks to bat deeper, but there isn't a lot of difference in the top echelon. The 2015 group had a couple of real standouts: Schache and Weitering to name the obvious ones. This year there is NO standout #1. I think McCluggage might get there, but it is close and may depend on how Essendon want to spoil GC and GWS. Sad, but true.
GWS want McGrath. And they want their Academy picks for as cheap a price as possible.
I can see some decent players popping up later in this draft cohort. I couldn't say that last year.

Next year: EVERYBODY raves about the next set. But injuries and all sorts of other things alter it. Certainly injury made a huge different to this group, to 4 or 5 really good players.

 

[Prem17]

Taranto, Scrimshaw, Florent, Venables/Bolton

Make this happen sos.

We just need 5, 8, 13, 25.

Swap one of those names for Powell-Pepper, or add another pick and I'm happy with that